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Light snow is in the forecast

Good Sunday morning,

Snow is falling over central Kansas this morning and it is trying to rotate our way. The upper low will track just southeast of Kansas City by noon and then the band of snow will try to rotate through us around 3 to 6 PM. There is some question on whether it will all be snow, with perhaps a mixture of rain and snow with this band, but with the temperatures dropping to near 32 degrees this afternoon I think we will see it as mostly snow by later today. It will only last a few hours. But, it is better than nothing. There could be around 1 inch, perhaps a little bit more, on grassy surfaces from KCI northward, with a dusting further south.

We will be watching this closely today! This was about to be only the second December in Kansas City history without a snowflake, but it appears that we will get at least a trace of snow today.

Gary

Posted by at 8:35 AM | Comments (31)

Two Part Rainstorm & Signs of Winter

Well, overnight we had part #1 of our rainstorm. Amounts ranged from around .25" in Lawrence to .65" in Overland Park. Most areas received .30"-.50". It looks like we will have a break with maybe just some scattered showers until about 3 PM. Then from 3 PM to 10 PM it is looking like part #2 will affect us with another solid area of rain with maybe a few T-Storms. An additional .25"-.75" is possible. See map below.

Click to Enlarge

There is also some good news on the GFS for days 10-16. It is looking like the jet stream may lock up with a tall ridge in the eastern Pacific around 140 degrees west latitude. This fits the LRC perfectly for this year as it is 40-43 days after our November 29-December 8 wintry period. So, this means January 10-20 has the real possibility of turning very cold with 1-2 winter events.

Have a Happy New Year!

Jeff Penner

Posted by at 8:46 AM | Comments (21)

Late Friday evening update.....

The GFS and NAM are closer in agreement of taking the upper low near or south or KC. When it passes colder air should rush in. So, I am going to tweak the forecast as I am on in a few minutes. Some snow could fall on this back side Sunday afternoon, evening or Sunday night into early Monday!

Jeff Penner will blog in the morning! Have a great weekend.

Gary

Posted by at 9:52 PM | Comments (4)

Friday night update....rain...Arctic air....things to dicuss

Good evening everyone,

The 18z data is now out. The upper low is very likely going to track within a few miles of Kansas City. Amazing! The last storm actually came right through us as well, and when it did we had .05" with the system as it went through without any moisture to work with. The same thing is likely this time around. As the upper low passes we will likely see a few showers. Also, just like the last storm the heavy rain will occur well ahead of the main upper low.

Click to enlarge

The above map is the 500 mb upper level chart valid Sunday evening, New Year's Eve. The upper low is passing over the state line just south of KC. As it approaches tonight and Saturday will become quite wet. Thunderstorms are almost likely. And, heavy rain should be widespread later tonight through Saturday. I am thinking the rain will come in three waves, with little breaks in between. By midnight Saturday night we will likely get dry slotted and the rain will end. Below, you can see the rain forecast by the latest GFS, which has been having some skimpy amounts with this storm. I buy the latest idea of giving many of us around 1.5" of rain.

Click to enlarge

A snowstorm is materializing across eastern Colorado and western Kansas. We just won't have enough cold air with this storm near the surface to provide any chance of wintery precipitation. This is not the case in the long range. As anticipated, the colder part of this weather pattern we are cycling through is trying its hardest to show up right on schedule close to the 10th of January. The 18z data even has a rather impressive development of an Arctic front. More on this in the coming days. I am hoping it materializes because I think we all could use a shot of real winter. If you have shots of anything else this weekend please remember to have a designated driver.

Gary

Posted by at 4:36 PM | Comments (8)

Stat of the day! And, snow pictures from Colorado....

Good morning,

As the new data is rolling in let's think about a stat that Nick, one of our bloggers, brought up last night. I had forgotten, but this is one of my favorites and will never happen again.

January 1st:

2006..........62 degrees and dry
2005..........62 degrees with some rain
2004..........62 degrees and dry

Wow! It has been 62 degrees on New Year's Day 3 years in a row. Well, the streak has to end this year with a powerful upper low near by and east of us.

I will be blogging about the new data before noon. Below are a couple of pictures from Boulder, CO. I know it will make us all have "winter envy" of those in Colorado, but they are great pictures. A friend sent these to me last night. They had another 8 inches of snow after this picture and they may get another foot before it is over. It is hard to believe isn't it?

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Gary

Posted by at 7:21 AM | Comments (23)

The latest trends

Happy Thursday to everyone,

The latest trends take this complex upper level low right near Kansas City on Sunday night. This is way too far north for us to see any chance of snow, which is questionable anyway. So, where does this leave us? It leaves us with an exciting storm to track and wonder how much rain may fall. It leaves Denver wondering how much snow they will get. And, it leaves us wondering if it will snow ever again, well that is an exageration. Anyway, let's enjoy this storm. It will be fun to watch and it should produce one to two inches of rain. Sometimes we go months without that much rain in one storm. So, this is still exciting, and this is not the final solution yet.

Further down the road the models backed off of the cold potential for around the 10th of January. It is still a ways off so let's see how that looks in a day or two.

Have a great day! I will be working on some special graphics to describe this storm. In the end I think the viewer, you, wants to know when the rain will fall and how much. So, I will try to really zoom in on our local region and show forecast rainfall totals. Does anyone have any other requests for graphics from me for the shows tonight?

Gary

Posted by at 11:10 AM | Comments (44)

Exciting new developments

Good Wednesday evening everyone,

We have a rather exciting storm heading our way. If you are interested in the weather then how can you not enjoy watching this develop. The latest data has the storm tracking south of Kansas City. This is important. First of all it will provide us with a little hope for snow. And, secondly it gives you a better chance of not just one band, but perhaps two or three bands of rain.

Click to enlarge (18z GFS valid New Years Eve showing upper low just south of KC)

Above, you can see the upper low is strong and just south of us. This is still a cut off low, weatherman's woe. So, there is a good chance this will either be further north or, hopefully, further south.

More later, but watch the newscasts tonight. At 10 PM I will have the new data and you will be able to tell if it is growing in excitement or if the trend is not good. It is easy to be sad as it is just not cold enough for snow. But, it is still early and that forecast could become more possible, and it at the very least is a unique storm system that we get to spend days tracking. We haven't had storm systems like this in many years.

Have a great evening. I may make another post after the 10 PM newscast, or I may wait until morning.

Gary

Posted by at 4:32 PM | Comments (22)

Watch out Colorado

Good morning everyone,

I am going to wait until the new data comes out later this morning before I go into detail on this next storm approaching. The energy that is going to produce this storm has just moved inland. This means that the storm hasn't even formed yet. This will happen this afternoon and tonight as an upper low closes off and begins spinning somewhere over the 4 corners states. We have had a new solution every 6 hours with the latest trend of bringing the upper low near Kansas City, so let's wait and see what the new data shows. I will have more around 10:30 AM or so.........

NEW DATA

O.K. The new data is in and it is yet another solution, but we have solution convergence here which means that confidence is growing on the track of this storm.

Click to enlarge (Upper level flow forecast for New Year's Eve morning)

Above is the latest GFS run showing the upper low tracking near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. But will it matter at all? I doubt it. Unless the system ends up in Oklahoma and Arkansas we will be too warm. Warm air wraps into this storm and will keep us near 40 degrees on Sunday and Monday. We have to continue monitoring this, but we must have a cold air source and there isn't one.

At the same time, western Kansas or especially Colorado could have a repeat performance with over 3 feet of snow possible somewhere between Colorado Springs and the Wyoming border. The bullseye is centered near Boulder, CO on the latest data which would become historic for this part of the country if this snowstorm materializes.

So, here we are, jealous of another Colorado snowstorm. It does appear we will get some nice rain out of this system. And, we will continue seeing if there are any trends. If there is any way cold air can get tapped and surge into Kansas then we would be in good shape. I just wonder if this is possible. You don't need to ask what would happen if it goes further south. We will just have to see how this trends.

Have a great day. Remember, we haven't ruled out snow yet, but the chance appears to be rather slim. Let's hope for a nice trend in the models and the storm over the next few days. It has time to change. I wouldn't mind being in Colorado right now though.

Gary

Posted by at 7:12 AM | Comments (8)

A big storm system

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid Thursday at noon)

Good morning everyone,

The above map shows the forecast of a rather large upper level low falling into a southern Rockies trough. This will pull in a lot of Gulf of Mexico air, low level moisture, which will provide the fuel for widespread rain. There is a trend in the models for this to act a bit more like the last big storm. And, possibly take a track similar to the last big storm. This would limit our chance for snow, but Colorado would then be the center of attraction again. I don't have confidence in this track yet. I am hoping for a further south track this time, but this is not the trend at this moment.

We will be tracking this developing storm with some special weather graphics on our newscasts this week. If we get some significant precipitation out of this big storm then it will be our third wet storm in the past month.

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 6:45 AM | Comments (30)

Merry Christmas

Good morning,

On this Christmas morning Mother Nature may have decided on a nice present for us. A storm is forecast to develop over the southern Rockies. It is still a few days away and it is just a system in the Pacific ocean right now. So, let's see how it trends, but there could be a major winter storm over parts of the plains by Friday and Saturday.

I will add to this blog entry tonight after I get to work. Have a great Christmas Day!

Gary

Posted by at 8:03 AM | Comments (12)

Any snow on Christmas?

No! A storm is developing but it isn't becoming a storm until it is well east of us. Look at the map below.

Click to enlarge

You can see the X near Wichita, KS. And the red stream from Nebraska south to eastern Texas. This is vorticity. If vorticity is increasing across a point then we call this PVA or positive vorticity advection. This is one way to cause rising motion in the atmosphere, which would lead to cloud formation and precipitation. Well, this vorticity is diving south and not shifting east over us, thus limiting our lifting and eliminating the chance of snow. Unbelievable. We are in the middle of the upper level trough, just like on November 15th when we had a very similar thing happen. We got nothing out of it last time, and it appears we will get nothing again.

Oh well, we can look ahead in the next few days. Have a Merry Christmas from the NBC Action Weather team!

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 8:34 PM | Comments (22)

Are you a skeptic of my theory?

The weekend has arrived. Santa will begin his journey from the North Pole and I will be tracking him tomorrow night at 10 PM. I will also be doing the 10 PM newscast tonight right after the Chiefs beat the Raiders and try to keep their extremely slim playoff hopes alive. While I am doing the weather tonight will I be predicting a chance of snow on Christmas Day, or explaining how it is extremely close and other parts of Missouri will have a white Christmas?

The storm forming Sunday night and Christmas Day is so identical to the one that occured on November 15th it makes me wonder how the rest of the meteorological community has not discovered what we now know. My theory and the GRC (Gary's Recurring Cycle) has happened again. Remember I believe every year is unique and the pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th and then begins cycling. Every year I wonder, because I haven't proven anything yet (this is why it is called a theory), but more than ever before I know that I have made a major discovery and IT DOES HELP in forecasting long range. Unfortunately it often takes until about late December or early January to learn and really see the cycle before we can project forward and help our forecasts. I have the evidence with years of 500 mb charts to show the cycle. Here is one example that is happening now.

Click to enlarge (72 hour GFS forecast valid Christmas Day)

The above map is the GFS forecast for Christmas Day. The NAM and NGM are not digging the storm enough. This is an upper level storm that rapidly intensifies AFTER it passes us by on Christmas morning. Sometimes a nice band of snow can form with this type of storm system as it moves by, but the last time the storm happened, 40 days ago, we were left high and dry. Each time through the cycle the storms will have similar characteristics but quite often the weather we experience here at the surface will be different. So, there is hope, but I have concerns. Look below at the map from 40 days ago. The similarities are there, and almost identical on the storm over Arkansas and southern Missouri. DO YOU SEE IT! This is just a snapshot in time. It isn't just this one day that is cycling, but the entire weather pattern. We discussed the high likelyhood of this being a 40 day cycle a couple of weeks ago. So, we aren't just pulling this out of a hat. It is happnening.

Click to enlarge (Actual 500 mb chart valid November 15th, 40 days before Christmas)

Let me know if any of you see this. If you have any questions I will answer them. To me this is just fascinating. Each time through the cycle the troughs and ridges will all act the same. Some features will be weaker or stronger in each cycle, but they will all have similar characteristics to that year.

Watch the shows tonight. Jeremy will be doing the 5 PM and I will be doing the 10 PM. Hopefully as this storm develops to our southeast the main digging wave will produce some snow on Christmas morning. The chance is still slight at this time.

Gary

Posted by at 8:26 AM | Comments (19)

Colorado snow pictures and more exciting weather?

Good morning,

Friends of mine in Colorado just sent me some amazing pictures of their snowstorm. They are from Louisville and Boulder just west and northwest of Denver.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge (Smokey, a great dog enjoying the snow)
Click to enlarge

These pictures are amazing. They will have a white Christmas out there, but what are our chances here. There is still a slight chance. An upper level storm is forecasted to dig right over us on Christmas Day. I have seen storm systems like this before that produce 1 to 3 inches of snow. So, we will watch it closely. Right now I would keep the chance at around 20% and let's see if this becomes a bit more impressive as we get closer to Christmas Day.

The models have also trended towards a more exciting pattern coming up. The jet stream seems to be sagging further south and it has all kinds of potential. I don't want to get you too excited yet so let's see if these trends continue.

I am off today and I am on my way to workout. Have a great day and watch our newscasts as our weather team tracks these new developments.

Gary

Posted by at 8:54 AM | Comments (15)

The weather pattern

Good late evening everyone,

It is almost midnight. I am off Thursday and Friday, but I am working the 10 PM newscast Saturday and Sunday. Jeremy will be filling in the next two nights, and then Brett is off next week. Jeremy will also be filling in for him with Jeff Penner working a week from Saturday night.

We just experienced a rather significant December storm. 20 to 30 inches has fallen across eastern Colorado including the Denver metropolitan area. A huge snowstorm even by their standards. Our region had rather widespread 1 to 1.3 inch rainfall amounts. This will provide our ground with very nice soil moisture. Western Kansas had a lot of precipitation over the wheat fields which is also a nice drink for that area.

What is next? Winter begins Thursday evening and I feel like it is almost over. This weather pattern has been influenced by El Nino. But, as I have said in my theory, El Nino only influences the pattern that would have existed anyway. I believe we are in a 40 day cycle give or take a few days. It seems, though, to be right on the 40 day period. If we look at the first cycle and project forward then we can look for some interesting features.

Expect at least two more very cold stretches, but they probably won't last very long. One should occur close to January 10th to 12th and last a few days, then another one around 40 days later or around February 20th to 25th. This will be a test to the theory as this is one of the stronger features in the cycle. There will likely be some near record breaking warm spells in between. As the jet stream reaches its peak strength in January the weather pattern will likely act a bit differently, and then when the jet stream energy begins weakening as spring approaches, the pattern could take on another identity. So, this is important............THE SAME PATTERN CAN AND WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SPECIFIC WEATHER that we experience near the surface. There will be potential for February and March to have these disfunctional storm systems get more of their act together. If it doesn't turn cold in January I will be very surprised. But, there are always interesting twists.

Now, this storm that we are experiencing definitely has its act together, but there have been many others that have just slid by.

When we get the colder weather in January we can look for the strong potential of one very strong winter storm. KCI, Omaha, and Des Moines are all waiting for their first one inch of snow. This is becoming a "wow" stat.

I may get to your blog comments Thursday, but I may just get away as the weather has worn me out. This was a great storm. I would love to have some snow soon, but at least the ponds are filling up.

Gary

Posted by at 12:00 AM | Comments (26)

Bands of moderate to heavy rain

Good Wednesday morning everyone,

The big upper level low is moving towards southwestern Kansas. Blizzard warnings are in effect today from Denver to the Kansas Colorado border. Someone could see over 2 feet of snow out there. For us, rain moved in around 2 AM and we are already approaching 1/2 inch in some areas. Many spots could end up with over one inch by sometime tonight when the dry slot will shut off the rain by around midnight.

Later today I will blog a little about what may happen in the next few weeks based on my theory.
Enjoy the rain! Let us know your rainfall totals by sometime this evening.

Click to enlarge (500 mb valid Friday morning)

The above 500 mb map shows the upper level flow around 18,000 feet valid Friday morning. The upper low is forecast to track just northwest of Kansas City with the Vort max trackin just south of Kansas City. This may be close enough to bring us a band of showers Thursday night, but temperatures may still be near 40 degrees. This will make it difficult to see any snow. There could be a mixture, and we will still have to watch this closely.

Gary

Posted by at 8:04 AM | Comments (30)

Rain is developing near the Oklahoma border

Good evening everyone,

It is Tuesday evening. A very strong and unusual storm is heading our way. It is unusual in the fact that it will very likely move into southwestern Kansas and then stop moving or spin around for about 12 hours and then resume its movement tracking right near Kansas City Thursday night. As it approaches rain is rapidly developing over Oklahoma and heading this way. There is a 100% chance of rain on Wednesday and a possibility of a few spots getting more than one inch of rain and this should be widespread where everyone gets at least a half of an inch.
As the upper low moves by Thursday night we could see a mixed bag of precipitation with snow, sleet and rain all mixed together. If it is cold enough some areas could see some accumulation late Thursday night, but the models are saying the temperatures will be around 38 degrees which would be too warm. So, let's see how this looks on Wednesday.

Then we look ahead to the Christmas Eve storm. I know a lot of other forecasts have ruled this out, but there is a storm and we all should know to never rule the possibility of the storm taking a different track. Only one model this morning went for the Christmas Day storm, the Canadian model. It is really a strange set up, and I still keep this as a very slight chance. But, we must pay attention until we can rule it out. I haven't done so yet.

And........the next three weeks still show promise for more chances. Remember we aren't getting missed by everything. We have a nice rain storm on Wednesday. Let's try to enjoy every minute of it. My car needs a good washing.

Watch the 10 PM newscast tonight. I have a super show built and ready to describe this rare night of weather.

Gary

Posted by at 9:14 PM | Comments (16)

Rain is a day away!

Good morning,

The storm, strengthening over Arizona this morning, is taking aim on our region. It will become a vertically stacked storm system, which means the upper low will end up almost directly above the surface low. This will slow the storm down and then it will be fascinating to watch it wander, like a slow moving hurricane, across Kansas. It will sort of have a mind of its own for about a day or two. Along and just north of the track of the upper low is the location for a chance of snow. It will be tough to forecast so let's see where this system tracks. It will likely come very close to our area Thursday night.

In the mean time it is exciting anyway. The first part of this storm will be rain. There is a chance we could end up with a nice soaking with an inch or rain or even a bit more possible. I think most of us will at least have a half of an inch of rain. This is a lot for one storm at this time of the year as we average just over one inch of liquid precipitation during December.

Below is a series of maps with the two storm systems that will be affecting the area.

Click to enlarge (36 hour 500 mb valid Wednesday at noon)

Click to enlarge (60 hour 500 mb valid Thursday at noon)

Click to enlarge (96 hour 500 mb valid Friday night)

Above, notice the upper low from Wednesday to Thursday moves very slowly. We will be in the dry slot of the storm Wednesday night through most of Thursday and then as the storm moves closer to us and right overhead on Thursday night we have the chance of some more precipitation. Also, notice storm #2, and on the last map I pointed arrows towards an EXTREMELY important but subtle feature. There is a little wave that tries to drop into the trough near Montana and heads south. If this feature can do this then it will force storm #2 to eject further north and then we will see snow on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day, but if that feature that I am pointing too doesn't get involved into that developing trough we will be left frustrated as we could still be in the trough but with no snow for Christmas. The GFS is all alone on this solution. It is very close, but I lean in the direction of it not happening at this point. And this is why we have just a slight chance of snow in our 7 day.

Another storm is showing up as storm #3 due in between Christmas and New Years. Can you see how close we are to having an extremely exciting weather pattern? So, once again, will we be left frustrated or will we, in 7 days, say wow, I can't believe that happened? Let's make sure we enjoy this first storm. It will produce some nice rain and then perhaps even more. Don't just take it for granted. We are going to have some exciting weather. A good start to this stretch heading our way.

More later on. Have a great day! Watch the newscasts tonight at 5, 6, and 10 and then tomorrow morning with Brett. We will be working on some special weather graphics to describe this storm system. This is one of the things I have pride in, putting the show together to make it exciting, but informative to the viewer.

Gary

Posted by at 6:39 AM | Comments (21)

Interesting twist on the new data

Good evening everyone,

The latest model runs have come out with a further south solution and a rather strong storm system. The latest track takes the upper low across northern Missouri. This would be close enough where we would have to consider some snow bands developing as the upper low moves by. But, ONLY if it gets this close to us. Watch the newscasts tonight and I will monitor this situation closely.

What goes hand and hand with this situation could be a longer duration rain event on Wednesday. The closer we are to the upper low the wider the rain band will be. So, this could continue to grow in excitement, but only if these trends continue.

The upper low has just formed. So, finally the models will have a storm to track. Until the past few hours the models were creating the storm and then tracking it. So, this is why we now have the opportunity for other better solutions.

Have a great evening and I will update this in the morning and try to answer your blog comments as fast as I can get to them.

Gary

Posted by at 4:23 PM | Comments (22)

Rain this week & Christmas weather

Good Monday morning,

The weather pattern is cycling right through on around a 40 to 42 day period. A storm approaches us on Wednesday. I don't like the trends with this storm as it is now obvious that it will track well north and west of us. This will create a race in time between a large area of rain with some thunderstorms, and the dry slot (A dry slot is a zone of dry (and relatively cloud-free) air which wraps east- or northeastward into the southern and eastern parts of a storm system). By the time the storm is lifting out a large area of rain will likely be moving our way on Wednesday. If we can get it started early then we have a chance of getting close to one inch of rain, but I fear that we will have a smaller window of opportunity to give us a soaking.

Click to enlarge

Above you can see the 500 mb forecast for Wednesday at noon. This clearly shows the upper low well to our west northwest and moving northeast. This storm could produce a lot of snow in Colorado and New Mexico.

Then, we can see below the 500 mb forecast for Christmas Eve. There is a storm, capable of producing snow forecast to develop as it moves by on Sunday night. We must watch this closely, but this storm is very similar to one that formed 40 days before it on November 15th. That storm somehow missed us. We had a lot of clouds but it went by dry. The same thing could happen again. You can see the upper level low forming on Christmas Eve. We can hope for an interesting twist, but this season every interesting twist has pretty much left us dry and frustrated.

Click to enlarge

Overall, this weather pattern will continue to be a mostly dry and warm one with a few minor exceptions. The real test will come in around 20 days when the one time we had very cold air and the big storm. This should occur around January 7th to 11th give or take a few days.

Let's hope, in the mean time, that when we do have some rain that we get a lot. It won't surprise me if we get under 1/2 inch of rain Wednesday. Hopefully we can get into a very heavy band and end up with more.

Have a great week. Jeff Penner is off this week and I will have many more responsibilities, but I will keep the blog updated!

Gary

Posted by at 6:25 AM | Comments (14)

A Long Strange Trip...

Finally! After a month and half of living in temporary housing my family finally moved into a 'permanent' place this week. I spent the better part of this week getting ready to move, and then finally made the move Thursday Night - Friday. The drive from Madison to KC was memorable. I saw one very bright meteor courtesy of the Geminids meteor shower just west of Dubuque, IA. If that wasn't enough I was able to view the Northern Lights for several hours while driving across Iowa. Since I've lived in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan my entire life I have had the opportunity to see the Northern Lights at least 10 times...if not more. After being in transition for a month and a half it will be nice to finally have a place to call home.

Now onto some thoughts about the weather. Today was a record tying day at KCI. The high temperatures reached 67 degrees...tying the record that was set back in 1933. A cold front dropping south has already switched the winds at KCI(as I write) and will continue to drop south over the next 12 hours. Sunday will be about 20 degrees cooler than Saturday, but still above average! The storm system for the middle of next week still looks like it will bring KC rain. The 18Z GFS did something a little odd...it moves the upper low over the area and gives us a little snow into Friday morning. Keep in mind I said a little. The 6Z & 12Z runs did not do this. We'll have to see how the next couple of runs handle things. If the snow remains in the GFS and other models begin to pick up this feature then we'll POSSIBLY have to up the chances of a 'White Christmas'. Otherwise, the odds look very small of having snow on the ground by the 25th.

I know a lot of people want snow(especially people that missed out on November 30), but we'll continue to track the progress of the storm for mid-week and the upper low position for Thursday Night-Friday. Until then enjoy the mild temperatures and the Chiefs game on NBC Sunday Night!

Posted by jnelson at 6:57 PM | Comments (12)

A Solution We Can Count On

Well, all of our latest computer data the GFS, European, Canadian and UKMET models have converged on a solution of taking the storm for next week way to the north of KC. It looks like it will track from Arizona to South Dakota and then east to Minnesota. This means if everyhting comes together, we could get .50" of rain on Wednesday. There is very little chance of the track changing. See map below.

Now, is that it for a "White Christmas?" No, there is a system to watch around the 25th, but right now it looks weak.

This map is valid Noon Thursday.

Click to Enlarge

We also must talk about the cold front for Sunday. The latest data just came in and shows the front 75 miles south of KC by early morning Sunday. This means Sunday is cloudy with temperatures in the 40s. We may also have an extended period of drizzle for much of Sunday into Sunday night.

Posted by at 8:05 AM | Comments (8)

More solutions than we can count

We have been tracking a storm for next week the last 5 days. We have seen so many solutions, it is hard to get a handle on what is going on. The latest data now has the storm tracking from Arizona to North Dakota! (See map below) This would mean a few hours of showers here next Thursday. It would be nice to see the storm track further south, south of KC. This would bring us copious amounts of rain, maybe ending as wet snow.

The bottom line is that nothing is set in stone. So Stay Tuned!

Have a great weekend!

This is valid next Wednesday.

Click to Enlarge

The new data came out Friday evening and it is about as bad as it can get. Gary and I just can't believe what we are looking at. This weather pattern just doesn't want to produce anything unless you are in Seattle.

Jeff

Posted by at 4:23 PM | Comments (10)

Record warmth, a storm, and the northern lights

Good evening everyone,

The models are trending back to more of a storm next week. And, we may set a record on Saturday. The record high on Saturday is 67 degrees. If it is sunny then I think we will break the record for the day.

Now, back to our next storm system. The ECMWF, UKMET, Canadian model, and now the GFS have trended back to more of a storm. So, like any storm system let's just wait and see how we feel tomorrow. Yesterday we fantasized about 3 to 5 inches of rain. Today we downgraded to almost nothing, and now reality may be somewhere in between.....we hope.

I will be doing my chance of a white Christmas on the newscasts tonight. Last night I started with a 3% chance. Will we go up or down tonight? You better watch.

Glen in Trenton has seen the northern lights, or the Aurora Borealis. It has been a growing and shrinking green glow. I have never seen them. Maybe I will get a good view on my way home tonight.

Gary

Posted by at 4:10 PM | Comments (35)

Absolutely fascinating

Good morning,

Well, yesterday was just fantasy. And, I didn't use my own theory to our advantage. We believe we are in about a 40 to 42 day cycle, at least this is our first strong impression of the weather pattern. So, when the models were predicting this big storm I should have known there was no way. It DOESN'T fit the weather pattern we are in. We are suppose to be in a flatter part of the pattern (more zonal west to east, rather than amplified). Sometimes slightly different things happen so I had some hope, but overall the weather pattern is cycling and thus I should have known better.

What does this all mean? It means that we won't have the major wet storm. But, a system will move by around Monday or Tuesday with a possibilty of some precipitation. It is something we will have to watch for Monday or Monday night when it is possibly cold enough to snow. No 3 to 5 inches of rain. No wet storm system. And, I am sorry I drew you into this fantasy yesterday. It is now back to reality. We still have to watch it carefully, but this latest solution actually fits the overall weather pattern. Look below:

Click to enlarge (Upper level flow valid Saturday)

Click to enlarge (Upper level flow valid Monday)

Click to enlarge (Upper level flow valid next Wednesday night)

The above sequence of maps shows the more realistic evolution of the next storm system. The system comes into the west coast very disorganized. Then, part of the energy dives way too far south, which is the part of the storm that was suppose to be our wet weather producer. This gets lost way down to our southwest. And, then this storm comes up across Texas with almost no chance at affecting us.

We still have to watch the other aspects of this upper level trough as it moves east across the nation. I should be smarter than this and I should have known that this less amplified solution was more likely. This is where knowing my theory is suppose to help. And as we continue to cycle there should be some faster moving systems that will have potential for some precipitation for the next two weeks. But, when they went by in the first part of November they left us dry so we will see what happens this time through the cycle.

I will add some more thoughts later on today. Here is an interesting thing to think about this morning with this rather "boring" weather pattern that we are stuck in. And this to me is one of the more fascinating statistics. We know that KCI airport is still looking for its first measurable snow. The 0.4" we had was actually the sleet from two weeks ago as the snowstorm went just south of KCI. The amazing stat of the day.......Omaha and Des Moines are still waiting for their first snow of the season. They seem to have snowy winters even when we are getting missed, but they have had NOTHING. And, one last amazing statistic: Only one time in Kansas City history has December been completely snowless (not even a flurry). This happened just two years ago in 2004. I would be amazed to see us go the rest of this month without even one snowflake officially at KCI.

Gary

Posted by at 5:45 AM | Comments (17)

Don't get excited yet, but..........and updated!

Good afternoon everyone,

I am going to post the latest data below on the amount of rain forecasted by the 12z run of the GFS model. Before you look at it, please don't jump up and down, get very excited, and think we will get blasted. Please. I highly recommend you looking at it, relaxing and then realizing it could still be almost complete fantasy. I have low confidence in this much precipitation. The potential is there and we will monitor this closely, but as we go forward another day or two I expect to see much drier solutions. There is still a chance we could get almost nothing out of this next storm system. But, there is also a chance this could be somewhat close to being correct as there could be a tropical connection. So look below and click on the map to enlarge.

Click to enlarge (GFS forecast precipitation Monday through Wednesday)

The map shows 3 to 5 inches of rain. Some of which could be snow at the end. Remember now, if the storm goes further south then we have a chance of snow and a lot less rain. Or, if the storm comes out in pieces and not one main upper low then the rainfall amounts could be divided by 10 and we end up with a half of an inch and no snow. This is just fantasy, but fun to look at. Enjoy it in this way. This is not at all our forecast at this moment.

This storm is trying to take a similar track as the big storm two weeks ago. Also, the Canadian model has come out and it is a completely different solution. It still has a nice rain storm here but it is so different it makes me wonder that the GFS is completely out to lunch, breakfast and possibly dinner too.

Have a great day! This storm will be fun to track and watch develop. Hopefully it won't leave us frustrated!

Click to enlarge (the latest data showing changes already)

Above shows how fast things can change. The heavy precipitation is further east on the new data. But, as I said, we are just having some fun. Let's see what we think on Thursday and Friday.

Gary

Posted by at 11:19 AM | Comments (30)

It starts out foggy & misty this morning

Good morning,

The cold front moved through between 3 and 5 AM. It was clear up until the time the front moved through and then low clouds spread in. The first half of today will be cloudy. The clearing line is marching this way and should arrive this afternoon. You can see the surface map below from 6:45 AM.

Click to enlarge (Surface map from 6:45 AM this morning)

A warming trend will begin once the sun comes out this afternoon. It could peak in the middle 60s on Friday.

Then, we concentrate on the developing western trough and potential return to some winter weather. Remember winter doesn't begin until 6:42 AM on December 21st. When you look at the computer models we must realize that the weather pattern is changing every day. So, the latest computer model data is basing its forecast on today and then errors are made as we go forward. This is why you must be careful when you look at a storm a week away as many things can and do happen. The storm may not even be there as we get closer, this is one horrible idea to think about. More likely the weather pattern changes as we approach that storm system and the same storm will have a different look as we get within a couple of days. So, let's watch next week and be patient. We have a TWO model run trend on the GFS right now of a much colder solution. Let's see if this trend continues into tomorrow and then we can project with more confidence into next week.

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 7:06 AM | Comments (29)

It's a drizzle storm

Good morning,

We are having a drizzle storm today. It should be much more as we look below at the maps. The first map is the current situation as of around 7 AM this morning. There is about a 33 degree contrast in temperatures across Kansas. A surface low has formed and moisture is being drawn out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Click to enlarge (Surface map during the 7 AM hour this morning)

Click to enlarge (Ruc model forecast for 3 PM Monday afternoon)

The above map shows the Ruc forecast for 3 PM today. The surface low is spinning over southern Kansas. This should be more of a storm system for us. At least it has drawn in some Gulf moisture. There is a slight possibility of a few showers or thunderstorms this evening as the main upper level wave lifts out across eastern Kansas.

As the surface low moves past us overnight the colder air will be drawn back in here on Tuesday. Then, a warming trend begins Wednesday and lasts into the weekend. The weather pattern becomes more interesting next week. The ingredients for a major winter storm will be around next week, but will they come together?

I had a great few days off. I did talk to the ROMEO's on Friday (Retired Old Men's Eating Organization). And, then Saturday our entire team at NBC Action News was at the WalMart on 135th and State Line for the "Santa Cause" benefitting Toys for tots and the Marines.

Hopefully when I get to work those winter storm ingredients will still look like they have potential for next week. The weather pattern is very strange, but has potential. Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 7:44 AM | Comments (16)

Mild Pacific Air

Snow lovers may want to cover their eyes if reading this...or ears if watching tonight. This entry will discuss the mild temperatures and little moisture that will likely be with us for the next 7 days. After a cold start to December with average monthly temperatures about 8.5 degrees below normal at KCI...a big warm-up is on the way.

Friday was a transitional day with highs 10-15 degrees warmer than Thursday. Milder Pacific Air will arrive over the weekend and generally stay over KC for the next week. All of the highs and lows in the 7 day forecast are above average for this time of year. The only 'storm' this week will occur Monday when clouds and a few light showers will be possible. After this weak storm passes by the temperatures will remain above average, and early indications are that days 7-9 could bring highs well into the 50s to the region. Maybe even some 60s close to home. That is a long way out...but the trend in recent model runs places Pacific Air over the region for much of the upcoming week.

Gary will be back on Monday and will discuss how the recent weather trends fit in his weather pattern. Otherwise, I'll try to post a few things over the weekend.

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 8:02 PM | Comments (13)

The weather pattern & an Arctic front

Good morning,

I think we have figured out the pattern that we are cycling through. Remember my weather pattern theory: The weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th and then begins cycling. It then continues until sometime in late summer as it falls apart. EVERY YEAR IS UNIQUE.

This year's pattern has done it again. What causes it? What creates the cycle? How can you determine the cycle? These are just a few of the many questions that can be asked. The third one I can answer and I can show you the evidence. The cycle can be determined by looking at the weather pattern every day and then comparing the upper level charts to what has already happened in the previous weeks.

I bring this up today because I think there is strong evidence that the weather pattern now is very similar to the weather pattern of around 40 days ago or so. The weather pattern last week during our thunderstorms, then ice storm, then snow storm was very similar to the storm that came through us around October 16th through 19th. We may be in a 40 day cycle, but let's see what we think in a couple of weeks.

There are still uncertainties but confidence is growing in what this pattern truly is. We will have some exciting moments this winter. This is a unique pattern that has never happened before and this is where the challenges will come from. Something is still very strange about it. There are some characteristics of El Nino. I can see them. But, something MUCH BIGGER is going on and then being influenced by El Nino. Los Angeles is only about 50% of their average rainfall so far. El Nino anamolies would suggest dry in Seattle and wet in Los Angeles. The exact opposite is happening on the west coast. This is what I was anticipating when we made our winter forecast as one of the main features is this persistant ridge around 145 west. This has been preventing storm systems from getting to Southern California. I expect a few to make it there in January and February with the jet stream strengthening, but only if we get a major split. If a major split happens then Kansas City should benefit with some exciting weather during the middle part of winter as well.

This is a strange weather pattern and I will have more later when we really know the pattern. I think we will have chances for some winter weather before Christmas with a few of these progressive storm systems. But, I wouldn't mind a block setting up which would allow us to benefit with some more exciting weather. If the flow blocks up across the northern hemisphere we are in the right location to have a big storm. I just don't see it happening anytime soon.

Switching subjects......An Arctic front will move through tonight and then the cold air will rapidly move out on Friday. There is a chance of a few snow flurries tonight as the front moves through. The storm for next week is already looking much differently than it looked yesterday (there is actually a chance of snow on the new data but it is too far out to get excited and it is marginal). This is why you should disregaurd most 10 to 15 day outlooks when the flow is so strong. A small change in the first few days will become a MAJOR change in the longer range.

Have a great day. I am taking a couple of days off to catch up on my sleep beginning Thursday. Jeremy will be filling in Thursday and Friday night.

Gary

Posted by at 8:01 AM | Comments (38)

Dry this week, but what about next week?

Good evening everyone,

We have a weak Arctic front that will move through Wednesday night and we will be very cold for about 24 hours, then a big warm up is likely. One week from now the latest GFS shows a system that has dropped to near Mexico will possibly lift northward and bring the region some rain. Below, you can see the 500 mb chart (18,000 feet up) which is forecasting an upper low beginning to kick out into the plains. It could be a rather wet system, but will it even be there. Let's see how it looks later this week. And, it doesn't look like it will be cold enough to snow, but let's watch the end of next week very closely

Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid one week from today)

Have a great evening!

Gary

Posted by at 5:14 PM | Comments (7)

Weather pattern and bloggers meeting

Click to enlarge

Good morning,

Everything calms down this week after an exciting period of weather. The above map shows the upper level flow forecast for Wednesday night. We will have another cold front, but at this moment there is not a storm in sight. We are still figuring out this pattern we are in and I will have a lot more on it later in the week to see if we have come up with our initial impression of what the cycle is and how the pattern may evolve and produce weeks down the road. In the mean time I welcome the, hopefully, small break in the exciting weather.

We have decided to have a meeting of the bloggers in early January, probably January 4th. I would have time to put a presentation together to show my theory and a few other things. I will try to have our entire weather team there for you to meet. My boss has told me that it would have to be a limited amount of people so for this first meeting we will have special invites via email. If you are interested then you must email us at the following email address: weather@nbcactionnews.com

Have a great week!

Gary

Posted by at 7:09 AM | Comments (22)

What a week!

Finally some exciting weather this week! It seems like the snow has avoided me ever since I experienced that 272" snow total in Marquette, MI in 2000-01. On Wednesday I moved to a temporary residence by KCI for a couple of weeks. So what happens...the place I was living at in Overland Park received 6" of snow on Thursday, while I didn't see a flake where I moved to! Maybe snow lovers in the northland will kick me out soon!

It was nice to have some excitement at work after experiencing very 'boring' weather conditions for the first month I was in Kansas City. Thunderstorms, freezing rain, sleet, and snow made for a great week! So far I've been blown away at the reponse towards our blogs. Gary told me I would be impressed, but during the height of the storm on Thursday we received 2-6+ blog responses a MINUTE. We really appreciate when you write in to tell us what is going on in your backyard. For example...the radar looked like it was snowing near KCI last Thursday. Obviously we can look at the automated weather station there, but many other communities around the area do not have the automated equipment. So a big thank you for being our eyes across the metro and beyond.

Now to this weeks weather. It can be summed up in one word...DRY. Little to no moisture looks to be available this week for the fronts that will be moving through the region. A cold front passed the area today, and all it brought was a wind shift and some scattered clouds. The chillier temps will be felt on Sunday with highs in the 20s. After a brief warm-up early this week another front will sweep through in the Wed/Thursday time frame. Once again this looks to be very dry. Once we get past next weekend the weather should become more active again...but it is much too early to tell where the lows will move.

One final thing. I had a very unique opportunity this past Friday morning to do a live cut-in during the Today Show. Matt Lauer tossed to me and I did a quick wrap-up of what the storm brought the region. It's always great to see Kansas City get a little national exposure!

Enjoy the rest of your weekend and we'll talk again soon!

Jeremy

Posted by jnelson at 4:03 PM | Comments (9)

Recap of the week and LOOK at the Sat Picture

Good Friday morning everyone,

WOW! We entered the week extremely dry, waiting for our first snow, and wondering if anything exciting would ever happen. The week ends as one of the wildest weeks in many years. On Monday I said on the air "This could be the wildest week of weather we have had in years" and I received a horrible email from a viewer saying that he was "going to do everything he can to get me fired" because of that one statement of just "trying to hype up the weather for ratings". I wonder what that guy is thinking today?

Here is this week's recap:

Monday: Thunderstorms Monday with the heaviest rain at KCI and the northland where over 2" of rain fell between Monday and Tuesday morning. A weak Arctic front slipped into the area and stalled near downtown Kansas City, then lifted back to the north.

Tuesday: Warm and beautiful with a high of 70 degrees. This was actually a result of the strengthening storm system heading our way putting us into the warm sector of the storm.

Wednesday: Arctic blast moves in dropping temperatures to below freezing. The storm slowed down and deepened just enough to allow us to go into the conveyer belt of rain and sleet with thunderstorms. We had a minor ICESTORM with the sleet causing the roadways to get completely covered despite it being so warm the entire month.

Thursday: One of the biggest November snowstorms in our regions history hits our viewing area. Amazingly the snow/no snow line was in the city. South and east of a Gladstone to Lawrence line it snowed and a lot. North and west saw, maybe, a snowflake or two. We predicted no snow near St. Joseph to 21 inches southeast of Kansas City. And we missed it by about 30 miles as nearly 20 inches of snow has fallen between Warrensburg and Clinton, with 10 inches in Lee's Summit, 9 inches in Olathe.

WOW! This is quite the week of wild weather. I think we can all agree it was one of the wildest weeks in years. Some of you are likely still frustrated, but the ones up north that just barely missed the snowstorm did get the heaviest rain. So, you weren't left high and dry.

Have a great weekend. The weather pattern is still quite fascinating. I will be making an announcement about a bloggers meeting early next week. Let's sit back and reminisce about this weeks weather.

Click to enlarge

The above visible satellite pictue from noon today. Look at the fine line that didn't just bisect Kansas City in half but it was a straight line all the way from Oklahoma, across Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois. Fascinating isn't it?

Gary

Posted by at 7:19 AM | Comments (60)