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Absolutely fascinating
Good morning,
Well, yesterday was just fantasy. And, I didn't use my own theory to our advantage. We believe we are in about a 40 to 42 day cycle, at least this is our first strong impression of the weather pattern. So, when the models were predicting this big storm I should have known there was no way. It DOESN'T fit the weather pattern we are in. We are suppose to be in a flatter part of the pattern (more zonal west to east, rather than amplified). Sometimes slightly different things happen so I had some hope, but overall the weather pattern is cycling and thus I should have known better.
What does this all mean? It means that we won't have the major wet storm. But, a system will move by around Monday or Tuesday with a possibilty of some precipitation. It is something we will have to watch for Monday or Monday night when it is possibly cold enough to snow. No 3 to 5 inches of rain. No wet storm system. And, I am sorry I drew you into this fantasy yesterday. It is now back to reality. We still have to watch it carefully, but this latest solution actually fits the overall weather pattern. Look below:
Click to enlarge (Upper level flow valid Saturday)
Click to enlarge (Upper level flow valid Monday)
 Click to enlarge (Upper level flow valid next Wednesday night)
The above sequence of maps shows the more realistic evolution of the next storm system. The system comes into the west coast very disorganized. Then, part of the energy dives way too far south, which is the part of the storm that was suppose to be our wet weather producer. This gets lost way down to our southwest. And, then this storm comes up across Texas with almost no chance at affecting us.
We still have to watch the other aspects of this upper level trough as it moves east across the nation. I should be smarter than this and I should have known that this less amplified solution was more likely. This is where knowing my theory is suppose to help. And as we continue to cycle there should be some faster moving systems that will have potential for some precipitation for the next two weeks. But, when they went by in the first part of November they left us dry so we will see what happens this time through the cycle.
I will add some more thoughts later on today. Here is an interesting thing to think about this morning with this rather "boring" weather pattern that we are stuck in. And this to me is one of the more fascinating statistics. We know that KCI airport is still looking for its first measurable snow. The 0.4" we had was actually the sleet from two weeks ago as the snowstorm went just south of KCI. The amazing stat of the day.......Omaha and Des Moines are still waiting for their first snow of the season. They seem to have snowy winters even when we are getting missed, but they have had NOTHING. And, one last amazing statistic: Only one time in Kansas City history has December been completely snowless (not even a flurry). This happened just two years ago in 2004. I would be amazed to see us go the rest of this month without even one snowflake officially at KCI.
Gary
Posted by at December 14, 2006 5:45 AM
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Hi gary... don't be too hard on yourself. in your business it's easy to second-guess yourself! have a great day! - mike
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Mike,
I am not being hard on myself. I just want the weather to be exciting. And, I should have known better. I really should have.
Gary
Posted by: Mike T at December 14, 2006 6:22 AM
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Hey Gary,
Isn't it red sky in the morning, sailors take warning? Red sky at night, sailors delight.. It looks awful red this morning. The clouds this morning give a nice red look to the sky. Why does mother nature have it in for us? :(
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Dave,
Good question. But, we are not alone this year. Maybe we will still get an interesting twist in the pattern later this month.
Gary
Posted by: Dave C. at December 14, 2006 7:20 AM
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Hey gary, that is what iwas trying to say yesterday if it has a pattern when should we get a snowstorm thanks
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John,
There could be a chance here or there between now and the end of the year. Then around January 10th or so we may set up more into the part of the pattern that did produce our one snowstorm near by.
Gary
Posted by: john marr at December 14, 2006 7:40 AM
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Do you ever sleep? It seems as though you are blogging or responding to blogs at all hours of the night. We will let you take a breather long enough to recharge! :-)
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Ivy,
Thank you for noticing. I spend a lot of time with the answering the blog. As you know I have a passion for weather, but at times I do get a break. I am working Sunday night with the big Chiefs/Chargers game on NBC. I plan on taking next Thursday and Friday off if the weather is calm. I have two more days to take off this year and I am working Christmas week, so hopefully I will get those days to recharge my battery.
Gary
Posted by: Ivy at December 14, 2006 7:48 AM
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Gary
If you took a break every time the weather was calm you would be on a permanent vacation! I'm glad you stick around though and try to add excitement, even if is only fantasy at times. I was curious as to why KCI is the official place for recording Kansas City statistics. It seems as if a more central location such as the Metro area would be more logical. I'm amazed the last snow event went down as zero balance in the record books. Also, do you use your theory when making your forcasts or just the models or facts?
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Jim,
You are so funny. I have a trip to Colorado planned for mid January. Watch....that will be when a big storm approaches. This is why I don't plan many vacations between October and April. And, this is why people think I am gone so much because almost all of my time off is lumped into the August and September time frame.
Anyway, I use the models and my theory. My theory works much better once we really know the weather pattern. This often happens by December or January. So, it becomes a much better tool very soon.
Gary
Posted by: Jim Yates at December 14, 2006 8:32 AM
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So let's take a trip forward in time to next week, the 18th - 20th, then go back in time 40 - 42 days to Nov 8th. 80 degrees and sunny! 72 degrees and sunny on the 9th. A few light rain events, and a few cool days, but generally at or above average for the next 3 weeks...
So if you trust the cycle, there definitely won't be a major storm on Monday Dec. 18, and it looks like no serious cold until after the holidays.
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Rob,
But it doesn't work that way. You may be right, but remember I believe the same pattern will also be cycling in July. It will only be hot then. You get different specific results every time through the cycle. This is how you can get a one foot snowstorm like last year on December 7th. Then, when the same pattern returned in February that storm was just a shortwave that produced nothing.
If you look at the pattern from 40 days ago there were shortwaves ripping by us. It was dry, but if any one of them is a bit stronger or just slightly different then something major could happen. This is why one shouldn't say there is no chance of a white Christmas. A lot of things can change over just a few days.
Gary
Posted by: Rob at December 14, 2006 9:27 AM
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Hey Gary...don't fret one little bit. We are all waiting for something exciting to happen. Frankly, though, if it's not gonna snow and I mean GOOD snow, not some wimpy 1 or 2 inches, I'd rather have the 60 degrees. There is nothing more depressing than 20 degrees and dry...blech.
Just checked the 10 and 11 day 500mb GFS and i think you need to lower your 3%...sigh.
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Jennifer,
Look again at the new GFS. Don't get too excited.
Gary
Posted by: Jennifer at December 14, 2006 10:12 AM
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Hi Gary. Golly you are very dedicated to your work and especially to your blog. I appreciate your hard work. So, if we are in the 40 day cycle, do you see something big just after Christmas into the New Year's weekend? It has been a long time since we had a New Year's snow storm. We have lived here in Topeka for the last 14 plus years and I can remember one New Year's where we had 1-3 inches on the ground and I think the winter of 92-93 we had a 15 incher that lasted through New year's. Take care, Michael/Topeka
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Michael,
The latest GFS is ridiculous. It shows almost no hope around 192 hours and then a massive storm around Christmas. So, this just indicates that anything can still happen.
Gary
Posted by: michael huffman at December 14, 2006 10:34 AM
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Your stats do not surprise me at all. I have been in this area for 5 years and it has been below to way below average precip teh entier time. Just before i got here in 2001 there was a huge flood. It dried out and has stayed that way basically ever since. So a winter with little to no snow here is normal for me now! Gettign 9 to 12 inches in one storm and then nothing the rest of winter is still little to no snow!
It is kind of like saying well we got 30 inches of rain that one week in march - but not one drop the rest of teh year. You would be near average for the year and in a drought!
So if you want to fantisize, go right ahead. We do that all the time during winter. It is MUCH more fun that the reality of it all!
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Leonard,
We have had a rather wet year or two sprinkled in there. But I agree with your point.
And, we can enjoy a storm for a week before it hits if you think positively and fantasize!
Gary
Posted by: Leonard at December 14, 2006 12:05 PM
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I think it's likely that the shortwaves that missed us in November will miss us again in December.
Now, by the time we get to April or May, the chance of these shortwaves producing something goes up. This area just doesn't get much precip in the winter, but we do (usually) get a lot in spring and early summer.
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Rob,
Not necessarily. Let's see. Slightly stronger and those shortwaves will produce.
Gary
Posted by: Rob at December 14, 2006 12:24 PM
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Gary, I am glad you came around on the GRC. It just didn't fit. I trusted, and I hope you stick to the GRC more in the future. Granted, knowing the pattern doesn't allow for variation due to jet and other factors, but it does help when looking at the models that are continuing to flop. If you buy the pattern from Nov 14th, I am still optimistic to Christmas [+40 days], but we will have to see what the jet does with the location of that storm. I still believe that one, but knew this one was a fluke yesterday based on closer review of the GRC and the maps from November.
Long live the GRC!
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Scott,
It will be intersting for sure. Through all of this I am seeing more and more what this pattern is. And, the last two GFS runs are fitting well with the GRC.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at December 14, 2006 12:43 PM
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Gary,
I find it amusing when the GFS has these fantasy snowstorms in the extended range. The overall pattern becomes much more favorable for us when the Pacific flow slows down and cold air actually has time to move south. What a thought! This pattern also favors storminess in the plains whenever the East Pacific ridge develops and amplifies, sending a downstream trough our way. That has to happen soon? KCI better get some snow before December ends or we will be in big trouble this winter.
Devin
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Devin,
It is so close to being so exciting. This is why it is frustrating. Maybe it will change very soon.
Gary
Posted by: Devin at December 14, 2006 12:52 PM
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Gary,
I was just wondering whether or not you announced the snowflakes winner lastnight. I was watching the 10pm news, but somehow I must have missed it. I know that I guessed the right day, but I just can't remember the time I guessed. I can't wait to see some exciting weather around here, but if it's not gonna be exciting than I'll take the gorgious 60 degree days.
Melanie
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Melanie,
It still may get exciting sometime soon. Just not this weekend. You ended up in third place in the snowflake contest. I just sent you an email! Great Job!
Gary
Posted by: Melanie at December 14, 2006 12:58 PM
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If I remember correctly, we did have a November snow in 2004. That was our first year in KC and I was pretty excited about the snow.
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Miranda,
Yes it did on November 24th. We had thundersnow and 6 inches in about 4 hours.
Gary
Posted by: miranda at December 14, 2006 2:24 PM
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Gary,
How the weather looking as of now. Are you more excited than you were yesterday? I hope it get better than it has been. i want more SNOW!
Andy
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Andy,
It is looking better and better again.
Gary
Posted by: Andy at December 14, 2006 3:21 PM
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Hi Gary,
Earlier in the day someone asked this question and it's something that we've wondered about in our household: "I was curious as to why KCI is the official place for recording Kansas City statistics. It seems as if a more central location such as the Metro area would be more logical."
Any comments? Thanks for doing a great job! We always turn to you for our weather info!
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Melissa,
The official site was downtown before KCI was built. We should have just kept it at the downtown location, but it wasn't up to us.
Gary
Posted by: Melissa in LS at December 14, 2006 3:35 PM
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Hey Gary!
I work up at KCI and it did snow very briefly (about 15 minutes) on 29 NOV 06. The freezing rain changed to sleet and finally to snowflakes around 6pm or so, at the very end of the arctic frontal passage(the day before the upper level low came through). I suppose it is possible the official observing station out near runway 19R may not have received or detected the snow, but the terminal area did!
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TW,
I remember the light snow that fell that evening. But it hasn't snowed yet in December.
Gary
Posted by: TW at December 14, 2006 3:48 PM
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