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Jeremy, go back and read the blogs for the last few days of October and first week of November. Yawn. Warm, and dry..then models showing the next storm a week out...this will be the storm that rolls in around Dec 15th.

I will do one thing that saddens me. After hours of research, I have found that the SMCv2. only works with the first 20 days of the GRC. Sooo...for the next few weeks, there will not be discussion of it. I will have to figure out the pattern of the second 20 days of the GRC. It all makes sense now...and for the lazy folks, you can check the weather by looking back at the blogs 40 days per the GRC, and then look forward to see what happened to what is going to happen.

Jeremy, quick question...were you aware of Gary's theory before you got here? Do you believe it? Do you bring any of your own theories?

Just some ideas for blog entries to kill time until the 15th.

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Scott,

I would like more information on your theory. Gary has presented me with his theory and so far it makes a lot of sense. I think to get a true opinion of it I need to see it in action for a year. As of now I'm a believer...but I'm open to all weather pattern theories or ideas. More than one idea or theory can be correct...there are many things that play a part in making the weather.

Jeremy

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Jeremy,
I am not liking this mild Pacific pattern forecasted by the computer models either, especially the GFS. Mild pacific patterns can result in downsloping winds for the plains. Also, the NAO and AO are positive and the Greenland block is non-existant. Even the UP of Michigan will be above freezing for highs all next week! Hopefully the pattern will change and we can get some snow and cold again soon.
Devin
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Devin,

The current pattern certainly has ups and downs...and we are headed up over the next week. Marquette, MI just picked up a foot of snow over the past 36 hours. Our snow will come soon enough(or not soon enough for some).

Jeremy

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Jeremy:
Glad to see you posting. I am in West Central Mn. near Willmar. I know you are from Mn. and I would like to ask you if the weather patterns for the K.C. area bring the same weather to Mn.? We are very dry and need moisture. No snow so far. Do we need the same blocking action that you need for storms to develop?
Thanks
Rod
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Rod,

Thanks for checking in. So far this season the only areas to see a good deal of snow are located from Oklahoma northeast to around Milwaukee. No big storms are headed to MN for the next week. The upper Midwest may see a couple of clipper type storms over the next week...but nothing that would bring you more than 0.05" of liquid. We'll keep our eyes on the second half of December...it should get more active then.

Jeremy

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I'll keep my fingers crossed that after this week the weather will be more exciting!
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The weather team will keep hoping for a storm too...many people want a 'White Christmas'. Let's just hope that the weather is ok for people traveling right around the 25th.

Jeremy

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Its Saturday and Todays forecast still shows Friday
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I'll talk to Gary about this. The 7 day forecast on the weather page is always updated. I'll look into the text portion.

Jeremy

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Sunday is the first day on the 7 day -- so no way of seein what todays forescast is.

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I just updated the 7 day at 2:30pm for the 5pm newscast. That is why the 7 day begins with Sunday. If the current day is ever missing you can always call the Weatherline. The number is 913-831-4141. The forecast is updated several times a day.

Thanks,

Jeremy

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Jeremy,
so...I know it's a long way out...but what is Christmas looking like this year??? I hope it's cold and wet (snowy!) I hope soooo! Oh, by the way, I want to let you know that you are doing an awsome job here on NBC! Glad you came!

Jacob
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Jacob,

Thanks for the kind words! Still too early to get an exact idea for the X-Mas week. But, right now it does look a little more active the week before X-Mas. So there is still a chance of a White Christmas in KC.

Jeremy

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WooHoo Jeremy,

You figured out how to update the daily forecast. That is really nice to be able to log and look at. Helps me plan my day!

Thanks!

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I'm learning something new everyday:)

Jeremy

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Jeremy, ok...my theory and how it relates to the GRC.

The GRC is a unique recurring cycle spanning 30-60 days as its whole. This is to say that within each whole cycle, there are a series of events to make the whole, which would mean any set of events in the whole could be thought of as a "mini cycle". This is how the SMC [Scott's Mini Cycle] was first seen.

Here is the trick. Its hard to have the SMC without the GRC, but based on the differences of how the cycles are determined..I think it is possible. The GRC reviews longwaves, shortwaves, and prominent H/L centers to define the environment of the cycle. The SMC is purely based on the frequency and locations of energy in a given timeframe. So..in this, it is possible to see a trend of events prior to knowing the full cycle environment. I believe that there are mini repeatable cycles even within the main GRC. The thing that is tough is really nailing down the pattern completely until the GRC is nailed down. This is why I had to shift from the original SMC to the second version SMCv.2

Recently, I have found that the SMCv.2 coorelates to the first half of the GRC and not the GRC in its whole. But in final thought, the SMC[v.2] is unnecessary once the GRC is defined completely, and one can go back and look at the corresponding day back one cycle in the GRC.

The main use of the SMC is to determine some trending of storms prior to the final determination of the GRC.
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Scott,

Thanks for posting the info...it sounds complex. Could you email me some examples from previous years? If you have maps to support your theory I would love to check it out. Just let me know. Or if Gary knows about your theory I can ask him too.

Jeremy

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Windy and mild today here in St. Joe.
I hope we do get a snow on or before Christmas because if we don't that is getting to close to us not having any significant snow before January and that would not be a good sign:( (I know it can change in an instant but its somthing to watch out for)
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. joe!
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The wind gusted to almost 40 mph at KCI today. Someone told me before I moved to KC that the wind never stops blowing.

Hopefully the models turn around and bring a storm in here...although it looks doubtful this week.

Jeremy

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I keep heering about the week before christmas is this our shot at real snow and does that figure into your pattern theroy thanks.
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There is potential during the next two weeks as we look at the part of the pattern we are now in. It wouldn't take much for us to have a major storm near by within the next 14 days.

Gary

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Jeremy, I just found this during this year. As I am not a meteorlogist nor have dedicated resources or time for this purpose, my current resources are a bit light. I have reflected some of the data scattered in previous blogs. Only recently have I learned where to get past 500mb maps. Soon, I hope to compile what would indicate the mini cycle. Or..if it sounds feasible, you can track it yourself...LOL
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Scott,

Keep me posted on your findings. I would like to see some examples of your theory when you get more information compiled. Thanks for the post!

Jeremy

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As much as I love the snow and rain..I'm looking for a clear dry day to make some good Christmas candy (fudge and divinity are my favorites). I suppose last weekend would have been good, but it just wasn't for me. Oh well, is friday my best shot this week? It helps me plan my week. Thanks a bunch.
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Wednesday through Saturday all look dry!

Gary