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Hey Gary, I just saw Brett on A.W.P. He doesn't sound very good. Is He loossing His voice and has He ever blogged before?
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Andrew,

Brett has a rather bad cold. He is trying everything to get rid of it and I am sure he will be happy when the weekend gets here.

Gary

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You have a tough job! I can see how weather forecasting can drive you nuts, especially when you're so driven to be right and feel a strong responsibility to your viewers! Hang in there! - mt
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Mike,

Yes, forecasting weather can be very frustrating. And, even when you are right there are many of your critics that still say you are wrong. It is tough. We have the most accurate forecast in Kansas City, Weatherate.com shows that we are so far in the lead again this year, and for four years in a row now. We try to have the best weather information on the air and in the blog every day. So, the pressure is on....always.

Gary

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Gary,

After reading your theory for a while now I remembered the warm days we had @ the beginning of Oct and i remember the moisture afterwards so that will be a nice trend for the upcoming year, if it comes to fruition.

BTW, where can i find your winter forecast - I saw the 25" of snow but what about the temps. Of course, if i followed the oct pattern it will be very warm and dry, then cool and wet followed by a cool and dry spell that sees a slow warm up and starts the cycle over again. We are just waiting for the cycle to complete to get an idea on the time frame for these cycles correct?

Thanks - Brad
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Brad,

The weather pattern may have begun right around October 1st this year. But, the cycle isn't defined yet.

Gary

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Gary,

So does this mean that we could have a possible 46-day cycle?

Second, you mention "our first arctic front" -- is this an example of the ones you predicted in your winter forecast? If so, how can it be an arctic front if it doesn't (or barely) drops our temperatures to the freezing level? Wouldn't it have to be much more cold?

And last, just wanted to again say how much we enjoy the weather on KSHB. The Turkey cannibalism controversy last night was very funny. At least I thought that it was! It even got a mention on the news this morning by Brett before the Today show. I still think he's eating a turkey sandwich. Who eats ham on Thanksgiving anyways? Its TURKEY DAY!

Tim in GW
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Tim,

It isn't necessarily "our" first Arctic front and it won't count as one of the "blasts" unless it really gets here. But, it is up there and developing now.

It may be a 46 day cycle, but the real cycle shows up in a few weeks. Let's keep this in our thoughts, but it may be a bit different once this weather pattern kicks into gear which is happening right now.

Gary

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As the weather pattern starts to become clearer, any chance there will be somewhere on the KSHB weather site that will give basic info about what our weather looked like on previous days? ie - hi/lo/did it rain? snow? etc. from Oct. 1st and on. Not tons of stats - just a general idea. I'm curious what the more exciting weather was like after Oct. 6 to get an idea of what COULD be ahead. I know it's not perfect, and it could always change, but it's fun to kind of track this weather pattern with you. Just an idea. Or, if you direct us to a link that gives a good, quick snapshot of our historical weather info...
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Carri,

We will try to add some of this into the blog this week.

Gary

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Wow... I am usually befuddled by the maps you guys use to identify storms and low pressure centers. I'm usually confused by what these things mean and how they interact.

Looking at the low pressure centers (I'm assuming thats what they are) to the east, west and north it makes perfect sense that warm air would rush up into the plains. My question is are we looking at record breaking heat once ever month and a half or so? It just feels so unnatural.
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Shawn,

But it isn't that unusual. It would be unusual for it to stay warm for more than a few days.

Gary

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So if you are tracking an artic front, then you must be tracking any moisture coming with it. Anything to get excited about yet or are you still using that dreaded word - patience?

Leonard
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Leonard,

There is some potential next week for a winter storm. It is gradually trending in the right direction, but something is still wrong.

Gary

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Hi Gary,

Are you any bit concerned that forecast soundings are only showing mixing to about 2500' and, even though 850 air is 14 C, it won't mix out? I'm afraid a shallow mix will leave highs in the mid to upper 60s. Guidance is having a hard time (obviously with climatology) but even the raw NAM and GFS don't pick up on low to mid 70s.

Thanks! -Lance
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Lance,

I am concerned about how deep the mixing will be. But, it is extremely dry and with a bit deeper mixing combined with superadiabatic heating near the surface we should creep into the 70s. Today, it is already in the low 60s at 1 PM. But, max temps are reached around 3 PM at this time of the year so the shorter days could keep us near 70. It is ideal warming so we will stick to it.

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I see more rain symbols on the 7-day, but of course I will wait, because this "severe clear" is tough to break it seems.
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

Yes, you are right! It is tough breaking a dry spell. And, we are in yet another one. So, let's see how early next week pans out. This is why I only went 20%.

Gary

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Gary:
Even with the possibility of a "wetter" portion of the cycle in a week or two or three, the evidence on this new cycle is rather dismal for a truly dynamic pattern. I drew weather maps on Oct 16-17 or so, then again 5 days later, and then again around the 27th of October, but nothing significant, or even close to it since. (November will end with a desert-like .10" here at my place at Blue Springs - parched would be the proper adjective for this epoch of the pattern). If it is cycling, then the rest of the cycle would produce a "wetter" episode of 2 weeks or so, followed by a month or more of excessively dry conditions - possibly a tad better than last year, but possibly worse as well. I would rather see the wet be the month, and the dry be the two weeks in length. THAT would tell me the drought long-term is finally breaking. I do not think, as of now, that it is, and this really bodes ill for Spring if nothing changes to prove to me that the new pattern will be a lot different than last years.

So far, we've had brief bouts of good systems (3 in number in October) followed by weeks and weeks of NW to WNW flow - an abysmally dry regime this time of the year.

The positive part of this new pattern's seeming warmth is that the Natural Gas bills are going to be low for my household, and that is a good thing. I wonder if the only maps worth drawing this year will come from those October systems, which were very nice indeed!!!

I do enjoy sunshine if it isn't gonna rain - just no teases please - either storm, or leave us mild and sunny, no cloudy blah weather please, though I know that will come as well.

Have a happy Turkey day - let the tryptophan flow!!!

Dog
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Dog,

Happy Thanksgiving to you too!

Let's see what happens during the next few weeks. If this more active part of the pattern doesn't produce above average precipitation then we are in trouble.

Gary

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Afternoon Gary, yes I have just looked at some long range maps that go out 7-10 days from other weather sources and the temperature plummets next week to highs in the upper 20's to mid 30's. Only two out of the five weather maps I looked at show any chance of precipitation. I know you all are tracking the Artic Air too! Thanks, Michael/Topeka
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Michael,

The cold air mass is developing in the right spot for it to blast us. The GFS and European models both are having a hard time with this cold air. Maybe something will hit me in the next day or so and I will get a feeling for this. I just don't have one yet as this pattern continues to show itself.

Gary

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Gary,

I am just getting caught up on your blog after missing a few days and I was reading a few days ago about you wanting ideas for marketing your vastly superior forecasting abilities.

I don't think advertising during your newscast/weathercast is going to do much for you because the people who watch you are the only ones watching. So, it seems that you need to do something outside of the newscast time-period.

First off, I don't know anything about the cost of my suggestion. But, it seems to me that you need to keep stats of the accuracy of the other stations. I know that WeatheRate does this, but their final "accuracy number" takes too much explanation. My suggestion is this: you could get a billboard or put a commercial together (shown at various times throughout the day) that shows how many days of the past month (or 2 months, or year, etc.) you have been within 3 degrees vs. the other 3 stations. You could list them out individually (anonymously) or just group them together into one average.

For example -

Question:
During the official Summer season of 2006, what % of 10pm weather forecasts were within 3 degrees of the actual high temperature?

Answer:
KSHB - 95%
The other 3 stations - 75%

or

KSHB - 95%
other station #1 - 50%
other station #2 - 80%
other station #3 - 85%.

What it boils down to is that people need to see stats. They want to see numbers because numbers can be verified. It seems that everyone SAYS they are the best or most accurate, so people just tune that out. You've got to prove it with numbers.

My 2 cents is up.
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Kraig,

Yes! We must do outside promotion. At Arrowhead stadium, on billboards, radio, newspaper, etc. We just haven't had much of an effort in this area. I will bring up some of these ideas in our next meeting.

Gary

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Since weather is related to heating/cooling, i tend to watch the natural gas prices... so in a brief comment to Dog, it looks like everyone's bill will be lower even if the temps go arctic on us. natural gas future prices for the Jan. - Mar. heating season are about $8.5/MMBTU. last year it was closer to $10-$11 at this time even with the mild weather (Katrina and Rita effects). so we'll all likely pay less for the gas we use this winter. plus, there are no storage issues or major disruptions in the gulf which will keep prices moderate. go to the DOE's web site if you want to keep tabs on it. reports issued weekly.

have a great, safe, thanksgiving everyone! - mt
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Mike,

Happy Thanksgiving to you too! Let's see what happens next week.

Gary

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What happen to near 70 temps today? I was looking foward to doing yard work in those temps. Oh well, I'll settle for low 60s for this time of year.
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Sarah,

Actually, if you would have been working outside it was 70 degrees in the sun!!!!!

Sorry.

Gary