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Gary, I have a grandson named Gary,flying in from Milwuakee, WI. is the weather bad up that way and will he make it this am. Actually should be on flight now? My sister wrote snowing in northern Iowa and 2 hour school delay. Winter is showing up in places.
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Ginger,

It is feeling a bit wintery here now too.

*****************
Watched the forecast with my Huskies and they woo hoo'd when they saw the snow forecast. Also saw the 1 - 2 ice storms, we don't like ice storms, we lost power for 10 days with the last big one in 2002.. Keep up the great work Gary..
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Bill,

If we do have ice it doesn't mean it has to be crippling.

Gary

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Hi Gary:
I just printed your winter forecast and will keep it in front of me for the winter. I am glad you put the Minnesota area on the map to. Just south of where I live they have anywhere from 2" to 7" of wet snow this morning. I also noticed I can watch the video of your forecasts, I plan on doing this. The Twin Cities guys really like to play with graphics and some forecasts are so loaded with computer "special effects" you can't see what the weather is going to do. Has anyone thought of going retro, back in time when the weather guys used to use a big black marker and draw the weather systems or fronts on the maps. Now that was entertainment. Some weather guys could really fill those maps up with stuff.
Really enjoy the site.
Rod
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Rod,

In some respects we can do it the old way again by drawing on the maps. Our computer allows us to be very creative, but there is no reason to make it so cluttered. So, we will be drawing, somewhat the old fasioned way but with a new twist.

Gary

Gary,
We watch you every night. We only depend on your forcasts. We would like to invite you to our bi-annual CopperKettle Applebutter Day. It is tomorrow, Nov. 11th from 6:00am to approx. 6:00pm or until we are done. We have chili lunch all day long. We will be cooking down appx. 230 lbs. of apples in a 35 gallon copper kettle. We would love to have you and your dogs come. Feel free to invite someone if you can make it. We live at 8100 Blue Ridge Blvd. Kansas City,MO. 64138. Phone # 816-356-3549. We will be back at our barn and have an acre of fenced in yard for the dogs. We have lots of children here also. We do so hope you can make it some time throughout the day.

Have a wonderful day and thank you for your predictable forecasts.

Suzanne & Don Kahler
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Suzanne,

Thanks for the invitation! And, I am glad you enjoyed the winter forecast. Let's see what happens.

Gary

*********
Was that last part, about the snow... was that sarcastic? or one of those "Anything could happen in Missouri." kind of statement? Just kind of wondering how I should dress.
Thanks.
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Jameson,

There could be a few snowflakes tonight.

Gary

*****************
Good special Gary, for the avg person I think this was very informative. Well put together..kudos to the editor as well.

That being said, I was a bit underwhelmed, but understand the forecast was not geared to me. LOL. I have been seeing the Canadian longwave and the Pacific ridge for the last month. So to me that was a given. I am not sure the Great Lakes longwave will persist. I think it should weaken as the winter evolves and move NE leaving more ridging. This would coinside with the El Nino pattern. I know you don't agree, but we will see how it transpires.

I think the pattern I see falls in line with the GRC as you describe it. About every 5 days you will see some energy come our way, alternating between the Great Lakes longwave sagging and the spitting vorts off the Pacific trough. There is one exception to the pattern every cycle where you will see a vort come in after 2 days opposed to five. This is what we are seeing with today and then again on Sun. Then we will be back into the 5 day cycle until the next hiccup in about 40 days.

All in all, I like the stance of putting your theory and storm guesses on the line. I think we will have a somewhat active season once we get the cold air in place. That will be the key. When will it get cold enough long enough?
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Scott,

There are a lot of questions still. And, the true pattern will show itself in the next few weeks. I have a few concerns, one of which is this 14 day dry spell with no end in sight. But, the Great Lakes low will return more often than you are saying.

Will we truly get Arctic air in here 3 or 4 times like I am predicting? I think so, but we just don't know yet for sure.

I just watched the winter forecast special again. I wish I would have added some more insight, numbers, and possibilities. There is always next year.

Gary

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Hello Mr. Lezak great job on the winter weather special. I really enjoyed it.

Will the storm not be east of us this evening?
Will there be another area of precip late this afternoon/evening.

I hope so, woud like to see some snowflakes.
------------------------
Ben,

Nothing is developing yet. There may be a few snowflakes but not much more.

Gary

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I love it! So when do you think our 1st snowfall is? I hope Thanksgiving!! How bad do you think the Ice storms would be? As great as 02s?
-------------------------
Andrew,

Be patient. I am expecting our first inch of snow before December 15th. I need to pick a date.

Gary

*************
So it appears that the "roulette wheel" has landed in a good spot!
Now, will we cash in????
BTW the radar looks very convetive in Missouri, NEAT!
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

I think the "roulette wheel" ball landed on a good number, but we may have only gotten the rough of 6 which pays 5 to 1. Did it land in our number?
We don't know yet.

Gary

********************
Gary,
I really enjoyed watching your winter forecast. I agree that the ridge off the coast of California is completely different from what occured last winter. However, I am not liking the trend of the models to bring storm after storm into the Gulf of Alaska. However, if a ridge builds in the Pacific, watch out. Cold air would pour out of Western Canada and Alaska into the US. Temperatures in some areas of Alaska have been close to -30F already.
Devin
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Devin,

Hopefully this trend in the northern Pacific is just part of the cycle. This is the amazing thing. It is strong and it appears that it will last forever and we will again be doomed. But, we must believe that it is just part of the cycle. If it is, then it will break down and the colder part of the pattern will come back with some activity. It will be amazing to watch.

Gary

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Gary and Team,
Wow! You guys need a rest! Fabulous report, ton's of work I am sure and very exciting!!!!
Debbie
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Debbie,

Good observation! We are wiped out emotionally. Thanks for your support. Have a great weekend.

Gary

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Gary,
I am having problems watch weather plus online. Windows Media Player is black and says "ready" on it but nothing plays.
I enjoyed your winter forecast last night. Did you get my email from youtube with the april fools commercial?

Have a great day!
David
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David,

I will check into it next week. You may need to remind me if the problem continues.

Gary

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Gary, you never said when you thought we would see snow. Will you give the date you think the first inch of snow will fall after the contest has been closed?
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Ann,

I may give the date tonight, but we may wait until Monday which will be cheating. So, maybe tonight.

Gary

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Hello Mr. Lezak,
If we are going to get more precip where would it start to develop?
To our west towards Concordia?
-----------------
Ben,

I don't see any development, so there probably won't be anything.

Gary

*************
Gary,

Do you see any snow chance yet? I want it to SNOW already!

Andy
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Andy,

The latest GFS just came out with snow here mid next week, but I don't have confidence in it yet.

Gary

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Gary, All of us applaud you for not only being the best meterologist in the region, but to go the extra mile with your winter forecast. You were right last year and I'm sure you'll be within your prediction this year. No other meterologist on TV would even think of doing what you do.
Don't stress out over the next few weeks wondering if your pattern theory is working. We need you here.
The only thing constant with any pattern is change. Determining the beginning and end of that change, is your job. (By the way, I'm still holding out for the winter of 87')_
GaryB
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GaryB,

Thank you so much! Yes, it is unbelievably complex when trying to figure out this pattern and to forecast months in advance. I used to never be a believer of long range patterns until I discovered my theory in the late 80s and early 90s. It is fascinating. But, the exact pattern will show itself soon.

Gary

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Hi Gary! You are my favorite person for the weather reports. I enjoy the pet pics. How do I send one? Have a dog I would love to put on the news.
-------------------------
Carol,

You can email me your pet pick at lezak@nbcactionnews.com

Thank you!

Gary

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Gary - Didn't see your forecast as I worked - hope it works out. One thing we need besides cold air, and that is for the Gulf to be tapped in some degree with the storms, so overrunning/troweling (warm, moist air aloft wrapping to the NW of systems) can occur. Without Gulf moisture, well, I don't know. This last system seemed to just miss us (seen that before), so I hope it isn't a sign of the future.

Closed lows in your scenario, would probably tap the Gulf in some fashion, so that would be nice.
Dog
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Dog,

The only problem is that our wet part of this pattern may be only a smaller part. We will find out in the next few weeks.

Gary

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I really enjoyed your weather forecast. You're pretty humble for someone with the theories and knowledge you have. Thanks for the forecast, I hope you're by far shallow of the actual snow amount. 25" is nice but 75" is a dream.
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Shawn,

Let's hope that 25" isn't just a dream, although I just saw my first snowflake of the season tonight.

Gary

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very important weather update from St. Joe...
*************IT'S SNOWING******************!!
It is actually a decent snow shower!!!
Got to get back to watching it!
An EXCITED Nick in St. Joe!
---------------
Nick,

Thank you! I saw some snowflakes too!

Gary

*************
It is snowing quite nicely in St. Joseph Gary.
WOO HOO!!!
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Kyle,

YES!

Gary

*************
O.K. it's stopped now, it didn't last long but it did happen and that's good enough for now anyway:)
Nick, snowed on( a little) in St. Joe!

Hello Mr. Lezak,
Here in leavenworth we got some sleet.
Never really snowed.
Nice to see the sleet though.

Any chance of snow mid week?

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Gary,

Can you explain why your winter forecast is so different from the NOAA winter forecast? I looked on their website and they are calling for a warmer than normal winter. Last year your initial forecast was right on the money...warmer than normal with little snow or ice so I will be going with your forecast so I prepare myself mentally for the cold.

Will you be making any adjustments to the forecast? Last year you kind of second guest yourself and made some modification to your forecast after we had a small unexpected snowstorm. You are always (99.5%) right so you should never do that, but I was just wondering as I really don't like winter and was hoping for better warmer news.

Thanks,
Vanessa
-----------------------
Vanessa,

Our forecasts are always different from the NWS. And, when talking about the long range they are 100% going with an El Nino winter. And, it is an El Nino winter. We just believe that El Nino's impact is smaller than most think it is here.

I plan on making no changes to our forecast this winter. We made the right forecast last year and we should never have made the adjustment. So, we plan on sticking with it this year. Let's see what happens.

Gary