***********
Well if we dont get snow hopefully it will feel like christmas. I hate all this warm weather during the late fall. I really hope that storm goes south so AC can get more snow.
.................

Daniel,

You will at least get one of your wishes this week. It is going to be cooler. Maybe 50s on Wednesday, but the rest of the week should be 40s or a bit cooler for highs.

Jeremy

******************
Hi Jeremy,

We've been a military family for 16 years now and we completely empathize with the "transition" mode. It's always challenging to move to a new area. May you and your family have a restful holiday season. Oh, and by the way... welcome home!

The Johnson Family
........................

Thanks for the kind words. My dad was stationed in Gardner/Olathe when he was in the Navy a long time ago...so he experienced the military move several times. Have a great holiday season!

Jeremy

***********
Jeremy,

Welcome to KC!!! I haven't had a chance to post to you. I can only imagine how hard it would be move this time of year. I know you and your family will love Kansas City! Hopefully you will be settled somewhat by Christmas :)

How exciting to be with "our" Gary!! I think you are doing a wonderful job, and really seem to be so in sync with everyone on KSHB. I'm hoping you will bring us some cold weather and alittle bit of Christmas snow :)

Welcome again!
...................

Donna,

Thanks for the welcome! My family is already enjoying KC. Now that I am getting settled in I hope to get out and meet more people around KC. That first month and a half was a little too hectic...at least the weather was somewhat calm.

I'll see if I can work on getting some snow around for X-Mas...but no promises:)

Have a great holiday and thanks for checking in!

Jeremy

************
Oh and welcome to Kansas City I look forward to seeing you and the team at the weather bloggers meeting. Man that stupid storm needs to go south.
................

The 6Z data continues with the same track for the storm(actually put it back a bit farther north). So right now it looks like all rain for KC by mid-week. Things could change...but right now 40s to near 50 with some rain:(

I'm looking forward to the bloggers meeting in early January. I think will be a good time and look forward to placing a face with everyone's name!

Jeremy

***********
Throw the models out. This will dig further south and we will see something. GRC has it this way.
..............

We'll see something...it looks like rain though. Maybe some snow on the backside of the storm...but as of now the accumulation would be light and north of KC. Obviously things can change. For the sake of snow lovers I hope your solution is correct.

Jeremy

*************
I agree with what Gary said the other night "If we aren't going to have snow then the temps should be in the 60's". According to the GRC, is the rain that is coming this week, the same storm time frame that dumped a large amount of snow down south?
................

I don't think this is the same storm. The cycle when I spoke with Gary last was somewhere around 30-40 days. But I would pose this question to him on Monday when he blogs again.

Jeremy

*************
Have the invitations for the bloggers' meeting already been sent out?
.................

I'll ask Gary later today. He is working the show after the Chiefs game tonight.

Jeremy

************
I hope you enjoy being able to get settled in to your new home!
I to have seen the northern lights on at least two occasions, once when I was on vacation with my dad at Lake Winnibogoshish, MN, and the other time in St. Joe last year I belive when there was a BIG geomagnetic storm, ironically the one that was most spectacular visually was the one I saw in St. Joe.
On the weather front, at least it still looks to be a decent shot at rain. Do you think we could even get a thunderstorm out of this? If there were to be thunderstorms it looks like we would be near the right spot to see some.(assuming this run is close to the actuall track of the storm:))
Thanks for your time!
Nick in St. Joe!
************

I just glanced at the 00Z run of the GFS through 108 hours. The upper low is still west of us and brings us some rain Wed. and cooler temps Thursday. Still no snow(outside of a flurry) with this storm. The 18Z GFS pushed the storm for early next week a bit farther north, so we will keep an eye on this for snow lovers. But that storm is WAY out on the horizon.
........................

************
Jeremy,

I need it to stay Rain not snow. My husband & I are traveling to Dallas on Friday. No snow Please!!!
................

Melanie,

You are heading the right direction to insure yourself of seeing no snow. Even in KC it looks doubtful for ANY snow with the mid-week storm.

**************
What are the latest models showing please say at least some snow in the northland?
.....................

Charles,

You may see a little snow...but very likely no snow accumulation. Probably trace amounts...it is still looking like rain and a few flurries on the tail end of the storm. If anything begins to change we will let the bloggers know right away.

Jeremy

**************
I lost track of what day we were at in the GRC. So, the storm we had at the end of November should come back around Jan 7-9? I am looking forward to the Bloggers meeting. Wonder if Gary planned the meeting according to his theory, thus no bad weather to travel in. LOL
I'm glad you and your family are now part of the Kansas City Community.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Ann,

It sounds like the bloggers meeting will be a lot of fun. Gary is planning some stuff for everyone. It will be nice to put a face to each bloggers name! Gary will be back at the wheel of the blog again on Monday.

Thanks for checking in!

Jeremy

Gary:

Good Morning-I hope you had a great weekend. Jeremy, welcome to the KC area!!!! I'm glad you are somewhat settled!!
Well, I did not look at one weather related site all weekend thinking I didn't want to hinge on every model run-checked this morning and wow-a low in the Dakotas on 12-20-kind of a spring time track!!! (always the graping at straws person, the Euro still has it a bit further south!!!) I just hope as it ejects out we can get some moisture from it-I'm really not convinced we will as we seem to get dry slotted alot on tracks like that-time will tell.
IMHO (which is quite humble indeed) I just don't see us getting alot of winter type activity with a raging AO and EPO and a neutral PNA-they don't seem to be cycling back down like they did at the end of November or like the forecasts showed last week. I still hold out hope as you don't need arctic air to get snow-it is still cold enough in Canada to give us snow (even if they are above normal!!!) we just need it all to come together-this comming weekend looks like some cold air is in place but the track is suppressed. I just think we need the AO to go negative and the EPO (which is not supposed to play such a factor in nino events but this does not seem to be a "typical" nino event) to go somewhat negative.
As I was taking my break I wondered if you have ever had the chance to research your cycle theory in terms of long term (decadadal, 20 years etc) weather patterns-I'm kind of wondering if maybe we're not in a 20-30 year cycle like the 30's and 40's and to some extent the 50's where it was overall warm and pretty dry (obviously there were wet and cold years in there, but overall it was a warmer period if memory serves me correctly from the data)-just curious as I really think this theory is outstanding and one that could really serve the met. community in the future!!

Keep hope alive-even if the overall pattern we are in is kind of crummy, we can still have things come togther-don't need 2 weeks of locked in cold (though that would be nice) to get a good winter event and through these times I always think of two years in this area: 1. 1912-1913: no snow and warm all winter and then 60 inches in March!!! 2. 1841-1842 (data from a book called the Annals of Platte County) was like summer the whole winter-barely even frosted the whole winter-imagine that if you are a snow lover!!!!
Again, sorry so long-it is the hisory teacher in me!!! Have a great day and again as always, excellent job by you and your team!!!
------------------
Bill,

I really need to go and study that 1912-13 year. This year has the potential for the storm systems to behave a bit differently later in February and March. There is a mean ridge at 140 west and this would teleconnect to big southwestern upper lows once the jet stream weakens a bit. So, beware of the ides of March.

I haven't studied long term cycles. According to my theory every year is unique. Something broader may be happening to create longer general changes, but overall every year has the potential to be wet or dry depending on how the weather pattern sets up that season.

Gary