****************
GFS shows the storm meander across Missouri and arkansas first right over us then to our south then to our east and back over us then back east and shows a few areas could pick up 3-4 in of snow.
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Charles,

Only if it is cold enough. 38 degrees won't do it. We just need some cold air to get in here on the back side.

Gary

**************
YES, bring on that spinning "comma head" of wetness!! RAIN, RAIN, RAIN!
Nick(with a makeral sky) in St. Joe!
---------------------
Nick,

It was a pretty sunset. I am anxiously awaiting the next set of data coming in tonight. By tomorrow this storm may have another look to it. I just hope it doesn't track north of us. Storm systems like this that track south of you are much more fun.

Gary

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So with this new data and the storm track the way it is sounds like a better chance of a little snow? Keep tracking it Gary and I will watch it also on those maps. Does it still look promising around the 10th of January? Thanks, Michael/Topeka
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Michael,

The models have the potential of a storm around the 10th, and it is colder. But, this split flow will be tough to break down.

Gary

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Bring on the snow!!! My boys and I are doing a snow dance!! We want Colorado's snow, but we don't want to move there.
--------------------
Jennifer,

Don't get excited yet. The chance is still slim.

Gary

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The GFS at hours 300+ hours shows a huge high covering the western 1/3 of the country and we have winds straight out of the North with a hugh Low to our north is this what you mean by blocking the pacific flow?
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Charles,

Yes, but will it be able to do it? It is right on schedule.

Gary

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I know it has to be below freezing in the atmosphere for it to snow, but how warm can the surface air temperature be and still give us snow? Also, if the ground temperature is above freezing, can falling snow cool it down enough to where snow begins to stick?
----------------------
Marlina,

Your last question first. The October Surprise in 1996 dumped 6 to 8 inches so fast that it accumulated on the warm ground, but then melted fairly fast. So, it can happen even with the warmer temperatures.

I have seen it snow at around 42 degrees before, but this was with a fairly dry lower layer near the ground. When the atmosphere is moist like it will be with this storm we will need it to be closer to freezing.

Gary

***********************
Alright Gary, I looked at all of the 500mb charts. Now looking at the long waves and the trend over the next few days. Today, looks a lot like Nov. 27th, which you do have to look b/c of the split flow. However, also looks like the 8th of Oct. So b/c we have seen this now three times, I think we are entering the third cycle. Plus the hopefully Jan. 10th storm, we saw on Nov. 30th, and also around the the 21st of Oct. So I think we are entering the third cycle of this pattern. That is the way I see it. I guess we will be able to tell better as the cycle identifies itself over time.

Doug
-------------------
Doug,

I went back and looked. I need to analyze a bit more. There are similarities on many occasions to what is going on now. Thus, the long term longwave trough and ridge positions. But, is it truly the November 27th to 30th set up now? I don't think so. I will keep my mind open to any possibility though.

Gary

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Hey Gary can u give me the website where u get temperatures? When looking at the GFS when we are in the blue lines doesnt that mean that temps are below freezing.
------------------------
Daniel,

It depends on which map you are looking at. And, those temperatures are not very reliable.

Gary

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Gary, my buddy who lives across the street is in the landscape business, he cuts grass during the summer months and pushes snow during the winter. He's bored something awful right now, and is even thinking of taking his truck and plow out to Colorado to make some dough. He and I both follow your forecasts closely, and things arent shaping up to be a productive season for him. Any chance he could intern with you for the winter and build his meterological skills? If nothing else, you might be able to trade forecasts for grass cutting during the summer! Go Bears!
-------------------
David,

Tell your buddy to be patient. We may have a few chances this season. Maybe even during the next two weeks.

Gary

****************
Gary, at least for the month of December, has any part of the country (lower 48 states)experienced an extended period of "below normal" temps? Or has the entire country been "normal" to "above normal"?

Thanks!
Jay
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Jay,

The first few days of December had wide spread below average temperatures, but not since that first week.

Gary

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No No Gary, I am saying that on Jan 10th, if we get a storm then, which I think something similair to Nov. 30th will be out there. That is the same as Oct. 21st as well. I think right now we are around the 8th of October, and the 27th of Nov. That is what I meant. I didn't mean that this system is the Nov. 30th system.
Doug
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Doug,

I just went and analyzed the maps again. The split is affecting the pattern, but you know what happens next. You can scramble it all up and then.......boom, everything falls right back into place. We will see. I don't agree that this is the November 27th situation.

Gary

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Gary...can you define shortwaves vs longwaves? That might help me better understand the LRC longwaves out at 145 [seems pretty far out there...]
---------------------
Scott,

145 west is not that far off the coast. But, it is in a position that is almost always good for us. It allows for the flow aloft to go over that ridge and then drop into a trough in the western or central U.S. This ridge, that I picked out in October when the pattern set up, is the main reason Los Angeles is having a very dry season despite the El Nino that is rather obviously affecting the pattern.

A longwave is basically a large scale feature where the shortwaves will move in and out of. If you have a broad trough in the west this would be a longwave trough. The smaller features, each individual storm system, ride through this trough. Sometimes many disturbances drop in and carve out the trough and then finally form into an upper low. Each one of this little twists, often a band of clouds with a little circulation in them, is a shortwave.

I made up the term "long term longwave" troughs and ridges. And, this is part of my theory. These long term longwaves are never discussed by other meteorologists and I still don't know why. One of these features is the rather dominant 142 to 145 west low latitude long term longwave ridge. It is this feature that had me convinced that we would have large upper level storm systems near the 4 corners states. The first time through the cycle I couldn't believe that troughs would drop in there, but there weren't these strong upper lows. So, I believed that they would happen, but more likely in February and March. Well, they started earlier.

Another feature was a strong Great Lakes trough. This is a feature that has had a hard time this time through the cycle. We were thinking these features would combine and this is why I forecasted so much snow. Anyway, it is still early so we will see. And, this is why I am excited that the pattern is cycling and the main longwave features are producing. The amount of snow is still possible, but if it doesn't happen I can't do anything about it. It isn't the most important part of my winter forecast, even though I know the viewers will say where is the 25 inches of snow? Well, there likely will be that much anyway in our viewing area and it still could happen in KC. We will just have to wait and see.

Gary

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Ok, lol I left you a phone message. I wrote the last one wrong. I meant to write that today (Dec.27th) is like (Nov.17th) and also (Oct.8th) That is what I meant, so if we are like Nov. 17th today, then in 11 days we should be at Nov 27th, LETS HOPE. Sorry for the confusion
Doug
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Doug,

Always call back. I sometimes go days without listening to my voice messages. I am spending all my time on the blog, but having fun doing it.

Gary

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Where is all the cold air?
--------------------
Brian,

Probably at the South Pole, and it is summer down there...just kidding. I don't know. This is very sad. But, there is one part of our pattern that produced the cold at the beginning of the month and this could return within 15 days.

Gary

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Gary:

Good Morning sir!!! Thanks for the response yesterday-as a someone said yesterday you do do an awesome job keeping up with the blog!!!

What an interesting storm this is!!!! I'm still not convinced that the gudinence has this thing pinned down yet-I realize all the 0z data had this low tracking right over the top of us and the Euro has been fairly consistent with the same overall track but now the 6z GFS comes out and takes it back south???? (They have also seemed to weaken that vortex commming out of Canada) It looks to me (and this is conjecture at its best...) like on satelite the center of the low is over SW Arizona which is a bit further south west than the models progged it-could the 06Z gfs be picking up on that?? How many straws can one person grasp???

That being said, as I was following this yesterday and seeing the nice trend south (untill the 0z just kicked me...) something that was in the back of mind finally came front and center and smacked me in the fore head: even the further south tracks were having issues bringing in enough cold air to turn this into even a minor snow event. There is enough cold air to our north to give us snow (it is not arctic to be sure but even if central Canada is 10 degrees above normal, that is still pretty cold!!) but this storm is just not really tapping it-so then I see a High Pressure system being progged to set up over the Dakota's-it is weak but I'm like hey hey maybe that will help filter in colder air-then I realized-step away from the computer for a spell... We are just to dependent on Dynamic cooling with this system to give us a good snow-historically, that is really not the situation you want-western Kansas has the benefit of being above 4,000 feet-that helps in a pattern of overall above normal temps.

So, I have resolved myself to the fact that this is a rain event and if lucky, we will see some flakes as this pulls out to the North East. Lawrence is still almost 7 inches below for the year so I will gladly take the rain and follow events in Western Kansas-this def. could be a dangerous situation for some out there, but they are getting some deperately needed moisture out there!!

However, being the obsessed person with winter weather that I am, I will check each model run today holding that last straw/and towel hoping for some typical Kansas City wrench that changes the whole set up!!!

A little personal deal here: I have been obessed with winter since I was young-as I have said, I can garuntee the summer will be hot and we will have thunderstorms (and I do love to watch them rumble in!!!) but you can not garuntee it will snow and be cold here-you never have been able to-you alluded to it a couple of days ago: there is a reason we only average 22 inches of snow a year. I can not count how many storms as a kid I saw fizzle into rain and drizzle-some did hit, but more often than not, they went too far south, North or warm air got wrapped into the upper levels-it is a rare event to get the good snow here-that is why it so much fun to track one when there is the possibility!!! To be honest, the past 6 years have not been horrible-2000-2001 was a great winter as was 2003-2004-we were pretty close to average both of those winters and had bitter cold to boot-and last year we at least got that big dump in December with temps. in the single digits (I will always remember you on 980 that morning when the snow first started-I commuted to KC then!!)
We are just not the snow capital of the world-with an average temp. of 38 even in Jan., well, you are always playing with fire!!!

Again, I have babbled on incessently-thanks for reading (if you have time or even do!!!)and have great day-I keep hope alive in my inner child, but my adult side is thankful for the rain-satelite looks great with the clouds streaming in from Oklahoma!! Thanks again.
-------------------------
Bill,

Good morning to you too! You again make a few good points. A lot of people don't realize that Goodland is much higher in elevation than we are in eastern Kansas. So, it is easier for the atmosphere to produce snow the further west you go.

And, every model run is important. The storm could be a bit deeper allowing for some colder air to work its way to the surface. Or, a wave could round the base of the closed low and cause weak cyclogenesis (surface storm formation) and this could create additional lift. Many other things can happen too like the track of the upper low could end up further south or north. So, this is why we keep looking at each model run. The last thing we want to see is a northward trend. So, let's hope for the best on today's runs.

Have a great day!

Gary

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Gary
The storm seems to be slowing down-The rain was going to be on Thursday, then Friday, now Saturday. I know the storm had not developed when the timeline for the rain was given originally. I am curious though if the storm has slowed down and if it has, does this mean we might get more rain than originally thought. I hope for a more Southern route, but will be glad with just rain.
---------------
Ann,

I never thought the rain would be here Thursday. Whenever an upper low is closing off and becoming strong, they almost always slow down and are further west. The forecast should have been for rain late Friday or Friday night at the earliest the entire time. Our forecast made this adjustment days ago. So, no surprise here. The amount of rain will more depend on the track of the storm. The further south track would provide us with a few bands of rain, and not just one shot. So, let's see where this thing tracks.

Gary

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Gary:

Thanks again for the response-this blog is just awesome-I really enjoy reading it and hearing from you-I am going to try to shorten my posts, but I just get carried away!!!

One thing I want to clarify as I think it can be misconstrued-I didn't mean you personally could not guarantee a snow storm and cold, I just meant in general there is no guarantee we will have an arctic out break and a snow storm-but in summer, one can pretty much bet the house it will be hot and we will have thunderstorms!!! I just wanted to make sure my comment did not get mis construed!! I have been thinking about this somewhat: we have 3 warm air sources: the desert sw, the gulf of Mexico, and chinook winds-all not that far from here-the true cold air source is really the NWT of Canada and that is quite a distance-again, like you said, there is a reason we only average 22 inches a year!!!!

I will continue to watch every model run and hold onto that straw and towel and be thankful for the rain!!! Thanks again-your responses-they are very much appreciated and enjoyed!!!!
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Bill,

Another thing the bloggers don't realize, is that I actually fix spelling errors. You should have seen how you spelled guarantee. I make mistakes too, so don't worry. But, as I am posting I often make some corrections to the spelling errors. Sometimes I just let them slide as well.

Anyway. I don't agree with you. It is just as hard for Kansas City to hit 100 degrees as it is for us to have snow. KCI went 7 years in a row below 100 in the 1990s. Yes, snow is rare and when we do have the chance it becomes rather exciting and fun, but often frustrating to track. In the summer, yes it will get hot, but if you isolate the 100 degree events you will see that they are perhaps even more rare than a snow event.

Gary

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The storm seems as if it will be spinning over Colorado. Have the models shown any more chance of the storm moving further south of KC than what it showed yesterday-missed the 10 PM newscast. Sorry I won't let it happen again LOL
---------------------------
Ann,

Let's see how it trends today. The storm appears to be further south this morning.

Gary

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Morning Gary, say here in Topeka a few of the meteorologists (not all of them) and the NWS at Billard Airport are saying that accumulating snows are possible Sunday through Sunday night. One stated it might be 1-3 inches. Are they wishing or is there the back side of the storm that might pull in some colder air. Another source is seeing Artic Air and possibly a snow or ice storm around the 8th through the 12th of Jan. Anyway thank goodness for the rain coming. We are around 3.5 inches down for the year just west of you. Thanks for your hard work, Michael/Topeka
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Michael,

There certainly is a chance Sunday night into Monday. The first thing we need is the storm to track south of us. If this doesn't happen then there is no chance. The 06z run had the snow you are talking about, but it is still marginal on temperatures.

The Arctic cold showing up around the 10th of January is right on schedule. But, will the Pacific flow dominate or will it block up. I think it will block up like it did in late November.

Gary

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Gary:

My spelling is horrible-pretty sad considering I teach History and Latin and therefore grade essays every week!!! Thanks for the help-I need all of it I can get!!

I never thought about this in terms of 100 degree days and that is an excellent point for sure-accept for this past summer, 100 degree days have been few and far between here-especially in 2004. I think my love of snow and cold (I would much rather it be 25 and windy than a 101 and humid-or even 92 and humid-yuk!!) gets the best of me sometimes as well as some serious frustrating misses over the years. That being said I love the change of seasons and if it was cold here all the time I would not like that either-that is the one great thing about here: it can be 105 in August and then 4 months later be -10-that is just awesome to think about!!!!

Thanks again for the spelling help(lol)-I see the 12Z NAM is processing-of course the NAM has had this thing North the whole time-should be a fascinating day for sure!!! Have a great one
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Bill,

The NAM may catch on to the further south solution in the next few minutes. It is now that exciting time of the morning. But, I go to work out at 9 AM. It gives me a little time away from clicking and reloading.

Gary

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Gary,
The 12Z GFS doesn't look to good for snow. I hope it's a bad run. It seems further north than the last few. It also looks like it opens up for a little bit, am I reading it right? The rain still looks good and I'll take that, but snow would be nice.

David
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David,

Let's enjoy the rain when it gets here and hope for a further south track.

Gary

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Just not enough cold air for this shot. Maybe some rain, but the back end of the low will go NW of us. Still tracking the 10th storm. This one should be the one to get excited about as we should have some cold air to work with.
--------------------
Scott,

The 10th storm is mixed in the new data somewhere. I don't like the latest GFS run for many reasons. But, I am suppose to go skiing in Colorado leaving on the 12th for five days. So, hopefully there isn't the big one then.

Gary