************
does it look like Appleton city could see any snow from this storm i hope so i have my fingers crossed.
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Daniel,

I don't think so.

Gary

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Hello Gary,
You don't think we will even see flurries? A dusting?
Thanks for your time
Anne
------------------
Anne,

I think the chance is extremely small.

Gary

*********************
Gary,
Looking at the recent GFS model runs and some other models it appears that the Pacific flow continues, keeping the polar jet stream displaced far up to the north. Another thing that I have noted is the height anomalies and temperatre anomalies in Central and Western Canada continue to run much above normal. The winters continue to average warmer than normal, and Minneapolis waited until a few days ago to even receive 1 inch of snow. If only the strong Pacific flow would just stop!
Devin
-----------------------
Devin,

The flow is getting a bit crazy this week. I can't imagine it not locking up for at least a few days sometime soon.

Gary

**********
Gary how does the storm late next week look like? will we get any snow or ice from it?
--------------
Jeremy,

It has all kinds of potential.

Gary

*************
If you watch the storm Tuesday and Wednesday, it really deepens up the East Coast, maybe even bombing out. Kansas City really is getting the raw end of this deal.
-------------------
Michael,

This wasn't suppose to be one of our storms. So, there is hope right around the corner.

Gary

**************
Gary...this thing is almost exactly where the last one was. I think the LRC is better at patterns that we think. The truest test will be Jan 4-10.
------------------------
Scott,

We will take every test and see what happens. I like the trends, and this week's storm is a nice twist in the pattern. Hopefully we will have some exciting weather to talk about. I would like to see another day's worth of trends in the models before I get too excited.

Gary

***************
Gary:

Merry Christmas Eve to you and the KSHB weather team!!! Have a few moments of quite this morning so I have been reading the blog-this is my new relaxation/down time hobby!!!

I'm excited about the weather tomorrow-we may not see any decent snow, but it will be getting colder as the day goes on and fairly breezy so it will feel like 12-25 outside-I also would not be surprised if a few flakes did not fall as the cold air advects down to the surface-if I see one to two flakes and it is cold, I will be happy!!!! Beats 40 or 60 degrees!!!!

I went back and read the blog from 11-15 and to be sure, the similarities are there-I realize that this one similarity does not make evidence for a peer review paper in a journal of meteorology, but you can not deny it. While I am just a hobbyist and a layman, I have been fllowing your theory in general terms for almost 2 years and you can def. see it. I think one problem is that sometimes it is believed the sensible weather at the surface will be exactly the same and that is not the case. I also think that for a layman like myself, it is nearly impossible to figure it out in any detail-I'm not a met and to give you and your team more credit, it can not be easy to pick out the pattern in September. Oh, I can get some very general points-it may be stormy in this week etc. but it takes skill and a tremendous effort to see how the pattern will recycle-that is where the professional status and more than that someone with particular skill and passion to discover-you and the team have been able to that the past 2 years-maybe not perfect, but we will never in our life times figure out weather perfectly-too many variables etc.!!! This is a great tool to add to the met's tool box and I really hope that some time in the near future you can get the data together to publish it-there are several people working on theories to forecast the NAO and AO etc. but this theory should really be one up on them-both of those are 500 mb indicies (I think and by the way, they are following your theory) and your theory when proven, should also be able to help guage those. You deserve the credit among your peers-but again, and I can't stress this enough-not every met in the US or the global community will be able to use it as well as you do-nor, will every lay person be able to understand it (there will not be a LRC for dummies lol!!!) as with every met tool available now including the models, it takes a personal skill/dedication to see it-thus, there will always be skeptics because either A. they can't quite figure it out or B. they just don't want to buy it. As was said above, find those grad students-not only would I give them some mountain dew and beef jerkey, but throw in some M & M's and Red Bull and a good computer and have at it!!!!

Speaking of the theory: After 11-15 we went into a very warm/benin period of weather at the surface (it was what 70 on Thanksgiving??) and just based on that, should have a pretty boring weather from Tuesday-Jan. 8th or so. However, I have not seen nor have I had the time to look at any past 500 or surface maps for that period. The models still want to bring a storm out our way next week-I am pretty much discounting them, accept that there may have been some s/w activity or ULL that came by in Mid Novemeber that did not affect us-if there was, then they too are recycling through and since this is late December and there is a greater thermal gradient, they could be stronger-so while we may not have had a storm affect us in mid November (in the 18th-26th time frame) we could now because things are different-however, using your theory, will help one not jump all over the modles (eg the 6z GFS solution today which keeps a low in Oklahoma for 2 days) and take it as a back burner option because we did have a ripple come across in the pattern in This time frame of the pattern it just didn't get us then but this time it might. Is that even in the right ball park as way for a layman to think about the LRC?

Once again, I have been way to long winded-I just think, from my layman's perspective and from generally watching the weather, that the LRC makes sense and is a darned good theory. I will be excited for you when you can get the time to publish it with the correct data etc. Just remember,even when you get it published and have the data to support it, it will always take someone with the right dedication and "eye" to make it work well (two things you have and two things your team has-there is a reason they are working with you!!!) and the skeptics will always say well hey, it should have snowed this week because it did 30 days ago!!!

By the way, I like the way the cycle is going-two years ago it was 70 days-last year 60-this year 40-hey maybe we can get back by the year 2012 where we can get 2-3 episodes in a week???!!!!

I'm sorry again this is so longwinded-you should hear me talk about history and politics to my students-wow-lol!!! Thanks for reading and have a great Christmas-if I see one flake fall tomorrow morning due to CAA I will blog and take a picture!!!!
---------------------------
Bill,

There are differences each time through the cycle, but the pattern still winds up and starts again. This time through, and Jeff Penner & I thought this was likely, the Big trough in the Gulf of Alaska is flatter allowing for more ridging at higher latitudes. This is why we may be having this storm as I responded to your last comment.

And, we don't need a 20 day cycle to have a lot of storm systems. We just need a powerful long wave trough set up through down from Montana through eastern Colorado to New Mexico. This would allow so many more strong storm systems within the cycle. We just haven't had one set up there since 1992-93. I thought there was potential this year because we do have a mean low latitude ridge off the California coast at145 west. This is why I expected strong upper lows to close off in Arizona or New Mexico and I was worried about Southern California getting wet this season as storm systems may slide by them. Well, guess what. This is what has been happening. No surprise at all to me.

So, there is hope yet this season.

Gary

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Gary:

Still quite around here, so I found a site to get past 500 maps etc. Have had it book marked, just forgot about it!!

A couple of interesting things that I think I see-of course there is a 95% chance that I could be totally misreading them!!!

1. on 11-8-06 there was a 500 mp ULL that skirted to our south-the ULL that just passed us Tuesday-Friday fits the 40 day time frame-of course, both had different effects on our sensible weather and both tracked differently, but there was an ULL around 40 days ago that came out of the SW US.

2. The storm that is now forming in the southern stream is in the gulf where as the one in November looks to me like it formed in Western Texas and skirted across Northern Arkansas (intresting that both scenarios now and then had s/w energy diving from the North which you showed in yesterday's blog!!)-the storm now forming looks to be stronger and phases better and if it would take the November track and the northern and southern energy phased in Oklahoma (as it looks like happened in November-this is just much stronger now) we would see some snow-Just intresting how the themes are there, but that the sensible weather is different because the time of year is different and there are little things different in the atmosphere.

3. We did have some energy ripple through here in the November 18-22nd time frame-didn't do much to our weather on the surface, but, maybe the models are onto something as this time through, haveing better thermal gradients etc. it may be stronger.

I'm basically just trying to learn here and was just wondering if any of this makes any sense. By the way, it is alot of fun to look at the old maps of the arctic front from the end of November and beginning of December-what a powerhouse set up that was!!!!! Thanks again for reading!!!
--------------------------
Bill,

It all makes sense. And, this is where I lose most meteorologists. The weather pattern isn't identical every time through the cycle. It is very closely related and the main features are almost always there in some form, but different things still happen depending on the time of the year. When I first came up with my theory I thought there was about a 10-20% part of the pattern that was completely out of the box, but then despite the scrambling the overall pattern kept cycling. But, through the years I have found that it is really the entire pattern that keeps cycling and you can find out reasons for that 10-20%. This next storm is tough to find as we are suppose to go into a ridge. But, that ridge may very well be going to our north in Canada due to the more split nature this time through the cycle, which opens the door for the big cut off underneath the ridge, if this makes sense? I simplify the entire pattern to make sense in forecasting it, but there is rather obviously much more to it than I even know.

The 06z GFS has an Arctic blast on it, but I don't have confidence in it as it is the first run to do it.

Let's hope for something exciting this week. It appears we will get a bonus storm system, if it just doesn't dig too far south.

Gary

***************
Gary,

Thanks for taking the time to answer questions regarding your theory. The part I take issue with is how this theory is so flexible and variable that it leaves room for basically any solution, thus the shaping of the data seems to be the method by which the 'cycle' is justified. For example, Today you wrote:

"This next storm is tough to find as we are suppose to go into a ridge. But, that ridge may very well be going to our north in Canada due to the more split nature this time through the cycle, which opens the door for the big cut off underneath the ridge, if this makes sense?"

In that statement, you are basically saying that if the theory holds, there should be a ridge (high pressure) here during a given part of the cycle...but you're also leaving the door open for a cut-off low with the ridge moving hundreds of miles to the north, leaving room for a low in the location where the ridge was during this part of the cycle ... much the opposite of a ridge. If your theory leaves rooom to shift the major upper level features several hundred miles in any direction, how does this theory predict anything? If the large-scale features - the driving forces - of the 500mb chart can be shifted hundreds of miles and strengthened or weakened, how does any cycle exist?

(I realize part of your theory is the variance in the surface weather so I won't even reference surface weather - only these upper level features which you use as evidence of your cycle theory.)

It is this variance that, in my view, keeps this theory from holding water.

With such variance, I could literally make today's 500mb chart line up with virtually any other day by justifying it with lose interpretations as "oh, that trough is over to the west a bit and less pronounced and stacked whereas the other was to our east and tilted, meanwhile that high is a bit to the north and stronger..."

As a fellow degreed meteorologist, I too live and breath the weather - it is a huge part of my life. Don't get me wrong - I too would love to find cycles and patterns in the chaotic world of weather - I look for them all the time. It is great to see you have a lot of "laypeople" around this blog that back your theory. I'd love to hear what some other meteorologists have to say.

Thank you again for your great work and dedication. You can count me as another loyal viewer who appreciates your passion, accuracy, and precision when it comes to relaying the daily weather story.
---------------------------
Jake,

O.K. I understand exactly what you are saying. There is often something out of the box that happens through the cycle. But, as I struggle for an explanation of one storm at times, MOST of the time everything lines up more with the cycle. You can scramble everything up and then suddenly you are back to the beginning of the cycle again. So, I am not just making this up. I thought the second time through the cycle we could have a variance due to the time of the year we are in and a few other factors. But, as we go through the cycle a third, then fourth, and fifth time, then I can show you how it all ended up coming together. There is something there that I have come up with. Keep reading and as we go through the next few weeks, months, and years I believe you will see it even more. Last year we had the big storm on December 7th. It was a huge upper low. The next time through the cycle, it was also cold and I was anticipating that storm returning. And, it did. It was just a fast moving shortwave that didn't tap the northern branch energy. And, as a result we had high clouds. But, I could spend a few hours showing you how it was really the same storm. Just looking at the 500 mb charts with this situation you would say "no way". I understand this, but it was there. And, I was very disappointed because it was so close to doing it again.

Anyway, let's just enjoy the daily changes, the weekly changes, and we can still wonder about my theory together. I firmly believe in it, and I see your concerns. I really do. Just keep your mind open.

I will be blogging about this rather exciting storm this week. Whether it fits into the pattern or not doesn't matter at this moment. I just love it when we have these precipitation chances. This storm has all kinds of potential for a winter storm and a lot of precipitation. More in a blog later today.

Gary

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Gary,

To me, reading your blog is as essential to the beginning of my day as reading the morning newspaper. Thank you for providing this type of venue! Thanks also for your tremendous dedication in keeping the site current; especially on your off days.

Quick couple of questions about your theory: Your theory states the weather pattern sets up between Oct. 10 and Nov. 10 and then recycles for the remainder of the year. I've read your explanations of how the pattern cycles, but my bigger question is Why? I'm not a meteorologist; just curious. Why does the pattern pick Oct. 10-Nov. 10 to set up? Is there something special about that specific time of year or is it just luck of the draw? Also, if the pattern sets up once a year and then recycles for a period of one year, is it also possible that yearly patterns can be recycled every so often or is each year unique? You mentioned El Nino may influence the weather pattern, but not set it up. Is there some other trigger that causes the pattern to set up? If so, can that lead to the pattern repeating itself in future years with some predictability?

Sorry for so many questions, but I've wondered and finally worked up the courage to ask.

Merry Christmas!!
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Brad,

Great questions and thank you for participating. Thanks for the kind comments as well.

First of all let me address the question about the timing of the pattern setting up between October 10th and November 10th. It makes sense. The jet stream retreats to the north during the spring and summer and then begins its return southward during September and October. So, as the jet stream is sagging south and strengthening it makes sense that a new pattern could set up about this time, which would be by sometime in October.

I still haven't found a reason of why it cycles and every year is very different, but unique. There must be a reason. And, I may figure it out some day. But, I still know that it happens.

It is great getting some feedback, involvement, questions from the bloggers. It makes you think and through this synergy we can possibly come up with the answers.

Gary

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Gary,

Thanks for the explanation! Timing of the jet stream migration makes sense. For every effect, there is a cause with a predictable outcome. I'm fascinated by your theory because I strongly believe the overall weather pattern is not random. One day you will discover the root of our overall weather pattern and much benefit will be gained. Much more so than just having a weather model named after you. First, from your work we will gain a clear understanding of how our climate works. Second, extreme accurate long-rang forecasting will be possible. The implications of both are many.

I think the main reason some people do not believe in your theory is because they feel neither of the above outcomes are possible.

I believe a solution is possible. It has to exist because of the "cause and effect" rule. You're on the right track and it's exciting to be at the point in time right before discovery. Very few opportunities like this remain. It will happen. It's just a matter of when.

Good luck! We'll all be waiting (hope this isn't too much expectation to carry!).

Brad
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Brad,

Thank you for the support. Something is happening and every year is unique. We learn more every day.

Gary

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Merry Christmas All!

Gary, Team... I hate to ask since I know you're busy taking care of our local forecasts, but my wife has to make an emergency trip up to Nebraska and I was wondering what the weather will be like tomorrow and through the week. I've been on a couple of TV stations' web sites up there and (gee what a surprise) they don't agree. I'm mostly concerned about her drive up - probably on Tuesday, but she might leave tomorrow too! She's headed to about 2 hours NW of Omaha.

Many thanks for any insight! - Mike
-------------------------
Mike,

We have to watch Thursday as a storm approaches. I am not sure if it is rain or snow at this moment for Nebraska.

Gary

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How does a blocking pattern fit with the cycle? One would tend to think that the block would slow down the cycle, I know that once the cycle is set it doesn't lengthen or shorten so I was curious.BTW this blog is great, when I was little I would have never guessed that one day I could be "talking" with other people who love the weather and meteorologists from my favorite T.V. station and even other meteorologists from other cities all from my home! Thanks for setting this blog up and for communicating with us!!!
Oh, and Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and everybody on the weather team and the commenters on the blog!!
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!!
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Nick,

Merry Christmas to you and your family as well. Thanks!

Almost every year the pattern blocks up at some point. It is hard to explain and each time through the cycle I will say "give or take a few days". The cycle will still repeat, almost right on schedule. We will have to see it happen and then you will be able to see what I am talking about.

Gary

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Ahhh...this blog is coming along nicely. I am liking what I see in the variety of bloggers. I am refreshed in the opportunity to learn.

The LRC is getting alot of pub lately. Very nice. I am going to step away from the feature part of the theory, and reiterate that the cycle seems consistant. Regardless of the longwave or even the amplitudes, the same events are still happening at a 40 day interval. I would not rely on this for forecasting specific events, but would rely on this for forecasting the potential of a repeat performance.

I am huge into believing in cojoined relationships..and as in the earlier blog, I don't believe the LRC stands alone. I am trying to get my head around the larger or macro relationships first. Starting form the Coriolis Effect to the transfer of energy from the equator to the poles...I believe this is the key process that initiates the cycle...I don't know how it can be quantified yet, but I believe that is the process. Additonally, I believe that the ocean behavior affects the amplitude of the patterns. Gary, I know we differ on our beliefs of the ocean impacts, but think this can really affect the jet and other key features of the LRC.

Unlike some, I don't view the amplitude factor as strong in the LRC. Regardless of amplitude...it is there. I would rather look at the features that define the amplitude than the tool to reflect it as a better guide to understand how we may be affected by the patterns.
Anyway...no snow to look forward to for a bit...time to rest.

Happy Holidays, All!

---------------------
Scott,

Nice points. I still believe that the ocean anamolies affect the pattern, but once again they don't affect the longwaves. Something bigger is happening. I could be wrong, but at this point I doubt it.

Happy Holidays!!!!!!!! I will blog about the trend in the late week storm on Christmas morning. It all of a sudden is trying to fit in better.

Gary

**************
Hey Gary I looked at the latest GFS and it has just a little bit of precip down here in Appleton City, could this be true. Maybe some flurries?
------------------
Daniel,

Amazingly, it will be too warm. And, I think it will stay dry.

Gary

**************
What are the chances that the rain in southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas will continue to move to the North and effect our viewing area?
----------------------
Charles,

It is amazing, but there is no chance from this storm.

Gary

***********************
OK since you are so focused on us here int he midewest, naturally I will ask about hte east coast. Do you see any noreasters this winter at all? Since it is all a pattern, I have not seen any storms over the past few months in ht eright place.

This next storm has some characteristics but is to far inland to produce the coastal snows of years past.

Your thoughts please?

Thanks and Merry Christmas!
-----------------------
Leonard,

It looks very unlikely to have many Noreasters this season. If we get an Arctic airmass down here there would be a chance, but otherwise probably not too many chances.

Gary

*******************
Hello Gary,
If we see flurries tonight into tomorrow morning, is it possible to see aleast a dusting?
-----------------------
Anne,

You should know by now that if there was any chance I would certainly be talking about it. Watch out for the end of the week.

Gary

*****************
Gary,

I can feel it its gonna be a Christmas Miracle. The cold front is gonna come through here and drop our temps below freezing than the huge glob of rain just south of here will move north and we will have a MAJOR SNOWSTORM.
----------------------------
Daniel,

The latest GFS has a massive snowstorm here on Saturday. But, it is just fantasy at this point. So, maybe an end of the year miracle.

Gary

***************
Merry Christmas weather team!

There seems to be some precip up in Nebraska. Is any of this reaching the ground?
-----------------------
Ben,

It is all aloft. We just don't have a chance out of this storm.

Gary

**********************
Gary Merry Christmas to you and the team,

I was just looking at the GFS since you mentioned it. Wow thats one heck of a snowstorm. Does the storm fit the pattern. Or could u give me the site to look back at previous model runs.
----------------------------
Daniel,

This storm is hard to find on the cycle. It fits with the long term longwave troughs and ridges that I believe are in play, but the only thing that would make sense is that we are getting some crazy higher amplitude troughs and ridges and it is masking the overall pattern a bit.

I don't mind at all. I think we would all enjoy an "out of the box" storm system. Let's see how it looks by Christmas night when I am doing the 10 PM newscast. It has been changing the past few days. But, it isn't that far away.

Gary

*************
Gary:

Good Morning and Merry Christmas!!!! Waiting for my 2 boys to wake up and I am too excited to sleep myself!!! (Been up for a couple of hours) Feels great out this morning with the breezy North West winds-I meant to mention that yesterday morning was gorgeous outside with all the frost!!!!!

I think it looks pretty good that there will be a storm of some sort comming across the southern plains this week-the models are in pretty good agreement about it and to give credit, they did a good job of pegging (not to mention the LRC!!!) the track of the current low in the gulf. My fear is that there will not be enough cold air here for alot of snow but to be sure, the details will change several times in the next 2 days-I would just feel better if we already had some cold air in place. However, it is nice to have two weather makers with in a week of each other and I sure will take the rain!!!! Reagrading the LRC and this storm: if you look 40 days ago, the ridge set up over us-now, it is much further west but the ridge is there-also, maybe the Nino is having more influence on the pattern at this time and thus the exact locations of ridges and troughs are a bit different...just throwing out a layman's idea!!!! I am going to hope and hope hard, that we get some colder air in here in time to get some snow out of this(there is enough cold air to the North to tap for snow-it may not be arctic, but there is teens and 20's to our North)-again, I would just feel better if cold air was here already or if this was riding up a cold front.

Well, again, I went on way too long-My main idea was just to wish everybody at the station and on the blog Merry Christmas-it may not have snowed, but at least the temps. are seasonal!!!! Have a great Christmas!!!!!
------------------
Bill,

Great observations. You really know weather well. One of the ways we win in forecasting most of the time is sitting there in your statements. It really doesn't matter what it looks like now. Well, it matters, but you just can't say it will be too warm and so there is "no chance of snow" like many forecasters will say. It may very well be too warm as we approach the end of the week, but as I say all of the time.........the weather pattern is always in transition. This storm is looking quite wet at this time. But, yesterday morning the storm was caught in the pattern of that time. So, the models dove the storm into Mexico, well southwest of us. By last night, it was caught in the pattern that was forecast at that time and thus took on another look and suddenly we thought about snow. And, today it will be caught in what the computer models are forecasting currently and we will get another solution. Do you see my point? By Tuesday or Wednesday, it will be close enough to rely on the weather pattern being predicted, but it will still change. So, just leave the door open when forecasting even two days out. Two days before our big snowstorm where you were on the edge of it a few weeks ago, the other forecasters in town ruled OUT the chance of snow at all. They were very wrong. I wish my promotions department could have jumped on that one. Then everyone was pretty much going for the ice storm and snowstorm the next day.

Merry Christmas to you and your family. I am going back to take a nap. I will blog about this storm later this morning.

Gary