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More solutions than we can count
We have been tracking a storm for next week the last 5 days. We have seen so many solutions, it is hard to get a handle on what is going on. The latest data now has the storm tracking from Arizona to North Dakota! (See map below) This would mean a few hours of showers here next Thursday. It would be nice to see the storm track further south, south of KC. This would bring us copious amounts of rain, maybe ending as wet snow.
The bottom line is that nothing is set in stone. So Stay Tuned!
Have a great weekend!
This is valid next Wednesday.
Click to Enlarge
The new data came out Friday evening and it is about as bad as it can get. Gary and I just can't believe what we are looking at. This weather pattern just doesn't want to produce anything unless you are in Seattle.
Jeff
Posted by at December 15, 2006 4:23 PM
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Hi Gary, The early models showed a storm moving south and now north, so hopefully we're in between.
Gary B.
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I will blog tonight after the new data comes in.
Gary
Posted by: GaryB at December 15, 2006 4:38 PM
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The GFS is getting closer to being correct now. It actually pulls this thing together instead of a spider of energy. Now, the GFS must realize that this is going to dip/dig further south. The ridge that is showing on the map is not real.
Unless..where did we see this before where we had the lows in both the SE and SW with the ridge in the middle..seems like I saw this sometime when Jamie was still here. Can't remember.
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Scott,
The models are all over the place.
Gary
Posted by: Scott at December 15, 2006 4:53 PM
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Hello Mr. Lezak,
Is there a chance of seeing any meteors or northern light tonight, or has that ended.
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Ben,
There is still a chance tonight if these clouds move out.
Gary
Posted by: Ben Tracy at December 15, 2006 5:59 PM
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Gary,
Just a question off the top of my head-Do the solar storms have any effect on weather satellites?
Thanks, Lani
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Lani,
The solar flares do have an affect on the weather satellites. They cause blackouts and data delays.
Gary
Posted by: Lani at December 15, 2006 6:27 PM
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StormDog's Forecast (100% accuracy): INCREASING LIGHT TOWARDS MORNING WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS OF LIGHT TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 0 F TO 70F DURING THE PERIOD. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN, EXCEPT DURING ANY OVERCAST OR COMPLETELY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
Forget the models - they are **%%.
Dog
Posted by: StormDog at December 15, 2006 8:15 PM
*********************gary,
I was wondering if you could tell me the time frame for when the models update? And how is that storm looking?
Andy
Andy,
They update 4 times a day. They are fully available at 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM and 11 PM.
The storm for next week looks like it will track well to the north of KC. This means we hopefully will get 3-5 hours of rain showers on Wednesday.
Jeff
Posted by: Andy at December 15, 2006 8:54 PM
*******************Gary,
All I want for Christmas is snow or snow on the ground let's hope this storm materializes and does something wierd over kc
Jeremy,
All of our latest data is converging on a solution of taking next week's storm well to ur north. There are a couple of systems to watch for Chirstmas week. We can hope!
Jeff
Posted by: Jeremy McWhirt at December 15, 2006 9:53 PM
*******************Gary,
Your trees are already starting to come out? I read that in another blog. It was around 10F around a week ago. The models still do not look promising for arctic air because there are very few signs of any long lasting high pressure ridges in the Eastern Pacific. Overall, the Pacific Flow into Western Canada is flooding central Canada with warm air and keeping the arctic air even farther up to the north. If KCI does not receive snow by the end of this month then we are in some trouble this winter. Something has to change soon!
Devin
Devin,
I agree. Those of us who love weather are in pain!
Jeff Penner
Posted by: Devin at December 15, 2006 11:20 PM
*************So is snow completely out of the question for next week, or is it still a wait and see situation?
Marlina,
The chance of snow next week is zero based on everything we are seeing. All of our latest data, the GFS, European, Canadian and UKMET models are showing the storm tracking across South Dakota and Minnesota.
There are still 1-2 systems to watch in the 8-15 day period. However, right now, they look strange. It is frustrating.
Jeff Penner
Posted by: Marlina at December 15, 2006 11:33 PM
***************Does it still look like there is a chance of snow for us this week
Charles,
I am afraid the snow chance has disappeared. The storm is going too far north. There are some chances Christmas week.
Jeff Penner
Posted by: Charles at December 16, 2006 5:53 AM
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