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Friday night update....rain...Arctic air....things to dicuss
Good evening everyone,
The 18z data is now out. The upper low is very likely going to track within a few miles of Kansas City. Amazing! The last storm actually came right through us as well, and when it did we had .05" with the system as it went through without any moisture to work with. The same thing is likely this time around. As the upper low passes we will likely see a few showers. Also, just like the last storm the heavy rain will occur well ahead of the main upper low.
 Click to enlarge
The above map is the 500 mb upper level chart valid Sunday evening, New Year's Eve. The upper low is passing over the state line just south of KC. As it approaches tonight and Saturday will become quite wet. Thunderstorms are almost likely. And, heavy rain should be widespread later tonight through Saturday. I am thinking the rain will come in three waves, with little breaks in between. By midnight Saturday night we will likely get dry slotted and the rain will end. Below, you can see the rain forecast by the latest GFS, which has been having some skimpy amounts with this storm. I buy the latest idea of giving many of us around 1.5" of rain.
Click to enlarge
A snowstorm is materializing across eastern Colorado and western Kansas. We just won't have enough cold air with this storm near the surface to provide any chance of wintery precipitation. This is not the case in the long range. As anticipated, the colder part of this weather pattern we are cycling through is trying its hardest to show up right on schedule close to the 10th of January. The 18z data even has a rather impressive development of an Arctic front. More on this in the coming days. I am hoping it materializes because I think we all could use a shot of real winter. If you have shots of anything else this weekend please remember to have a designated driver.
Gary
Posted by at December 29, 2006 4:36 PM
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Gary,
It is good that we are getting some widespread rainfall from this storm. However, when is the pattern going to change and allow us to have some opportunities for arctic air and snowfall?The temperature anomalies in most of the plains and southern Canada continue to run way above normal, with little snowpack on the ground. The only positive sign that I see is the AO trending back toward neutral and the ridge possibly developing in the Eastern Pacific by the end of next week.
Devin
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Devin,
If the cold pattern, similar to the one we had in November and early December comes back, then we can rethink the potential influences from the AO and others. I just don't believe that they are as much of a factor. Something bigger is going on. The latest GFS was very cold, but only at the end.
Gary
Posted by: Devin at December 29, 2006 4:42 PM
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Raining in Platte City
5:20
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Charles,
Thank you. We can say the storm has begun, but the main show is hours away.
Gary
Posted by: Charles at December 29, 2006 5:25 PM
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Gary,
Do you think this years precipation for snow will come close to your prediction.
Thanks.
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Jeff,
Of course I hope so. We are still waiting! It would only take 9 inches of snow the rest of the season for areas just south of us. But, it would take 25 inches on the north side.
Gary
Posted by: Jeff at December 29, 2006 5:45 PM
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I'm glad to hear the rain will be over for the Chiefs game. What is the average amount of snowfall Denver receives in a winter? Have these snowstorms broken any records?
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Marlina,
I will have to look up Denver's average later. But, I do know that Boulder, Co is up to 65 inches of snow already this season. Amazing. Last year they only had 44 inches the entire winter season.
Gary
Posted by: Marlina at December 29, 2006 5:50 PM
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Gary:
Good Evening!! We had our first sprinkles hit SW Lawrence at about 4:40-got me by surprise as I was cooking out and playing with the boys!! What a wall of rain heading our way from Oklahoma!! As I said earlier: what a storm-and I say that from a purely weather perspective as I know there are alot of people being adversley affected by this storm and it is quite dangerous-but boy-blizzard in Western Kansas-tornados in Texas and heavy snowfall all the way into the Dakotas-just an incredible massive storm!!!
After reading the previous blog I just wanted to say that I love your enthusiasim(sp-again!!!lol) regarding the weather-you are so right when you described the dream: 2 artic out breaks, an ice storm, thunderstorms, and two snow storms-that is a good winter for sure. I have been discussing with people on some weather boards that although it has been warm over all, the plains have been incredibly active-yes, there is a swath from say Whicita to MSP that have missed most of the winter precip. but man from Colorado, Western Kansas, the Dakotas this Fall, Oklahoma, to the Ozarks-there has been alot of active winter weather-and even areas around here who have missed out have had good rain and we had more freezes this Fall than normal-so you are correct, what are we complaining about!!!!! I do think we will still get 1-2 more good winter events this winter-too much time left (January-mid March) and unlike last winter, we are not dry as water bowl after two days in the August sun!!!! Have to keep the faith!!
Have a great New Years and be safe!!! I am waiting to hear the first patter of rain drops on my roof!!!!! Thanks again for taking the time to read my posts-I'll say it again, it is an honor for me as a hobbyist to discuss weather with you!!
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Bill,
I enjoy the conversation in the blog with you and all of the bloggers. Thank you for participating and let's hope we have those two winter events. There should be 10 to 15 in a typical winter.
Gary
Posted by: Bill Gollier at December 29, 2006 6:36 PM
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I know we are all hopeful and trying to think positive and all. However, a dose of reality needs to be infused some where here. We have been in a prolonged dry period of years with little spurts of precipitation. Winters have been especially dry. I know because I hear about it every time my wife tells me how much she misses it!!!
So there might be cold air on January 10. So what - without the moisture in the right place at teh right time, it will just be cold. No sense of it being cold without snow!
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Leonard,
If it is going to be cold then it better snow. But, it isn't dry this winter. It is rather wet so far.
Gary
Posted by: Leonard at December 29, 2006 6:52 PM
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Hello Gary,
So no snow Sunday into Monday, maybe a shower?
Anne
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Anne,
There is a chance, slight.
Gary
Posted by: Anne at December 29, 2006 8:47 PM
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Sounds exiting,but today it felt like spring with not only the warmth, but with the moisture in the air with it, I even saw a bee outside at work today,weird!!(a holiday bee?):)
As for this storm it is a monster, if only I was born in Goodland Kansas(not really because then I wouldn't have you to watch)
Thanks for your time.
Nick(ready for the rainstorm)in St. Joe!
Oh, and HAPPY NEW YEARS to you, the rest of the weather team and to all the bloggers!!!
Nick,
Thank you. By the way Goodland has 20" of snow on the ground with another 3-6" likely. Oh to be in Goodland!
Jeff
Posted by: Nick Rau at December 30, 2006 12:16 AM
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