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We are leaving for Wichita this am and wonder how weather is down I-35 into there.
Wedding weekend for friends.
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Ginger,

It is too warm for any travel problems through Wichita. Just a lot of rain.

Have a great weekend.

Gary

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Thanks so much and you have a wonderful New Year. We'll be home before that but things get busy. I keep up with you on the road too.
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Ginger,

Happy New Year to you too!

Gary

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Gary-
an off the topic question, but... I work at a golf course and was wondering if there is a good way to predict the likleyhood of frost in the mornings? This is important for us to know, so we can give our customers an idea of when we will open.
Also, i read this religiously and follow YOUR forcasts for planning our work schedule. I was wondering if you have any suggestions for two things- 1st a work pc weather/radar/ lightning program, and 2nd how helpful would spotter training be for me and our staff for this upcoming storm season?
thanks,
jeff
falcon lakes golf course
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Jeff,

The best way to predict frost is to see what the dew point, or frost point is. If the dewpoint is below freezing and the temperatures is forecast to drop into the lower or middle 30s and we have light winds then you have a very good chance of frost.

I am so glad you are enjoying the blog. I played golf out there a few years ago, but I just haven't had time to play lately. The course should be in good shape this spring if it keeps precipitating.

Gary

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According to the Denver Post on this day here in Kansas City in 1830 it snowed 36 inches. Well we may not see that in a total winter snowfall for many more years as it seems it will not, cannot snow here anymore. Lets just forget it, and bag this winter and head into spring, theory's, trends, whatever you want to call it, it won't snow. We are not living right or something. Plan a BBQ, go golf, get the boats out.
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Keith,

Wow! 36 inches is always possible, and now we know it may have happened before records were kept. Can you imagine? One of these days. Don't give up on this winter yet. This is the type of pattern that should have something up its sleeve for us.

Gary

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I've been here 5 years and it seems this winter is pretty much like the prior 4. I moved up here from Dallas on the heels of that ice storm in 2002 so let me just say that a "boring" winter is a good winter, as far as I'm concerned.
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Tom,

Then you are probably enjoying this. I don't mind the warm weather, I just want a few big snowstorms.

Gary

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Looking at the 06Z GFS and the latest NAM runs, they seem to want to hold back the rain until about noon on Saturday, do you think that the rain timing has slowed down since last night any? Also what is kind of neat is the ridge that is exactly above the trough(maybe a bit of a "Rex Block"?).
One more thing, why does the NGM have the intensities of the vorticies so weak looking? In other words, I never see the deep reds and dark oranges like on the other models, it looks like it trys to smooth out the features.
Thanks for your time.
Nick(waiting for the storm)in St. Joe!
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Nick,

I just don't have time right now to answer all of your questions. But, the storm should begin before sunrise Saturday.

Gary

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You're the best!!

I plan my days, weeks and months with your weather reporting. I am also getting an education by reading your blog daily. Haven't quite figured out all the maps yet but I am working on it. I find it all very fascinating.

All of my co-workers now listen to your weather forecast.

Keep up the good work.
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Rose,

Excellent! If our blog can help us get more viewers then we will all be better off. One of my goals is to get the viewers to trust the weather forecast. I know that if they switch to NBC Action News then they will learn there is a difference. So, thank you for spreading the word to your co workers.

Gary

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I find this "36 inch" storm a dubious tale, considering that the "town of Kansas" was not formed until 1838. Prior to that is was the Chouteau fur trading post. I would think that there was no one "qualified" to accurately measure a snowfall. The following is an excerpt from the Jackson County Historical Society:
In 1821, the State of Missouri was admitted to the Union. That same year, Francois Chouteau, a French fur trader from St. Louis, arrived in the region, accompanied by his young wife Berenice. The Chouteaus eventually built a fur trading empire on the banks of the river in what is now Kansas City. Another event occurred in 1821 that would shape the history of this county: a bankrupt and desperate man, William Becknell, made a daring decision to save himself from debtor’s prison by embarking on a trading expedition to the Spanish territorial capital of Santa Fe. Becknell’s route was the Santa Fe Trail, which would become the thoroughfare for international trade, outfitted in Jackson County, for years to come.

On December 15, 1826, the Missouri General Assembly organized Jackson County.

By the next year, Independence was established as the county seat. In 1827, Independence was nothing more than a fallen tree near a popular spring. But in a few years, its new entrepreneurs would become the premier outfitters for the Trail trade. The glory days of Independence as the Queen City of the Trails continued until 1844, when a flood destroyed its river landing.

The stage was set for the town of Westport to become the headquarters for travelers along the trails. Westport was platted in 1835 by John Calvin McCoy. Westport had its own landing on the Missouri River, connected to the town by a road that was later named Broadway. John Calvin McCoy was an industrious man. By 1838, he joined a group of other investors to purchase the farm of Gabriel Prudhomme, located on the south bank of the Missouri River near the Chouteau property. The investors paid $4220 for the land, which McCoy named the Town of Kansas. In 1850, township government was established for the Town of Kansas, which covered 352 acres and had a population of 150.
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Jim,

Thanks for the update. There must be some journal that talks about it.

Gary

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Gary

Great job keeping up with this blog. I honestly don't know how you do it!

I am leaving for a ski trip in Winter Park around 2 AM on Monday. Think I-70 in western Kansas will give me any problems? Have a great new year!
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Josh,

Everything should be cleared up by Monday.

Gary

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Hey Gary,

With the extremely warm temperatures we've had so far with this new pattern, and with no end in sight to them, do you expect a sizzling summer again? I just dread it...

Thanks!
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Drew,

Not necessarily. We have had warm winters and cool summers before. So, don't worry about it yet.

Gary

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Hi Gary, I know I'm just dreaming and the long range models can be total fantasy, but I really like what I'm seeing around days 13 & 14. It also looks very similar to what we had around the end of November which I think fits the pattern.

While I know many of us who love snow have been disappointed so far this year, I am very encouraged by the amount of moisture being sucked into these storms and their relative strength. One or more is going to hit us and it will be a weather event we won't soon forget.

Happy New Year!!
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Snowlover,

Can you imagine if we get hit by a snowstorm with that cold outbreak in 12 days? I am just living a fantasy here, but if it did happen then we would have had two snowstorms, an ice storm, three big rain storms, thunderstorms and two Arctic outbreaks. I am just saying, if it happens what have we been complaining about? If it doesn't then, well, let's not think about that.

Gary

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Looks like a possible small band of snow in the early morning on New Years Eve..though most of the snow will miss NW of us. I see this on the SPC SREF.
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Scott,

There is just NO cold air. So I doubt there is much of a chance.

Gary

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Look at the size of those snowflakes! They're like cotton balls!

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Gary:

Good late morning!!!

There are indeed journals that discuss the weather as well as personal diaries etc. where this information could have been taken from. An example is a book entitled the "Annals of Platte County" which records history from around 1835 or so. One of my favorites is that in 1841 or 1842, Platte county recorded only one frost the whole winter-it was like summmer the whole season-interesting for sure!!! It kind of shows that warm winters are not unprecidented here!!! Just remember 1972-73: 2.1 inches of snow!!!!

The real reason I am writing: have you checked out all the winter storm watches and warnings-wow-they stretch from southern New Mexico all the way to Central Minnesota including the Texas and Oklahoma Pan Handles-talk about a power house storm-very spring like with thunderstorms erupting south and east and massive snow/ice storm to the North and West-one just has to stare in awe how strong Mother Nature can be and how awesome in her power!!! Have a great afternoon!!!
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Bill,

Thanks for the comments! It has been a tough day keeping up with all of the blog comments and doing the job without Jeff Penner who has been on vacation.

Gary

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Gary,
I can not believe we are having another wet storm in December. This rain will actually soak into the ground because the ground temperatures are still very warm. I am also seeing signs of a pattern change down the road. However, the pattern change will likely be a slow transition to a colder and stormier pattern. The key is the slowdown in the Pacific flow and more blocking in the North Atlantic. The wild card still appears to be a very persistant ridge off the southeast coast.
Devin

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Gary:

Sorry to bother you again but wow!! Tornado warnings in Texas and Thunder Snow in Goodland with 2 to 3 inch and hour snow fall rates-man-what a power house storm-I just relly hope everybody in western Kansas took the warnings seriously-this may be a historical event for them when it is all said and done!!!!

It looks like the storms in Texas are beginning to move North-I hope those storms move up here and don't rob us of the moisture and we wind up dry slotted-the radar has a very errie feel to it right now!!! By the way, I am seeing the sun right now!!! lol!!!

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I see we might have a storm near by on the 8-10th of Jan. Is there a chance of snow then,
I know it is still a week-to week and a half away. How is jan setting up for in terms of storms. I hope we get some snow soon.
John Moon III
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John,

It looks Arctic, but will it still be showing up as we move into next year? I think it will be.

Gary

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This is a response to Jeff's question about a radar/lightning software. I use a program could GRLEVEL2. It is great. It allows you to view live radar, warnings, lightning, and you can even see the storm in 3d and do a cross section into the storm to investigate a potental tornado. I have been using the software for a year now and its great. You can even get a free 30 day trial. Here is the link: http://www.grlevelx.com/

David
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David,

Thanks for the information!

Gary

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I noticed you took the chance of snow out for sunday into monday Is the chance completely gone? Sorry cant wit for your update too nervous.
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Charles,

We will have to see if any cold air gets wrapped in behind the storm.

Gary

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Just want to thank you for your concern when my sister fell at the restaurant last night.
She is sore but already left for Florida this morning. Thanks again.
Shirley
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Shirley,

No problem. I am just so glad she is O.K. I saw her head hit the barrier and I was scared. She has a hard head.

Happy New Year.

Gary

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Are we in a longer than 40 day cycle? Thanks
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Steve,

I still believe it is close to 40 days. We should know more in the next few weeks.

Gary

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Gary,
I have about 3 questions to ask you. First of all, dosent ESP: Live have 5 radars? I've only been seeing 3. Second, looking at the information is everything going to your winter forecast? I know we still have a lot of time in winter for us to have a winter storm, much less a snow shower or two. But, by looking at how far into the future your computers can go, when is the chance that we could see a snowstorm here in KC?
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Alden,

Yes, ESP:LIVE has 5 radars incorporated in it. We decide which ones we will have on. They are always on, but which ones we want to show varies.

Secondly, and this will surprise a lot of people, everything is fitting into my winter forecast. We, very likely, way overestimated the cold air potential, but the pattern is really doing what I thought it would be doing. Storm systems are forming where I thought they would be, but this is unique. There is still a lot of potential left.

A big snowstorm is brewing on the latest run of the GFS. We should have a better idea next week.

Gary

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Jim, you forgot about the sod house that fell in along the kansas mo line, good grief, I just reported what I read on the Denver post web site, thanks for the history lesson, I guess.

Keith