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Gary,

Good morning! Has your percentage for a white Christmas risen above 13% yet? I haven't been able to see you on tv since you last predicted a 13% chance for a white Christmas. Hopefully if that next storm forms per your cycle in early January it will go a little further north. Hopefully!
Have a great day!
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Brett,

I went up to 16% last night, but that is still fairly low. Let's see how it looks later today.

Gary

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Gary, I hate the models. Ok..that is out of my system. Looking at the 21st, is it possible that the strong jet/trough in the NW Pac could push and dissolve the ridge more than what is shown diving this thing a bit south? Dunno..don't remember seeing a vort in this area this year...still hard to believe.
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Scott,

The models are always having troubles. But, now that we know the pattern even better we can use them to our advantage. Last week was ridiculous. And, this storm is sort of caught as an "out of the box" storm that doesn't want to be there.

Next weeks storm is right on schedule. It will be very sad if it produces snow across Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern Missouri and we are cloudy here. Something slightly different always happens. So, let's hope something more exciting happens on Sunday and Monday.

Gary

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Gary,
So overall this is a very warm pattern? It seems like the Pacific Jet Stream continues to dominate the pattern keeeping the arctic air well to the north. Is there any chance we will get some arctic air soon, and will KCI ever get more snow this winter? The models have not been kind to us.
Devin
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Devin,

This pattern is so close to being exciting, and yet it leaves us frustrated.

The one part of the pattern that already produced the cold and storm should return by the first or second week of January.

Gary

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Gary,

A chance of any snow anywhere near Christmas is better than none. If it pans out to be none, then it is what we are used to. But to dream.................

Hey you take care and get some rest.you and your team have a great holiday! Tell Bret to post some :-)
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Leonard,

Thanks,

Brett gets swamped in the morning, but we will try to get him to blog more next year.

Gary

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So Gary it sounds to me from your message today, it looks pretty bleak for a strong and active winter. I am usually an optimist but with the winters we have had in Northeast Kansas over the past 10 years (blah), at this point from the other long rangers and meteorologists I follow it doesn't look good for much snow this year. However, you are excellent in your forecasting and I will continue to hope that the pattern changes slightly in our favor. Take care, Michael/Topeka
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Michael,

Whether those other forecasts will be right or wrong for whatever reason doesn't bother me. I know that we are cycling through this weather pattern and it just doesn't want to produce. But, let's see if there are any interesting twists and surprises as we go into next year. There may be. The same pattern can produce very different results each time through the cycle. We just need to get some cold air down here again.

Gary

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What will be happening in Western Kansas and Eastern Colorado along I-70 Tuesday night and Wednesday? Are they expecting much snow and windy conditions?

Thanks!
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Peggy,

There could be a significant snowstorm out there. Lets see how it looks on Tuesday.

Gary

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Okay - this is from left field, I'm sure... I've had headaches for the last 3 days that I'm sure are related to the changes in the weather. Will we have some stabilization anytime soon in the barometric pressure? Otherwise, perhaps I can rent my sinuses out as a barometer?

Thanks!
Debi
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Debi,

There have been some pressure changes but maybe your sensing the storm heading our way.

Gary

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What do you think of the Christmas forecast I just looked at the models and they are showing a good chance when will you put snow in the forecast?
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Charles,

I am convinced there will be a storm, but will it be too far south? We are putting in the chance but keeping it slight until we get a bit closer.

Gary

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Gary:

I have a question-I know you are incredibly busy and I am not trying to press you at all. I have some time today and was just looking at the 12Z Euro and GFS (operational on both) and I'm really not sure why each takes the storm Sunday/Monday so far South-it looks like the ridge in the SE would bumb that storm further North-would it be beacuse of the storm Wed. kind of closes off and sets up around the Lakes for a time and "suppresses" the pattern?

To be sure, these runs will look totally different tomorrow and the next day etc. and I'm not even sure if there is a 100% gaurantee on how Wednesday will turn out (I pray, pray, that the GFS qpf pans out even if it is rain!!)but I'm just looking at what they are showing on this individual run and just trying to learn some things. It sems to me that this storm (the Sunday/Monday) would head further North than what the models show today based on the ridge in the SE/Atlantic as well as what the tracks of the past storms have done. Thanks in advance from a "history" teacher who for some reason thinks he can read a model output!!!!
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Bill,

We can hope that it moves further north, but just like this storm heading our way now....it hasn't formed yet. So, let's see what happens.

Gary

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I see you have snow for next sunday into monday does that look like it could be a big snow event and will the heavier snow be south of the metro? where did the storm go during the last cycle.
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Daniel,

This storm was strong and went well south of us in November. So, let's hope we get a further north twist this time.

Gary

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Just saw the forecaste update. 20% chance of a White Christmas now? I'll take it.

I was wondering why the next storm seems to become moisture starved as it moves out into the plains. Is it not tapping into Gulf Moisture? Or am I reading the models wrong?

BTW - the last few runs seem to be trending South...not that we'll get hit, but it is interesting.
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Snowlover,

Isn't it amazing. We need the first storm to track further south and we need the second storm to track further north. And, there is nothing we can do about it. This is why it is so frustrating. But, maybe something exciting will still happen.

Gary

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Gary,
I live downtown and we have had some snow just not much. Whether it snows or not we have to remember that winter hasn't started yet. I do find one thing disturbing there are dandolions growing in the park, eeek.
Have a great day and hopefully that small snow chance pans out.
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Shannon,

Yes, you are right. Winter begins on Wednesday. The pattern is active for the next three weeks. One of these storms just has to get us.

Gary

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Gary,

I really miss your weather forecast on TV. Your station is no longer available on Dish Network in my area as of December 1st.

I live in NC Kansas. We are extremely dry this fall. NOAA is forecasting a good chance of precipitation on Tuesday Night - Wednesday Night. Do you agree with NOAA's forecast for NC Kansas? We could use the precipitation.

I'm really interested in your weather pattern theory. I work in the Agricultural Industry...so the weather plays a major role in our success. I am curious if you think we will continue to have a hot/dry growing season like this past summer or will we return to a more normal weather pattern with average rainfall & temperatures.
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Reed,

I think it could be wetter than average this spring. And, this storm is very likely going to bring you some nice precipitation totals. Let us know how much you get.

Gary

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Hello Gary,
I was wondering any snow or what about Freezing rain or sleet with this mid-week storm? Thank you,
Anne
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Anne,

There could be a brief period of sleet if the precipitation moves in Tuesday, but then it is all rain on Wednesday.

Gary