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Gary,
Is it just me or does this years pattern appear to cycle very quickly? It seems as though we get warm and dry, then the rain comes followed by much cooler temps which leads to rain/snow then another dry warm up? Is that close? What does it look like to you?
Thanks for the great work!
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Erin,

Last year we were in around a 60 day cycle. It appears this year is closer to 40 days. I may adjust this number as we go through this first or second full cycle. It is usually in December or early January when we finally figure it out. If it is 40 days or so then we have some ups and downs yet to come in the next month. It shouldn't be completely boring.

Gary

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I hope the northland gets some snow soon
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Charles,

It is more than just the northland. Omaha, Des Moines and many locations north of us are wondering when it will snow as well. Maybe next week, but it is too strange to get excited about it yet.

Gary

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Good morning Gary and welcome back after some your well deserved days off. So you are possibly seeing some colder weather and maybe a storm next week. Does this milder weather this week follow your weather theory pretty wee? I am keeping track of the changes and the days that cycle. It is interesting but I still say our weather is different than 30-40 years ago. Say one question I do have, as meterology has evolved as a science and become more sophistocated, has there been evidence that these el-nino's and la-nina's always existed or are they a result of the weather patterns changing due to whatever. Thanks, michael/Topeka
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Michael,

Historical records speak of an El Nino that took place in 1567. So, we can say with some strong confidence that El Nino is not a recently developing phenomenon. The weather may be a bit different than 30-40 years, and it will likely be different 30-40 years from now. I believe every year is unique, so every 30-40 year stretch of weather will also be unique.

Gary

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Gary, I guess I feel better about when I predicted snow, as your guess petered out as well. What is up with this low? I expected much more from it per the cycle..but alas...not much. This further solidifies your claim that the pattern remains, but the result will often differ. 40 days ago, this was much more of a storm. Don't know if you read the weekend blogs, but I have retired the SMCv.2 as its not necessary now that the GRC has established itself. It was only good for the first 20 days of the GRC anyway as I learned. Looking forward to next week!
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Scott,

Yes, I read your blogs. We are still not certain it is a 40 to 43 day cycle. Last year I thought it was 54 days. I was convinced, but a few weeks later we noticed it was closer to 60 or 62 days. So, let's see what happens on this second round.

This storm is very similar to the one 40 days ago. It is not quite as strong. This sometimes happens. I always think the storm systems will be stronger in December, January and February. But, as we can see it really varies a lot. It depends on how much northern branch energy is involved and how everything is setting up at the surface too.

Anyway, there is hope next week, but something is still wrong with this pattern.

Gary

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Good morning Mr. Lezak,

I was wondering if the Snowflake contest got sorted out. It's not that I had a chance in Helsinki to win, but I'd be curious to know how close the winner was. If I remember correctly, I was about 11 hours off, so I'm sure there are quite a few people closer than that. Sorry if I missed any announcement that already answered my question.
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Ron,

The winner got within 9 minutes. She guessed 3 PM. The first one inch fell at 2:51 PM. Second place guessed 3:07 PM, missing it by 16 minutes. We will be showing the winners on the 10 PM newscast Wednesday night.

Gary

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I know you don't know a whole lot about this potential winter storm in a few days, but I was wondering if it would happen around Christmas. I really want a white Christmas this year, as do a lot of other people. Do you think that may be possible or are you seeing brown in the future?
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Justin,

It is still early, but the chance of a white Christmas is fairly slim right now.

Gary

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I am trying to stay optistic about this year's pattern. Although it seems to be slightly better than last year, the pattern does not seem to be what most of us would have hoped for. Instead of being nearly 100% boring as last year's, this year seems to be shaping up as 70-80% boring with a few storms (or chances for storms) thrown in once in awhile. Is this generally consistent with what you are seeing?

In our area (Colorado) I will say that September and October had much more active weather than we have been seeing since then (with the exception of the storm about 2 weeks ago).
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Doug,

I am debating right now if this is better than last year. I am very concerned right now, but it is early.

Gary

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40-42 day cycle. This is good. I am getting married the First weekend in January. I am hoping we get the nice weather we had over Thanksgiving. I'd be happy with upper 40's. I am praying that We don't have a huge snow storm right before / during the wedding. If your cycle holds water, no pun intended ;) we will return from our honeymoon with some snow on the ground :)
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Jereme,

The early part of the year will be a test to the pattern.

Gary

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When you say the ingredients for a major winter storm may be around next week, what exacty are the ingredients? Can you elaborate on this? Thanks!
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Marlina,

The latest data doesn't even come close to enough cold air. If it starts looking like there is potential then I will go over the ingredients at that time.

Gary

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Some of the computer models are saying that there is a storm developing in the central plains next tuesday. As of right now they are saying that it is most likely to be rain, but there might be a chance of snow if colder air funnels in behind it. As of right now are you seeing that possibilty of a white Christmas? It should get interesting next week:) John
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John,

Good observation on the models. You are learning. I don't like what I am seeing right now so I will wait to comment until tomorrow.

Gary

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Gary,
I hope that you had a good break!
One thing about this pattern that I have noticed is that nothing seems to last a very long time, so when it is boring we shouldn't have to wait too long:)
One question I do have though is I don't think I seen the return of the "Great Lakes Low?" I have seen something like it but lately it seems to be up in Canada, Is that the same low just farther north than you thought?
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

The Great Lakes low has been trying to come back, but in strange ways. I just don't like it right now. It is too boring for me.

Gary

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Gary you keep saying strange and weird weather patterns. What is a normal weather pattern? And is it normal for the warm ups we get in winter? it seems like when I was a kid (30 years ago) when it got cold it stayed cold. Thanks Michael in DeKalb, Mo.
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Michael,

I can't argue with you right now. Usually when we have a true Arctic outbreak it will last for about a week to ten days. If it is to be a really cold winter then it returns two or three times. This first Arctic blast this season lasted a couple of days. But, there is no snow on the ground anywhere from here northward and it is an important factor.

Gary

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A large thunderstorm cell has formed in Northeast Kansas! (Something to watch at least!):)
BTW you are debating weather this pattern is going to be better than last years? Yikes!!
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

This year better win? I still think it will, but when it gets boring, man does it get boring.

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Gary:

I just wanted to say welcome back and hope you had a relaxing time off (though it sounds like you worked quite a bit!!!)
I'm excited about this winter and think it will be much better than last-Of course there will be stretches of boring dry mild weather (when is there not here-we are not all that far from a desert!!!!) but I think when it gets exciting, it will be gang busters. To me, we have had too many freezes this Fall which to me shows we will get some cold air. I guess I'm trying to say is to keep hope alive-as you know (though people seem to forget and only rememebr the cold times) this area rarely locks into 2-3 weeks solid of cold weather-past temp. data shows you have a better chance of it being 50 here than 15-i.e. this is not Nebraska or South Dakota!!!!
Next week looks more interesting as the indicies seem to be lining up, the EURO continues to show good 500 ht falls and the GFS, flip floppy from run to run though it is, continues to show a change (at least I think I am reading it correctly)-I think it looks some what similar to two weeks ago. Awseome blog and thanks so much for sharing all this information-have a great day!!!!

PS: My biggest concern this winter is just how dry some areas are around here-Lawrence is 8 inches below normal and that can really affect snow etc. I want snow to be sure, but right now, I would take rain as well-just give us some moisture!!!!
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Bill,

Great blog comment. A fantastic way to start my day. Thanks! I agree with most of what you are saying. There are features that exist in the upper levels that should have already resulted in more precipitation than we have seen. There is a persistant ridge near 145 west at low lattitudes which teleconnects well to troughiness in the southwest. There are other features that are also there that should provide a cold air source. The next two weeks have a lot of potential as we cycle through this pattern.

Also, I must add to one of your statements. Let's make sure we give the European model fair play. It only comes out twice a day, so we don't see it as often. But, it flip flops just as much as the GFS.

Gary

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Gary,

i kno the pattern you talk about always repeats, I was just wondering when did the pattern for the next few weeks happen before?

Thanks
Andy
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Andy,

Right now we think we are going through the end of October into the first part of November. But, you must remember that the jet stream is getting stronger and even though we are in that part of the pattern different specific things are happening and may continue to happen. The same pattern can cause completely different things at the surface that we experience.

We are convinced that the pattern is now cycling, but the exact length of the cycle has not yet been determined. Our first guess is close to 40 days. But, let's see what we think by the end of the year. We should really have a more confident idea by then.

Gary

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Gary,
I have always wondered just how do we know there are no two snowflakes alike?
Thanks,
Gina P
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Gina,

I have seen many snowflakes that look identical, but they are likely different if you get down to the minute detail under a microscope.

Gary