Do you know of a web site that has a map with the current frezzig line on it?

Hello Jeff,
Here in the metro, do you think the snow will be on grassy surface's and the street be mainley wet?
Thank You
Anne

*****************
Hi, Guys!
Greetings from Ohio! It is nice to see you getting some rain there... although you have a long way to go to make up that 7" yearly defecit.

I almost forgot what it was like to have regular rains... we usually have a rainy period one or two days each week here. It is nice to have, of course, but I don't think Mags is very used to it! She doesn't like the rain too much...

So here's a question: what do you do with a high-energy lab when it's raining outside? This is what we must figure out! She is sooooo bored! She needs to RUN!!

Anyway, with all the mention of rain... you can see it's not a real "winter" here in Ohio, either! We have been WELL above average... a full SIX degrees above average Dec. temps. That big storm from last week brought us rain... and a little snow... about 1.6" at the airport, just north of Dayton.

I was forecasting a 1-2" total across the area... so that was good. BUT the frustrating part... for most of Montgomery County and our entire southern viewing area... NOTHING! I know you know how that feels...

Anyway, we are definitely looking forward to some real cold weather! But we hope it doesn't coincide with our move into the new house! It might, however, looking at the LRC!

Take care, everyone! And have a wonderful 2007!
Jamie
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Jamie,

Happy New Year to you too! I was thinking about you while earlier today and I will try to call you this week.

Snow is moving our way. So, you know how I am feeling right now. I am not too excited though as it could still fall apart.

You must play chase with Mags inside for 20 minutes. Then she can get her exersize on rainy days, or you can get another dog. Breezy goes into Hyper mode and the run around until they are both worn out. Stormy does the chasing, but Breezy is in control.

Gary

Gary,
Well, at least the snow today is a good sign.It will be interesting how the different models handle the potential pattern shift for the middle of January. The exact placement of the strong high pressure ridge in the Pacific will help to determine what areas get the arctic air. I am hoping the models develop the ridge near the Gulf of Alaska.
Right now, Beatrice Nebraska has 0.25 mile visibility and heavy snow in the middle of the snow band as of 10:00 AM. The snow band is barely moving!
Devin

Gary,
I live in Lee's Summit and I am getting kinda excited that we might see a few snow showers! About how much snow accumulation can we expect down here? I hope we see some anyway! Have FUN tracking this snow!!!

Jacob Honeycutt

Hello Mr. Lezak,
Happy new year weather team,

Is there a chance of any accumulating snows in the area, if so, how much do you predict will fall.

*****************
Gary, does the 145 ridge and the Great Lakes trough create the LRC for this year, or affect it?

PS>..good to hear from you Jamie! You need to come back time to time to keep Gary in check! LOL
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Scott,

The 145 west ridge is one of the "long term" longwave ridges. These long term longwave troughs and ridges set up in that crucial time, October 10th to November 10th. And, now they are there until August. It is more complex though. There are times when these features seem to go away. You can scramble them up, toss them into the trash after going through the shredder and they still pop back up days or weeks later. Amazing!

Gary

Gary:

Good Afternoon!!! Actually have some quite time today!!! Looks like the low is really weakening as it heads North East-the latest RUC has toned down the wrap around moisture-hope that line holds together!!! Saw where Mcpherson, Kansas got 2-3 inches-we are so close!!!

I'm just throwing this out here and I know you have tons on your plate today and for sure I may be way out on limb and beyond the "line", but I was wondering if you had ever thought about looking at 1989 as a test year for the LRC-we had the strong Artic outbreakk in February, the record lows on August-7-8 and then of course the massive just nutso artic outbreak in December-all within a very warm year overall (that summer was blistering as was January). I did a little checking, and around each cold/change event, a ridge popped up around the same place-this occured about every 50/60 days or so. I always will remember 1989 due to the extremes we saw that year in heat and cold (I mean 105 to minus 24-extreme to the max!!!) I have no idea if there is anything but it looks like the LRC can really be seen in that year and the surface weather was such that it might really show it. Just throwing it out there-again, I do not have anywhere close to the knowledge to see if it really does work, but with my limited ideas on the LRC it looks like something is there.

As always, thanks for reading-I find this stuff so fascinating-part of me really wishes I could have figured out math better lol!!!! I am praying this line holds together and the temp. continues to drop-would love to see a flake or two this evening!! Have a great New Years!!
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Bill,

Math is what got me through the hard times in college. I was lucky to be good at math.

Anyway, I haven't studied 1989, but it was during the late 80's when I saw this happening. Storm systems repeating, the same weather pattern returning etc. And, according to my theory, it happens EVERY YEAR without question. And, every year is unique. Can you believe that I am almost alone in this theory. How can others not see it?

Gary

Hi Gary,
We have NYE plans outdoors tonight in Lawrence. Any idea when you think the snow might end? Thanks!
Joe

Gary,

It's Snowing rather good here in Olathe,KS. Just wish the Ground wasn't too warm!!

Gary:

Snowing in Lawrence!!!!! More of a mist snow, but there is snow and I am at 32 currently!!! Flakes flying in the sky!! It may not be the "big dog", but man is it awesome to see!!!!

To be honest, I'm not sure how others can't see it-I think some are tied to the computer models and others are really into the AO, PNA, EPO and upper strospheric warming at the poles or the MJO-all play a role, but I really think your theory includes those as well-the reaccuring cycle is a reaccuring cycle and all those indices should go with the cycle. From what little I have looked or what little I actually know (lets be honest-I am just a hobbyist and not even a great one at that lol) I think that they do-thus, your theory is way ahead of these others!!!! Keep going after it-eventually you will get the evidence and if you ever find that reason for why the cycle does what it does each year (or maybe even an overall pattern with suttle difference in each year) you will have discovered the keys to the Porsche!!!!

Enjoying watching the snow out my window-I think I'm going to go out and play in it!!! Love the howling winds as well!! Have a fantastic New Years!!!! Yea snow!!!!!

Gary,

It's Snowing rather good here in Olathe,KS. Just wish the Ground wasn't too warm!!

Gary,

Light snow started in the western part of Lawrence about 15 minutes ago ...it is now 2 PM.

Bob

It's snowing here in Lawrence right now. The cars are already getting a little bit of snow on them. YES.

As of 2:00 this afternoon, we've got some fairly intense flurries here in western Leavenworth. I can only hope that it turns into "real" snow soon! We've had .85" of rain since yesterday - not bad for the end of December.

Snow in Platte city we have already had a dusting on some surfaces

***********WEATHER UPDATE FROM ST. JOE******
***********IT'S SNOWING AND EVEN STICKING ON SURFACES OTHER THAN ROADWAYS!!!!!!!!!********************************************
A VERY HAPPY NICK IN (FINALLY SNOWY)ST. JOE!!

Gary, is there any chance that the low could move futher south bringing us more snow. I know it could be too late for that. And by looking into the computers into the future for Januray, could we still see a big snow storm like we saw on the 30th of November? I would really like to know.
Happy New Year

***************
Still snowing here in St. Joe at about 4:00. The grassy surfaces and cars left outdoors have snow on them. This is a really nice present for the last day of the year from Mother Nature.

What about the long term trends? I know Jeff was saying something about the 10th of January with an Artic front. Are we still in line for that?

Have a Happy New Year!!!!

Brian in St. Joseph, MO
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Brian,

We will likely have the very cold trend by the 12th or so. More later. Right now enjoy your snow.

Gary

Hi all - I will share a bit of my journal, again:

From Saturday:

Far to our west, in Colorado and northwestern Kansas up into western Nebraska, Blizzard Warnings were issued, and extended down into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles! Dalhart, Texas and Boise City, Oklahoma were to endure intense snows, roaring winds up to 45 mph, and visibilities below a quarter mile, with many drifts. In southeast Colorado (and Adrian will remember this place where, along with JoAnne’s mom’s Lincoln, we ate dinner in the gathering gloom of an intense lightning storm, shooting bolts of liquid white in great zigzag course of scalding violence onto the scrubby prairie) around Springfield, amounts of two feet or a bit more were possible, and as of 1429 CST, it was advised that “visibilities were down to a quarter mile in many locations and winds were gusting to 35 to 50 mph. Reports from emergency officials indicate snow drifts were in excess of 4 to 8 feet (two feet taller than myself!!!) across Kiowa and Baca Counties.� Goodland up in the northwestern extremes of Kansas fared little better, with 14 inches of snow and the same blast of wind and chill.

In eastern Texas, with sultry, warm Gulf air richly supplying thunderstorms with energy, and the swirling mass of upper-air flow creating “absurd helicities�, a swarm of tornadoes scoured the grassland near and just east and northeast of Waco. Some verbiage from a Tornado Watch in that region concisely portrayed things – “Warm sector continues to become increasingly favorable for supercells given the high shear, helicity and low LCLs (lowest condensation level – how low cloud could form – the lower the development of the funnel, the less resistance to overcome to descend to the ground).

Indeed, reports came in of 22 twisters causing copious amounts of damage to out-buildings, damaging many homes, destroying 15, and lead to 1 fatality and 12 injuries, especially near Groesbeck in Limestone County. This occurred from 1900 until 0000 hours.

From today:

On Sunday December 31st, bright sun shone during part of the morning, but low, dull status swept in as the cold-front swept through Blue Springs, giving us a bit of drizzle – how exciting it was for me to feel those microscopic droplets on my cheek, and the increasingly chill upon my skin! Why, mowing grass couldn’t compare to my joy that moment. The northwestern corner of Missouri, up near Squaw Creek, the eagles would be enjoying a bit of winter, perhaps – one to two inches of sleet and snow were possible in the area of a Snow Advisory, though compare to two feet, this hardly seemed to warrant even mention.

.85 inches total at Blue Springs.

Let us hope we have more peace (what am I smoking?) in the next year.

Cheers,
The Dog

We got a good coating here in Lenexa. Very nice to see. I'll send you some pitures.

David

Weather Team,
You may have already taken this into thought, but I have and idea to make more people watch you guys for weather and news. The idea is that since thousands of people read the KC Star everyday, I thought you guys could post in there that NBC Action Weather PLUS is Kansas City's most accurate forecast and has been for more that 4 years in a row by Weatherate. It's just an idea that I thought of, so thousands of people would be reading everyday that YOU are the ONLY people we can TRUST for weather!
Happy New Year!!

we had a trace of snow in trenton today.. so i'm confused.. the NWS says measureable snow is .1" or greater.. so does that mean i didn't get any snow in dec?

Gary,
This afternoon (around 3-3:30 range), we had some flurries and light snow in the Shoal Creek area. The chairs and railings on the deck had a little white coat to them. Praise God!

New years eve and it is snowing just a little in Clinton,Mo!!! At 12:01 there was still some flurries around!!! What a great way to ring in the new year 2007!!! How is it looking right now for the jetstream,to come into place, and the ridge lock up so we get some cold air in here? Looking foward to thursday!!! I am also very excited about some more snow may be on its way!!!

Hey Gary!
A little off the subject, but most warranted with a slower wx week upcoming... Chiefs are dancing! I hope we can bring Lamar back his trophy! Go Chiefs!

Gary,
Just wanted to give you a little of our own South Overland Park statistics since 2006 is over. We have a weather station that we reset on January 1 every year. For 2006 there was 32.82 inches of precipitation at 158th and Horton. A very Happy New Year to you and we really enjoy and depend on your forecasts.
Barb

Gary and crew:
I just wanted to update you on how the storm did in Mn. We are located 120 miles west of the Twin Cities. Just about the whole area received one inch of rain. About 70 miles west of the Twin Cities they received over three inches of rain. No ice that was the unbelievable part. The snow kicked in closer to the Twin Cities and ended up producing anywhere from two to ten inches of snow. Lots of water from this system and we are thankful.
Wishing everyone in your area a Happy and weather-filled New Year.
Rod
C

Gary,
I have noticed that a very strong ridge in the southeast part of the country has been forecasted to move very slowly by the models. It seems that this strong ridge is what continues to help keep areas east of the Mississippi River above normal. Also, the OZ run was much colder for us than the 12Z run. It still seems like a favorable pattern to get arctic air here by the middle of the month.
Devin

Weather Team, I have an idea so that more people will watch you. Since, your forecast is in the KC Star and it says that you are certified by Weatherate, I thought that on one of the pages in the KC Star could say that NBC Action Weather PLUS is KC's most accurate forecast and has been for more that 4 years by Weatherate. That way, it would be its own little announcement that thousands of people would be reading and realizing that your forecast is the only one that we can TRUST. I dont know if you have already thought of this idea, but if not, it's just a crazy idea.

**************
Hello weather team!
WOW, the little bit of snow was the perfect thing to ring in the New Year! Just enough in St. Joe to make everything look rather white last night.
That storm was a behemouth with massive snows, to massive ice, to tornadoes!!!
Now the next two to three weeks is where "the rubber meets the road" so to speak, the models clearly show the pacific ridge amplifying right into Alaska, so the cold is coming now we just need a decent storm or two with it!(hey, the cheifs are in the playoffs so mabye this is a good sign!;))
I HOPE EVERYBODY HAD A GREAT NEW YEAR!!!
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

Thanks for the message and Happy New Year to you!

Gary