************
Gary.

What order would you place the models from least reliable to most on average? Also what's your favorite place to get the Euro and the Canadian model info?

Matt Maisch
--------------------------
Matt,

GFS #1, ECMWF #2, NAM #3, UKMET #4, Canadian model #5, NGM last.

I don't have the sites on the top of my head. Maybe another blogger can post them, or I will try later.

Gary

**********
Lets hope for a storm next week maybe 5-8 in. up north in the northland.
----------------
Charles,

We'll see?

Gary

*****************
Gary, what are the chances of seeing any auroral activity tonight? There are major flares heading are way as we speak.
----------------
Mike,

Glen in Trenton, Missouri just saw the northern lights.

Gary

**************
Gary, It's looking like whatever we get will either go south or won't happen. I see the storm there on the NAM, but not for us.
Gary
---------------
Gary,

Well, let's see what we think in a couple of days. Don't count it out yet.

Gary

****************
Gary,
The 18Z GFS model does not show much in the way of QPF with next weeks storm, with the moisture staying just off to the southeast. The EMCWF and UKMET could be a little closer to being accurate for next week. The GFS has been showing a lot of inconsistency lately. However, the Pacific Flow is still strong, and I am wondering when we will ever be able to tap arctic air. Will we have to wait until January to see any arctic air again?
Devin
---------------------------
Devin,

First of all lets make this point, the ECMWF and UKMET have been flip flopping as much as the GFS. Yesterday both of those models did what today's GFS did and had almost no storm at all or it going way south. Today, the ECMWF says we will have a mammoth storm, like yesterday's GFS. And, now the GFS is somewhere in the middle. So, it is every model doing this, not just the GFS.

It will be no surprise if this storm comes together and has us right on the northern edge. This would fit this years pattern. We can hope for something a bit better than this.

Gary

***********
At this point is it looking like south of KC will get more precip and will it all be rain.
-------------------------
Daniel,

No, and it is too early. At this point it looks like snow and mainly south. But, it is not even close to being reliable.

Gary

*****************
Okay wait a minute. Does this storm fit the GRC or not? If the GRC says it shouldn't happen, then let's go with that.
------------------
Snowlover,

This storm fits the GRC. The part that didn't fit was the big upper low forecasted to form near Southern California. What fits is a trough moving through the west then strengthening over the southern plains. The recent solutions are closer in line with what has been happening. I don't just make this up.

Gary

*************
What are the chances of us in Platte City to see the northern lights.
---------------------------------
Charles,

Hopefully these clouds will clear and then we just have to look up and north.

Gary

********************
GFS is good at long ranges for trends...weak/wishy-washy at mid ranges...and a good short range forecast model. Watching it trying to sort out the very active Pacific storm and strong jets leads me to believe that we may have something in store for Christmas Day. Maybe not the kickin winter storm the GFS showed earlier in the 300+ hrs range, but still enough support is there for some suggestion of snow and a White Christmas. The polar connection and the forecast of a digging system should trend to a more snowy and colder setup, especially with northeast winds setting up. It will be interesting to watch for sure Gary.
--------------------
Brian,

Good points! There is a very good trend on the models. I think there will be storm systems near by in the next two weeks. But, I don't want them just near by.

Gary

*****************
We lost all AU chances tonight.. we went cloudy, but before we went cloudy there was a bright green glow in the north... very intense green.. maybe the clouds will breakup.

now if only i can figure out how to use my cam i would have gotton pix
-----------------
Glen,

Practice with the camera. Thanks for the reports tonight, I used them on the newscasts!

Gary

************
Hi Gary,
We were just coming home from dinner and looking north from Basehor, KS we would see the Northern Lights! It was beautiful. I wasn't sure what it was, so I checked your blog. We're going back out now to check it out again! How awesome!
--------------------
Kelly,

It may be too cloudy for the next few hours.

Gary

************
Radar shows some showers sliding south-east tonight. Is that precip making it to the ground?
--------------------
Dave,

So far it is all aloft. A sprinkle could make it to the ground in the next two hours, but that's it.

Gary

***********
What do the latest models show for next week?
----------------
There is a trend towards more of a storm.

Gary

******************
Gary, about your model rankings ... did you list them from most to least reliable? When I read them in response to the original question it looks like you are saying the NGM is the most reliable. Is that what you mean?

Really enjoy the blog - no matter what happens, it's a lot of fun! Thanks!
------------------------
Rick,

The NGM is the least reliable. I listed them from best to least (my opinion).

*************
I'm excited that snow is at least back in the forecast! Why do the models sometimes waver back and forth between predicting and not predicting a storm? I'm also really crossing my fingers that these clouds will clear so I can try to see the Northern Lights.
---------------
Marlina,

I didn't see the northern lights. But, many people did yesterday evening. Maybe they will be visible tonight.

The weather is always changing. There wouldn't be as much change from day to day with these storm systems if they would just act normal. But they are not this year.

Gary

**************
Yeah I second that but heading to Des Moines for Christmas so should be pretty much deeper in cold air up there. Waiting for the 00z model update to see if it has a clue or was still in spaz mode.
---------------------
Brian,

Des Moines seems to have a lower chance of a white Christmas than Kansas City. This weather pattern is very strange.

Gary

****************
Hey Gary, just thought I would let you know that I indeed did witness the Northern Lights tonight. I was sitting on the south side of Clinton Lake dam in Lawrence. I took a bunch of photos and here is a link to one that I posted.

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a331/weathernut07/Nature%20Shots/IMG_1420.jpg
------------
Mike,

Thanks, I will take a look at them later.

Gary

******************
I hope that this storm moves far enough north to bring snow to Desoto,Ks.I lived in wisconsin in 89 and we had a snowstorm that year that produced 75 mph winds and 2 feet of snow
------------------
Rodney,

This is a strange storm for next week. We'll see. Wow, 2 feet of snow, now that is a lot of snow.

Gary

*********
When the latest models come out will you be updating the blog or will you wait until tomorrow?
---------------------
Daniel,

I will blog very soon. I just don't have anything new to add to this weird storm for next week yet.

Gary

************************
I'm really not feelling good about this "patterns" set up for storms, I have seen too many "comma heads" go to the south of Saint Joe this fall and the comma heads are usually the snow makers, I feel that we are unforntunately on the southern extent of Omaha's and Des Moines Pattern and south K.C. is on the northern extent of "Southern Missouri's weather pattern, In terms of snow at least which probably means that we have to get "lucky" with a storm that shoulden't happen but does or for something weird to happen in March when spring moisture starts to return( I know differnt revolutions of the cycle can produce different results, but...)
Nick in (brown) St. Joe.
----------------------
Nick,

I can feel your frustration. If we don't get much between now and the end of the year it will tell us even more. This is really becoming amazing for your area and northward.

Gary

****************
Gary,

I am Northern Michigan on business, and have been amazed how lit up the northern sky has been. I was thinking it was the Aurora Borealis, but my inner logic made me conclude it was lights from a city or something. After reading your blog, I am now convinced that it was the Aurora Borealis. It is really impressive, I had never seen it before.

I will be back in town and hoping for snow soon. Keep up the great work!

Matt
---------------------
Matt,

Thanks for the report from Michigan. I still have never seen the northern lights. Mayb tonight!

Gary

**********
A couple of days ago you were on fantasy island. Yesterday you beat yourself up for not sticking to your weather theory and pattern. Now the latest post says you are sticking to the models and flowing with them saying the heavens will open up one day and then closed tight the next and now maybe somewhere in the middle.

I know you have to rely a lot on the model runs, but what about your weather theory and pattern? What does it say for next week? Doesn't it trend to the dryer side of the pattern for next week? Is your theory correct or will next week be contrary to it?
-------------------------
Leonard,

These are very valid questions! The part of the weather pattern we are in right now, according to my theory, is somewhat active. I thought we could have a few storm systems like the one next week.

The part that didn't fit with the theory was a continuation of higher amplitude up and down flow. So, when this storm was forecasting a very large and more full latitude storm and trough it didn't quite fit. Now, it is fitting the pattern better as it blasts the Pacific northwest, just gives southern California a glancing blow and then goes through a major transition as it moves into the plains.

I would have to show you how it fits, but it does. The solution from a few days ago didn't quite fit.

Gary

*****************
Gary:

Good Morning!!!! Yes, my finals are now complete-now I just need for students to take them!!!!
Still not sure what to make of next week. It looks like the models are comming to a concensus that there will be a storm of some fashion next week but the details are still far from certain-the 0z Euro today brings a pretty good 500 vort. close to us-it seems both GFS and EURO want to bring the whole thing out in one storm instead of smaller pieces-one thing looks to be certain-we will return to a more normal temp. regime through Christmas-I think Lawrence's average is still around 43 (we are about 1-2 degrees warmer than KC on average) and that looks to be about where we will be-can't complain there!!!
I have always liked your theory on cycles and have been using it since I read about it-it is interesting that if you look at the indicees (PNA, AO, and EPO-which to me are the three main ones for us) you can see the cycle. I have not had a chance to look at past years or look at 500 charts for sensible weather, but for the past 3 months you can see the cycle-the AO and EPO have all been quite high mid month with drops by the end of the month-and when have our biggest changes been: end of the month-same thing looks to be happening again by the trends-awesome stuff for sure!!! Have you thought about publishing a paper on this idea? If not, you really should as it could really help in long range forecasting. I know it is not perfect-what is in weather??lol-but imho, it is a great theory that would make a heck of an article in a journal of meteorology!!!
Oh-I have been meaning to tell you-your theory and winter forecast got some good play on a major weather board: Easternuswx-it is a huge message form with several professional mets as well as people from Europe and Asia. Your theory got about 3 pages of discussion-I did chime in and say that the theroy has paid off very well the past years etc. etc. I have been meaning to tell you that!!!
Whatever happens in the next week-(and I sure wish we could get some moisture area wide as I think this drought is really effecting sensible weather (I have another idea about our mild stretches in relation to the drought in the SW but that is for another time-I hear you groan!!!) it looks to at least get back to more normal temps.!!

Have a great day and again thanks so much for taking the time to share and read by ramblings!!!
------------------
Bill,

I had never really thought what it is like to grade finals. Taking a final is stressful, but grading each one individually must be tough. This is why many teachers and professors go the multiple choice route.

I thought my theory would get some play, but I had no idea that it was being discussed out there. This is why I take our blog so seriously. There are people reading it from all over the world I am sure. I did a presentation at the AMS broadcast and weather & forecasting conference a year and a half ago on the theory. But, to write a paper and do the correct amount of research, learning even more about the ocean oscillations and anamolies, I would need to take a few months off. And, in my business this is impossible. I would need some grad student in math and meteorology to help in some graphing and analysis. I will have to see what happens in this next year and set some goals.

I think overall the pattern is cycling, but my initial forecast and guess for what would happen this winter may have been quite a bit off in some areas. But, we must be patient. There are some El Nino influences showing up, but I still say it has just an influence and it doesn't create the pattern that is going on right now.

For this next storm there isn't much of a kicker. So, this means this closing off low will have a mind of its own for a while. Before we gain any confidence in what it may or may not do we must see where it forms. It is always amazing how I and others get into the trap of predicting this type of storm way too far ahead of time. Since the storm isn't even there yet we must wait. By Saturday as it develops we can then see how much energy gets into it and get a better clue as to what may happen.

And, Bill, one of the more interesting things that no one ever talks about is the fact that the weather pattern is changing every day. So, the storm that is forecast to develop Saturday will be influenced by the entire weather pattern that will be in play Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. By next Wednesday the pattern WILL look different and the storm will have a different look to it by then. Does this make any sense?

Gary

************
Gary:

Thanks for the response!!! True, it would take a tremendous amount of work to publish your ideas-if you do ever get the time, it would be awesome if you could do it-I think you deserve it!!!!!

What you say about the conditions makes perfect sense-the atmosphere is very chaotic and can change on a sliver. The models can only produce solutions based on the data fed into them at the time of the run-that data changes each run-only in the most rare patterns (well, esp. here) and in a season like summer does the pattern have enough continuity to have a forecast with some certainty 6-7 days in advance. Like you said, this sytem has even yet to come on shore-until it does, the data fed into the models is weak at best. I do think the chillier temps. have a pretty good shot at verifying due to the indicces and the fact that it is cooling off in the Dakotas; But even then, it is a 50-50 shot-two weeks ago, the models never really picked up on how far south the cold air would move Sunday into Monday. Again, I really feel for you and others in your profession-everyone wants an accurate 7 day forecast and it is just nearly impossible to do that on a consistent basis due to the cahos of the atmosphere-esp. here and in a season like winter where you have a battle between chinook winds, a sw flow from the desert, moist flow from the gulf and colder air from the North-not to mention all the upper level dynamics lapse rates etc etc....it is mind boggeling if you really think about it. But again, and I'm not just saying this, you do an excellent job of it-I love your excitement because in the end, weather is exciting-we can't control it and it like a flock of birds just getting up: it goes everywhere-the only problem, it doesn't usually from a V-it stays cahotic!!!! Time as always, will tell about next week. I am getting concerned about our lack of moisture area wide (some places have done well others..) and really think it does play a role in our sensible weather (I would like to see how the long term SW droughts in the past affected our weather patterns here-would be interesting to see if there is a correlation or not) if we don't get some solid moisture, imho, next summer will rival 1936!!!

Again, thanks for the response-sorry I have written so much and I don't expect you to place this in the blog due to the length, but I just really enjoy talking with you even though my met. knowledge is slim at best!! Have a great day and please, keep up the excellent work!!!! Your passion and excitement are contagious!!!!
-------------------
Bill,

To hear my passion and excitement is contagious makes me happy. Because I love weather so much, and I don't hold anything back. You can tell exactly how I am feeling each day. And, there is no difference between our blog and what I say on television. I don't just throw something out there in the blog that I won't talk about on television as well.

I just don't agree with you on the drought affecting the sensible weather we experience. If a wet weather pattern sets up it won't be stopped by the fact it is so dry out there. It just won't. So, I disagree with you on this point.

Have a great day!

Gary

****************
Good morning, Gary. Just wanted to drop in and get my daily dose of the blog. Keep up the great work. Thanks again for your dedication to keeping the blog updated and responding to all the bloggers! Crossing my fingers for more snow next week! :)
-------------------------
Christi,

Keep those fingers crossed. The chance is slim but it is there.

Gary

*********************
Gary,
I have to disagree to some extent that ground moisture doesn't affect sensible weather. As an example, in the summer, thunderstorms tend to form more frequently in the Ozarks due to the low level moisture that may be present due to aspiration. Also, during cold events, if sublimation is occuring from ground ice and snow, the lower atmosphere has more moisture and precipitation will have an easier time making it to the ground. I do agree, that over the medium term when a wet or dry pattern sets up, ground conditions will not greatly influence the pattern. long term may be another story. It seems that over the last 5 or 10 years we have had many cycling medium length wet and dry periods. I believe that this pattern is changing the soils in Kansas and Missouri and how they are able to absorb and aspirate moisture. It is almost as if we are becoming more "desert like". We will get 2 or 3 months of normal or above normal precip(monsoon?) which doesn't completely soak in because of the short duration and intensity of the rainfall. We will then get a 2 to 4 month dry period where the moisture that did get into the very top layers of soil is "sucked" out. This pattern seems very different from what we had in the 80's and early 90's. Back then it seemed we would have extended wet periods that would soak the soil through all layers('93 is an example) and also we would get extended droughts. This second scenario seems like the more normal pattern for KC. The recent pattern over the last decade almost seems like the climate is shifting and doesn't know what to do. Could it be global warming creating this skitzo pattern? I don't know, but something is definitely going on.
--------------------------
Jim,

I understand what you are saying. I just don't believe what is going on in the upper levels of the atmosphere ends up being influenced by the ground conditions that much. If we end up with a storm track through the southwest into the plains then we will have a wet year. It doesn't appear we have a pattern like this again. It is more coincidence than anything else in my opinion. Global warming may be impacting these weather patterns but unfortunately there is no way to know for sure until years go by.

Gary

***************************
Are we going to be able to see the northern lights Friday night or will be it be too cloudy?
---------------------
Karen,

There are some high clouds, so let's se.

Gary

****************
Hi Gary,

Boy after reading the blog this morning I don't know whether to be hopeful or not for snow this season. We're up here in Leavenworth and saw absolutely nothing with the last snow fall. I blogged last year and said the reason we didn't see much snow was because I moved to the area. You reassured me that it wasn't me, but if we don't get anything this year I'm going to have to stick to MY weather theory...where I am the snow isn't. I hope I'm proven wrong this year...

Snowless in Leavenworth
(Janine)
-------------------
Janine,

There is hope around Thursday or so. But, this is a strange storm.

Gary

**************
Gary,

How is that storm looking as of right now? Any new updates? When are you gonna blog?

Andy
---------------
Andy,

Jeff did a blog on the latest data. It was such a sad solution I just couldn't blog about it. I will blog again later this evening.

Gary

***************
Will we be able to see the Aurora Borealis tonight?
----------------------
Emily,

There is a chance, but right now it is cloudy.

Gary

*******************
Went to visit "fantasy land" a second ago, Ah it looks so nice on day 7, I could eat that solution up, but I know that it's just the mean old GFS trying to tease me!
I had another thought today, I'm still not a big fan of Global Warming, but lets say that the Earth is warming like they are saying. The bigger effects of the "warming" have been seen to be more aggresive the higher in latitude you go and less so the farther south you go. If this is actually happening then the overall difference between the polar and equatorial regions in terms of temperatures should be shrinking somewhat, this is where it gets interesting, IF that is the case then could that cause the jet stream to be more feable over time, since after all the temperature gradient between the north and south is what causes the jet stream? Now, lets say that the jet stream is slowly weakening over time, since winter is the time of year that it affects us the most(is its furthest south and its strongest) then woulden't that cause the winters to react to this "Global warming" more than the summers, hence we still have cool summers from time to time, but lately our winters seem hard pressed to balance out " above ave temp, below ave snow" winters with thier opposite?(probably oversimplifing it a little but I thought it was an interesting idea)
Thanks for your time.
Nick(wishing the GFS would do more than just tease him:)) in St. Joe!
---------------
Nick,

Good idea on the jet stream and Global Warming. It may be so minor, but it could happen.

I have some buds coming out on my trees already. We must get cold soon.

Gary

***********************
Mr. Lezak,

I'm a college student nearing graduation, and I'm wondering why you ranked your models as you did (above you posted GFS #1, ECMWF #2, NAM #3, UKMET #4, Canadian model #5, NGM last.) I assume you're ranking these on personal experience, so I'm just wondering what you've thought of the NAM since the WRF was implemented. I don't pretend to know a lot about the finer details yet; I'll be taking Numerical Weather Prediction next semester.

Thanks,

Micheal

P.S. Another commenter above me stated that "Your passion and excitement are contagious!!!!" I have to agree with him on that point. You may or may not remember, but I shadowed you 7 years ago (I can't believe it's been that long.. but I guess it has!) and I'm about to graduate with my BS now!
-----------------------
Micheal,

I do remember you! It is amazing how long it has been.

The NAM is being changed a bit in the next few weeks. About 3 or 4 different changes are being done to it and I am not sure what they are at this point. But, they better help because it has been doing a very poor job, even 12 to 24 hours out.

Gary

***********
Looks very interesting (smile) late Wed. night into Thursday morning...upper low track looks good for a quick hit of accumulating snow...maybe some convective elements?? Like the temps aloft that start to crash as the upper low wobbles in. GFS is tappi ng us on the shoulder saying...don't forget it's winter time boyz!!
--------------------------
Brian,

Let's hope it takes a bit further south track.

Gary

***************
Hi Gary, I still think we are in a similar pattern to 1987. The NAMS and GFS show the storm south which could go anywhere she wants. If you adjust 1987 to our pattern, we look to have a major snow possibly on Thursday.
Gary B.
----------------------
Gary,

Unfortunately the differences are there. Let's hope that we get Thursday's storm though.

Gary

************
Gary, I really hate to sort of continue asking a question that someone else sort of said, but when you said that the NAM is going to have some changes, are they YOUR choice of change or someone elses ideas to make it do its job better? And also, will this make your forecast MORE accurate?
---------------
Alden,

I am still uncertain of the new changes. In March the NAM (North American Mesoscale) model changed. And, now there is some tweaking going on but I just don't know what they are. It will only help us if we can figure out the new bias's of the model.

Gary