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I'm a believer! I think it's great actually that you've been able to decipher this and work with it the way you do. You'll get the recognition from your peers, I'm sure. Tho' Scott named it the GRC, I can see it becoming the LRC (Lezak Recurring Cycle) or maybe better, the Lezak Model. Good luck!

Thanks for doing such a fine job on-air and on this blog!

Mike
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Mike,

I think you have come up with the new name. We should rename it the LRC. Scott will understand as he will have still had a major part in the naming.

Anyway, isn't it amazing. I would rather have this storm dig harder into western Kansas and then it would be our area that gets the big storm. But, now we know that it wouldn't fit into the GRC, or now LRC. But, it only doesn't fit into this part of the 40 day cycle. There are other exciting times to come.

Gary

Gary,

I believe in your cycle, I just can't read these maps for some reason. I can see what the one above it means somewhat, but I don't understand how to figure the ones out that are like 3 days away. Guess this is why I do not have your job. hehe.
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Keri,

We will try to make it clear so you can understand. It is rather complex. I just want you to look at the upper low in Arkansas and southern Missouri, and compare that to the map from 40 days ago. I say it is not a coincidence.

Gary

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Gary,

Yes, I'm a skeptic. I feel you have an interesting view of long-range forecasting and I'll give you credit for being a very accurate short- and mid-range forecaster. I just don't buy into this cycle theory.

Regarding the theory as a whole, what mechanism do you theorize drives such a repeating pattern? Absent any driving mechanism, it looks more like a forcing of the data into a predetermined pattern. This smells of data manipulation, in my view.

The fact remains that when I take today's 500mb chart, it doesn't line up with the 500mb chart from 40 days ago. OK, so maybe some features are generally co-located, but the same could be said for other days of the season too - not just 40 days ago. If it did line up exactly, couldn't you virtually always know what the 500mb chart would look like for each of the next 40 days?

Furthermore, I am eager to see some refereed research done on this theory. I know you have stated you have not published the work, but are you preparing a formal academic paper for submission? It is difficult to discuss your theory in depth when the only details of it are understandably-limited blog posts. You have repeatedly elaborated on some individual details of it, while leaving others out as being 'too involved and complicated to blog about'. Without seeing the whole picture, it is difficult for one to intellectually critique it, which you seem to be asking for in this "Are you a skeptic?" post.

When I look at the maps you posted, I will admit that I see similarities with the storm SE of KC. Similar alignment, similar trough axis, etc... But that is a small portion of the map. What about the rest of the map?

1. What about the Aleutian low that was very pronounced on November 16th but is virtually non-existent on the December 26th prog?

2. What about the strong trough off the coast of Nova Scotia that is progged for 12/26, but was non-existent in November? These are not small features - fine details - of the overall pattern, these are driving forces.

In a nutshell, while I do believe the large-scale pattern is an integral part of any mid- to long-range forecast, I fail to see strong supporting evidence that the long wave pattern is in a repeating cycle that can be nailed down to a given number of days each year.

Thank you for taking the time to respond to questions.
-----------------------
Jake,

Your questions are reasonable and I will answer them. It is not data manipulation as you stated. I can see why you would think that but we discovered the high likelyhood that this is a 40 day cycle a few weeks ago already. The weather pattern isn't exactly the same, line for line, trough for trough, ridge for ridge, high amplitude or low amplitude every time through the cycle. This is where it drives me a bit crazy at times. But, overall it is the same. I live and breath it every minute of every day. And, I am not alone. There are a few others on board with me and they aren't just brainwashed, they see it too.

Just looking at the maps I am comparing here is a great example of how things can be different each time through the cycle. The Aleution low that was very deep on the last cycle is now just a whimper of a trough this time. But, it is there. The feature just is less pronounced. Also, the Nova Scotia trough is there as well, a bit less pronounced as well. This is where I lose so many. I can see the similarities. Others can't. Our trough is almost perfectly aligned but the other features are certainly up for debate. I just would debate that they are there. And, the next time through they may be stronger and our storm could be weaker. Wait until I explain how on July 1st it is still the same pattern. There will be only one or two lines across the United States and yet the pattern is still cycling. I know I am probably losing you now.

The bottom line is I need to do more research. I went down to the University of Oklahoma and showed my theory to Dr. Fred Carr, the head of the Department of Meteorology. He gave me some ideas to further my research. I have done very preliminary work on graphing data plots of 500 mb heights at locations across the northern Hemisphere. I just haven't had the time. I must get a grad student or two to do research with me. After I get the graphs done I should be able to show the cycle and how it is different each year, but consistent for that year. Then, I can begin writing my paper and publish my findings.

Hopefully I will have time in the next year to do this. There is something there. I am convinced of it. But, you are in the majority when I talk of my peers who are skeptical. One of these days, hopefully soon, I will get to that next level of evidence, and a first hypothesis of what may be contributing to this "organized chaos" in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

Enough for now. Thank you for acknowledging our accurate forecasts in the shorter term. It is always tough to predict what will happen days away. So, this long range stuff should not be taken too seriously on the specific forecasts. Do I want my winter forecast to verify? Yes, but more importantly is the fact I believe the theory is in play and it has happened again. And, I believe it has.

Gary

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Sure looks like you're on to something, Gary.
By when will you be able to test your theory versus the storm of 11/30 and 12/1? Right after New Year's Day a storm should start showing up on the seven-day, right?
If a storm does develop, would you expect it to be stronger or weaker, more north or more south? Does the stronger jet of January vs November effect your projection?
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Craig,

It should start showing up within a week or so. The models may not pick up on the potential until we move into January. We will see how they do, and whether it happens or not. It always blows me away when the pattern does cycle and storm systems return. But, sometimes they are weaker and then I have to explain why nothing happened the second time through. Why can't it be a bit stronger? If it is then there will be no explaining. I just don't know enough at this time to say whether it will be stronger, weaker or close to the same.

Gary

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Gary,

I am confused. Are you saying that since this storm is so similar to the one on 11/15 that we might get the same snow totals as that storm produced? We are in Olathe so we had about 9 inches. Or are you saying that "someone" will get a big snow storm, just not the KC metro? Thanks for all you do! :)

~Lisa
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Lisa,

The storm on November 15th went by us and produced NOTHING. It was the storm two weeks later that produced the ice and snow.

Gary

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Gary we would like to see some snow on christmas day lets hope something wierd happens and it snows on christmas day this is weather anything could happen.
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Jeremy,

There is some hope, but it is slim.

Gary

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Dear gary, what are all these many exciting times we have had 1 storm this season ihope it gets more active than this thanks.
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John,

It probably won't get more exciting than it is now. So, we have some storm systems that will occur this season, but unless a block forms in this years weather pattern we will be stuck with what we have. One storm every two to three weeks at best.

Gary

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Gary,

Count me in as a believer.

I've been interested in weather since the 60's when I thought long and hard about making a career of it, but at that time opportunties in the field were relatively limited so I went down another path..but I digress.

Anyway, since those days I've always felt there were underlying weather patterns, quite possibly several within a pattern that took place and could never understand why no one seemed to pick up on them, as it seemed and felt obvious to me.

I also have no doubt that there are similar cycles/patterns across the globe as I can't envision that it is just us here in flyover county that are in one.

The true mystery is what/which factors are the driving force in the overall weather of the world that starts & ends them.

And in that light I find it truly enjoyable to watch you pursue and I know eventually prove what I always thought and felt was there...cause down the road there will be a bunch of us that will be able to say 'We knew Gary when.....

Now go have a great Christmas.

Bob
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Bob,

Thanks for the support. We have one skeptic that has spoken up so far. And his questions are what I here all of the time. They are very valid questions and this is why I must continue to pursue this. But, at the same time I have learned to not talk too much about it. We do in the blog talk about it, but the bottom line is................we just want some exciting weather to enjoy. So, let's hope for a storm in that first half of January and worry about the theory later.

Gary

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Gary-I am want to know if I am understanding this correctly. The Nov.30th Dec. 1 storm will reappear 40 days from then, however depending upon the strength of the storm, the moisture and the temps, we may not see much of a storm. Also, like the last storm, it missed us here in the Northland, but 40 days from that storm another could come and it could nail us this time. Is this correct?
The other weather teams are just now putting a chance of snow for Sun-Mon. Way to go for having it there a week ago and staying with it. Even if we dont see any, you still had it there before anyone else did. Merry Christmas.
---------------
Ann,

The storm did not miss the northland. Only the snow part of that storm missed the northland. You had thunderstorms and an ice storm with more than 2 inches of liquid. Then, the snow missed you.

And, the cold came down because of that part of the pattern we were in, so I expect something similar to happen.

Gary

****************
Gary since we didn't have any snow 40 days ago and 40 days later we see a chance, could it be that every OTHER 40 days we could and couldn't get snow? I sort of see the alikeness of 40 days. Plus, since you are the ONLY one in KC who has their own weather theory, is everything going to what you predicted it would be. I know we ALL want the snow and Christmas is only 2 days away. But, to me, we're just going to have to wait and see, wait for the new data to come out and see what it tells us. Finally, with all of this, is the chance of a White Christmas going UP from a 15% chance.

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Ahhh...the LRC now, huh? Ok. This is a good blog entry. Yes, Gary...I can see your LRC to a point..and to the extent I do believe in cycling patterns. I would also agree with Jake to the extent that for some of us junkies, we need a bit more detail. The compromise is what I have been working on. Knowing the premise, and the fact certain features are prominant, I can map these on my own. I can see the troughs, ridges, and central H/L pressures. I do see trends within the LRC, but the amplitude is not constant within the LRC. To that extent, I have depriortized this piece a bit to focus on the repetitive pattern which I do strongly believe in. But then again, that was evident as I saw the SMC or any patterns related to other times that experienced similar things. With this, this is where I think the other features that are measured in the oscilation features may tie into the LRC. This I believe has a direct impact to the amplitude of the above mentioned features. So..between the ENSO, NAO, EPO, and other oscilations, the LRC, and models to a lessor extent, I believe Long Range Forecasting is possible, though difficult... I am looking to investigate something similar in the summer months with the tropics.

All that being said, I should mention this is not to minimize the LRC, as I believe this is a key and prominent theory. I just think it needs more attention and research.

Should be easy enough for a grad student, and about a terabyte of space for maps. Throw em in a room for a month with Mt. Dew and some beef jerky...should do the trick!
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Scott,

This definitely needs more attention and research. We will know more each year, but we can force the issue by doing some of the research soon.

Gary

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I see exactly what you are saying, the features cycle, but they can and do "flex" around each time through the cycle, but there is a cycle it's not just total chaos.
I sure hope the storm in early January is not weaker because it is the ONLY storm to give St. Joe ANY significant winter precip so far and yes when I'm an old man I can say I knew the guy behind the LRC!!!
Thanks for your time!
Nick(a beliver) in St. Joe!
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Nick,

Thanks, now let's just get another storm.

Gary

*******************************
Gary,
I believe in your theory. The similarities are amazing.
I do not have any confidence at all right now in the models. The 6Z and the 12Z were almost completely different after day 5. I still have some serious concerns about the strong Pacific flow preventing the plains from seeing arctic cold air and snow chances.
However, your theory would suggest some cold and snow is likely in the first two weeks of January.
Devin
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Devin,

Yes indeed. It has been very tough stopping that Pacific flow. I am hoping it blocks up sometime this winter.

Gary

*************************
Gary have a great Christmas. I have always been a believer in your theory. It just gets frustrating for me to see the storm systems form and not produce. Are you hoping for more action in January and or February? Also I here you saying that even though we are in a 40 day cycle we have a chance of storms at least twice within the main cycle? Thanks again for your forecasting. Continue to move on with research! Michael/Topeka
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Michael,

I am always hoping for it to produce more as we move into January and February. We must wait and see.

Gary

**********
Gary,

I know that sometimes it boggles you as to why some meterologists don't believe in your theory. Have you ever thought of this? If every meteorologist on the face of this planet believed and started forecasting off of your theory, then everyone would pretty much have the same outcome and everyone would be number one in forecasting weather. Correct? If every meteorologist said you know Gary, what you have is the correct answer, then where would you be? You live and breathe weather I believe you said and I think it is partly because of your theory. So, I guess what I want to know is, do you really want everyone to see it, then you have nothing to strive for anymore, or would you rather have people doubt you, so that you can dig into it further, finding even more reasons on why the theory is true, and maybe, just one day, hit the ultimate goal and know exactly why the weather works the way it does and how it comes to be? Just my thoughts on it.
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Keri,

Yes, I do want everyone to see it. If you make a discovery then you should not keep it to yourself. It would be years before anyone else would really believe it anyway. And, would they know how to use it. I have been trying to use it for years now. And, it has helped. But, not all of the time.

Thanks for the support as usual! Good points.

Gary

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Please tell me it's not just me that finds the "40" part of this funny (kind of funny "haha" and kind of funny "strange"). You know, considering the number 40 and it's role/significance in religion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40_(number)#In_religion

Just thought it was...a funny coincidence.

Jay

P.S. I need more evidence or presentation of the evidence from years past before I'm a firm believer. I also need more snow before I'll be happy with this winter!
----------------------
Jay,

I agree with you on needing more snow before we are happy with this snow season.

Last year was a 60-62 day cycle. The year before that was roughly 74 days.

So, it varies from year to year. I have the evidence.

Gary

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GARY
Hey bud i live here in Sedalia i have dish network so my local channels are Kansas City
I watch you guys as far as your weather pattern so far so good you guys get it right more often than not.
THANKS KEEP IT UP
AND HAVE A GREAT CHRISTMAS
JIM
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Jim,

Thank you so much! Sometimes I stand in front of Sedalia. I will try to move out of the way.

Gary

*********************
Gary, the LRC is a good theory but does this theory work anywhere in the world? Is your theory only for the Midwest? I'm not really a skeptic, I'm only concerned that all professionals and us amateurs are generally concerned about micro forecasting. The LRC theory is really about climatology and is possibly argued that this is based on the Midwest charts for the past years.
If the LRC sets up in late December and early January, when does this pattern end and start over- certainly not until next December. To me, it would make sense patterns would generally begin and end with the equinox and soltice's. Having said that, you should have known if your pattern was in the right direction since a year ago and I belive you did know and that it was amazingly close throughout the year.
You have a lot of fine tuning to do and it may take you the rest of your life to do it.
You do need to write a paper and make it available for us bloggers and everyone who wants to download or copy it. I would certainly lable the paper, "Very Preliminary LRC Theory"
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Gary,

I have actually been working on this for about 15 years already. It is just I have firmed up my beliefs in the past three years with more compelling evidence. The pattern sets up in the fall and continues until late summer. AND, it will be dependable for the entire northern hemisphere, especially the mid latitudes.

Gary

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Gary,
I am a believer, but I don't understand why no one has ever figured this out before (not that you aren't brilliant) :) I have lived here in KCK almost all of my life and I can see the patterns of the weather (ie the year of the floods) so why can't everyone else. I hope that someday your theory becomes proven fact and that you get the credit you deserve.
Colleen
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Colleen,

It is amazing isn't it. There have been a few meteorologists in the past that have had some ideas about cycling weather patterns, but I can show it each year with the upper level charts. We will be doing a lot more research in the next year.

Gary