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Dry this week, but what about next week?
Good evening everyone,
We have a weak Arctic front that will move through Wednesday night and we will be very cold for about 24 hours, then a big warm up is likely. One week from now the latest GFS shows a system that has dropped to near Mexico will possibly lift northward and bring the region some rain. Below, you can see the 500 mb chart (18,000 feet up) which is forecasting an upper low beginning to kick out into the plains. It could be a rather wet system, but will it even be there. Let's see how it looks later this week. And, it doesn't look like it will be cold enough to snow, but let's watch the end of next week very closely
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid one week from today)
Have a great evening!
Posted by at December 5, 2006 5:14 PM
Per the GRC/SMCv.2, this view is valid. There will be something here. In fact, I bet it strengthens beyond what is shown. I do think this will come through and strengthen a bit south and east as if you look back [southern missouri/Ark if I remember right]..you will see that is what the other one did about a month ago.
Gary, this would be your Dec. 10th [ish] snow storm. Lets wait to see the temps as the models solidify and whether it drifts a bit north with the strengthening jet.
Thanks. It is a very interesting next couple of weeks. There is a split forming and I don't want to talk about it much until I see if it becomes a blocking pattern or just progressive waves.
Posted by: Scott at December 5, 2006 5:57 PM
When do you think the pattern will cycle back to the week we had last week? The models are not giving us winter weather enthusiasts much hope right now. I have looked at all four GFS runs today and I see a sum total of one or two ridges in the Eastern Pacific the entire 16 day period. Hopefully, things will change soon. The pattern in the Pacific is showing stronger El Nino characteristics...
Please remember the week before last week's wildness the models had WARM, WARM, WARM. The models were WRONG, WRONG, WRONG! So, don't panic yet.
Posted by: Devin at December 5, 2006 6:44 PM
Gary just wondering... if the weather pattern has storms diving down south and coming back north and intensifying in our region how does this bode for the spring time? It seems that if you take the last wild storm system and put that in a spring setting we have an exceptionally dangerous storm. If this repeats time and time again we may have a nice winter but a terrifying spring. :-(
As soon as we have figured out the cycle, which has not been done yet, we will have a very good idea of the spring potential. I think about it from time to time. Let's give it another month or at least until we figure out the cycle.
Posted by: Shawn at December 5, 2006 6:50 PM
Gary and team,
I just had a few quick questions about the bloggers meeting. I sent my email to your email addy, so lets say I get an invitation. Am I suppose to print it out and bring it? Will I be able to bring someone with me, or am I gonna fly solo on this? How long do you think the meeting will last? I looked thru the other posts and did not see the answers to these questions, but if you have answered them, I am sorry about the repeats.
I will explain in the invitation. After I send out the invites we can consider bringing friends. Let's just see what the response is like and then we will answer questions later.
Posted by: Keri Worley at December 5, 2006 7:16 PM
Not much going on today,but it was windy this afternoon so at least it was something to watch as for the long range trends, well I'm not panicing yet, I do remember that last year at times it atually looked like it was going to be decent year(Especially early last December) and the very long range trend went back to the original forcast of blah...
You did say you were concerned though so I have dusted off the "panic button":)
Nick in St. Joe!
The next three weeks will have a few storm systems track into the central United States. Faster moving than yesterday's models showed. There is potential next week for some interesting weather. It is already taking on another look. But, I think it is similar to what happened towards the end of October. Nothing huge, but some chances.
Posted by: Nick Rau at December 5, 2006 10:10 PM
Sorry to say I don't like the Weekend forecast. Hopefully another chance of snow soon. I don't like seeing the snow melt. Of course I'll do with any winter precip. Sleet, Ice storm, Snow Storm!!
Or rain! You must include rain in your possibilities, because if we get rain, then at this time of the year it almost has to be close to doing something else.
Posted by: Andrew at December 5, 2006 10:33 PM
I saw you were looking for the name of the city with the 41 degree reading that has now fallen to 26 in Iowa. It is Sioux City Iowa. I saw you trying to think of the name of the city on the 5 pm weathercast. Just wanted to help.
I have another question for you. My wife has a picture to submit for a pet pic and we cant figure out how to do it....can you help us?
Thanks so Much!
Pastor George & Norma Morey
George and Norma,
Thank you so much. Even at 6 PM I forgot again. I will remember at 10 PM.
Just send your picture to me at firstname.lastname@example.org
Posted by: George Morey at December 6, 2006 5:27 PM