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Gary, I will send you my rain report from Berryton, Ks after 4:30 this afternoon. Looking forward to your blog concerning colder air. What time does winter offically begin on Friday? Thanks, Michael/Topeka
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Michael,

Winter begins at 6:22 PM Thursday. Looking forward to your rain report. I am approaching one inch before noon. Awesome!

Gary

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Hello Gary,
On Thursday night how many hour of precip. at the most are we looking at?Mainly snow,freezing rain, or sleet at this time? Thanks
Anne
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Anne,

Just north of the upper low there may be a few hours. South of the upper low maybe one hour.

But, it may not be snow. It could be too warm.

Gary

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I can verify the blizzard conditions in eastern Colorado. I-70 is shut down from here to Denver (we are some of the fortunate ones who have a hotel room)and Denver is expecting up to 24" by tomorrow morning. I'd be happy to send some of this snow to all the snow lovers in KC right now!
Peggy
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Peggy,

We are jealous. This is one big storm.

Gary

Hello Mr. Lezak, nice to see the rain.
The rain seems to end right around Wichita.
Do you think that it will rain until late tonight or late this afternoon?
Hows the snow looking for Thursday night?
Any chance at all of seeing some minor accumulations?

I am glad the first half of this cycle of the GRC is over. This part is hard to define. The second half is starting which works with the SMCv.2. I will have to take some time to trend the first 20 days to get the full cycle defined by the cycling storms.

Yes, I am very excited about the 10th of Jan. That should be the replay of Nov 27-30. We will see.

Also, another thought...I think that looking at the daily maps from the pole perspective is very intriguing of actually seeing the GRC in action as you can see the "star" pattern of troughs cycling around the pole. If time permits, I would love to map that to the GRC, and the subsequent smaller cycles to see if it could be used as a comprehensive guide to the winter and spring. Who knows...maybe it can be simplified. Or not.

Regardless, I love to see you using the GRC to speak of Jan 10th, way before the models can see it. Nice use of the GRC! Now...go on the newscast with it so everyone can believe!

We are leaving to drive to Albuquerque very early tomorrow morning. I know that they just had 7 inches+ of snow. Are we getting the same storm here (the rotating one)? What kind of weather will we experience driving to Wichita, Amarillo, then due West to ABQ? (Sorry we'll miss any white Christmas as we'll be in San Diego - but we look forward to that next storm in January)Thanks!

What are the chances of accumulating snow north of I 70 and south of St. Joseph I know that the farther north you go the more snow you should see is north of KC far enough?

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Gary I may have to wait like you said for you to answer this question based on your theory, but the blizzard warnings by the Kansas/Colorado border, where is the Low Pressure System at? If it is where it is, could the possibilty of snow on Thu-Fri go up from 50%. And will the possibilty of a White Christmas go up too? One final note, based on what the records, when was the last time Kansas City had a true white Christmas? If we know that we can subtract that year from 2006 and see MAYBE how many years apart it is, and maybe that can tell us how many years go by until we have a white Christmas. Hopefully, its OUR TURN!
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Alden,

This is a powerful storm. If the upper low tracks south of us then we may see a few hours of snow. This is what we are still uncertain about.

Gary

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Report from Fort Collins, CO: heavy snow now falling and the blizzard warning now seems to be materializing (I had my doubts late last night as the skies were still clear here). One thing, we have had cold air in place for a few days already, so this storm just slammed into it.

Not trying to make anyone there envious - be thankful for your rain. We've been so dry for so long that I'll gladly take rain or snow, just so its wet. Due to our elevation if we get anything this time of year it's almost always snow...
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Doug,

Enjoy it and be careful. Let us know how much you end up with. It is raining rather heavily around here.

Gary

The dry slot is moving across Kansas When do you think the rain will move out?

Gary
Glad to see you getting some much needed rain and also for the Denver area. Skiers should be happy. Here in western Mn. we look to be on the edge of this system, on the northwest side. I hope we do get something. Looking forward to your updates and really like the blog.
Rod

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Gary, what do you anticipate for a drive to Omaha on Friday morning/afternoon?
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Katie,

The afternoon will be dry, but the morning may have some mixture of precipitation between here and Omaha.

Gary

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Looking at your forecast graphic, I see you took snow out all together for Christmas....

Whatcha seein?
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Scott,

The amazing thing is the storm that happened 40 days ago missed us as it developed over Arkansas. Watch, this one will do the same thing. All of the computer solutions of the past week didn't make sense and now they do. So, there is actually still a chance as the waves dig into Kansas or Missouri and start the development of the system to our southeast. We have to watch them carefully, but the chance is rather slim.

We will be able to use the theory much more now that we have the pattern down! It is just difficult until you really go through one or two cycles.

Gary

Gary,
A good soaking rain in Overland Park with over an inch at my house.
The latest SSTs in the Eastern Pacific indicate that El Nino conditions may be weakening. The SST anomalies in regions 1&2 are now below 1.0C above average.
Are you still seeing better opportunities for arctic air and snowfall in January? I am hoping this January is much more exciting than this past January. Thanks.
Devin

.75 in st joe

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Does it look like down here in Appleton City could see snow Christmas Eve? do we have any chance for any winter precip tomorrow
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Daniel,

Thursday will be dry and Christmas Eve will have to be watched.

Gary

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hey gary ithouht you wher going to blog about your thoughts on the rest of winter and merry christmas.
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John,

It has been a very tough day around the television station, and I am just now sitting down and catching up. I plan on blogging later when I am done with the newscast at 10 PM.

Gary

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Gary,

Rainfall report from my corner of SW Lawrence has us at 1.17", which is pretty darn nice.

And we would glady take that much again as we are still some 6.44" below what is average for our part of the world.

Bob
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Bob,

We may still be way below average, but the soil moisture is getting deeper and we are out of a drought now!

Gary

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1 in of rain up here in Platte City.

What is the latest on the storm #3 you talked about earlier the one that is to affect us between Christmas and New Years?
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Charles,

The latest data has a big storm next week, but I am not convinced yet.

Gary

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Good evening Gary, just wanted to let you kown at our house in Berryton, KS .92 inches up through now 6 p.m. Looks like the rain is almost out of here though according to the radar. Michael/Topeka
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Michael,

It appears to be east of you now!

Gary

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We had just over an inch here in trenton.. well.. 1.13" to be exact.
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Glen,

Not bad! This is a really good soaking rain producer, and a big snow producer out west. A huge storm!

Gary

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Gary--Rainfall from east side of Olathe: 1.14 inches. Back yard held quite a bit of water. I can only imagine how much snow we would have had with this moisture. Can't get these patterns straight!!!

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Great Job Gary on the precip forecast amounts!!! When you said up to an inch a day or so ago, I'll admit I was dubious. I live in the Red Bridge area in S KCMO and my Stratus rain gauge showed .99" as of 7:00 PM this evening. I was going to round up, but figured you would appreciate accuracy :)

Gary Goodnow
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Gary,

You will get your additional .01" in an hour or two. Wow! What a nice soaking.

Gary

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Gary,
Finally, the 18Z GFS model is giving winter weather enthusiasts something interesting after day 7. Arctic air looks to be building in Canada after next week with the weakening of the Pacific storm parade, and it could buckle the polar jet stream. A great fantasy snowstorm is at 240 hours. How will the end of December and early January pattern fit within the GRC? The pattern is starting to look more exciting for areas east of the Rockies!
Devin
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Devin,

There should be another opportunity for a storm in that time frame, but it was much flatter the last time through the cycle. So, let's see hot it pans out.

Gary

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Hi Gary,
.95" here. I was hoping for over an inch, but we'll take what we can get! I know it's fantasy right now, but I really like the 18Z GFS for the 29th or so:)

David
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David,

It is raining again, You will end up with over an inch.

Gary

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1.3" at 3:00 in Lenexa plus about 0.1" since

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Hey Gary, just walked in the door and checked the gauge here in Greenwood, and we only have .45" of an inch. Not bad!

Tim in GW
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Tim,

That seems like a low number. I can't remember exactly, but there were a few heavy bands that did just miss Greenwood.

Gary

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VERY GOOD RAINS TODAY in St. Joe!
Don't remember hearing any thunder but man it really came down at times! BTW very impressive water vapor loop on the ten o'clock news cast! Now the storm should weaken since it has been occluded right?
And one last thing mabye for the future, after seeing the live snow shot from Denver, I thought wouldn't it be neat if all the NBC affiliates had live weather web cams that could then be streamed on all(or most) of the other affiliates like weatherplus is streamed and then you could just click on which city's weather you would like to watch? OR do a silimar thing but with just the cities and town surrounding K.C. so we could view storms as they roll by live whenever we wanted to? I know you wouldn't have much control over this, it is mainly just an idea that I thought was cool!
Thanks for your time!
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

Great idea! I did enjoy showing the live camera from Denver. This could be a trend as technology continues to improve.

Gary

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Gary,
I forgot about this mornings amounts, .25", so I actually have 1.2"!!

David

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1.25 total rain in Platte City.