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Watch out Colorado
Good morning everyone,
I am going to wait until the new data comes out later this morning before I go into detail on this next storm approaching. The energy that is going to produce this storm has just moved inland. This means that the storm hasn't even formed yet. This will happen this afternoon and tonight as an upper low closes off and begins spinning somewhere over the 4 corners states. We have had a new solution every 6 hours with the latest trend of bringing the upper low near Kansas City, so let's wait and see what the new data shows. I will have more around 10:30 AM or so.........
O.K. The new data is in and it is yet another solution, but we have solution convergence here which means that confidence is growing on the track of this storm.
Click to enlarge (Upper level flow forecast for New Year's Eve morning)
Above is the latest GFS run showing the upper low tracking near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. But will it matter at all? I doubt it. Unless the system ends up in Oklahoma and Arkansas we will be too warm. Warm air wraps into this storm and will keep us near 40 degrees on Sunday and Monday. We have to continue monitoring this, but we must have a cold air source and there isn't one.
At the same time, western Kansas or especially Colorado could have a repeat performance with over 3 feet of snow possible somewhere between Colorado Springs and the Wyoming border. The bullseye is centered near Boulder, CO on the latest data which would become historic for this part of the country if this snowstorm materializes.
So, here we are, jealous of another Colorado snowstorm. It does appear we will get some nice rain out of this system. And, we will continue seeing if there are any trends. If there is any way cold air can get tapped and surge into Kansas then we would be in good shape. I just wonder if this is possible. You don't need to ask what would happen if it goes further south. We will just have to see how this trends.
Have a great day. Remember, we haven't ruled out snow yet, but the chance appears to be rather slim. Let's hope for a nice trend in the models and the storm over the next few days. It has time to change. I wouldn't mind being in Colorado right now though.
Posted by at December 27, 2006 7:12 AM
Is there a chance that once the stom forms tha models jump to the south puting the storm over central MO
Certainly there is a chance, but I just don't have confidence in any solution at this time. It would be nice to have a cold air mass dropping south. This often pushes things further south. Let's look for this feature.
Posted by: Charles at December 27, 2006 7:31 AM
Morning Gary, I looked at the long range maps from your suggested NWS site and looks like the cold side the of storm will track west and north of us. At least we may get another round of decent rain. If we can get colder air in here over he next two weeks and with the wetter pattern do you see any shifts in the jet stream that could put Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa etc in the band of snow? Thanks and keep us updated. Michael/Topeka
Let's see how the models trend today. Up until now they are forecasting the storms development. Well, today it forms and then we will have a more reliable solution.
Posted by: michael huffman at December 27, 2006 7:44 AM
Are you nervous waiting on the new models to come out?
Now we can get nervous for the next time the models come out in a few hours.
Posted by: Charles at December 27, 2006 9:08 AM
Well the 12 UTC GFS data has come in and it seems its still trending towards the south ever so slightly. Unfortunately it appears to me, the dry slot is the killer. Maybe we can get some light snow on the backside, but today is Wednesday and that is Sunday so something could still change. Atleast this is exciting. We could be sitting here waiting for something to talk about. Ill keep watching! Thanks for everything you do!
You hit it on the nose! We should be very happy that we have a storm to talk about. So, let's enjoy whatever it has for us. Forecasting the rainfall will still be fun, and we can't rule out the chance of snow yet.
Posted by: Adam Penney at December 27, 2006 10:23 AM
Gary...This sure feels a lot like last year....big/cold storm to start the year and than BAM warm weather that never ends. Maybe you should do a remote weather forcast from CO this weekend.
If Jeff Penner and Brett Anthony weren't on vacation I would have tried to be in Colorado for this storm.
Anyway, this is SO different than last year. The cold part seems similar, but these storm systems are great for ending any talk of drought. This was not the case last year.
Posted by: Chris at December 27, 2006 12:41 PM
If the LRC is in place and we have recieved this much rain in December, do you think when we tap into the spring warmth and moisture from the Gulf we could be in for flooding this spring?
I was just thinking about this forty day cycle and also in the spring do you think the storms that went by dry this december will be wet in the spring?
I am also wishing for to be in colorado myself.
Have a good day,
you do excellent work and handle the blog with eliquence.
Thanks. It can be challenging. I spend a lot of time answering/talking with the bloggers.
The LRC is very good news for this next few months. I can't see us being dry this spring.
Posted by: ryan mcmillian at December 27, 2006 1:05 PM
Curious..is the SE ridge going to block this thing up a bit? I am not sure about the models even now. This could easily dig further.
As always this storm is caught in a changing, or rather shifting pattern (We know it is the same pattern, but it shifts around).
Posted by: Scott at December 27, 2006 2:12 PM
Well if we are around a 40 day cycle we should be entering the 3rd cycle. So lets see how this all plays outs.
I believe the first cycle began later in October and this means we are nearing the end of the second cycle, but it has another couple of weeks to go.
It is amazing, but when we saw this pattern set up we wondered, in October, why there weren't big upper lows in the southwest. Well, there is no more wondering.
Posted by: Doug Heady at December 27, 2006 3:36 PM