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Lets hope that the northland gets something this time. Has there ever been a december with no snow at KCI?
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Charles,

Yes, and it was just two years ago. It was the only time in Kansas City recorded history when not even a trace of snow fell. Hopefully it won't happen again this year.

Gary

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Gary,

If the low were to pass over us and put us in the area to get snow how much could we expect? I know its nearly impossible to tell and if you're not ready to put any amount on it (I know how over excited people can get) I understand. Even if we do get snow will it be cold enough for it to stick around?

Thanks for keeping us informed. The shows that the entire team puts up are indeed informative and exciting. Keep up the good work!
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Shawn,

Thank you. It is too early to tell if it will even snow, so forecasting or even dreaming of accumulations is unrealistic at this point. This will be a very tricky and unusual storm as it moves by.

Gary

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Morning Gary, so we will get rain out of this system and maybe something different next week? Golly, that El Nino is on every meteorologists tongue except yours primarily. I know you have said you ignore what others say, However is the El Nino strenthening? I read the report from NOAA from December 7th on that subject. Would we have a better chance of rain in the spring? Thanks for your blogs and reports. Michael/Topeka
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Michael,

El Nino has strengthened a bit. But, I believe that it does influence the weather pattern, but it doesn't create it. So, we have a weather pattern that set up and is now being influenced by El Nino. What would this weather pattern be without an El Nino? I think it would be quite similar, but we may never know for sure.

Gary

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I know most people are thinking snow this time of year but I have to ask anyway. Spring is only a few months away, sort of, so I'll be the first to ask. What type of spring severe weather would you anticipate based on this year's cycle? Hopefully better than last year's storm season. Only two more days of school. Happy Holidays!
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Rod,

As we learn even more about this pattern we can start projecting with some accuracy into the spring. It almost has to be rather active, but let's see how we feel in about a month. Winter doesn't even begin until Thursday.

Gary

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I am speachless. I KNEW IT. To all with modelitis, try a shot of GRC. The models cannot support this type of pattern more than 60 hrs out. Watch the trends, trust the GRC, and forecast from the gut.

Finally....I got one right based on what I sensed!

I will look closer in the next run to get a sense of precip and the following storms....

Pretty exciting now.
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Scott,

But, if we were to use the GRC and then make no adjustments then we would know this Christmas storm would pass south of us. But, we also must keep in mind that there are always slight variations giving us some hope. This pattern is ALMOST so exciting.

Gary

PS>..Gary..when are the invites coming out? Time is nearing.

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Gary,

Bet your having fun with this storm! It looks to be interesting. You would not believe all the people running around here at UPS saying that there is a huge snowstorm coming, I just laugh and say- huge rainstorm maybe. It also looks alot more interesting now in the next couple weeks- Finally HUH!
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Brett,

The problem is that it has looked interesting all along, but then these storm systems, with one exception thus far, have not been very wintery.

Gary

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Gary-

Heard you on 810 WHB yesterday, and I couldn't agree with you more. But on to more pressing issues. I hope the snow moves in for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day even though I won't be here to see it. We'll be outside Huntington, WV on my wife's family's 600 acre farm. I'm trying to figure what the weather will be like out there and didn't know if you had any thoughts or any good websites that you trust that I could look at to get a reliable forecast. I know it's not your focus but I trust your weather more than anyone else's.

Thanks for any help and I hope KC gets a white Christmas.
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Wade,

It is looking like Huntington will be in the 40s Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with maybe a few showers around. It should be in the 50s Friday and Saturday.

The latest data is NOT good for any snow here.

Gary

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Ok...in taking a closer look. Looks like this first shot will be mainly rain, with just a hair of a shot for flurries on the back end..but still will be too far north to catch the top of the storm. I don't expect it to dig to much further south. [Already got it to dig from ND down to KS!] Looking at the layer temps etc, I am actually more encouraged for the following storm. I believe the initial models of it digging into S Texas is crazy. I am thinking it will take about the same path as this first one, but about 100 miles or so futher south, which should put us into the snow. After this first one rolls through, it will drag the cold air behind it. This will help prep the atmosphere where the next vort will not have to bring its own cold air. Looking at the SPC SREF, I can see at the end of the frame where the ULL may form..and it seems favorable to me. [N.AZ] Still too far out to know for sure on how much snow for Christmas timeframe, but I like that potential far more than this one this week. Either way, we will get some much needed precip.

Gary, you may as well update your white Christmas to 30% now. The Christmas storm is much like the previous one we saw 40 days back, but this time with the stronger jet, I think it will track further north than the one in Nov. Also, I like the trend and per the GRC, this should be an exciting part of the cycle. One thing I have noticed about the GRC, and as it initially related to the SMC, there are two exciting parts of the GRC...seperated by a mild and dry week-10 days.
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Scott,

The GRC is more complex than your simplification. Anyway, the latest GFS doesn't get that northern wave into this trough and as a result the chance of a white Christmas may be near zero.

This storm approaching us now was forecast to dive into south Texas a few days ago, so we will see. It will change again. The bottom line........this weather pattern is very unique and still close to being exciting, but something is still missing.

Gary

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Hello Gary,
I was wondering what your gut feeling is for Thursday night, do you think will(the metro) see snow? And I don't understand as cold as it's been, that were gonna have rain tomorrow and not frozen precip. I don't understand.
Thank You for your time!
Anna
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Anna,

It hasn't been cold lately and there is no cold air for this storm to tap and pull into it. Plus whenever a storm tracks to your west warmer air gets pulled in.

Anyway, my gut feeling is that any chance of snow will be near the Iowa border on Thursday night.

Gary

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Gary, please forgive for oversimplying the GRC. I subscribe to KISS philosophy for most things, so with that, I focus mainly on the trends, and less on the features of the GRC, as those seem to be changing a bit more than my operational understanding. El Nino seems to mess with that more than the trend of the storms that are cycling.

But I digress...I just have found many features in the GRC as it pertains more to the cycle itself than the features that define the cycle.
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Scott,

Oh, don't worry at all about it. This is a weather pattern that is so unique. This is one of the main points in my theory. EVERY YEAR IS UNIQUE. I know you will agree that this weather pattern has never happened before. I KNOW FOR SURE! And, it is so close to being exciting it is driving me a bit nuts. I think I just know too much. If I hadn't discovered this my theory then I could relax and just hope that January will be different.

Gary

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Gary, the storms almost always seem to come out further south than what is predicted. If the same holds true with this storm, would our chances of snow go up or would we be looking more at freezing rain? Mark
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Mark,

This is not a typical storm as it is becoming vertically stacked. So, the track will still be important but once the surface low and upper level low are aligned then the storm will move very slowly and lose some of the typical precipitation patterns. This will make things a bit tricky. This is why we call these systems "cut off low, weatherman's woe".

Gary

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Gary,
Now that new data has come into the weather center, how are things looking for the snow on Christmas Eve or day? I hope things are looking up for us here in Kansas City! It would be really nice to see a white Christmas for a change! Also, about how much rain can we expect for the Lee's Summit area tomorrow? Thanks and have a wonderful and fun day!

Jacob Honeycutt
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Jacob,

The latest data is not very good for snow. If it looked great for snow it would probably change, so maybe it will change back and look more favorable by tomorrow.

Gary

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Gary im not trying to argue with you but what is a normal winter pattern. every storm is as you say strange, what is normal???????????? Thanks keep up the good work. Michael in DeKalb
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Michael,

Good point. I will have to stop saying "strange" etc.....I just wish we were near the Colorado/Kansas border. This is where the weather is truly exciting.

Gary

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What do the new models show in relation to snow in KC?
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Charles,

The storm is a bit further south on the afternoon run. Let's see how this evenings models look.

Gary

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Gary:

I just have to say that weather is indeed fascinating!!! Just look 400 miles to our west-wow!!! I really wish I could have figured out math!!!! Hopefully, it does look very good, we still get the rain progged by the models-I think we are in good shape there!! I just had to say how fascinating this storm is and just watching it on satelite is a real treat indeed!! Have a great night

PS: I'm still holding out hope for the Sunday/Monday event-I know it looks horrible now, but for the life of me, I can't figure out why the models are suppressing things so much in the last two runs (knowing full well there might not even be a storm etc etc.) Just based on the out put as is, why is it so suppressed?? Grasping at straws in Lawrence and waiting for a sound I have only heard three times in the past 3 months: rain on the roof tops!!!!
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Bill,

This is the amazing thing. We are so close to having such an exciting pattern, but in the end we could get almost nothing. It is driving me crazy. But, perhaps in the end one or two of these storm systems will hit us.

I am sticking with my slight chance for Sunday and Monday. This storm coming our way now was forecast to go across south Texas a few days ago. So, there is hope.

Gary

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If you think there will be snow on Thursday, please hold it off until after 3:30pm when my plane lands coming back from the east coast!!! As a matter of fact, keep the dry slot around until then too :-)

Then you can let the heavens open up and it can rain or snow or sleet!!!

Anyway - you have looked at all the models and know your theory and the pattern - what does your gut tell you about Sunday night into Monday?

Thanks
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Leonard,

It will not snow on Thursday, but there is a chance of a mixture Thursday night.

I have no feeling on Sunday or Monday, and this is why I keep the slight chance in there despite the computers taking it out. I will take it out if this trend continues, but a lot can happen in 5 days.

Gary
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Dig dig dig...still digging. The 00z brings it even further south in my opinion. Looks like the stacking really solidifies right over E. Kansas.

One thing strange to me. Look at the power of these Pac storms. I am seeing 940mb readings! That would normally be a Cat 1/Cat 2 or weak Cat 3 hurricane pressure. The Pac is going nuts right now.
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Scott,

Or wobble, wobble, wobble. This is a crazy storm system.

Gary

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Gary:

Just looked at the 0z NAM: Wow-takes the upper low just south of KC-wonder if it is onto something, or is just a blip. Of course, as you have said, as this is cut off, it could wobble and spin anywhere!! Just an interesting run and just something to add a little spice!!!!!
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Bill,

The NAM has not done well this year. So, let's see what the GFS does.

Gary

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Gary I missed your forecast-sorry- but what the chance of a White Christmas?
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Alden,

It is fading fast.

Gary

Gary:

Can you tell my kids are content at the moment!! Just checked the NAM soundings and they don't look good-it may be a more south track, but it does not look to have the cold air close to it-interesting nonetheless!!

The thing I like about the next week is that there are actually 3 decent storms progged to come across the the conus-could be abberitions but how long has it been since we have seen 3 possible storms within 10 days of each other-at least it looks more active!!!

Thanks for listening!!! Good luck with this low-fascinating storm-awesome to watch on satelite and radar-tons of moisture!! I see rain a commin!!! Yippeee!!!

At least we will still have a nice rainstorm out of this,wondering if we might get a BRIEF period of sleet at the onset,(dewpoints around 20 or so). As for snow, well im not going to think about the elusive white stuff until AFTER tomorrow and pretend its spring time with a nice rainstorm heading our way.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!