Regarding the temps, I see the 38 degrees on the 500 GFS vort, but see 534/26 degrees on the NAM MSLP. Dunno if we can get enough of the wrap around on the backside for any of this to be worth while. I still think flurries at best.

Even the poor SPC SREF has troubles showing any signficant snow. Nice rain, but little if any snow.

As far as the Christmas storm...the models are choking on it. Too wierd...I don't buy it the way its shown. But....the CMC isn't alone now...NOGAPS has it too...

We will see.

Gary

The 00Z NAM seems to continue the trend of pushing the upper level storm furter south. Seems as though it would push some decent snow near by into Fri. Morn. Don't we have a chance for some accumulating snow if this trend continues? And do you believe
it will continue trending that way?

Matt Maisch.

The NAM seems to give us some snow Thursday, .25" with temps that appear cold enough. Do you see this?

David

Gary,
The rain will be welcomed, we need it. I would rather have been in the snow storm though. It is so interesting to look at the long range weather models. Last week we were worried about the storm going to far south, now the storm is too far north. funny.... have a great evening.

*****************
Good synopsis on things Gary. Looks like we are quite cold aloft and may wet bulb down to get some sticky snow late Thursday night.

Like the prospects for a good snow in the first week of the new year as well. Hopefully we can get some deep cold air in place ahead of a better trajectory Pacific storm.
---------------
Brian,

I am expecting the best opportunity for snow close to the 10th of January.

Gary

**************
Gary, you remind me a lot of the Steve Irwin, the croc guy. So passionate about weather. That's awesome. I don't think you could bottle up your passion, you'd bust.. :) I agree with you about not ever counting any options out, even on this storm when you first talked about it took a southern track, then a very northern track that left us completely dry for the most part, now is gonna dump around an inch of rain tomorrow.. I think the other guys are just trying to do their best to keep up with your fast growing audience.
---------------------
Dave,

Wow, thank you! NBC Action News is doing better and better. Our audience is growing and more people are depending on our weather accuracy. I feel the pressure and I can't stand it when we make a mistake.

Anyway, let's enjoy this storm. It should be a nice rain on Wednesday. I am going to bed now.

Gary

It figures, I just washed my car on Monday.

I noticed that the low over Colorado is apparently strong enough to affect the jet stream significantly. It's showing a sizable speed increase over the Texas Panhandle running almost due north into Kansas and Nebraska. Some forecasters are calling for heavy snow in those parts, but I'm wondering if that strong southerly airflow might warm things up a bit more and turn it to rain instead.

As for our area, it looks like a cold rain. I'd be surprised by anything frozen at all, but then again, this is the Midwest. I'll give the frozen stuff about a 5% chance. :)

*************
Gary,

I just wanted to know that IF the storm did go farther south would we see SNOW? some of the models have it going farther south than before. Do you see this to?

Andy
-------------
Andy,

It may be tough for snow even with it going further south. The temperatures may be too warm.

Gary

***************
Gary,
A few questions here. I think we all know you are passionate about what you do. It's infectious and also lets us know we're not watching a "weatherman", somebody reading off of the charts. What was it that made you choose this career route? What is your favorite thing about forecasting weather in the KC region? What do you find the most difficult part of forecasting here?

Thanks for doing a great job and Happy Holidays to you, the staff, and all of your families!
-----------------------
Matt,

Thank you for the kind comments this morning. Weather has been my passion since I had my first thoughts. I knew I wanted to tell everyone about the weather by the time I was 5 or 6 years old, but I never thought I would be on television as I had fears of being in front of a camera or even talking in front of a group of people. I got over those fears and started my career working with one of the best, Gary England, in Oklahoma City in 1985.

My favorite thing to forecast is snow. It is also the most challenging as the viewers demand to know exactly how much. If I had to predict the exact amount of rain today and then I was off by just a few tenths of an inch it won't matter, but if it were snow I would be blasted. You almost have to get it exactly right, and even when you get the snow forecast right some people bring up someone elses forecast and think that it was mine. So, snow forecasting is the most fun and also the most challenging, although tornado situations are by far the most stressful. With tornado situations I catch myself doing something I have found out you can't do. I am so precise on my forecasts, but when there is a tornado you MUST NEVER say that it looks like the threat has passed until that thunderstorm is a few miles away.

Gary

*************
Gary:

Good Morning!!! What is that I hear on my roof and running down my street??? I believe my grandparents called it rain!!!! As Doc said in the movie Cars: Sweet Music-Sweet, Sweet Music!! Much needed rain fall comming-may get 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain-it will help for sure!!!! I meant to blog you last night when the 0z GFS came out and still kept the low North of us (I didn't want you to think I was "us in the sweet spot" poster!!)-my kids being content turned into the winter of discontent!! I will enjoy this rainy day for sure!! (Realizing full well that this type of situation happens quite regularly here-not every storm gives us snow here in the winter!!!! Never has, never will)

I am still holding out hope for Sunday/Monday-IMHO (very humble indeed!!!) the most important factor is that there is still a storm. I just can't buy it going that far South as there does not seem to be a reason for it to. I really think that by the 12Z suites on Friday we will begin to see a northward trend-if not, then time to realize the fish aren't biting in that spot-but I will sure try to find out why it goes that far south (i.e why the fish aren't biting there) just for educational purposes!! Have a great day and as always, thanks for the responses!!!
----------------
Bill,

Yes! It is raining. And, we could get nearly all of December's average precipitation today. We average around 1.6 inches so let's see how much ends of falling. Right now I am thinking many spots will get over one inch.

There is a completely different solution now for the Christmas Day trough. The latest data dives a storm right over us on Sunday night. The GFS says it will go by dry, but let's watch it closely. Then, we will keep our eyes out for the cold part of this years pattern by around the second week of January.

Gary

*****************
Gary:

Just me again-quite in my house and don't feel like grading Comp. Govt. finals!!! Just checked and Denver has gone over to a Blizzard Warning through tomorrow afternoon-what an awesome storm!!!! Foothills could get 3-5 feet!! From my limited knowledge, this seems like the perfect set up for them-a stalled ULL giving an upslope affect-just wow!!! I'm happy for Western Kansas and Eastern Colorado as they really need the moisture!! I hope people don't think this storm was a bust-it is very dangerous storm for alot of people!!

By the way, I asked the NWS out of Topeka this but they haven't had a chance to get back to me-do you know when the last time the NWS issued a blizzard warning for this area-I know we have had blizzards here in the past and it has def. been decades since we've had one, it just would be interesting to know when the last one was. Have a great day-I still hear the pitter patter!!!!
----------------
Bill,

I-70 will likely get shut down.

Gary

************
Good morning Gary, Yes, it is raining here in Topeka. It will be interesting to see how much we get. We are over 4 inches behind! Do you see any Artic Air in the near future let's say 10 days out? Thanks for the weather forecasting. michael/Topeka
----------------
Michael,

I do see some Arctic air, but more based on my theory since it is not showing up yet on the models. I will blog about the potential later today as I see a big warm up before that happens anyway.

Gary

****************
Here in Platte City and there is a little bit of sleet in the air the temp is 33 and 34 approx. When would you say that the chance of any sleet in the area is gone for the day?
--------------
Charles,

The sleet potential should be gone within the hour up north. There is just too much warm air pumping in.

Gary

*****************
Gary,

You said a couple of days ago you expected us to get dry slotted today. At what point do you expect for this to happen? Also, as the storm tracks through tomorrow night are we going to be in the comma head or just the trailing edge of the storm? Thanks.
---------------------------
Shawn,

This storm is going to be different than most when the upper low comes near by on Friday morning. So, I just am not sure what to expect. But, we won't get much of anything if the low tracks north of us which it likely will.

We will be dry slotted by midnight.

Gary

*******************
I am just happy to see some kind of precip falling from the sky. Yes I would have been much happier if it were snow, but my grass is disagreeing with me. If your interested, last night about 2:30 am I was awaken by the dog barking to thunder!! Now there is a sound I have not heard in a while.
----------------------
Keri,

It is so nice to hear how we enjoy these weather events in our own ways. I didn't know about the thunder. Thanks.

Gary

*************
Just got up and the rain is here in St. Joe, now I guess it's time to enjoy and see how much we get!
Nick(In wet) St. Joe!
------------------
Nick,

There will be more bands of rain until around midnight or so.

Gary