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A Solution We Can Count On
Well, all of our latest computer data the GFS, European, Canadian and UKMET models have converged on a solution of taking the storm for next week way to the north of KC. It looks like it will track from Arizona to South Dakota and then east to Minnesota. This means if everyhting comes together, we could get .50" of rain on Wednesday. There is very little chance of the track changing. See map below.
Now, is that it for a "White Christmas?" No, there is a system to watch around the 25th, but right now it looks weak.
This map is valid Noon Thursday.
Click to Enlarge
We also must talk about the cold front for Sunday. The latest data just came in and shows the front 75 miles south of KC by early morning Sunday. This means Sunday is cloudy with temperatures in the 40s. We may also have an extended period of drizzle for much of Sunday into Sunday night.
Posted by at December 16, 2006 8:05 AM
Jeff:
I hope you are right in your forecast. I am in Mn. and the forecasters here are saying nothing for any storm, maybe a shower or flurries. I hope we get some kind of moisture. Last year at this time we just received about 4" of snow. This year we are approaching a record as far as this late in season with no snowfall.
Rod
Posted by: Rod at December 16, 2006 8:44 AM
Its Saturday - but Fridays current forecast is showing
Posted by: teach at December 16, 2006 10:40 AM
The lastest runs shift the storm a little bit further south, so I am not trusting on the models at all yet, I still think that the models have afew tricks up their sleeves, although I don't think we will get any snow out of this, we will be lucky if we atleast get a good rain, YES I am lowering my expectations, For now:)
Nick in(mild) St. Joe!
Posted by: Nick Rau at December 16, 2006 3:19 PM
Jeff, I respectfully disagree. It may be in the form of rain or to snow, but the GFS's do show the storm north, but not after it passes us. Yesterday, the same GFS showed the storm going south. I guess we'll see.
Posted by: GaryB at December 16, 2006 3:43 PM
Guys - Models have been all over the place, and can be dead WRONG. Perhaps it will take that rather unusual northward turn, perhaps not. Personally, the way the computer models have been, I'd wait and see. I don't see this northward turner repeating ANYTHING in the "pattern" - hasn't happened before. So, is this an aberration of the pattern or what? I definitely agree snow isn't gonna happen.
Dog
Posted by: StormDog at December 16, 2006 4:20 PM
Hey what the models saying. 18z takes the storm just south or maybe right over KC. you gonna do a blog update tonight
Posted by: Daniel at December 16, 2006 6:25 PM
Is their still no chance of snow this week
Posted by: Charles at December 16, 2006 7:07 PM
Yet ANOTHER solution on the 18z GFS (I wouldn't count on it much) - the upper low pivots from Baja California into AZ into NM, then up into western KS, then meanders, barely, over 48-72 hours over KS, edging eastward ever so slightly, ending up over WESTERN MISSOURI by Fri-night next or Saturday. Well, you know the saying, "Cut-Off Low etc etc..."
Whatever happens, I suspect, won't be handled well by ANY model on this one, in my opinion, but we shall see.
Later,
Dog
Posted by: StormDog at December 16, 2006 7:16 PM
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