***************
Gary:

Bear with me here as this may be a bit long winded-what else is new huh???!!!

This was/is quite a storm and I'm not sure if the models really know where it is exactly going to track. I have to admit that my heart ached for snow lovers in Western Kansas as they got dry slotted and even had some warm air advect into the upper levels-gee, where have I seen that happen before???

You sounded kind of bumbed in this blog entry-to be sure, things don't look great for a sustained long duration bout of winter (GFS and Euro aside!!)-but, hey, one good event and all is good-one of the reasons I am so obsessed with snow and cold, is that it is not easy to get it here-you can garuntee that the summer will be hot-you can garuntee that we will have thunderstorms and even 1-2 severe weather events-you can not garuntee that we will have a snow storm or an arctic out break during the winter months-cold and snow are rare events for here. To be honest, we have had one great event-it just didn't work out for the whole area-we have had several freezes this Fall (maybe much of that was due to how dry it was and radioational cooling etc.) and now, we have had 2 good rain events with in 2 weeks of each other-has been awhile since we have had moisture ridden storms w/in two weeks of each other. Again, when the cycle comes back to active and if it comes together right and we get the big storm, that is what people will remember-not the 5 weeks (over the course of the winter) of record type warmth-it only takes 1-2 good events to make a winter here (I do think in the next 5 years we will have a winter the is overall below average-well, maybe before I turn 70 lol!!!) at least for me-there are too many things that have to be perfect to get a huge dump that it is hard to get more than 2 a season.

Second Point I've pondered: Your cycle theory-I really have not got a handle on how to work it accept for trying to remember weather at certain times and then looking at the indices to see what is happening-if you look, when we had our cold spells and storminess, the AO, EPO, and PNA were in a good state to give us active weather-currently, they could not be worse-I mean the AO is through the roof-thus YellowKnife in the NWT is almost 15 degrees above average-not good for arctic outbreaks!! I don't trust the models beyond day 5 (if that) because they seem to have data in them that the AO will go negative-but the reality is that it has not-however, it is the only guide we have and it does appear that the AO and EPO will begin to drop after the first of Jan.-and when is the cycle supposed to get active again??? Your theory is outstanding-Of course it does not garuntee a massive snow arctic cold Day After Tomorrow type scenario-but it is an awesome guide/tool to help guage where the sensible weather may be heading. It can also help you not be a "modle hugger"-and sure, we can get a good storm when things aren't right-the whole 40 day cycle had events that could translate to different events at specific times-however, when trying to do a 7 day forcast this theory sure is a great help in not having to flip flop every day. I will say it again-too bad you don't have time to publish this-I know you had to put in an incredible amount of work to figure it out-you should reap the rewards (I know having a great forecast record and keeping people informed is a fantastic reward, but you should be rewarded among your peers!!!!)

I am sorry this so long winded and I surely don't expect you to put this up, but after watching the models so much and having so much trouble with this pattern, I had to say that your theory is so good and why I think it is. Also, I didn't want you to be so bummed-if we get two more good events, in the next 2 months, this will be a good winter!!

Enjoy the next two days off-you deserve it and have a safe and happy Christmas!!! It could still snow on Christmas-we may not be in the most active part of the cycle and the indicees may be horrible, but you only need one low to track just right...(and going against what I said-the Euro has trended back North..) Have a great day and again-thanks so much for listening to my long winded stuff!!!! You and your team are great!!
----------------------
Bill,

The problem is.....I have very few peers that I have been able to convince of my theory, but I do know some of them are using it whether they know it or not. I have some great friends in Colorado, by the way they just experienced 25 inches of snow, who are meteorologists and very smart ones. They are so skeptical of my theory but are slowly coming around to it. This has been frustrating. I will keep working on it. I know what I have to do to get to that next level of credibility and I may get a grad student to help me with graphing the data.

Anyway, I am not one who believes all of these PNA, AO, etc. have the major impacts. Just like El Nino, they may influence the pattern, but something much bigger is going on. And, I just may figure it out in the next few years.

Gary

*********************
Hi Gary, enjoy a couple of days off. One of the things that seems to be missing is the "small" storms. The ones where the heaviest bands of snow are 2-4 or 3-6 inches. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's what it feels like. My gut tells me that one of these monster storms is going to, but that might be it for the year.
-----------------------
Snowlover,

I know what you mean. Where are the 1 to 3 inchers. This season only has the big storms or nothing. I thought that we would have a chance of some Alberta clipper type systems when the Great Lakes upper low returned. But, the Great Lakes low on the second cycle was dysfunctional and thus there were no clippers.

Gary

***********************
Can you please explain your theory a little bit. I went back to November 11th which is 40 days from today and at that time there was trough in (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getuadata.spc?MyDate1=061111&Time1=12&MyDate2=&Time2=12&Align=V&Levels=500over)
the central U.S whereas the system that is affecting the U.S. today is a closed low AOB eastern CO. How are those similar enough for you to say it's a pattern and your theory is correct?
------------------------
Susan,

This is where it becomes very complex and hard to explain. If you live and breath the weather pattern every day the way we do and look for the patterns, then you will see it. The weather pattern may look a bit different 40 days ago, but it is really just cycling through right on schedule. There is more amplification this time through and this storm system is certainly very different than the little trough that swung through the plains 40 days ago, but overall if you watch the 5 days before and the 5 days coming up the similarities are amazing. This is why I say that we will get different specific results each time through the cycle.

Gary

************
Gary,
Have a nice time off, get some rest.
Does your latest blog indicate a change in your overall Winter forecast? It appears to be gently advising us snowlovers that we are about to pull the plug on yet another winter in Kansas City with disapointing possibility's for snow of any kind. I maybe reading between the lines but this latest blog from you sounds like we are over before we even begin. Was anyone forecasting the big Denver storm weeks or months ago?
--------------------
Keith,

When I made the winter forecast I thought Colorado would get blasted by a couple of these storm systems, but more likely in February and March. Well, they got one.

I am not going to change the winter forecast. We could very well still see two or three major winter storms that may dump some snow. My initial forecast may have been too cold through the Great Lakes, but otherwise let's just stick with it. Of course I want it to be exactly right, but let's be realistic. It is a long range forecast and the chance of it even being close to accurate is possible, but unlikely. To me, the most important thing is the weather pattern. Is it cycling like my theory states? And, I firmly believe it is, and the main features are where I thought they would be. This is very close to being a very exciting weather pattern. Let's see what happens on the third cycle. It may suddenly start producing. It is amazing I say that because we just had a producing storm system, but it just wasn't wintery for us.

Gary

*****************
Gary you deserve the time off. So it sounds like our winter though unique will still be disappointing. I guess I am fortunate to have grown up in the 50' and 60's when winter was winter. But I know that within your theory those times were unique. It just seems that old El Nino feature has really been "influencing" our winters more over the past 30 years. I feel sorry for the youth growing up that may never experience winters like we once had. Let's still hope for some action in January and February. Within the cycle is there ever a change of something strange happening such as a unexpected burst of cold air? Thanks for your solid work. Michael/Topeka
---------------------
Michael,

We are in the second cycle right now. And, the cold part of the cycle should return in January, then again in late February, so don't give up yet.

Gary

****************
Gary,

Just giving you a rain total at my house in Grain Valley, 1.20 inches.

Enjoy your blog and appreciate you love and enthusiam for weather and being the best in town!!

Jeff

**************
Hello Gary,
You do think we will have any accumulations by tomorrow morning? Any travel problems?
Thanks
Anne
-----------------
Anne,

No travel problems unless you are heading to Colorado. And, no snow here.

Gary

**********************
Gary, you have to pace yourself. Sheesh.

Save up you energy for the 4th and the 10th. You will need it.

;-)
-----------------------
Scott,

I am relaxing today. That was one big storm. I am happy with it. I just hate waiting 3 weeks in between storm systems.

Gary

***********************
Gary,

I am kind of a weather newbie, but I have been reading your blog frequently, and am trying to figure out your weather theory. My question is about what may happen 40 days from yesterday/today (January 29/30th). Since we had this large storm, even though the cold air was not here to bring snow, what are the chances of having another large storm then? (Hopefully with snow next time)

Thanks,
Matt
---------------------
Matt,

There certainly will be a chance. But, the next time through the cycle the storm may be weaker. Maybe there will be colder air in place the next time through.

Gary

*******************
Gary

Just noticed that it looks like we possibly will have some form of wet weather tomorrow (Friday). We are supposed to be traveling west to Central KS (Great Bend) and wondering whether we will be seeing any winter precipitation. If so, when would be the best time for travel. Also, we are supposed to return on Monday, what does it look like for then? Love your weather forecast. I tell everyone how accurate you are.
------------------------
Lisa,

Thanks for spreading the word on our accuracy. It looks dry for tonight and Friday with maybe a shower near the Iowa border.

Gary

***************
I'm interested in how this winter setup can or will affect the spring storm/tornado setup?
------------------
Tracey,

More on the spring soon. Let's start winter first.

Gary

*********************
Gary,
It still amazes me that KCI has still not seen 1 inch of snow along with many other cities. I am hoping for a pattern shift soon in the models that will slow down the Pacific flow. However, I have a feeling we will get some snow around here the first couple weeks of January. If nothing happens by the first few weeks in January winter might as well be canceled.
Devin
-----------------------
Devin,

I agree. The first two weeks of January are a huge test for the winter.

Gary

***************
Don't get too down, Gary. The weather is what it is, and right now, this is winter in Kansas City. Mild overall, with intense bursts of cold that don't last that long. Let's just hope we get enough moisture (rain or snow) along the way.
-------------------
Rob,

This is the good thing so far. We have had some nice rain since November 27th!

Gary

******************
Gary,

Rainfall total for Mclouth from my wireless raingauge 1.53 inches. I was just out enjoying the eye of the hurricane, its really nice out. Still waiting on the first flake though. Enjoy your days off!
------------------
Brett,

Thanks!

Gary

*****************
Hello Mr. Lezak,
Is there any chance at all of seeing a few snowflakes up in leavenworth tonight or tomorrow. Or will the precip only fall as rain? Is the low tracking to far to the north?
-------------------
Ben,

It looks like there is no chance of any precipitation near by tonight.

Gary

*****************
Gary,

Remember me? The reason we AREN'T getting snow. So far my theory is holding up. Where I am, snow ISN'T. Did I mention we moved here from Colorado last year? Hmmmm...

Have a restful time off and Merry Christmas!

Janine
----------------------
Janine,

When are you going on vacation? Maybe it will snow then.

Gary

*****************
Gary (and any other snow lovers),

My brother, who lives in Lakewood, CO, keeps sending me pics of the snow. I love/hate it! Love to see it...hate that it isn't here. The latest was a yardstick buried up to the 26" mark.

I need to move to a city that (1) gets more snow and (2) occasionally has a football team that makes it to the playoffs and actually wins a playoff game or two...sorry different subject.
--------------------------
Jay,

The Chiefs may make the playoffs in the next decade.

Gary

Enjoy your days off, Gary!

Jay C.

**************
Gary:

If anybody can figure out the bigger picture, it is you and your team!!!! Keep up the excellent work-interesting that the models are trying to throw some twists into next week...something to look at anyways!!! The Euro and GFS 12Z at 10 days could not be further from each other-night and day!!! Here's to everyone at KSHB weather team to have a great and happy Christmas-at least it will feel seasonal!!! Take care
------------------
Bill,

And now the GFS has the twists and the European model doesn't. It could get very exciting soon.

Gary

*********
Hey Gary,
Am I to assume that my Mardi gras getaway in St. Louis could possibly be a very COLD one? I have been in the past years and they are hit and miss on either nice weather or very cold ones. From what I saw in your latest blog you seem to think that it may be a cold one around the date I will be there come Feb 16 and 17th. Let me know when you get a chance. Thanks.
Jody
----------------
Jody,

Whenever we talk that far out about specifics you must realize it could move around by around 5 to 7 days easily. So, don't worry and let's see how it looks as we get closer.

Gary

***************
Gary, I have to share I have similar thoughts as what Bill expressed above. I do not rely as much on these as expressed, but think there is a tie more than what you believe. I will quantify this in more abstract terms as I do not have the raw data or my own grad asst to prove it out.

I am a firm believer of both mini and macro relationships that shape our weather patterns. The GRC goes along way in tying some of this together. I do not think the GRC is stand alone, however. Much like the SMC [in my opinion] tied some of the mini cycles within the GRC, I believe the GRC ties to something greater. Much as I believe that the transfer of the energy to the poles during the summer months affects the subsequent Winter and Spring, I believe that the GRC ties to these other oscillations. How, how much, when, and why...don't know yet. Just judging on how everything is interrelated...I dont think its valid to catagorically through out other potential ties.

Just me....
-------------------
Scott,

I simplify things a lot so it is easier to enjoy the weather that happens. It is more complex and I need to do more research. But, the GRC happens and this year still has potential for some big exciting storm systems.

Gary

************
Gary,unless you were between Lee's Summit and I-44, (which were only miles off from 87"), I belive we're still in the 87' pattern. Although I admit, it's fading. If this pattern continues, then we should have a cold wave for at least a week around Jan. 4th. No snow again until early February.
GaryB
-----------------------
Gary,

There may be some siliarities, but I can tell you with 100% confidence it is also VERY different than the '87-'88 pattern.

Gary

*****************
Hey Gary,

Ever since I moved here last March from Fairbanks, Alaska I have kept an almost daily watch on the weather there. The last snowstorm that hit here in KC was a few days after the big cold snap (-40F) ended in Fairbanks and the Yukon Territory right about Thanksgiving and the arctic air surged south toward us. Dont look now, but it would appear as though there is a pretty nice size bit of cold air building up in Alaska. Temps are forecast to be -30F or colder Christmas night. Maybe that will hep the snow maker get going here in KC and start the New Year off right!!
-------------
Ken,

It is getting very cold up there just like it did in November before it headed our way. It will be fun to watch.

Gary

**********
The storm over central Kansas has began to produce rain around St. Joseph

This storm looks like a hurricane over land
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

What are the chances of seeing rain tonight?
------------------------
Well,

It rained so the chances were pretty good.

Gary

*******************
Gary just corious, how much rain did Western Kansas get?
-------------------
Alden,

Western Kansas had widespread 1 to 2 inch liquid totals. That is amazing for this time of the year out there.

Gary

****************
Gary (or whomever is there),

I was wondering what sucked the moisture away from the low passing over the area. We were talking significant precipitation in the area and now nothing. It's depressing.
----------------------
Shawn,

I don't know what you are talking about. It did end up raining overnight. We did have widespread rainfall before this, so what are you talking about. This storm did exactly what we thought it would do. Don't be depressed. There was some hope for rain or snow as the storm came through early today and IT HAPPENED.

Gary

***************
Gary & Jeremy

Woke up this morning to just over .05" of rain in the gauge -- I guess we got a trace overnight from the Low pressure system passing thru?

Tim in GW
----------------------
Tim,

You got much more than a trace. 0.05" is a nice little rain from the upper low passing near by.

Gary