********
bring it on....
---------------
Ryan,

Don't be sad if we get almost nothing out of this. We are in a very strange weather pattern.

Gary

*******************
Ok..in looking at the 12Z, I think we will get the moisture. I prefer the wet GFS as they tend to overdry when it gets closer. Based on the my interpretation of the GRC and what the model shows, I need this storm to dig and find some a hair of blocking. This would but us back in the 540 area and give us the big snow. I worry about it coming too far north, but trusting my gut and the GRC..I think it will hedge south a bit and dig more than its showing. I will keep my emotions in check..but...I like what I am seeing. Actually am beginning to find much more value in the 4 panel charts these days...

DIG DIG DIG...or else, Omaha is going to get it and not us so much.
------------------------
Scott,

I am worried.

Gary

**************
Thanks for the explanation of the GRC! :)

By the way, Gary, you've said several times on the blog that the pattern is very strange. Can you elaborate what you mean by that? (or point me to a previous post)

Also, just a gee-whiz kind of question unrelated to forecasting. How is blogging affecting the TV coverage of the weather? In my case, I can almost never catch you live on the news. But I read the blog all the time. (I suspect I'm not alone in this). Is that going to change the way weather is covered by your station (and others)?

Thanks
---------------------------
Rick,

Great "gee-whiz" question. The objective is to have both and by having a great weather blog that viewers can count on it should translate to you also watching the weathercast and newscast. I think it is enhancing our image in the community. It is something we will have to pay close attention to, just like the weather.

"Strange".......well, I just wish these storm systems would drop into the west, form into a storm, a cold front and warm front then tie into a surface low and then the storm would lift out into the plains. If the storm systems would be this simple then we have a "more normal" situation. But, instead it is "strange". This entire weather pattern has been "strange" in this way.

Gary

*********************
I am drawing an imaginary cold front to this-since I have yet to see one snowflake yet! - Haha. I will make sure to time it just so the cold air is thick enough and there will be no ice- haha.
That sure does look enticing though- huh!
--------

***************
Gary,
How long typically does it take you and your team to zero in on the reality of this storm? I know your tendencies are to track this storm in and out of the area but at what point does your confidence level move from 50 to say 75 or 80?

Thanks and looking very forward to January 4th,
Todd
-------------------
Todd,

Right now my confidence level on this storm system is 25 on a 1-100 scale. The storm in question has not even formed yet. In fact we are still two more days away from the beginning of its formation. So, once it forms is when our confidence level will grow. It should stay around 25 until sometime tomorrow and then we can see what may happen a bit clearer.

Gary

************
Since we are just having fun.... That would be great if that was all snow!! (3-5')
-----------------
Dan,

No and yes! No because it isn't even close to being cold enough for snow for most of the duration of the storm, but yes, if it were then wow!

Gary

******************
Gary, I listened to two other "long range" reports from two other meteorologists and one says look out for the week of Christmas (meaning colder air and possibly snow)and the other says that the cold air (Artic) won't be here until around January 10th. Just wondering and is this precipitation for next week? Thanks, Michael/Topeka
-------------------------
Michael,

There are way too many projections that come out every day beyond 10 days. If you notice in our blog, I will occasionally go there, but only when confidence is higher than at least 50%. Yesterday there was data showing very cold, and today it is looking very warm. I don't have an oppinion at this moment, although I lean towards warmer, only a little bit. I just want our weather to get exciting.

Gary

************
Gary..you need some new adjectives. Wierd, bizarre, strange, odd...I am immune now.

May I suggest kooky, freaky, peculiar, or even far out.

Otherwise, you can just call it what it is..

Mother Nature.... ;-)
----------------------
Scott,

I will try to come up with some new adjectives like tame, boring, tranquil, quiet.

Gary

**************
Do you find that the 5400m line is a good way to determine if precip will be rain or snow? If this is the case, the GFS map (same time as the one you posted) shows that line almost circling Kansas city. I know that you're not forcasting anything that far out yet, but wouldn't that be more snow than rain?
---------------
Miranda,

Yes I do, but not when it is 5 days away. Let's see what it looks like on Friday. If the storm is still there then we can start analyzing.

Gary

*************
You really shouldn't tease us this way Gary. But it is fun to dream.
-------------------
Snowlover,

Sometimes all we have is "false" hope.

Gary

************
Dear gary if the weather has a pattern then why is this storm suprising you 2 days ago there was no storm when should we be getting a storm by your theroy thanks
-------------------------
John,

There are always suprises. The overall pattern may very well be cycling, and I believe it is, but this doesn't mean the exact same thing happens each time. Very different specific results happen from the same pattern.

Gary

**************************
Hey Gary could u give me the site where you got that map from?
--------------
Daniel,

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

***************
Gary,

Hey, I was just wondering what you were thinking about that storm as of now?

Andy
-----------------------
Andy,

I am not confident at all!

Gary

************
I ABSOLUTELY BELIVE THE GFS!(NOT):)
Gary I think that you need to tell the GFS to get a drink and lay down for alittle while, but I guess weirder things have happened before, but usually when its weird its not good for us. Hey, it's almost Christmas so maybe we will get lucky!!
Nick(Looking Cynically at the GFS)in St. Joe!
------------------
Nick,

Even if this storm was one day away we would be worried about it. So, let's see how we feel in a day or so.

Gary

************
yep, all I can do is still back and laugh at this. Way way way to early to tell on next week. I just don't have a good feeling on this system. I guess we will wait and see. Still think a little system the weekend before xmas and another after. Wierd pattern I must say.

Doug Heady
KOAMTV
-----------------
Doug,

Every day it looks different. And, now we must hope for tomorrow. But, the pattern is what the pattern is. It is not a good one.

Gary

********
So, this is 5-7 days out and you have little confidence? How many runs in a row of similar predictions would increase your confidence? I'm just kind of wondering how the actual given prediction works. Was this the first run that came out with 3-5 inches of precip?
--------------------
Ronny,

Yes it was the first and only run to do it. I showed it today in the blog for two reasons. One, there is a chance it could come close to being right, and two it is fun to look at. But, I need many more runs to gain confidence.

Gary

*************
At a quick glance it appears that there is a Low in California and one in western Canada. Is the Low in Canada expected to drop south into the western U.S. and is that the one that will effect us? Also, is there any chance that the trough that will dig into the SW U.S. be strong enough to drag in some colder air? Finally, is there any indication that some of the cold air in NW Canada could make a move soon enough to get involved with this storm?
------------------

David,

It is way too complex right now. The storm isn't even there yet.

Gary

**************
Gary,
Why are you worried?
What has changed your mind? Which model run?
Thanks
--------------------
Jenny,

The trend is for this storm to look a bit weaker with each run. It is still just too far away. I am only a little bit worried.

Gary

*****************
Gary this is a relpy from your answer to me yesterday. I agree, you shouldn't say something like "We will have 20 inches in one hour" based on 1 or 2 computer models. By the way that stament in qoutes was fake. I would wait DAYS later then say what you think. Now on to today. If this does happen (wicth I'm not saying it will) is it, like you said, really possible for some of that to be snow? I'm not doubting you-- I do believe you-- but the question is will be like two weeks ago or not? IF IT DOES HAPPEN.
Alden
---------------
Alden,

It isn't even worth talking about yet. This is a another storm that isn't even there yet. At this point we must wait another couple of days to see how this is looking.

Gary

****************
Where in missouri would the main snows be? is st louis better favored than us in kc?
----------------
Michael,

There is no Arctic air available for this storm, so any snow is suspect at this moment.

Gary

*****************
Gary:

I really don't know how you do it!!! You have people like me demanding to know information on the blog, e-mailing etc. wanting a 7 day forecast and the biggest tool you have in the weather arsenal is just acting skitzo. I feel for you!!!! The 12Z GFS just looks absolutely nuts-it wants to take the 500 vort on a due North track from around Hutch. up to Lincoln and then leave it there for about 36 hours spinning lt. precip over us for almost 2 days-how many lows track due north from Hutch?? The Euro wants to keep a massive amount of energy in the Baha of California and raise hts all the way downstream to the East Coast-I in no way have any kind of handle on how upper air dynamics work, (just a Latin teacher who can't do math-thus I am a Latin teacher!!!) but with a positive NAO, I just can't see these scenarios working out. God Bless you for trying to explain this to people every night-and you do a such a great job!!! To me, I think hey, there looks to be some changes next week beginning around Sunday-no specifics yet-for now, enjoy the weather we have for the next few days-because in reality, this is about as nice as weather gets around here any time of the year!! By the way, can you tell I am having trouble writing my finals!!! Thanks again for listening to my rantings!!!!
--------------------
Bill,

This is exactly the approach I am taking on the air tonight. I am stressing the beautiful weather. And, then leaving next weeks storm to the 7 day forecast for just a few seconds. I may change the approach tomorrow if it is more exciting.

Get back to writing those finals!

Gary

****************
At least something is going to happen next week. Even if it's only rain, we need it. We got 10" of snow in Lee's Summit two weeks ago and a 20 minute drive past Arrowhead, there was almost nothing. The next potential storm is 10 to 11 days away. For us snow lovers, let's hope!
-----------------------
Gary,

It better at least be "something". I am not even convinced of that yet.

Gary

*********************
Have faith Gary...throw the models out. Your cycle is a bit more exact this year in outcome than you think.

If you won't stand on the GRC, I will. I think we can look back and see a very clear picture of what is coming. I think even Dough alluded to it yesterday. This is exactly the same storm that will close off in the SE..but maybe this time a bit further north. The only question is the arctic air..the rest will be here on time as the GRC predicts. It will intensify, and dig. Trust.
----------------------
Scott,

Unfortunately this part of the cycle is a more progressive but negatively tilted wave. The flow is more amplified this time around. But, when the system comes into the plains it should fall into, or rather move into the longwave position it is suppose to be in. There is a strong possibility that we do NOT have the cycle correctly picked out yet. A very STRONG possibility. The last time through the cycle (perhaps the first cycle, but incomplete first cycle) we did not combine the two streams. The forecast over the next 5 days tries to combine the two streams of flow and it just doesn't want to do it. So, this is why there is a lot of problems with this next storm.

Gary

**************
Thanks for your elaboration on "strange" weather. Now that you mention it, I don't think I have seen anything like all the typical and normal patterns like I remembering studing. Given that, you certainly do a great job with your forecasts. Keep up the great work.
--------------------
Miranda,

Maybe the weather is always strange, which would then make it unstrange or normal?

Gary

**************
I checked out the competitions website. I like your station better, but this blog is like one big headache. not very organized. is there going to be a change in the blog style. it seems so much more organized on the other site. but i like this station alot more. think that the webteam will update this site anytime soon?
-------------------
Michael,

I think they just updated their blog site. But, I don't agree with you. I like our format better. What do you see?

Gary

***************
Good grief. After looking at the emc site, the previous blogs and looking at the GFS, I am now too having a bit of trouble making sense of this storm. The GRC may not quite be set yet..but this storm is either coming in early or late. If late, then this will be a dud. If early, then there is still a shot for some action. Oddly, this is the first occurance that did not have a like occurance earlier in the cycle.

One thing that is interesting, is if you look at all the maps in sequence from the emc site, the polar 500 vort view shows an interesting pattern regarding what looks like almost a star of huge energy masses cycling around the globe. Seems like each one of these corresponds to about a 10 day duration between each huge trough. Some parts of the cycle it is very clear to almost a perfect star pattern, but twice a cycle, it all almost becomes completely unorganized, only to come back together in 10 days back into a nice pattern. Odd.

It should be no suprise that the map for Nov 10th is chaotic [corresponding to Dec. 20th], but the Nov 15th map that would correspond to when I thought the next big storm would be [Dec. 25th], it is a nice star pattern again of energy with a huge trough over the central US [arctic blast].

As usual..the GFS minimizes it and doesn't give it enough amplitude yet.

Dumb GFS. LOL.
-------------------
Scott,

I did an analysis in the past half hour. And, the GRC is set. We are cycling and this storm is very similar to the set up of 40 days ago or so. So, this would fit. The streams weren't combining like they are trying to do this time. But, the reason the storm is digging less and less on the models as it gets closer actually makes sense. This could still be somewhat interesting here early next week, but it could end up faster moving than the models have said.

We will see. It certainly isn't as fun.

Gary

*********
If it comes in early, then it makes sense..and will be a dud. But shortly there after, we would have something more significant..much more.
--------------
Scott,

We still have to watch this trough very closely. When Jeff Penner and I were going through the October and November maps two days ago we knew the big storm didn't fit. But, we hoped.

Gary

*********
Gary could u explain what GRC means I think i have some idea but im not sure. and the last blog message i read on here is leaving me in suspense. i hope you update tomorrow morning.
---------------
Daniel,

Try to scan through some of the comments from the past few days as I have answered this question, or go back in the archives to October and look through the entries as I go into extensive detail there.

We are cycling through a pattern that set up in October and early November. And, GRC stands for Gary's Recurring Cycle.

Gary

*************
Gary,

I have to say that I like what i am seeing from he new data. It is looking a little better atleast. What do you think?

Andy
--------------------
Andy,

No. There is some hope but it is going to be a struggle to even get a rain drop.

Gary

**************
Gary I am confused and hope you can help. You speak of a pattern and then say you are not sure what is coming up as things are different all the time.

To me a pattern is a repeatable event or process. Please explain what part of the weather is repeating to show a pattern.

On another note, I will be moving to Delaware next month. What do you foresee in the way of winter for them? Any noreasters this year? I know they have been relatively wet this year but warm like the rest of us. Actually we have been colder here than there!

thanks!!

Leonard
---------------
Leonard,

Even though I am convinced that we are repeating the pattern that set up earlier in October, this doesn't mean the same things always happen in the weather we experience here on the ground. When the stormy part of the pattern returns next month the same exact snowstorm that hit from the south side of Kansas City to Oklahoma may repeat, but not in the EXACT same spot.

There have been very limited chances for Noreaster's this year. There have been a few wet storms, so part of the cycle will bring this to the northeast again, but will there be enough cold air for a true Noreaster?

Gary