*****************
It looks as though this particular sytem could trend all the way to Arkansas and it woudn't make a difference with regards to snow. Just no cold air anywhere. However I am more than tickeled with the amount of moisture we have recieved and will recieve for the month of December. Nice rain that could bode well for a very exciting severe weather season.
--------------------
Bri,

Bring on the rain. I love it. It is better than no storm to talk about.

Gary

***************
Gary,
I heard on the radio that some of these thunderstorms could be strong. Are there goining to be any thunderstorms or is it just going to be long periods of rain showers.
Thanks.
---------------------
Jeff,

I think there will be some thunderstorms with very heavy rain.

Gary

***************
Gary,

Ever given any thought to showing a computer model on TV? Perhaps the 500MB or the MSLP/Precip chart? It might be neat to show either of them and how they'd tie in to the LRC, the forecast, and why you are or are not forecasting snow for our area. If you do show something, be sure to show it at 10, as we're traveling back home today and won't be able to see it at 5 or 6!
--------------------
Tim,

The data I show is an interpretation from the models. I have shown the maps on the air in the past, but I think the better way to do it is by utilizing our art (weather graphics) computers.

Gary

Thanks,
Tim in GW

****************
one note from the nws...

MO set record for tornadoes.

Here is a breakdown of tornadoes by month.

January: 3
February: 2
March: 57
April: 14
May: 12
July: 3
September: 11

weird..more tornadoes in Jan than June
-----------------------
Brian,

Thanks for the information. This is quite impressive. I may show it tonight at 10 PM.

Gary

***************
Gary,
The models want to trend to a colder pattern, but the Pacific flow seems to win out nearly every time. Other features that have been consistent so far have been the very positive Arctic Oscillation and the positive phase of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation. The ridges in the Pacific are not strong enough and do not last long enough to block the mild Pacific air from moving into most of Canada. We had better get some snow in January if the pattern will produce.
Devin
---------------------
Devin,

This winter should have a few nice wintery twists to it. Well, it better.

Gary

*************
Gary, hello. Not so much a "graphic" request, but I would like to know/see how this December, with the soaking last week and the soaking we are expecting over the next few days, compares to the average December and Decembers in years past in regard to a rainfall total. Could KC end up with 3" of rain this month? If so, how many times has KC had a December with 0" of snow but 3" or more of rain?
------------------------------
Jay,

Great question! I am going to have to look, but I would bet that NEVER before have we had a wet month of December and had no snow. It may still snow on Sunday night, so we will see, but it also could be too warm.

I will work on a special graphic for 10 PM.

Gary

*****************
This, in my mind, is shaping up to be one of the most boring winters I can remember. I know that storms that produce rain are fun for meteorologists to track, but I feel like we can get rain any time of the year, big deal, I want snow! =) And then to hear that the models may be taking away our storm chances for around Jan. 10 just adds insult to injury. Let's tell Denver to quit hogging all the snow! =)
------------------------
Marlina,

This is anything but boring. Even in winter perspectives. This is a strong storm and it may still have a wintery twist to its tale. I think last winter was much more boring than this one.

Gary

*************
Gary,
Can you pinpoint what it will be like from noon to 3pm on Sunday?

--------------------------
Dave,

Are you going to the Chiefs game? Right now it appears that it will be mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Rain or snow showers?

Gary

**************************
Gary,

Looking forward to your graphics presentation later on. I enjoy the rainfall totals presentation. Especially when the dark reds are right over my area. That always gets me going. I have the next four days off to enjoy whatever happens and watch your updates. I never really comment much about the maps as I am trying to learn from everything on this blog. Just sometimes a comment everytime the snow misses us. Patience...I know. I can't help that. I actually thought about driving out to the rain/snow line just for something to do and to see my first flakes. My sister in law lives in Colorado Springs. Does that not sound tempting! I know better. In the mean time it will be fun trying to get my dog outside once the rain starts.
---------------------------
Brett,

Most of the rain will fall overnight Friday, but the heaviest may be Saturday morning when the dogs will just look at me.

Enjoy your days off.

Gary

****************
Can you show some video from Denver, just to spark a memory of snow.
-------------------
Michael,

We will show some tonight at 10 PM.

Gary

******************
oo also can someone update the video forecast since its from december 20th. I rely on that alot of times since I may not be able to catch your forecast on tv so It would be nice if that was updated after each 10pm newscast.
---------------------
Michael,

I will check on it and see what the problem is.

Gary

**************
Gary...

Not to be pessimistic, but has KCI ever gone an entire winter without measurable (1") snow?

Tye
---------------------
Tye,

No! The lowest amount of snow ever has been 4.5".

Gary

***************
Gary I have a request you should do research of the top 5 least snowiest winters on record this could be one of them if this keeps up will at least on the north side of the city.
-------------------
Jeremy,

This is a stat we will be paying close attention to in the next few weeks.

Gary

*************
I think it would be very funny to show how much rain will fall in terms of how many champaigne classes it would fill for New Year's!
----------------------
Leonard,

I will have to figure this math problem out.

Gary

**********
How disappointing. I never remember so much rain in December. We finally have a winter with moisture, but there's no cold air to support snow.
------------------------
Marshall,

I know. And, if we didn't have El Nino I wonder if these storm systems would have had more cold air available to them. There is still hope, but we must get some cold air down here and right now there is no sign of it.

Gary

*******************
Gary,
Unlike most, I'd like to see additional rainfall before any deep freeze and or snow. At this point it will still soak into the ground, opposed to just runoff.

I'd appreciate it if you could give an estimate of rainfall from this system for extreme NW Mo. Thanks for this Blog!!
--------------------------
Eric,

I am doing it!

Gary

***************
Gary, on your graphics how far west do you go? Are you going to show potential by each day or in the whole window of the storm? This would be so weird that we would get no snow for the whole season. I am not a beleiver in the whole Global warming thing, however, I am doing research now over the past 50 years of snowfall throughout the state of Kansas dividing the state up into three main regions. Have fun tracking this storm. Michael/Topeka
-----------------------
Michael,

Let us know what you find!

Gary

**********************
Hey Gary,

I want to Thank You for doing such a great job. I always read your blog everyday. Do you foresee us not getting much more snow this winter. It seems winter around here is starting to become a thing of the pass. Yeah we get a good snow then it seems like nothing else happens. It feels very much like last year's pattern. I feel something has to give here. Once again great job.
Jon
Williamsburg, KS
--------------------------
Jon,

Thanks! This year's pattern is so different than last year, but they amazingly have produced similar snow results. One snowstorm and then nothing. But, last winter was dry too. We are not dry now.

I am still hopefull for a few snows, but at this moment it certainly doesn't seem like it.

Gary

***************
Gary:

Good afternoon!! Hope you had a good workout!!

FWIW which may not be much, the 12Z Euro looks like it is taking the low further south over the weekend-it looks much further south than the Nam or GFS. Possibly another twist!!!!??? The other point that I found intresting is that the 10 day Euro at 500 ht. looks very similar to what the end of November looked like-it really is trying to bring some much colder air down-one run of one model 10 days out-but at least it is there somewhere!!!! Have a great afternoon!!!
------------------------
Bill,

Tonight's run will be the most important yet as the upper low is about to bottom out near Mexico.

The GFS had the same thing as the ECMWF just a day or so ago. The 18z GFS is worth throwing away and never looking at it again. So, we will see.

Gary

***************
Gary, how about for the graphics showing WHEN we will have snow again. We're all waiting for some snow, so seeing the models are saying could give us an idea of when we could see snow, much less a snow storm.
---------------
Alden,

There is still a slight chance for this storm.

Gary

****************
I have a feeling it will end up being the warmest and least snowfall amount for much of the eastern half of the country, esp the northeast. Long standing records will be shattered. At least we are getting some action and much needed rain this weekend.
-----------------
Joe,

You could be correct. Is this Global Warming, El Nino, or just a crazy weather pattern?

Gary

***************
Your graphics plan sounds good to me!
And eventhough we probably won't get any snow think of it this way, we will likely be under the influence of a storm system until next YEAR!!!
BTW, for what its worth the NAM seems to be slower with this storm than the GFS, but this is the NAM were talking about:)
Nick in(cloudy) St. Joe!
--------------------
Nick,

I may use your statement on the air, "this storm could last into next year". I like that. The NAM will be coming out in two hours. Oh boy! Here we go again as emotions start spinning.

Gary

***********
Maybe you could describe rainfall in terms of an ark. The bigger the ark and the more animals onboard, the more that area's potential for rainfall.
-------------------------
Tom,

I guess we may have half an ark's full.

Gary

******************
Gary, in general, it's been awful warm since last spring up until now - hasn't it? How about temp departure from normal plotted month to month?
---------------------------
Chicago David,

Good idea. I will work on it and see what it looks like.

Gary

******************
I have a request for a graphic...based on your rainfall estimates, how much snow would our area receive during the next several days if our temperatures were below freezing? Can you make a map of that? I'd like to see exactly what we'll be missing.
---------------------
Marshall,

We don't want to see that graphic. It would be too painful. It would be one to two feet.

Gary

***************
Not sure if you can pull it off this late but, I'd love to see an update on your weather pattern theory. I know you talk about it in the blog but, it would be nice to see a short update on air. How is it all panning out? What are the trends for the next few months? Did you expect the weather to be this warm?
Keep up the great work Gary.
Thanks!
---------------------
Dean,

I do this every once in a while on the air. And, there is one thing that appears I was way off on. The warm winter. I just thought that there would be a Great Lakes upper low much more often. That cold air source is non existent at this moment. So, yes, it appears I way overestimated the potential for cold air. Let's see what happens the rest of winter.

Gary

**************
Show how far South the storm need to go for snow.
------------------
Andrew,

If it were that simple I would. With this set up it is more complicated than just the track.

Gary

**************
Hi Gary...just wanted to confirm with you that if it doesn't snow by Monday this will be the first time in years that it hasn't snowed in November or December (officially because of KCI) in a very long time. Thanks much! Jennifer
--------------------------
Jennifer,

This is one of those stats I don't like to talk about since we had a major snowstorm in the viewing area.

Gary

**************
Hello Gary,
So if we do see snow what is the worst case scenario? Do you think it will be cold enough?
Thanks for your time
Anne
--------------------
Anne,

We can't talk about worse case scenarios until we really think it may snow.

Gary

***********************
I do not like the latest model trends. At least we are going to see some good rainfall across the entire viewing area. I really want some snow though. Well at least we have a chance of snow on sunday night. Do you see any other storms next month that could be some snow producers for us? I hope the winter season will still be exciting and I hope that what we got dec 1st is not the last of big snow events for this winter season. Lets get some more snow!!! If I can think of some graphics ideas I will be sure to let you know right now I dont really know.
----------------------
Thanks John,

Let's hope for a nice trend.

Gary

******************
Gary, just enjoyed your 6pm forecast on TV. That would be crazy if that 2" or more of rain section moved farther east to include us. December showers bring January flowers?! Wait. I'm all confused. Thanks for the feedback on the graphic request -- I'll be watching at 10pm!

You are KC's most accurate AND most passionate meteorologist!

Jay
---------------------
Jay,

Thank you so much. I like that one I will use it on the radio in the morning. December showers bring January flowers......excellent!

Gary

******************
Hi Gary - The Dog ain't complaining! I love a good rainstorm, and if there is one clap of thunder, or rumble, well, that just makes it better. This December has been terrific, and has turned out to be, I'd bet, a much wetter than normal one. I am looking forward to the upcoming system with relish! The fact that Friday is ACTUALLY my Friday, and I have 5 days off, including Saturday, when the rain will be the heaviest, doesn't break my heart in the least.

You can't collect snow well in my rain-gauge, so I prefer rain.

Anyway, we will see what happens.

Dog
----------------------
Dog,

Enjoy your days off!!!!!!!

Gary

*******************
Hey Gary, I just got Oregon Scientific weather station. One of those things that show in/outdoor temp, humidity and barometric pressure. Right now, in Grain Valley, the Pressure is 30.06, with this incoming storm, when can I expect to start to see the pressure drop? It actually rose a bit from last night when I plugged it in.

Dave C.
------------------
It should be falling steadily during the next 36 hours.

Gary

**************
Hi Gary,
I just checked the satellite loop, and I'm wondering if it's just my imagination, or is the low still digging in a southerly direction? Did you expect it to be turning east by now? I just can't let my snow hopes die!! Kathleen
------------------------
Kathleen,

Amazingly.....it may not matter where this upper low tracks. There is so much warm air wraping around this thing that it may be in the 40s on Sunday. This would eliminate the snow threat. I am as sad as you, and if there is any hope I will let you know.

Gary

****************
Gary, glad you like the line! And before I start watching for tulips sprouting in January, I was just at the NWS/NOAA site looking at the "warnings" map for the United States. There are currently snow advisories, winter-storm watches, winter-storm warnings and/or heavy-snow warnings for adjacent US counties from the US/Mexico border to the US/Canada border. Is that as odd or unusual as it seems or does that tend to happen so often? I realize the Rocky Mountains cover a lot of that ground, but still...
---------------------------
Jay,

That is extremely odd, but this pattern is unique so why not!

Gary

*******************
well, then this may be a dumb question, but I'll go ahead ....does that mean that there IS no "cold side" to this thing, or just that by the time the cold side comes through, the moisture will be gone? Kathleen
-----------------
Kathleen,

There is a cold side. So, once the surface low passes by colder air will move in. And, sometimes the computer models underestimate this colder air. There is still hop on the back side, IF the storm can track south of us.

Gary

*************
Gary,
The NAM just went bizerk with rainfall!! Is that some colder air on the backside? What will the surface temps be? (I know it's the NAM:)

David
(Still holding out hope)
-----------------
David,

The surface temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s on the back side. But, the computer could be wrong. Let's hope.

Gary

**********
gary,

I just wanted to know if this storm has its own cold air, where the vorticy is the strongest. I heard that somewhere. i dont kno. But i do know that i want it to snow.

Andy
--------------------
Andy,

The upper level storm will have cold air with it, and this is where you never know for sure what may happen. We will watch it closely as it heads our way.

Gary

********************
Gary, me again. Just a few quick questions, about this and not on the blog topic. First, dosen't your ESP: Live have 5 radars? I've only been seeing 3. Second, based on all of your computers, how far into the futrue do they track. Third, and on the blog topic, is there a possibilty that you could show where this low could track to see snow? I know there is a LOT of warm air around this thing and us, but could it just all of a sudden change, and us have below to much below average temps., thus for making us have snow sooner and more of it. I know that's like 5 questions in 1 and sorry about that.
-----------------------
Alden,

Great questions!

#1: ESP:LIVE has five radars incorporated into it. Nexrads from Wichita, Omaha, Springfield, Topeka, and Pleasant Hill (our National Weather Service). We decide which ones will be on and off.

#2: The GFS goes out to 16 days, and the overnight run of the model had a very cold airmass and storm here near the end.

#3: Tonight, I will be showing the track of the upper level storm. It is more vertically stacked like the last one. So, it is not our typical winter storm and this is why the warm air hangs around so long. We still have to watch the back side.

It may turn colder soon, but for now we continue our stretch of above average days. I think we are up to 20 in a row.

Gary

**************
Gary,
I'm glad you liked that comment I made and I did get to see you use it!
Also there will be a streak that will break, for the past three years it has been 62 degrees for the high on New Year's Day, so it looks like this year will break that weird streak!!
Now let the rainstorm come(just as long as we don't have to mow in January;))
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
----------------------
Nick,

GREAT STAT! I had forgotten about this. You are right. It has been 62 degrees three New Year's Day's in a row. Not this year! That is an amazing stat though.

Gary

*****************
So are you going to change your snowfall prediction? 25" just does not seem possible now. My girls are ready to use their snow sleds and wear their snow pants.
By the way you are the only weatherman I watch. I still believe in you!!!1
Thanks
Leah
---------------------
Leah,

Thank you for not giving up on me. I am not going to change the winter forecast. Last year I changed the low forecast of 11 inches which was right on. So, with this pattern we could suddenly have 25 inches and I should never have changed it. Yes, this is a strange weather pattern, as usual if that makes sense. We already had a 20 inch snowfall very close to us a month ago. And, there may be two more chances like that coming up soon. So, the forecast could still end up right. And, we expected it to be a fairly wet winter. So, that part is already correct.

Gary

*******************
Gary:

Good Morning from the long winded rambler from Lawrence!!! I have to say again your blog is fantastic-just a look at all the bloggers is evidence of how great this blog truly is-you and the weather team should be extremely proud of the hard and excellent work you have done with it-it is a great service to this community!!!

Man, is Western Kansas getting pounded-ice and heavy snow-I am very happy for them in the fact they are getting some much needed moisture-I just hope everybody stays safe and that people heading to the slopes on I-70 take this storm seriously-could be many stranded travellers from Colby westward in the next 48 hours. The model qpf for us is just awesome-this one storm could totally break the dry conditions that we have here in Lawrence (we are still almost 7 inches below normal here)-it won't get us back to normal, but if we could get 1-2 inches it would put the deficit in a place that could be dealt with. Great radar returns moving through Western Kansas currently-a hopeful sign of things to come!!

My fear, and I was wondering what you think about this, is that the modles also want to develop some big convection in the gulf-could this in turn rob us of some of the moisture and thus taper our amounts a bit? If only cold air could have been in place..oh, sorry, my snow bias is getting in the way here!!!

I have to say that it is beginning to look like the LRC is proving itself again; The models have been advertising a colder pattern in the longer range-the GFS ensembles and the Euro really want to bring some colder air and the 500 ht pattern looks very similar to the end of November-the teleconnections are forecasted to go in the right direction at this time which lends some credence to the models (of course, the modles are what the AO etc are based on so it is kind of like a house of cards!!!!) but more importantly, it looks like the NWT are beginning to get cold again and head back to normal if not somewhat below normal-to me that is a great sign-the cold air source is beginning to build. Of course, at the end of the day, this is a picture of 10 days away based on data from today so it is all massive conjecture but at least there are signs/signals that a change to cold could be in the wind!!! Still grasping that straw!!!

Great job forecasting this storm-Like I said before, I think it is great to leave options on the table-espec. here-things can change on a dime-(I still would not be surprised if there is a curve ball with this storm!!) and although snow never looked real good, the possiblity was always there and with storms like this, anything can happen!!! Have a great day and I'm hoping the models are spot on with the qpf for here-it is for sure a slow mover so if a band does set up, it should go for a while!!!! Thanks also again for the chance to correspond with you-it is indeed an honor for a hobbyist like myself to talk with someone who is an expert like you in the weather and be talked to as an equal not down to-that also is a real credit to you!!!!
---------------------
Bill,

Thank you so much. It is rather obvious that we have a lot of people reading, enjoying, and participating in the NBC Action Weather Blog. I have kept a weather calendar since 1978 and when blogging started to spread around a couple of years ago I jumped on it. It is fun, and yes it takes a lot of my time, but I enjoy every minute of it.

This is now a "cut off low, weatherman's woe". Last night was actually a rather difficult night to do the weather. The NAM came out with nearly 3 inches of rain here, the GFS with maybe one inch, and the computer model I like to use on the air (our Adonis model) came out with 0.57". So, right before I was on that was the last thing I saw and it left me a bit frustrated. But, this morning it seems that everything is pointing towards a slower solution allowing us to really get a lot of rain.

I agree with you. This storm could easily throw in a twist or two and surprise us. If there was just some cold air near by. We will monitor it closely all weekend long.

And, the LRC lives on. I always say it isn't a series of computer models but actually a series of what actually happens that counts. We could go all the way into next week and then suddenly, boom there it is. It will be interesting to see if it happens right on schedule. It did last year when I thought it would turn cold in early February. So, let's see what happens. But, sometimes even though it is the same pattern something could be slightly different like the Pacific jet being a bit stronger, etc. and you get a different solution, and then the next time through the cycle everything lines up perfectly again. I still expect it to happen. So, we will know soon.

Have a great weekend. We will keep the blog current over the weekend.

Gary

**************
KCTV5 said something I thought was funny but still accurate

"we may not see the sun till next year"
-------------------------
Charles,

What are you watching them for? Just kidding, but really what are you watching them for? O.K. I am just kidding sort of as we will likely see the sun today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Even if just for a few minutes.

Anyway, This storm could last all the way into next year! Wow!

Gary

**************
I watch everybody!
------------------
Charles,

How diplomatic of you! No, I understand.

Gary