**********
I just looked at the GFS and that is a cold storm.
--------------
Charles,

Yesterday it looked very warm. I like the trend. Let's see if it continues.

Gary

************
Gary:
Not trying to get anyone's hope up, but the GFS for Christmas Eve, and Christmas day looks exciting. I do understand that we are 12 days out, and a lot can happen between now and then. But would like you take on what your seeing? Thank you and keep up the good work.
----------------
Kevin,

The 00z and 06z runs of the GFS have started a nice trend towards a colder and stormier solution. I don't have confidence yet in making a Christmas week forecast. I may feel like doing one later today.

Gary

************
Morning Gary. I looked at the GFS 10 days out and there are a couple of other meteorologists in Kansas I listen to and follow and they are hinting of an exciting time towards the end of next week through Christmas week. I will be looking forward to your updates concerning that situation. Take care, Michael/Topeka
--------------
Michael,

Based on my theory we should have a few stronger systems move by in the next two weeks. And, if the heights get a bit lower aloft, then it will be cold. It is certainly getting more exciting. If this trend continues.....you know I will be all over it. I want two more model runs before I get a bit more excited.

Gary

*************
Gary-
This has caught my attention. Hope this keeps trending towards a colder and stormier solution and does not miss my house by 40 miles this time. Thanks for keeping it exciting.
-----------
Brett,

The trend continues, although this latest run is VERY WEIRD.

Gary

*************
Dec 21, the solstice, marks the beginning of winter as defined by astronomy. But for meteorology, the winter season begins December 1. That's why the "winter forecast" from NWS is for December, January, and Feburary.
--------------------
Rob,

I still go with atronomical winter and not meteorological winter. Why start winter on December 1st? It should have started on November 29th with our ice storm with that reasoning? In my mind winter begins next week.

Gary

************
Good morning Gary!

Is there a paticular website that I can view the GFS models? Reading the blogs, I think several are viewing these graphical forecasts and just wanted to be able to do the same. Thank you.

Don
------------------
Don,

This site is awesome: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

The data comes in every 6 hours. I like the 500 mb level and the surface the best.

Gary

Gary

************************
Hey Gary - I was looking at the long range Christmas day forecast from the weather cahnnel and saw that there might be a chance for some snow on Christmas. What is your best guess for a little white Christmas in Olathe
------------------
Michael,

A slight chance right now, but there is a chance.

Gary

*******************
Gary,
The 12Z GFS is staying fairly consistent showing the storm around the 20th to 21st with some decent cold air. However I am encouraged that the models are finally backing off on the strong Pacific flow for the later periods. Hopefully, that trend will continue, and the snowpack will build back up farther north. The Pacific pattern is leading to no snow on the ground in Minnesota or southern Canada right now.
Devin
---------------
Devin,

And the 18z messed up, I hope.

Gary

**********************
Gary,

You don't necessarily need to post this message on your blog, but I wanted to just take a minute and give you a sincere 'thanks' for your time and patience in responding to the blog entries (including mine!).

In my mind, these last several years have been trying times for weather and storm buffs in our region. Fortunately my livelihood does not depend on it, but there are times I get really down about the persistent dry and warm pattern. Except for a couple of short breaks, our area (Colorado) has been in this pattern since Fall 1999. A person can't ever give up hope, and that's what I like about your attitude and blog: it is a place to share ideas, hopes, fears, etc. with like-minded people. I have not found any other place quite like it, and I appreciate the opportunity to participate at least in a small way.

Let's hope some more significant moisture is in our immediate future!

Happy holidays,

Doug F

P.S. - this doesn't exactly cover the KC area, but have you followed any of Klaus Wolter's forecasting work (I think he is with NOAA in Boulder)? He puts out a monthly experimental forecast what can be found at:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/SWcasts/index.html

It covers the interior southwest US, but what is happening in that area certainly has a bearing on the weather you get. One thing Klaus points out, and I have observed this to be pretty true, is that El Nino may not have much affect on our winters (like it does in some areas), but often does result in wet and stormy springs. So if this winter turns out to be boring (or even if it doesn't), look out for some wild weather this spring!
-------------------------------
Doug,

Thank you so much! We are glad you get to participate in our blog.

I am expecting you to have a wetter spring. It isn't necessarily because of El Nino, but the ridge off the west coast should allow for some bigger upper lows in March and April. Let's hope so.

Gary

************************
Gary, any definition of "season" is going to have an arbitrary cut off. But to me, Dec 1 makes a lot more sense than Dec 21. It is almost always very cold during the first part of December, and this year was no exception.

Also, the astronomical start date changes every year. So your winter starts on a different date every year. Does that make sense?
------------------
Rob,

It does make sense, but I still vote for the winter solstice.

Gary

************
Correct me if I'm wrong, MB levels are elevation in the atmosphere? How do those equate to feet? like 500 mb is say 10,000 feet (I know I'm wrong on that, but it was an example).

Thanks,
Dave
----------------------------
Dave,

MB or a milibar is a measure of pressure. So, 0 MB would be the top of the atmosphere as there would be no pressure, or in other words no weight of the atmopshere above you. You would be at the top of the atmosphere.

1000 mb is near sea level and is the pressure we experience here on the ground. 500 mb, my favorite level in the atmosphere for tracking storm systems, is half way through the atmosphere in weight and is roughly 18,000 feet up. Barometers measure pressure, and an altimeter will measure how high above sea level you are and it is also measuring pressure which is closely related to what elevation you are at.

Gary

**************
Well, we had our winter blast--well in advance of winter--and now nothing so far for the month of December. I'm not holding my breath for the possibility of a stormier pattern, it has seemed that, with the exception of this past winter storm (awesome job on the prediction of the path and snow totals, by the way), the storms are following a similar pattern as last year. They are forming west, blowing through dry, and marrying up with moisture east of us. This is not the way to recover from an extremely dry spring and summer. Hopefully the models to continue to converge on a colder and stormier solution for the next two weeks, we definitely need it.
-----------------
Mike,

This is a completely different pattern than last year, but it is once again a struggle. Next week will be our next test as the storm is already looking extremely strange.

Gary

********
With all this hubbub over the GFS model, I decided to take a look(I brought a BIG grain of salt with me:)). I don't know about the 12Z run, it looked to me like it slows down the trough, digging it just west of Mexico, and then not swinging it through until about day 9, and it looked like it kept us warm through at least Wednesday, Oh well it will look a world different in the next few runs im sure.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
---------------------
Nick,

I need that grain of salt this morning. Looking at all of these models is almost painful each day. We better get a storm next week.

Gary

**************
Still thinking a little system before xmas, then a bigger one around the 27th. Then we hit that stretch of warm temps and dry days, the panic period.

Doug
KOAMTV
-------------------
Doug,

Unfortunately, if you look closely at the weather pattern that we are cycling through, there are systems that may go by that have happened before, but they are all strange.

Gary

**************
Gary, I know its very difficult to get excited this far out..but based on the GRC, well..you know. Its coming. How it hits or exactly where is the mystery..but I guess when dealing with the public or in blogs, you cannot stand 100% on the GRC...

But you should.

I have my shovel/snowblower ready. I trust the GRC.
----------------------
Scott,

I do utilize the GRC as much as I possibly can. But, here is the problem. Each time through the cycle the pattern may be the same, but different things happen. And, a slight difference in the storm systems can make a huge difference in what we experience. Even more importantly, the flow this time through may be a bit more amplified. It is still the same, but if we block things up or if it becomes more amplified we could have major differences in what we experience. This is why I always hesitate, especially when we are going through the less defined features in fast flow.

And, we are NOT certain that it is a 40 day cycle or so. We should know a lot more within weeks. It is usually January when we say, "now we know what the pattern is". Remember, as of this moment according to my theory, the weather pattern shows itself during October and early November and then begins cycling. So, the first true cycle may still be happening. We just don't know yet. Oh, we think we can see the pattern, but the entire cycle may yet have an interesting twist or two. Something is still very wrong. A storm coming into the west has trouble, unless it is moving into Seattle.

Gary

Gary

***********
Gary, today I heard that a ,(and I know this could be what you say) another station said that ON CHRISTMAS, we would have snow showers and a high in the upper 20's (I won't say the actual). Is this possible? You dont have to let me know if that snow is possible yet, but isn't it still to early to tell what Christmas could be? I'll MAYBE let you know what more I can find out.
---------------------
Alden,

If I have any confidence at all then I would let you know what I think Christmas week would be like. I may gain that confidence today, or it could wait until next week. We believe it is irresponsible to forecast snow on Christmas based on one or two computer model runs this far out. If there was a strong trend towards winter weather that week then I would already have mentioned it. But, the computer models, and I am talking every long range model, have been all over the place, from very cold that week to very warm that week. So, I need another day to gain confidence in what will really happen.

You know I am hoping for a white Christmas, but at this moment it seems rather slight. It could snow before Christmas though with next weeks storm, but even that storm is looking different, very different, every day.

Gary

***************
Gary,
Also, we will have to watch next week. The GFS wants to pretty much cut off the low to the the SW. Well when this part of the pattern happened in early Nov. The GFS wanted to do the exact same thing, and it ended up cutting off in the SE US. In return dragged a lot of cold air south. So will the GFS be wrong again. What is going to happen. I remember the GFS didn't get a handle on it the first time until about 48 hours out. While the Euro had it about 100 hours out. Hmm interesting

Doug
KOAMTV
-------------------
Doug,

I remember what you are talking about. At this moment, the European model and the GFS have not figured this out. As we get within 96 hours maybe then we can see what is truly setting up. This is just a frustrating pattern.

Gary

*********
Gary,

I just think it is amazing how accurate you and your experienced weather team are!!
I was just wanting to know if you are liking the latest trends from the models for that next week storm? If it all sets up right could we be looking at another SNOWSTORM? I hope.

You guys are great
Andy
---------------
Andy,

I don't have a feel for this storm yet. It is looking so different today than it did yesterday.

Gary

**********
hey gary -

i heard that the pictures taken at wal-mart on saturday during the toys for tots drive were going to be available online. are they up somewhere that i can't find?

thanks,

charles
----------------
Charles,

I just went to our website and I don't see any pictures. I will try to find out later today.

Gary

************
Without sounding like a meanie or anything, is winter non existent anymore in Kansas City? I know that we have one huge snowfall each year, but I can not remember as a kid ever having to get shorts out for a 2 day heat wave. Is it just that we have had almost no winters in Kansas City for the last several years and some year things will go back to normal per se, or is this just the new norm for KC winters?
-------------
Keri,

Some winters are rather cold in Kansas City, but most are like this. We have ups and downs, warm spells, and cold spells. The cold spells sometimes last a week, but then it warms up. The one big difference I have seen the past few winters is the sunshine. We have been having sunny winters with not too many cloudy days. This could be the biggest difference of late. We are having "brighter" winters.

Gary

**************
Just looked at the 18 GFS and something just doesn't seem right. I wish I had the weather maps from 32 or 33 days ago to get a better idea how this storm will play out.

Another weather station is very much downplaying the situation because of El Nino, Pacific currents, and Artic air moving into Siberia instead of Canada. I'm not pointing this out for you to rebutt Gary, but instead to continue to point out the differences b/w your methodology of forecasting and more conventional wisdom.

Good luck tracking the next storm,

Snowlover
--------------------
Yeah, I don't want to know or go there. This weather pattern has all kinds of problems and it isn't because of El Nino, or other ocean currents. But, just the pattern we are in. When nothing happens then some forecasts just look better. As soon as a storm hits those other forecasts end up very wrong. This is all I will say on this matter.

At this moment we are still wondering about next weeks storm system.

Gary

***********
Gary..this is a hoot. I am liking the GRC more and more. Check out the 18Z for the GFS for Dec.25th. 500mb as usual. Ok...now, pull the map from Nov. 15th. [40 days sooner]. The map I looked at was the 12 hr 00Z. IT IS IDENTICAL. The only difference is this time..I think it will pull in the cold air to make it snow this time.

Thoughts?
-----------------
Scott,

This is one way to know we are cycling in this unique pattern when the models start showing the storm systems right about how they should look. But, then frustration will set in. You and I will know it is the same, but when the storm goes by and nothing happens it is tough to swallow. Just like the storm that went by this week. How did Omaha and Des Moines miss this and they are still waiting for their first snow? Something is still very wrong. This weather pattern is just not as exciting as I had hoped. It is too frustrating. But there should be some rewards arriving soon. I hope?

Gary

*********
Gary,
At least the 18Z GFS is giving us a little cold air for next week, and after. I am hoping that we will have some snow opportunities and arctic air soon!
Devin
----------------
Devin,

The GFS may be just playing with our minds.

Gary

***************
Gary,

The overnight data looks amazing for that next storm? But will it still look like that in a few days? What are your thoughts? I want a big SNOWSTORM!
Andy
------------------
Andy,

There is potential, but the 06z data was not as impressive.

Gary

*************
Gary:

Thanks for the comments yesterday!! I'm in the middle of writing/grading finals (I would much rather take a final than write and grade one!!!!) so I'm only getting to catch glimpses of the weather. I think it is good that the models are still showing change for next week although they really can't get a grip on what that change will be. It seems to me that the EURO is keeping the energy back in the SW too long (I have read that this is a problem with the model)which in turn messes up the whole output. The GFS does the same and creates a monster ridge in the SE which causes the low to move right over us-I just can't buy that track. Two weeks ago, the models really didn't pick up on a consistent solution until about Saturday so we have a long ways to go!!! With indicies looking pretty good (not great-darned EPO) I think change is in the air-hard to think about it with the next few days being so warm, but that is the weather here-a few cold periods with warm periods sprinkled in!!!
As far as my comments yesterday it is something I talk to people about constantly-every time we have a warm period the old "global warming" is brought out-not that I don't think we are seeing a shift in climate but I try to say that if you look at the daily temp. records of the past 100 years, you would be surprised to see that there are more days 45 degrees and above in December and Jan. than there are 20 and below. To me, we have 2 massive warm air sources which are not all that far away: the deserts of the south west and the Gulf of Mexico-both of those many times trump the cold air to the North esp. since they battle the same issues even in southern Canada-oh and the third one: Chinook winds-to think about it, it is amazing we average as much snow as we do!!! (We are south of the 40th parallel!!!!) Winters like the late 70's and early 80's to me are the abnormal ones not nec. our past 3-4 winters. Just getting something off my chest!!! Thanks again for all the info. you share and all the work you do in the community-I would love for you to come to Lawrence some time!!! Have a great day!!!
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Bill,

Great points. I think that we will start getting a more realistic look at what this storm may do very soon. Either today or tomorrow we should get a more reliable solution. I just hope it at least rains.

Gary

***********
Enjoy the blog very much, but I'm not sure I follow the dialogue about the "GRC." I googled it but came up with nothing. Could someone please give a brief overview? Thanks
-------------------
Rick,

Here is the brief history of the GRC. For about 20 years now I have noticed some organization to the chaos in the upper level weather patterns. A weather pattern sets up between October and early November and then begins cycling. This pattern will continue through mid to late summer before falling apart. This is my theory. And, every year is unique.

One of our bloggers, Scott, named it the GRC for Gary's Recurring Cycle.

It has happened again. We are in a unique pattern right now and we have it almost completely figured out. At the same time it is very complex.

So, read on during the next few weeks and you will learn a lot more. And, I believe you will see what I am talking about. I also believe this could be a major discovery.

Gary

**********
Just a quick comment on mb and heights in the atmosphere. These heights are variable. The maps you see on the model output that depict troughs and ridges are actually showing the height of the 500 mb layer. As you might expect, the higher heights are ridges and the lower heights are troughs.
------------------
Rob,

Exactly! The 500 mb level varies in height. It is roughly 18,000 feet up. But it will vary slightly depending on if there is a low height area or a high height area. This is why you should never say that there is an upper level low pressure area. You can say there is an upper level low, but a low height area.

Gary

******************
Gary,
I was looking at the 6Z GFS 1000-500mb thickness map at 180-192 hours and the track of the low looks very similar to the last big storm we had in late November and early December. Hopefully the track of this storm will shift north over time because the models have underestimated the amount of cold air that would come down from Canada with the East Pacific ridging in this type situation before. Arctic air with staying power looks to be tough to find with the Pacific flow STILL in control.
Devin
------------
Devin,

We will want this storm to track further south. Let's see what we think in another day or two before getting excited about rain or snow. I am about to blog about it as the new data is so wet. But, I will remind everyone of all of the possibilities.

Gary

******
Gary:

I love snow more than anyother weather, but I totally agree with you-I hope we at least get some rain-man is it dry!!! Great point up above about the sun-it has been pretty dry 5 out of the last 7 years-many sunny days the past winters (and summers and...)this is def. a reason for the warmer or even what seems warmer!! The drought we are in, I think is playing a big part in our overall pattern-so I totally agree with you-please mother nature, give us some precip!!! (Even a cloud????? lol)
----------------
Bill,

The new GFS goes nuts with rain. I will blog about it in a few minutes.

Gary