******************
How does the rain that is forecast to happen on Friday and Saturday work with your theory? I noticed that approximately 40 days ago from Friday there was high pressure at the surface and a trough to our east. With the system coming in, it almost looks like the system will be vertically stacked over our area which is nothing like what happened 40 days ago.
-------------------
Sarah,

This type of storm is what I was expecting this season. And, now we may have two in a row. One last week and now again this week. There is a mean ridge in the long term, what I call a "long term longwave ridge", at around 142 west off the California coast. We picked this feature out as we made our winter forecast. I thought as we moved into February and March there would be very good chance of huge upper lows right where they are forming. But, they have started earlier than I thought. So, this fits well with the theory, and we will know more about the cycle as we go through another few weeks.

Anyway, it is a big storm and it should be fun tracking it this week.

Gary

***************
Morning Gary, looks like though we will get at least half an inch of liquid? Do you anticipate colder air coming in soon and maybe a different storm track for snow in the near future? Thanks for tracking these difficult storms. P.S. what is causing these to track futher north, the southern jet? Michael/Topeka
----------------------
Michael,

We still don't know the exact track of this storm, but these are pretty far south tracks anyway. A slight difference and we get the winter weather, unfortunately this looks rather similar to the last one. Amazing?

Gary

****************
Gary
Ahh...well this strom appears to be taking EXACTLY the same track this last one took, but i must say it is quite amazing that we are getting such wet storms in December. This is a good sign. However, I couldnt help myself. I know this is looking WAY ahead, but I have been waiting for this and wouldnt ya know. The 12Z models are just coming in, but looking at the 06Z run of the GFS, what a wopper of a snowstorm nearby on the 9th and 10th!! Isnt that amazing?!??!? 40 days...just like you said. It still aways out...but i was just amazed just to even see it there. Anyway...we will see if it really is there on the 5th and 6th...haha. Have a great day!

Adam Penney
------------------------
Adam,

It is never exactly the same, but as you look at the pattern and the cycle it is amazing watching the computer models come up with solutions that perfectly go with the theory. Today's GFS way out at 336 hours has exactly what I expect at that time. We will see if there is any consistancy in the next few runs.

Gary

*******************
This storm will not do anything for us. It will miss us. It doesn't fit in the pattern..not the LRC itself, but the pattern of storms related to the LRC.
------------------------
Scott,

It completely fits the pattern. Does it fit the cycle, well....no. But, it perfectly fits the longwaves that exist this season. As we look back months from now we will likely see how this fit the cycle.

This storm is so similar to last week and this alone means that it fits. Don't stress out on how it fits with the first cycle or not. It is something we will have to look back on weeks or months from now. For the time being, just enjoy this. We will worry about the theory, the cycle, another time, even though as I explained this does fit into this seaon's pattern.

Gary

***************
Gary,

What is happening with the HD weather channel you guys have: 41-2 on my satellite clicker. I can't get it to come in anymore.

I was overjoyed when I first found it. I've lived in other cities where there was a local, continuous weather channel (like they have on the Kansas cable system). It's a good feature, yet so sad to lose it already.

Can you mention this on the air so everyone will understand where it has gone (unless I'm the only one with the problem)? Thanks for your on-target weather casts.

Mark
---------------
Mark,

Do you have comcast? It is still working, but I have heard of some problems on Comcast. Call them if you get the chance.

Gary

*****************
Gary:

Good Midmoring to you!!! Grading Finals (not to mention playingh with 2 kids!!!) and of course looking at the latest model runs-my weather freakishness is severely hampering my finals grading!!!

The 12Z GFS is interesting: at 72 hours it looks like both the surface and ULL are heading North and more east from around Liberal, Kansas-then bam at 84 hours both just hit due North and then begin the track back east-it seems the GFS really strenthens that south east ridge in that time frame-I think that is kind of a wierd solution. Also, fwiw, the NAM at 12Z is much slower at 84 hours.

I still think we are in the game with this-I do realize that the track now on the models is similar to last week and that should be a clue-however, I just have a gut feeling this is going to go south of the area. (also, cold air is an issue-could be all rain no matter the track!!) That strait north jog is just kind of strange to me.

For sure, the storm is not even forecast to get onshore until Wednesday afternoon and alot will change then as well as when it crosses the Rockies-by then, the models should be getting better data entry (and satelite and radar returns!!) and we should have a better handle-things don't look great now for snow, but I really do think we are still in the game. As always, time will tell!!! Thanks again for reading and all the responses!!! As always, I'm holding onto every string I can for some snow!!!! But will be excited for the rain as well!!
-----------------------------
Bill,

This will be a fun storm to track, as long as we get something out of it. Otherwise the frustrations will build again. I don't see how we won't get a significant rain event out of this at the very least.

Then, the GFS solution this morning has potential for snow on the back side. This would be EXTREMELY rare if the storm closes off as much as forecasted. If it does then we will have a prolonged period of being in the circulation on the back side. Most of the time the upper low just keeps moving and lifting northeast. If it does this continuous movement then we wouldn't get much snow. Let's hope it goes even a bit further south and moves slowly. There is hope.

Gary

*******************
Gary- WHERE IS THE SNOW ! (I know its not your fault) Atleast what we do have you keep interesting....
Ok... more rain. I give up. I keep storing my wireless rain guage thinking that the next one will be snow. Not supposed to keep it out under 32 degrees. So maybe if I put it back out and leave it it, will snow? I am still trying to be hopeful for some snow- this has just gotten rediculous for us snow lovers. Especially north KC. Two (one pending)- one and a half inch rainstorms in December??? What the heck. It is pushing January and we are still getting rain....how weird! SO FRUSTRATED! Can you imagine what it would be like if it were cold enough- wow.
----------------
Brett,

Let's be patient. We only average around 20 inches of snow around here for a reason. One or two storms hit you and then most don't. There is hope. Remember winter only began last week.

Gary

*************
Gary, please do not tell me Denver is going to get more (a lot?) of snow and we get no snow. Last week was bad enough. Then it was made worse when the Broncos won because of a failed point-after attempt. Another big snow for them this week and zero snow for us would be...well...lousy.

Jay C.
------------------------
Jay,

First of all the Broncos could lose on Sunday. Wouldn't that be sweet. And secondly they don't deserve any more snow. It is our turn. But this is not how the weather works. So, let's hope the storm comes further south.

Gary

****************
Gary,

i was just wondering that if the storm did go 25-50 miles south of us, would we see good snow. Andwould there be a change over quicker if it went south? I think it will go further south. Storms usually go farther south than the models predict. dont they?
---------------------------------
Andy,

It depends on the set up. This is a storm that is not on shore yet. So, we will get some more varying solutions. The trend is further north at this moment. The further south the better, but it will still be tough for a while to get any snow here as warmer air is pumping in.

Gary

Andy

***************
Gary,
If we do not get any snowfall from this storm will this be another very low snow year? KCI still has not even received 1 inch of snow and we are rapidly moving into January. The total snowfall amount trends over the past several years have been very bad for us. The models better show a pattern change soon with some blocking in the Atlantic or an East Pacific Ridge!
Devin
------------------------
Devin,

Just be patient. KCI, Des Moines, and Omaha continue to wait. By mid January we should have had one or two snowstorms. If not then we can be frustrated.

Gary

******************
Gary,

I was just watching one of the other stations weather report and they say no chance of snow, with temps near 40 with just rain. I want to kno what you think the storm will do. I feel that it will go farther south.

Andy
-----------------------
Andy,

I doubt it goes further south, but we can hope for it. There wouldn't be much chance of snow if the storm tracks north of us. Maybe on the back side?

Gary

********************
Gary, your response is intriguing to me. Since this is the first full year of the LRC for me, I need to better understand something about the theory. Is it more the longwave/shortwaves that define the cycle, or the cycles itself within the LRC? I am more interested in the latter as it seems to be more objective/tangible. I guess this is why I saw the SMC/SMCv.2 patterns prior to the LRC finalized. I am more convinced of the cycles of storms than the rest at this point.

That being the case, I will be very interested in watching the rest of the season to see if the cycles actually change. Since watching in August, the amplitudes have changed, but the cycle of storms have been pretty consistent. That is why I am sure of the Jan 10th storm.

Gary, without having some confidence in the cycles themselves, I don't think you would have any pattern other than some persistant features... Dunno..I think you are underestimating the patterns of storms.

To that extent, this storm does not fit in the pattern. Yes, the 500mb does, but a storm affecting KC does not. Lets see what happens. If it does affect us, I will have to look deeper to see what happened. If it does not...it would stand to reason to the LRC defined cycle.

I want snow, badly..but not sure it will happen. Looks too warm...
-------------------------
Scott,

What do you mean, "a storm affecting KC does not fit"? It sure does. And, the overall pattern is cycling. And, as you have seen yourself you can rely on it most of the time. But, when we go into split flow, which has finally happened, and looks like it will continue, then the pattern is masked. The features are still there, but the energy is distributed through the southern and northern branches with varying energy. This is why you must go back and look a few weeks from now.

When we made our winter forecasts this is what I was anticipating.....big upper lows. Just a few days ago you had tremendous confidence in the cycle. Then suddenly you have none. Well, this is weather for you.

I have a strong suggestion. Let's track this storm and the others showing up and then worry about the cycle later.

With this said, I don't like the further north track of this upper low. Hopefully when it dives into the west over the next 24 hours we will get a further south solution.

Gary

******************
Gary,
Interesting that you should note that KCI, Des Moines, and Omaha are still waiting for their first snowfalls. Boston and New York are still waiting for a significant snowfall. Two years ago, my hometown of Stonington, CT reportedly had 107 inches. This year it hasn't had any yet.
-----------------------
Matt,

And, it will be hard to get some snow without Arctic air. We need an Arctic airmass.

Gary

******************
Hello! This may be besides the point, and really show how impatient I am (sorry)but, when you said "special weather graphics" do you mean new tech. or just very intresting graphics. You don't have to tell me if you dont't want to-- thats fine! I'll wait if I have too!
-----------------
Alden,

I mean just our usual graphics, but we with a storm to track. I always try to make them special.

Gary

**************
Where on the models can you find out temperature information? I really hope this storm goes further south so we can get some snow, that is if there is cold enough air to go along with it. I hope we see some action soon!!!
------------------
John,

We will see some action, but snow? Let's hope, but I don't like the trends.

Gary

***************
Gary,

Is there any exciting changes with the latest data. I was just curious. Anything that gives us anyhopes for snow yet?? I heard and read something that was WAY too exciting and thought I would ask you first, if it didnt come from you then I know not to get excited. Hope you're having a good day.
----------------------
Brett,

Here we go again. The trend is not good at this moment.

Gary

Gary:
Enjoy the comments from the bloggers. Duluth Mn. had no snow on the ground for Christmas, first time since they kept records since 1873. We had a little drizzle last go round. Souix Falls S.D. had 3/4" inch of rain and no ice. We hope this system goes about one hundred miles further north and stays west long enough to get some go pecip.
Happy New Year everybody!!
Rod
-----------------------------
Rod,

This is the stat of the day. WOW! Maybe this week, but it probably will go too far south.

Gary

*********************
Hey Gary what is up with this next storm it looks like it is tracking farther south and then when it gets to missouri it tracks almost due north across the state and just stays in one spot.Am I looking at this wrong?
--------------------------
Daniel,

The storm is forecast to go through a transition near us, so this alone should teach us to be patient.

Gary

******************
IF we still get a big rain out of this I will take it as a very good sign, Yes I do want a lot of snow, but I know that this is a pattern that we are going to have to deal with until next AUGUST, so IF it just ends up being a decently wet pattern, in the long term that would be the important thing, yes it is depressing not getting the snow yet, but I wouldn't poo-poo the rain solution too much at least it would be a producing storm for us. So I say bring on the cut-off lows!!
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
--------------------
Nick,

I am liking the trend in the wetter pattern. Let's see if it stays this way in the coming weeks. It looks like it will.

Gary

*******************
I still have faith in the LRC...strong..but in different features.
----------------------------
Scott,

If it were exact then we would know EXACTLY what would happen. There is always the X factor. But, this pattern IS still cycling and likely right on schedule. It is frustrating when we know it was lining up perfectly for most of this pattern, but there have been some exceptions. These exceptions still are falling into the longwave trough positions. And, as I said, we will be able to look back weeks from now and it will all make more sense.

Gary

*******************
Gary,

I was looking at the new models, and is it just me or is the storm moving the slightest bit south? It doesnt look like much, but mabey it is a new trend? What do you think?

Andy
--------------------------------
Andy,

Remember, remember, remember. This storm hasn't even formed yet. So, just like the others, it can't be moving north or south when it isn't even there. The models are either north or south, but let's wait until the storm forms during the day on Wednesday.

Gary

***************
Gary,

Your forecast tonight just scared me! My wife is planning to drive to Pagosa Springs CO on Thursday to take our son skiing. Now I am not sure the trip will be safe. any thoughts?

Mike
-------------------------------
Mike,

Let's see how it looks on Wednesday. I will try to pinpoint the heavier snowfall, but it is taking aim on parts of Colorado.

Gary

*************
Gary.

The only surprise here is the storm that hit at the beginning of December. Clearly that was the exception and not the rule. Every year this becomes a worse and worse place to live if you love snow. For anyone who does this is just a terrible place to live and that's probably all there is to it. Our average temperature for the entire winter season has now risen above freezing and that can't be a good sign of things to come. Can you detect any real reason to expect anywhere close to 30" of snow here this wnter? Apreciate your time as always...

Matt Maisch
----------------------------
Matt,

We will have a good chance of one or two more storm systems like the one at the end of November. So, there is hope. But, I agree with you. If you look at the past 15 years we are in a snow drought. Hopefully this season will come through for us. It seems that we are so close each year. But, in the end "not much" happens.

Gary

*************
You must be banging your head on your desk trying to figure out what this storm will do! It sounds like it has a mind of its own.
-----------------
Marlina,

The storm will hopefully be making up its mind soon. I just can't stand it that we have a storm so close and we could end up with no snow again. It just needs to go further south, not further north.

Gary

************
Gary, just a few observations, I was born and raised here and have learned over the years that when you least expect it, EXPECT IT! I too love the change of seasons this is why I chose working outdoors for my vocation in life. This is also one of the reasons I enjoy following the weather forecasts from you and many others. With that being said working in my field, (public works), sometimes inclement winter weather is not always as enjoyable for me as for some. For example, driving a snow-plow in rush-hour traffic. I guess what I'm trying to say is don't forget about the people that have to go to work in the rain, sleet, snow and ice. As for the people that don't like the weather here, maybe they should move. Personally I think we are very lucky to live in this part of the country, with all of its unpredictability. Gary keep up the hard work, if everyone had your passion for what they do the world would be a better place. Happy New Year! Greg.
----------------------
Greg,

We will be thinking of you as these storm systems approach. Sometimes it is good to get reminded about the workers who must be out in the winter weather. It must be good for you as of the past few years though.

Gary

*********
Gary
Is it just me or is the latest 00 UTC GFS model drifting this storm slightly slower/more to the west and slightly further SOUTH as well. The interesting thing to me is how the this storm just seems to want to close off and hang just south of us for almost a day and a half. The latest GFS still shows snow...all be it very light through Monday. This is interesting. We should know more tomorrow obviously once we get a good sampling of this storm developing across land. Im still crossing my fingers on some decent snowfall. I will be out at arrowhead on Sunday for the Chiefs/Jags game. It would be sooo neat to see snow falling at the game. Talk to you tomorrow! This blog is fantastic!

Adam Penney
----------------------
Adam,

Yes, the trend has been further south in the models. Confidence will grow as it gets closer.

Gary

*************
Gary,

I just wanted to know, if the storm goes south for it to snow, would it be heavy or light?

Thanks,

Andy
-----------------------
Andy,

It isn't worth thinking about yet.

Gary

********************
So..in times of referring to snow, I have been turning to the SPC SREF. It looked very good except for the last two frames. Sigh...unless something changes, this is a repeat of last week. Maybe just a hair further east this time..but basically the same track. We may catch some, but just the edge. Not the heavy part.

So...the LRC is more focused on the longwaves/features than the actually storm patterns itself. Ok. I have to deduce this based on the fact that this storm does not fit the cycle, but does fit within the LRC longwaves/features.

If the LRC is just the pattern of longwaves/features, it is too subjective for me, since the amplitudes differ greatly on each cycle. I bought into the LRC as it related more to the cycles of similar storms. Granted, the strength differs slightly, and the locations did as well..but not enough to discount it.

I am looking more at repetitive cycles of storms more than anything. I think I see it still in the GRC [still thinking this storm won't do much to us] This is what brought me to the SMC/SMCv.2 and the LRC. I also see a pattern looking at the 500mb at the N.Pole view. Dunno. Hate to discount the cycle of storms out of the LRC...seemed to me that had the most easily understood and accepted attributes.
------------------------
Scott,

This is why my theory is a work in progress. I oversimplify it so we can all understand. Each time through the cycle can be a bit baffling, and then suddenly it all makes sense. There is a fairly strong El Nino that is likely influencing the pattern, amongst other things we may not know about yet. But, I have experienced that the cycle continues. The next time through the cycle may become more obvious. It is a bit baffling right now, but the GRC is all about where the main longwave troughs and ridges are during the season, and also the cycle. So far, the main features are there, just as I expected with one big exception at this point. I thought there would be a much deeper Great Lakes trough that would come back, and at least so far this part of the pattern has not been there on this second cycle which has thrown things off a bit. We have gone through this weather pattern day by day, trying to compare (I had never been so specific as I have been this season). We saw the comparisons and it was amazing and so similary, then suddenly the past few days it appears different. We have a rather well pronounced split flow that has formed. I have always said that when we get a split in the flow then the pattern is disguised. So, let's see how it looks as we go into the next couple of months.

Gary

*********
Gary,
This is our third "winter" here in KC. What I was wondering is what the records are for most snow in a season and snowfall. Also, what is the record for lowest snowfall in a winter in KC?
Last, but not least, you spoke on tonight's weather broadcast about moist air being drawn in from the Gulf of Mexico. What is it that pulls the moisture north?
Thanks!
-------------------------
Matt,

Good questions! The snowiest winter we have ever had occured in 1911-12 when 67 inches fell. The least amount of snow ever in a season has been 4.5 inches in 1922-23. KCI is at zero right now. So, if history pans out we know we will get at least 4.5", but then again we could also set the lowest seasonal total record. I don't even want to think about this. We have flirted with this record the past few years.

When a storm approaches a low pressure area forms near the surface. The winds blow towards low pressure and away from high pressure. So, these south winds will pull the air out of the Gulf of Mexico and this is our biggest moisture source for storm systems.

Gary

*******************
Gary:

Good Morning!! If ever there was a time for one to heed your advice regarding model output, now is the time!! The guidence is all over the place-it is akin to trying to use a map from 1980 to guide you through the North Land!!!!

It does appear (and this has the caveat that we are looking at a solution based upon data input right now and that data will change over the next 48 hours as then will the solutions!!) that models have trended further south and it seems it is due to the fact they have picked up on a another vort max comming into the trough from Canada-this seems to be pushing it south and then models are trying to merge these two together right around us-if there is indeed this second piece of energy, I think the modles will have a real tough time figuring out how they merge until about 12 hours before. The last 3 runs of the GFS does some of the funkiest things I have ever seen with a low in this area-how many times do we have a low go up and down highway 59 for about 18 hours?? Interesting stuff. It looks like the models are trying to figure out the second piece of energy as well as the strength of the ridge in the south east.

All of this aside, it really looks like cold air will be an issue unless the whole complex can ride the Oklahoma border (the ULL looks to possibly be trending that direction-hope???) and that may be hoping for too much. For sure, the gudience is going to change alot in the next 48 hours and it may even be untill both of these UL features get into the plains before a solution is brought into focus. I really don't think anyone is out of the game north of Wichita-most likely we are too far south but this thing looks to change on a dime!!!

I just want to say good luck to you and everyone on the weather team-this really seems to be looking like one of those storms that just drive you crazy. However, this does two things: 1. It shows again your skill in forecasting and also your skill in presenting a forecast-many outlets will say this is a done deal but you will always present the possibilites and people like that-many viwers want to know the possbilities and why they can happen-your presentations of these issues is one of the many reason why your forecasts are so good. 2. It will show your enthuisasam for weather-that is something severely lacking in other outlets in this area-this is exciting and challenging-people like to see this excitement!!!!

Have a great day-It does appear we will see some decent rain with this regardless of anything else so that is good indeed!!! Have a great day
---------------------
Bill,

I am looking forward to my morning update from you each day! Thanks!

Good points! Two days before our icestorm and snowstorm those other outlets you talk about said there is "no chance of snow". Even though it looked like the storm was going well south we knew better. It came back north and the correct way to describe the weather was to leave that door open. You know how I leave the door open all of the time. But, I will close it shut when it is what I really think. This is one of the big differences in the way I forecast the weather. So, great observation on your part. Sometime I get critisized for being "wishy washy", but I believe we do it with more confidence and I only present the options.

And, on your second point, I don't know why the others don't get excited about these storm systems. I am almost always entertained by our weather even during the summer when we are tracking upper highs.

The new data is trickling out. I decided to wait until this new data was out. With the energy moving onshore we will likely get a different, but more reliable solution. But, the best model run yet should be tonights.

Gary