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Gary:

Cancel my last blog!!!! I think I was sending it just as you were posting the update!!! I love the further south track and the possibility of some good rain from this!!! Man, what if by tomorrow it is about 100 miles further south than what lates guidence shows now??? This for sure makes the next two days much more intense for you!!!! Thanks for keeping everything updated!! I still think it will be fun to watch the weather in Western Kansas!!!
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Bill,

This storm is getting more interesting. The new data is about to roll out again, so let's see if these trends continue.

Gary

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Hey I just got home and looked at the new data. its good news hopefully it will continue to trend southward. Far enough south that Appleton City will get more snow. Where has the low formed?
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Daniel,

You should watch the second storm for snow and the first storm for rain.

Gary

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How much farther south does the storm have to go to bring us significant snow?
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Charles,

We would need the upper low to track south of Kansas City for us to have much of a chance, but if it comes close to us we could have some snow on the wrap around?

Gary

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Gary

With regards to the track of these storms we keep getting I was wondering what kinds of things influence the track of a storm such as this one. You often talk about how the key is where the low forms and begins to track. Once it begins to head in a certain direction is this set in stone or are there other factors that can push the low more southerly/northerly after it has already begun to track a particular direction?
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Shawn,

The latest data takes the storm northeast to near the KS Nebraska border then turns it east. So, anything is possible. I could go on for a half hour about how the storm track could change from day to day.

Gary

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Gary, this is a question from eairler DAYS ago. I hate to sort of BARGE into another persons question but when you replied someone you said that the NAM would be getting some changes done to it. Do you know what they are now, and will it make your forecast MORE ACCURATE? Finally, how often do you plan to post how far ahead you are than the other stations in accuracy?
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Alden,

Since we are nearing the end of the year I will post the accuracy ratings soon. Some people think that I am creating a weather war by posting the weather accuracy ratings, but I disagree.

Gary

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Gary,

If the storm does track farther south, would we see some snow? Would there be any big accumulations? And what is that chance of snow for thursday?

Andy
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Andy,

There is always a chance at this time of the year. Let's see how we feel later tonight and Tuesday.

Gary

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Gary,
Take a look at early october, well 10ish or so. Late 10s in November. And about 384 hrs out on the 18z GFS. Almost scary.

Doug Heady
KOAMTV
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Doug,

It is amazing, but the GRC has happened again!

Gary

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Dear Gary,
Do you think that we could have any acumulating snow on the back side of this system. Do you think that one these storms behind this big storm on Wednesday will give us any acummulating snow.

Sincerly Charles,

P.S. Keep up the good work.
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Charles,

Yes, there is a chance! But, we will have to wait and see where the upper low ejects out. It is closing off and becoming quite strong. Maybe the upper low will wobble our way.

Gary

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I am still sticking with the blog posting from earlier today before the latest run...

....Gary, I hate the models. Ok..that is out of my system. Looking at the 21st, is it possible that the strong jet/trough in the NW Pac could push and dissolve the ridge more than what is shown diving this thing a bit south? Dunno..don't remember seeing a vort in this area this year...still hard to believe....

Looking at the newest runs of the GFS and NAM, the models tried to over develop the ridge allowing this to move too far north. I would not be suprised to see this come yet further south. Also, I have not bought in on the next one after this one going so far south. Seems to be a typical track for these now, and both of these have deviated on the models.

Booo to the models! All praise the GRC!
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Scott,

This is about to become a true "cut off low, weatherman's woe".

Gary

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Gary,I know the models dont come in for a bit but just looking at the satellite pictures this storm may trend a bit south,what are your latest thoughts.
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Jeremy,

This is going to be one of our stranger storms.

Gary

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Gary,

I really am fascinated by the track of these storms and I understand that it's far too much for a blog posting but is there a resource that I could look at on the web that kinda gives me some information? Thanks.
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Shawn,

Go to: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

You can see the charts on this site. It is very reliable. Look at 500 mb for the best look at the upper low.

Gary

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Hey Gary,

What's up with the GFS for this weekend? It is blasting us with snow for a 24 or 36 hour period. What are your thoughts?
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Corey,

It isn't really blasting us but it does bring the snow into our area on Sunday and Monday. Let's see if this trend continues.

Gary

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Gary,
what are odds for northwest missouri get some snow out of this second storm? Northwest missouri miss out on big snowstorm at end of november. Iam hoping the snow will hit northwest missouri this time. Jason
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Jason,

Right now it isn't even close for you. It could change. It more likely goes to far south. But, watch this first storm carefully for a Thursday or Friday chance of snow?

Gary

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Gary:

Thanks for the three reponses today!!! Kids are in bed, my students take their exams tomorrow so I got an hour to follow the weather!!!! The staelite picture tonight is pretty awesome-you can see the low in Western Arizona and how it is spinning up mositure into Western Kansas-they are going to get some much needed moisture!!! This low seems to have formed a bit further south tham models progged-could be interesting-it does look like we have a less a chance of getting dry slotted-thank goodness!!! The 0z Nam was further south than the 18Z Nam but not quite as far south as the 18z GFS-I still don't know how you do it-this storm seemed a lock with the track into the Dakotas-now....still up in the air somewhat!! New Data, New Data, New Data (as you used to put on the air at 10:00!!!) Thanks again-I really enjoy this blog!!!!
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Bill,

I still have the computer that said the "new data" statement for me. Maybe I should try it again tonight.

We are glad you are enjoying this blog. I am at it full time. And, I enjoy it too. I used to play weather games that I made up when I was a little kid. This is a real weather game and it is fun. But, in my kid weather games the weather was almost always fulfilling in fantasy. Reality is more frustrating.

Gary

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I think the big thing to remember with this low is that it is a "cut off low" and therefore it will literaly be a spining top wobbling around as it ejects out from the mountains so it is interesting but I'm far from ecxited for snow yet, but if it ends up being just a good rain that's still pretty good!
Nick(still happy there is a decent storm to watch) in St. Joe!
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Nick,

It is nice that we at least have rain heading our way. Let's hope we get something as a bonus storm after this goes by.

Gary

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Hello Mr. Lezak,
When do you expect the rain to arrive? It seems to be moving northward. (Down towards OK City.)
Snow chances looking better for Leavenworth?
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Ben,

Snow chances are still very slim, but we will get some nice rain.

Gary

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This next storm is looking very interesting. I would love to have more snow!!! The models for a while were all over the place but I am starting to see a trend in the models taking the storm further south. I hope this trend contiunes. It is going to be a close call with the storm that could affect us around Christmas.
When does the new model data come out? Is it 6am 2pm 10pm??? I dont know the times. I am ready for some snow on Christmas!!! Come on SNOW!!!
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John,

The times are around 9 to 10 AM, 3 to 4 PM, etc.

Gary

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Gary,
Well, the OZ GFS continues the trend of tracking the upper level low a little farther south. The storm seems to have a pronounced dry slot after the warm advection rains move by. I am also concerned about the continued lack of arctic air after the storm moves by.
The active Pacific pattern continues to prevent arctic air from moving southward out of Canada. Will this pattern change back to a cold and snowy pattern for the plains in January? KCI and Minneapolis have nearly the same amount of snowfall so far this season!
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Devin,

KCI, Omaha, and Des Moines are still waiting for their first inch.

Gary

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Gary:

Good Morning-wow, quite the storm organizing itself out in the southwest. Has a very spring like feel to it with the rain to the south and east and heavy snow on the north and west side-very interesting to read the HWO out of Goodland this morning-Western Kansas looks to get quite the winter event. As of now, it looks good for us to see some decent rain area wide tomorrow-yippeee!!!! I was wondering how windy you think it will be here on Thursday as the upper low swings past us-looks like a typical mid March day with gusty North West Winds but temps. staying in the upper 30's.

Sunday/Monday still looks interesting-if one considers how rare it is for us to get snow (not flurries) on Christmas Eve and Christmas-even an inch would be great-set your sights low and you won't be disappointed-at least there looks to be a chance-many Christmas's past there would not have been a chance!!!

Thanks again-good luck the next 3-4 days-if this low decides to jog about 50 miles further south than what the models prog, would make for an interesting day Thursday!!!!
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Bill,

Since it is so vertically stacked there probably won't be that much wind. It will be exciting to track this storm.

Gary

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The radar echoes in northern Texas are increasing and are neading our way that could be what we get tonight.
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Charles,

By the time I am on at 5 and 6 PM there should be rain crossing into Kansas and heading our way. A very interesting storm.

Gary

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What do the new models show please south of KC or maybe close enough to give us snow?
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Charles,

We probably won't know until sometime Wednesday. It could come close.

Gary

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If we do get snow how much do you think we could get?
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Andrew,

We can't talk amounts when we don't even know if it is going to snow. If it starts looking like it will snow then we can talk.

Gary