KSHB: Weather: Action Weather Blog: Wild weather week

Has our patience paid off? It has been a difficult 30 days with dry and disappointing weather. Will this frustration end as early as this afternoon or evening?

1) A cold front that has been slowly sliding across the Kansas City metro area this morning. Where will this stall? This plays a factor into who will get heavy rain later on today and this evening.

2) Powerful storm digging further south into the base of the developing western trough. We talked about this last week and I said that if a storm on the southern end of this trough is a bit stronger then we could have a significant storm. This appears to be happening.

3) The Arctic airmass which will blast its way through us late Wednesday into Thursday. This is likely more than just an Arctic front, but one of the expected Arctic outbreaks that we talked about in our winter forecast. It could be very cold for a few days.

These are the main factors that we will be watching. Today, the front made it through KCI airport before 6 AM. But it is stalling which makes today's temperature forecast extremely difficult. And, this front will move north tonight and we go right back into the warmer moist air overnight into Tuesday. Rain will likely be developing today and becoming quite heavy in some areas. Unfortunately it could end up just north of a few of us and the frustration could continue. If the front can push just a bit further south this morning then we could all be in on the heavier rain later today. And we need it.

Then we concentrate on the major winter storm that could affect us Wednesday night and Thursday. Yes, it could be a major winter storm. But, since it is two to three days away let's see if we are getting excited about it on Tuesday and Wednesday. Two days from now it will look different.

The above map shows the deepening trough into the southwest United States. The red X is the main upper level storm near Las Vegas Nevada. We will have to watch this closely. I like the way this looks and the trend is for it to track into Arizona, New Mexico and then eject out across Missouri on Thursday. With the Arctic front also a major factor this could be a significant snowstorm for someone. Below, you can see the surface map valid noon on Wednesday. The Arctic front is forecast to be just northwest of us with rain and thunderstorms forming along it. We could be in the 60s Wednesday morning and in the 20s by evening.

So, we have an exciting day today, Tuesday looks fascinating as we warm into the 70s, then Wednesday is the dramatic day of transition, and Thursday we could see our first snow. Wow, this could be one of our most interesting weeks in years. Or, could we be left extremely frustrated again. Don't you think we are due?

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Our turn for a winner!! Let's hope it comes together. Trend appears good right now. We're counting on you to bring us a good one. All on your shoulders now. No pressure...Just teasing...Starting to look better though. Maybe a fun week ...Let's hope. Have a good Monday.

Matt Maisch
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Matt,

Yes, it is looking rather exciting. Let's see if we get the rain later today first. Usually, when it starts to happen and we can "break the ice" then everything will follow. It should be our turn, but will Mother Nature be fair?

Gary

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Gary:

The NWS is calling for freezing rain Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. I hope that they are wrong and we are still looking at a chance of snow. Are you seeing anything in the data that would indicate a chance of ice?
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Greg,

You can't have freezing rain if it is in the 60s. The front will likely be slower, but then Wednesday night and Thursday could see all kinds of precipitation. It is still early.

Gary

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Gary,
This storm seems to be falling into place. I bet that we are going to have some type of wintery mix. I say this just because on Tuesdays and Thursdays I communte from KC to Warrensburg to school, so it would be my luck that I have to drive in the icky weather. Have a great day tracking this storm.
Shannon
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Shannon,

It will be a great week of tracking these changes. But, will it produce?

Gary

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I am loving this blog Gary! The forcasts are so different between all of the news stations, accept agreeing it will be cold. I even heard a forcast today on a topeka station calling for severe weather in NE Kansas!! I know something is going to give eventually and when you here so many different forcasts- something is bound to
happen in a big way for someone near by- I hope its Mclouth KS this time! I have vacation this week starting Tuesday- and actually have weather to look forward to! I hope it materializes. It has been so boring in that particular location for sometime- When everyone was getting severe weather during the summer, it was like there was a dome over that whole area, on certain days it looked like we were in the eye of a storm and it was torture!! - so hopefully some excitement soon and I LOVE snow.... so atleast you give some hope, and you are BY far the best at predictions! Not holding you to this though, because I know what you go through, putting a winter forecast together. Thanks for the hope-or brief excitement that I have been lacking so much of in the weather department lately! Have a great WEEK and have fun with this!
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Brett,

How do you guys pronounce Mclouth? Is it Mclooooth, or Mclowwwth?

Yes, this is exciting. Maybe the wheel of weather is finally falling on our spot?

Gary

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Gary,

It is Mclowwwth... usually the little town with tornado sirens blowing non stop in the spring. So if you are on the air next spring- you could be the only meteorologist pronouncing it correctly.
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Brett,

Thank you! Have a great week off. It should be a fun weather week.

Gary

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Any early thoughts on the weather for the Big 12 champ. game on Sat? I think my Huskers will take care of your Sooners!!! Should be a good one!
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Jon,

There may be snow on the ground and it will be very cold Saturday, but the sun should be out.

And, the Sooners will wipe out Nebraska!

Gary

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Hey Gary does it look like there will be any winter precip down here in Appleton City and could we see a winter storm the NWS has already used the words major winter storm for our entire outlook area so im just wondering what you think now.
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Daniel,

Yes, it looks like a major winter storm and centered near Appleton City. Let's see what it looks like tomorrow. It is changing every day.

Gary

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Gary,
"IF" it does snow do you think it will still be here on saturday? My son is turning 9 and i would LOVE for him to have a white birthday. I sure hope so. I hope you have a great week forcasting and it keeps you on your toes. I know you enjoy that,LOL. Thank you so much for all of your hard work! Danie
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Danie,

If it snows then it will be on the ground Saturday. But, let's get it to snow first. Right now we are still waiting for our first rain drop from the storm.

Gary

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Gary, the latest GFS is still looking good for us!! Of course, we will not know anything for sure until it happens. I have a question regarding the calculation of liquid precip to snow. For example, the 6 hour precip forecast on the 12UTC GFS run for 84 is showing around .25 of precip. How does that calculate into snow amounts? The answer to that question might be to lengthy to answer here, but if you get a chance, a brief synopsis would be appreciated. Keep up the great work and once again, thanks for having this forum!

Mike P
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Mike,

The typical ratio to use is 10-1. So .25" liquid should be about 2.5 inches of snow. But, we would be in the comma head. And, quite often the models WAY underdo the precipitation in this part of the storm. So, it may say .25" but 1.00 inch could easily happen. Just something to think about.

Gary

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It will leave us depressed. This thing will dig too far south leaving us out of most of the back end precip, and just giving us cold.

Ok...now that I got that out of the way, its still too soon. I hate the GFS, so I will wait another day to take another look.

Something will be around us, but I am voting for some light drizzle and light flurries toward nightfall.

No accumulation in the metro.

Oh..and if this storm misses us...Christmas is canceled this year! Bah Humbug!

Time is getting closer, Gary...when will bloggers unite?
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Scott,

Of course it could go south. Can you imagine 15 inches in southern Missouri and nothing here? Anyway, I will disagree with you right now as everything is pointing towards us getting hit. I am a bit nervous about it because it is so close.

I will pick a date for our bloggers meeting very soon.

Gary

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Keep up the good work Gary and weather team. It rained here in Topeka about two hours ago. I guess we will see about how the storm reacts. I hate to see ice. So if we get some precip now would there be a chance of a storm around Christmas if this patterns stays recycling? Michael/Topeka
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Michael,

I am not sure about Christmas at this moment. Let's get some nice rain out of this storm and hopefully some snow, then we can look ahead.

Gary

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I feel the excitement I feel in the springtime. So many times I was disappointed in spring, hopefully this time it will pay off. I have a feeling it will and I am hoping it will just because its been a long time since I have seen you that excited on the air about the weather.
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Keri,

Let's hope we are truly excited about it by 10 PM Tuesday night. I can see many things that could go wrong with this set up.

Gary

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Gary, my Longhorns blew it, I bought tickets last week thinking the horns will be their. Im taking my son on his 7th birthday to the game. Oh well Ou players are all Texans anyway. What will the weather be.
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Michael,

The weather will be cold Saturday. But, I think it will be dry! I can't believe Texas lost at home to A & M.

Gary

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This one is a mess. 15" in southern MO and none here HAS happened. Happened Christmas 2002 to be exact. I was in Branson at the time and nobody went anywhere for several days.

No forecast bets from me. This one is too chaotic for anything other than hour-to-hour forecasting.
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David,

Exactly! This is hard to do, but we must wait and see how it looks on Wednesday before we go crazy with this storm. It could easily miss us.

Gary

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Gary,
The 12Z GFS seems to continue to slow down the cold front and the storm that develops to the south of us. Also the thickness levels are not as cold as I would like. I thought this was supposed to be an arctic cold front? The 12Z does give us good QPF around .5 with thickness levels around 528-534mb. This could get interesting if the cold air is present.
Devin
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Devin,

It isn't the thickness that defines the Arctic airmass. It is how cold it is near the surface.

Gary

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Yeah! Snow! Love the blog. I have become addicted to reading it everyday. I love reading your thoughts and insight behind the forecast. Keep up the great work. You are by far the greatest meterologist in KC! BTW...it should really mean something...I am an OSU Cowboy alum and I still give YOU an OU grad kudos....hmmmmmm. Please don't mention Saturday's game. I am still sore about it.
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Carrie,

I won't mention it! But, the Sooners gave you chances.

Thanks for the kind comments. We will be forecasting this storm accurately, but we are going to be careful as it will look differently in a couple of days.

Gary

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IF, which I understand is a big IF, we get snow, how much could we be looking at? What is the latest update? The rain has officially started here in Gardner. Is that a good sign if we are wanting snow?
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Erin,

Yes, we broke the ice with the rain. And, it looks like another round is likely tonight, then a rather wet round on Wednesday. The snow......that is more difficult. I am not going to discuss accumulations yet.

Gary

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Gary,
Could we be looking at a storm like the one we had last year were it snowed about 15" in one night. Could this be a bust or are you leaning on the snowy side.
Thanks.
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Jeff,

It can't be a bust if we haven't forecasted it yet. I know you don't really mean it but do you see what happens. If we are truly forecasting a big storm and then it misses us then this is a bust. We aren't forecasting it yet.

Gary

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Gary, the big question, are we going to get an ice storm that well knock out power and strand us for a week? thank you in advance for your answer craig , the softball tourney director
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Craig,

Probably not as it would hopefully change to snow before any major problems develop. But, then again, let's see how it sets up. Sometimes these storm systems completely miss us. This one is taking direct aim on Kansas City at this time.

Gary

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Gary - .05" so far - only .15 needed to reach my threshold of drawing a wx map for this system - if it does turn out good, perhaps more than two - we shall see. The upper trof appears to be getting deeper per the 17z SPC Compmaps 500 mb, so that looks interesting.

Later, Dog
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Dog,

Another nice band of rain is heading our way. You will be drawing some maps this week.

Gary

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Hi Gary,
Since there will such a dramatic cold front colliding with so much warm, moist air, what are the chances for any severe thunderstoms in the midwest tomorrow or Wed.?

Also, we recently switched to Dish network...what is the Weather Plus channel for us now? Kathleen
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Kathleen,

I am not sure what we are on the Dish network. Weather Plus may not be on the sat networks yet.

Gary

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Gary,
This is looking very interesting, I am starting to get excited. Trying not to of course, but hmmm. What do I do. I will have to let you know my forecast that I am going for as of right now
Doug
KOAMTV
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Doug,

I will talk to you later Doug! Let's see what we feel on the new data tonight.

Gary

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So by major winter storm are you saying big amounts of snow or is ice a possibility as well? Assuming of course this thing does not dig so far south we miss it entirely!

Leonard
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Leonard,

There are a lot of possibilities, but if it still is taking aim on us on Tuesday then we can start to think amounts.

Gary

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We had a nice thunderstorm in St. Joseph around 11 in the morning!
This next storm looks neat but if K.C. is on the edge St. Joe will probably get missed, but maby we will still get a decent "flurry":), Looks like a strong frontal system though.
Nick (watching the models) in St. Joe!
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Nick,

Don't hug the models. Sometimes they are not very nice. You could still be in it.

Gary

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Hello Mr. Lezak whats the chance of leavenworth seeing some snow this week?
What form of precip will fall Wednesday, will it change to a wintry mix or stay as rain?
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Ben,

I think Wednesday is all rain, but let's see how cold it is right behind the Arctic front. It could make late Wednesday quite interesting.

Gary

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Gary,
Off the subject of this storm because I don't want to jinx anything with it. I was just curious how low the Missouri River is from normal. We can see it out our windows from downtown and it is really low. Just curious to know how low it is compared to normal.
Thanks
Shannon
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Shannon,

I saw that the rivers are low as well. I will have to check. Let's get a wet storm across the plains and it has to help.

Gary

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Gary,
I saw on your 7-day that you put a 50% chance for snow on Thursday. Is it possible that we could have snow on that day? Are you leaning for yes or no? And finally, how much snow MAYBE?

Alden
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Alden,

I don't even want to mention accumulations as we can talk all we want. Let's discuss accumulations tomorrow if it still looks like it. At this time I lean towards it snowing on Thursday.

Gary

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Hang tough Gary..so far you have done a great job not showing your excitement! If..if the comma head hits...WHOOHOOOO..but...not sure yet.

That being said...most of the vorts from the SW have dug too far South without the temp in the thickness. This is different..this is arctic, and earlier this year this would have drifted north. But..the jet is strengthening...it might get us this time. I still am waiting until tomorrow to see....

Still think it may be too warm at the surface for any signifcant accumulation.
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Scott,

I am excited, but there are many things that can go wrong. The Arctic front just makes this so interesting.

Gary

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Ok...in doing some research...all bets are off. We are going to get blasted. Looking at the GFS, and some of the others as well as the SPC ensemble. [WOW look at the SPC ensemble!] Pretty cool to see max snow on the loop at

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/

We may even get some training effect on the snow...

The snow gods may smile on us.
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Scott,

Yes, but things change. If we are still having this same conversation Tuesday then we know the trend is still good and I will start getting super excited.

Gary

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Gary,
Your right. The storm hasnt happened yet so it cant be a bust. i dont know what i was thinking. If this storm get its act together by Wednesday night/thursday morning could overland park see accumaltions.
Thanks.
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Jeff,

Yes, if it does what the computer models are saying now.

Gary

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Hello Gary,
Is there still alot of question with this storm? Is it possible we could see nothing?Will the surface temp be warm, or not???
Thanks for your time.
Anne
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Anne,

Concerning snow, it is always possible we could see nothing. But this storm is already producing. Just look at this nice area of rain moving in right now. It is a good sign when a storm starts producing early.

Gary

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Dear Gary,
At what point tomorrow will you start to get excited if the model trends are still looking good? Seems there will be a lot of moisture to work with, plenty of lift, and hopefully cold air in place! PLEASE let it snow!!!!!!!
Keep up the great work.

Kirk
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Kirk,

I will get excited as soon as I really believe this storm could hit us. I am already a bit excited because of the rain we are getting, but the winter excitement is still on hold until sometime Tuesday or Wednesday. You will be able to tell.

Gary

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By looking at the radar this could be a "May" rain storm event there are thunderstorms(with some good dounpours) and there is even a tornado warning near Enid, OK. Tonight is a neat event even in of itself.
THE DRY SPELL HAS BEEN SMASHED!!!
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

Yes, the dry spell is being squashed!!!!! Let's keep it coming.

Gary

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OK, Gary, I refuse, refuse, refuse, to get excited. HOWEVER, my kids are are already planning on sleeping with their pajamas inside out and spoons under their pillows for the next few nights (to induce a snowday).

My daughter wanted me to ask you about snow lightning or snow thunder. What has to happen to make it thunder or lightning during a snow storm.

Thanks

Jennifer
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Jennifer,

This means you told them about the chance of snow. Uh oh, too early.

Gary

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Hmm.. How about that jet-stream coming up from the southwest? It's not running at any major strength at the moment, but if it intensified, could it pull the storm more to the northeast?

The trough has gone further south than expected, but I have to wonder if it will stay there. I've almost got the feeling that we're going to be well dampened but otherwise disappointed this week.

Oh well, I'll keep scrubbing the rust off the back of my brain and we'll see what happens. :)
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David,

The frustrations begin. But we did get some nice rain so far.

Gary

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Gary,
Are you updating the blog tonight? unfortunately i will miss the weather event because i am stationed at ft. lee. i would appreciate reading your updated analysis on whats happening. keep up the good work! USA!
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Pvt. Murphy,

I will probably update the blog in the morning as there really isn't anything different yet.

Gary

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I'm trying to contain my excitement. I look at it like I look at the Chiefs games. I get really excited if the Chiefs are doing great in the 2nd/3rd quarter (much like where we are with this storm) but sometimes that can lead to a disasterous letdown in the 4th quarter (think about the New York Giants/Tennessee Titans game this week) which leaves me devastated. It's so hard to keep the excitement bottled up when we could get blasted.

What do you do to keep your hopes from getting up?
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Shawn,

We just fumbled twice and threw an interception and are trailing by 17 with 8 minutes to go. So, it is not looking good.

Gary

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Gary,
As of early this morning, the NWS has put out winter storm warnings for the entire viewing area. It seems however, they are making it sound more and more like an ice event. What are your predictions on the type/types of precip that will fall?
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Tyler,

First of all it is a Watch, not a Warning. And, if the latest data is correct then the chance of any freezing rain or snow is slight.

Gary

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Gary,
As of early this morning the NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the viewing area. However, it seems more like they see an ice event. Do you think we will still see snow?
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At this moment it looks like the Watch was issued too early. Let's see how we feel later today. If the latest data is right there is no chance of any accumulating snow.

Gary