KSHB: Weather: Action Weather Blog: The weather pattern & an Arctic front

I think we have figured out the pattern that we are cycling through. Remember my weather pattern theory: The weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th and then begins cycling. It then continues until sometime in late summer as it falls apart. EVERY YEAR IS UNIQUE.

This year's pattern has done it again. What causes it? What creates the cycle? How can you determine the cycle? These are just a few of the many questions that can be asked. The third one I can answer and I can show you the evidence. The cycle can be determined by looking at the weather pattern every day and then comparing the upper level charts to what has already happened in the previous weeks.

I bring this up today because I think there is strong evidence that the weather pattern now is very similar to the weather pattern of around 40 days ago or so. The weather pattern last week during our thunderstorms, then ice storm, then snow storm was very similar to the storm that came through us around October 16th through 19th. We may be in a 40 day cycle, but let's see what we think in a couple of weeks.

There are still uncertainties but confidence is growing in what this pattern truly is. We will have some exciting moments this winter. This is a unique pattern that has never happened before and this is where the challenges will come from. Something is still very strange about it. There are some characteristics of El Nino. I can see them. But, something MUCH BIGGER is going on and then being influenced by El Nino. Los Angeles is only about 50% of their average rainfall so far. El Nino anamolies would suggest dry in Seattle and wet in Los Angeles. The exact opposite is happening on the west coast. This is what I was anticipating when we made our winter forecast as one of the main features is this persistant ridge around 145 west. This has been preventing storm systems from getting to Southern California. I expect a few to make it there in January and February with the jet stream strengthening, but only if we get a major split. If a major split happens then Kansas City should benefit with some exciting weather during the middle part of winter as well.

This is a strange weather pattern and I will have more later when we really know the pattern. I think we will have chances for some winter weather before Christmas with a few of these progressive storm systems. But, I wouldn't mind a block setting up which would allow us to benefit with some more exciting weather. If the flow blocks up across the northern hemisphere we are in the right location to have a big storm. I just don't see it happening anytime soon.

Switching subjects......An Arctic front will move through tonight and then the cold air will rapidly move out on Friday. There is a chance of a few snow flurries tonight as the front moves through. The storm for next week is already looking much differently than it looked yesterday (there is actually a chance of snow on the new data but it is too far out to get excited and it is marginal). This is why you should disregaurd most 10 to 15 day outlooks when the flow is so strong. A small change in the first few days will become a MAJOR change in the longer range.

Have a great day. I am taking a couple of days off to catch up on my sleep beginning Thursday. Jeremy will be filling in Thursday and Friday night.

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Gary,

Enjoy your weather theory. The wet-seattle dry-l.a. situation has what kind of implications for us? Does it tend to lessen our moisture chances?
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Brad,

The west coast situation should help us, not hurt us. If storm systems come into the west coast north of Los Angeles then drop into the plains we should have more storm systems than we have been having so far. Let's see what happens next week.

Gary

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Shouldn't we always disregard 10-15 day forecasts?
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Hank,

In some respects yes! But, if you know the pattern then you can look at the models and see whether there is any validity to what they are predicting. Today's GFS run fits with what I believe the pattern is during the next 15 days. The ECMWF from yesterday and the recent GFS runs do not fit.

Then again, if you know the pattern well you almost don't need to look any longer into the long range (no pun inteneded). But, so many markets go up and down based on these model runs. It would amaze you...the over reacting.

Gary

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Since you have a better feel of the cycle, do you plan to change your snowfall amount?
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Ann,

I did that last year, changing our original forecast of 11 inches to 26 inches as I thought that the December snowstorm could repeat. It did repeat, but the snow part of it didn't. This year we will just stick to it. The snow forecast is just a guess. It is the pattern I want to predict correctly. The 25 inches will likely happen in Clinton, Butler, the Lake of the Ozarks since they are already more than half way there. Up north, well, right now you wonder.

Gary

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Gary,
If I recall correctly, last year there was a ridge around the Montana Idaho area that prevented us from getting good precip. How is the ridge further west affecting our pattern this year? Will it strengthen, weaken, or have no affect to us as it is in California right now? Also, my parents are considering driving up from Florida before Christmas and for health reasons they CANNOT handle adverse weather conditions. Cold maybe, but if they slip on snow or ice it could be devastating. Do you have any advice on the potential it could be good or bad?

Fayetteville Jim
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Jim,

For your parents just email me and we can go over the travel conditions that week. Hopefully it will be fine.

The Montana to southern Canadian ridge is not there this year. There is ridging at low latitudes off the California coast and this could end up being very good for us in the February through May time period.

Gary

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Gary,

Crazy totally off the topic question: I've read several science articles about the migration of the true magnetic North Pole. Do you believe this is true? I have in my mind this can somehow affect global weather patterns. The true magnetic North Pole is generally not talked about as a weather influencer. Still, I can't shake the thought the two may somehow be connected. Have you heard of this? If so, do you think there's any relationship between the Earth's true magnetic north and global weather patterns?

Just curious,
Brad
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Brad,

I have heard of this, but I don't know enough about it to comment on it.

Gary

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Gary,
You mentioned you think we might have some chances for some winter weather before Christmas? What does winter weather mean? Wouldn't one assume we would have winter weather with winter approaching?
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Erin,

Yes and no. Last December after it was cold with a major snowstorm it then warmed up in mid December and stayed warmer through January.

I do expect some warm ups, but also some winter storms near by.

Gary

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El Nino should dictate a stronger potential of a split stream. Regardless of temp or precip models, I think we may have a good chance at some blocking. I have seen the blocking tendacies even as far back as late August when El Nino was ramping up. I am convinced we will have some blocking...just not sure how often or how strong. Regarless, the cycle will still be as it seems with only the blocking intensifying it. Also, next weeks storm as usual is hard for the models. I am still on target with yesterday's blog's thoughts. Throw the models out the door. The storm will speed up on the models like to see to come in around the 9-11th. The GRC is set [or in my case the SMCv.2]. Rely on it. It is your edge, Gary.
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Scott,

This is why I forecasted December 10th for our first snow, as you stated in an earlier blog comment. It will very likely be an upper low and just cold enough on Monday or Tuesday. Something to watch.

Sometimes knowing my pattern ruins the excitement. Sometimes knowing it helps A LOT. I just have to be more patient like I tell all of you guys.

Gary

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Gary, I am addicted to the weather report. You have got to be my all-time favorite. But your enthusiasm when the weather gets wild freaks me out and your boredom when the weather is calm scares me a little. Your accuracy is the best I've seen, and you seem like a sweetheart. I don't get the science of it all, but keep up the good work.
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Linda,

Wow, you are so funny. There you have me. I go up and down. I am somewhat emotional, but I am myself. Most "on air" people I have come in contact with over the years are just fake including most meteorologists. They aren't themselves. At least you get me every day.

Gary

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The bummer here is that given the 40 day pattern doesn't that mean will be warm & dry for christmas?
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Snowlover,

Maybe and maybe not! If we are truly in a 40 day cycle then there will be at least two chances for snow between now and Christmas. The same specific things like warm spells, dry spells, snowstorms, thunderstorms, won't necessarily happen on the next cycle. So, there is hope.

Gary

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Gary,
I'm at Tightwad and my country lane is still snow covered. The two mile country road I have to travel to get to Hwy 7 is also snow packed. I think I should leave here soon as possible to move to St. Joseph. I am serious as I have a home there also. Should I look back to a warm spell to see when I should plan to travel north 40 days hence? Love you and trust your forecasts.
Marolyn
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Marolyn,

Watch out for a couple of storm systems in the next two weeks.

Gary

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Hello, I may be COMPLETELY misunderstood, but to me I didn't understand this statment:
"I bring this up today because I think there is strong evidence that the weather pattern now is very similar to the weather pattern of around 40 days ago or so. The weather pattern last week during our thunderstorms, then ice storm, then snow storm was very similar to the storm that came through us around October 16th through 19th. We may be in a 40 day cycle, but let's see what we think in a couple of weeks" I know it makes this reply long, but do you mean that the recent storm we had could happen again withen the next couple of weeks, or again on Tuesday on your seven day forecast? I know you said lets wait a couple of weeks and thats fine with me. I just don't quite get it.
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Alden,

If we are in around a 40 day cycle then that series of events could occur again around January 10th to 15th. This would be 40 days after November 30th. But, I am not certain yet.

Gary

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Gary,
So with the current pattern cycling we will have to probably wait until Janruary before we see sub zero temperatures and stronger storms with snow potential? The only way we can get snow in this part of the pattern is if a storm is quite strong and generates its own pool of cold air, and taps any cold air further north. This has happened occasionally in the winters when El Nino is present.
Devin
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Devin,

Perhaps you are correct. We would need a block to form. So far, for reasons I can't quite explain, it refuses to block up.

Gary

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Sorry to show my ignorance, but what exactly do you mean by "block up"?
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Snowlover,

If the flow can amplify enough, in other words have the jet stream become much more north to south and south to north instead of just straight west to east, then a ridge can get so strong that it will become somewhat stationary for a while and we would then lock up the flow, or "block" up the flow. This happens every year at some point, but this season it has yet to happen. I think it will and when it does, true winter would arrive.

Gary

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For those scoring at home, the SMCv.2 shows snow on or just a day or two before or after Christmas. We will see. Active 10-15th, dry until the 25th. For more info on the SMCv.2 cycles, see previous blogs.

If you prefer the GRC path, subtract 40-42 days from Dec. 25th and you have Nov. 13-15th. Just look back to the blogs for those days, and you will see what the GRC and SMCv.2 are trending.

Now..if you look at that storm, in Nov, we missed it, but the storm was there. Keep in mind, the jet is strengthening and the secondary subtropical jet is getting stronger as well. This November storm just missed us last time...I bet its closer this time for Christmas.

Just a bit of Christmas cheer. Gary, I think I got this now.
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Scott,

I remember you saying the Scott Mini Cycle ended months ago.

It won't be dry between now and Christmas. It could actually be quite wet. We will see? I think you have had a small case of modelitis.

Gary

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I just got off of work a little bit ago and the wind has really picked up! It is pretty energetic.
I don't know how much of a true statement this is because I know the main factor in this is the GRC, but I do think that El Nino, at least to some extent skews the odds in favor of ice, probably because of its favoritism of the subtropical jet allowing for "spring like moisture to come north and if the GRC is willing to allow the ridging of the polar jet into Canada, then cold air would be more likely to have to slide under the warmer air. Since we have already had freezing rain in this pattern I do think that this is something we may have to be leary about, or maybe not!:)
Thanks for your time.
Nick(pondering) in St. Joe!
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Nick,

You have a good idea, but look at last week. That was a lot of fluffy ice to our south?

Gary

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Come on Gary make a decision. By the time you committ to the final theory of the weather pattern it will be a post mortem. By that time I could tell you the pattern.

If you committ one way and are wrong so what.It is obvious you have a gut feeling how things are going to play out. Stop beating around the bush and just committ to a thoery and stick with it unless mother nature just throws a huge curve ball. Then all you can do is just duck!!
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Leonard,

I am 100% committed to the theory. But, this pattern has not been 100% discovered. THIS YEAR'S PATTERN, not the theory. We go through this every year. I am not beating around the bush at all. Each time through the cycle we will get DIFFERENT results in the weather we experience. But, it is still the SAME PATTERN.

Gary

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Gary, I was wondering if you forsee the Northland getting any snow this winter season? Seems so far it is all going to the south. I would love to have some snow! I hope you have a great break and get some well deserved rest.
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Danie,

It will snow this month! It just has to.

Gary

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Gary,

Just want to tell you what an outstanding job you do with your weather presentations and accuracy- great job on that last storm! Yeah... I am the snow lover and the one from McLouth...where apparently we still have our atmospheric lid in place, I hope this last arctic front blew it OFF, haha. So your not sure of the pattern yet...but one thing is for sure, you will be the most accurate and confident while making it "exciting" meteorolgist in KC.
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Brett,

Thank you so much! What a great way to start my four day weekend.

The last three GFS runs are trending towards some chances for snow before Christmas. Maybe Santa will bring us a nice present.

Gary

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Gary,

Do you feel that this pattern is more or less condusive to spring/summer rains?

BTW, a little bit of a weather geek myself - your theory is interesting to follow.

Brad
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Brad,

Thank you for following our blog and my theory. It is a bit early to make the spring forecast. As soon as we have this pattern down we will make a spring projection.

Gary

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Gary..sigh. The SMC did "die" a month or two ago, but the second version, ie. SMCv.2 did not. It did morph a bit, much like the GRC does before you finally lock it.

I do not suffer from modelitis. I don't trust them right now. Actually, I don't look much at them right now until the cycle dictates its time. The GRC and SMCv.2 seem to be more reliable, wouldn't you agree?

Also, I did not say it would be dry until Christmas. Per the last few blogs and even the last one, I say we will have some fun between Dec 10th through the 15th. We will have a break from around the 16th through the 24th, with something again about the 25th.
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Scott,

There is an exciting trend in the models, but it is still very, very strange.

Gary

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Funny, I was going to call you today to let you know that my confidence is really growing on where we are at in the pattern. Great minds think a like, we will really have to watch right around xmas or right after is what I am thinking
Doug Heady
Chief Meteorologist
Joplin
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Doug,

But the pattern is still strange? There is potential.

Gary

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If you believe the GFS 00Z..holy cow. You will have to revise your snow totals for the winter, as you will be way low.

But again, that is if you believe the models. I will stick with the GRC/SMCv.2.

Its a game of chicken between the models and the cycles. Game on.
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Scott,

Will any of it come through?

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Gary - Interesting on the 18z fantasy part of the GFS (after Dec 10th or so, and into the 23rd time frame) Bland before, but the the waves get really lively - if the two cut-off lows spun up exactly as indicated tonight, well, someone would get snow. Even without Arctic air, those beneath the core would get buried!!! And again, IF the fantasy GFS plays out, that would be southern Missouri, northeast Oklahoma.

But who knows this far out?
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Storm Dog,

We just have to take it one day at a time.

Gary

Dog

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Watching the pattern, lets keep our eye's near xmas. Last time we had a closed low over Northern ARk in Nov. 40ish days later could be interesting
Doug Heady
Chief Met.
Koamtv
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Doug,

You would think something bigger and different could happen, but for some reason so far, this season when it repeats it is almost the same. Come on!

Gary

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Gary,

I hav a question for you. Why is it that most of the other staions(one in particular) say that we arre going into a very calm and dry period, with no storm systems showing up? Dont they kno about your theory? This is what sets you and your weather team above and beyond everybody else! You and your weather team are simply the BEST. I just love your enthusiasm about the weather.
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Andy,

Thanks. I don't really even want to know what the others are saying. I do know, though, that the week before our ice storm and snow storm happened that the others were saying there was no chance of any cold or snow until well after Christmas. Then, they claim victory on last weeks weather. How's that?

Anyway, let's don't go into this at all. Thank you for the kind comments and let's just not be influenced by the others.

Gary

Andy

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Some of the blog replies above make me smile. 1. Somewhere shortly after the 10th [Dog's blog] something showing up. Of course. The SMCv.2 has been showing that for over a week. LOL. 2. Watch out for Christmas [Doug's Blog]...again, SMCv2. verified in a previous blog.

Activity between 10th-15th, dead again until the 25th.
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Scott,

A split is trying to form. But, the flow is still refusing to block up. WE NEED A BLOCK! But, it likely will have a hard time. Looking at this pattern in October you can see the progressive flow with potential though.

Gary

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Hey Gary,

Do you have a recommendation for a wireless weather station? I.E. a sensor you could put outside and have all the statistics on an indoor panel to read? I got one as a gift a couple years ago but I think the temp is off a few degrees and it doesn't have all the functionality that I'd like to have. Do you have anything at your house?

Thanks,
Tim in GW
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Tim,

I do not have a weather station at home. The best thermometer I ever had was the extremely accurate Nimbus thermometer (mine stopped working a few months ago after 8 years). I don't think the company that made those exists any more. Other than this I haven't had a good experience with other instruments. I have a very nice plastic rain gauge (11 inch capacity) and this works well for me. I need a new thermometer, but I don't have a recommendation right now. Maybe some of our bloggers have an idea on this.

Gary

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Whatever the exact cycle length is, we should expect a prolonged stretch of dry weather. After all, before the precip at the end of November, we went for a long stretch with very little precip. That dry spell should repeat, shouldn't it?
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Rob,

Not necessarily! The same pattern WILL produce different results each time through the cycle. Right down the middle of that long dry spell there was a strong storm that blasted southern Kansas, southern Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas. We got nothing, but maybe the next time through that storm will act a bit differently.

Gary

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Not much going on in St. Joe today weatherwise. The GFS is still wishy-washy on that "storm" for next week, the NAM doesn't look much better for what I can tell, although for what it's worth the Canadian model looks like it forms a nice storm out of it (at least for now:)).
I have another question about the GRC, we think, from previous blogs, that the Hurricanes in the Atlantic may play a part in the breaking down of the GRC, BUT the GRC covers the whole northern hemisphere, so what about the Pacific Typhoons that go on well after the GRC has established itself? One would think that these typhoons(assuming the GRC dosen't start controlling them somehow) would TRY to break up the GRC by throwing their energy up towards the north?
We know that they don't break up the GRC, which is very intresting, so then maybe there is something or things that hold the GRC together that we haven't discovered yet?
thanks for your time,sorry I coulden't get that idea shorter.
Nick(still pondering) in St. Joe!
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Nick,

The GRC is not influenced by the hurricanes or typhoons as they just get absorbed in the upper level flow. We are cycling now and there will be some boring parts of this cycle for us and some exciting moments. We are close to figuring this pattern out. It has been a tough task thus far.

Gary

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In your train of thought, I have my own pattern I follow for all seasons.
It has been my observation and research that notes that major storms occur in close vicinity to the full moon cycle. Ever realize how bright it is at night after a major snowstorm? It even verifies in spring; the past few years we have had towns devastated by tornadoes in Western Illinois and after the storms past through, there is an eerie full moon shining, illuminating the damaged areas. During the full moon cycle to the new moon, we see usually calm, tranquil weather. The period between the new moon and the next full moon is usually active.
So, to further illustrate: Last week, right after the snowstorm, we had our full moon. The next two weeks seem pretty quiet with a zonal pattern. But, after the 20th, expect things to get active again, with the BIG storm right around the new year. Last piece of evidence: New Year's Storm - 1999. Full Moon - January 2nd. 14" of heavy snow in WC Illinois. It's a good pattern!
Enjoy the warm times! It'll get cold again!!!
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Brent,

I will need some more information on our other snowstorms to see if we were in a full moon or a new moon phase.

Gary

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A comment on the Nimbus Digital thermometers (you mentioned about a month ago.) They were made by Sensor Instruments Company in Concord NH, and the company has since re-invented itself as Sensatronics and is located in Bow NH, just a few miles further south of its original office. Their web site is www.sensatronics.com and it makes no mention of the Nimbus instruments, but they do sell many familiar-looking sensors. It appears that their focus as a company is now on temperature and humidity sensors for network centers, medical facilities, and food storage. Their phone number is listed as (603) 224-0167 and it may be worth checking to see if they'd still repair one of the old Nimbus units.
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Mike,

Thank you for the information. I have tried to find them. I will look them up today. These are the best and most accurate weather instruments I have experienced.

Gary