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Jeff:

Sorry to bother you again-just ask Gary-I'm the long winded guy from Lawrence!!!!

I did some research last night of the 500 ht charts back to late October-you can see from then through now how the Pacific flow gets blocked and really see the cycle-beginning about 10-25 the block began to form-and we had that real cold Halloween and a couple of days afterwards-then about 11-23 the beginnings of the block shows up again and by 11-27 we are in that 8-9 day cold spell-of course the exact surfacve conditions were different-more cold air in Canada, nino a bit stronger etc so results were a bit more amplified-now, models are forecasting the block to begin right around New Years day-right on schedule-it took about 3-5 days for it to really influence the weather each time and that looks to be what the models are showing-I'm not sure if I am even close to being on the right track with this, but I think it is really cool/amazing to see this block begin to develop in the same trime frame for the past 2 and looks like 3 months!! Awesome stuff!!

Beginning to see peaks of sun here in Lawrence-looking forward to round two and the RUC really shows this second wave quite well. Thanks for reading and have a great day!!!

Bill,

It will be interesting to see if subsequent GFS runs still show this blocking up. I imagine it will. It means we have something to look forward to in about 10-15 days.

By the way, you are on the right track.

Jeff

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.45" here in Greenwood -- looking like we fell in the range of precip for wave 1.

Tim in GW

Tim,

You will probably end up with amounts around 1" before round #2 ends about 10 PM. Let us know your total.

Thanks,

Jeff

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Hello Jeff,
Last night Gary said MAYBE a dusting Sun night into Monday, what is the new data saying about this?
Thank you for your time
Anne

Anne,

The chance of a dusting is low, but the chance of seeing snowflakes is fairly high. Hopefully, in 10-15 days we will see a real snowstorm!

Jeff

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Jeff,
I am liking what I see on the 12Z GFS. The potential for very strong ridging continues to exist in the Eastern Pacific, gradually shifting north over time. Hopefully, we can get a 1040-1050mb arctic high to develop and move down with the potential for storminess in the January 10-20 time period. I have a feeling this pattern will give us some decent snows in January, with the colder air around. Hopefully, these model trends will continue.
Devin

Devin,

I am willing to bet the GFS is on the right track. Do not be surprised if there are some flaky runs the next 3-5 days. I hope this tall eastern Pacific ridging can get winter going!

Jeff

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Jeff,

Looking at the most recent satellite and radar, the low seems to be digging further south than forecasted...am I reading this right?

Brad

Brad,

It is pretty far south. However, during the next 18 hours it will undergo a transition that pulls it north. By noon tomorrow it will be in Iowa. Hard to believe. This is not a normal track.

Jeff

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This is another cool looking storm on radar and satellite imagery! and here we go again the rain is already increasing on radar!
BTW, is that actually an AVERAGE high I see on the 7 day?!?:)
If we do get some snow showers it would be a great way to finish off the year and start the new one!
Nick(in wet) St. Joe!

Nick,

I know sometimes we go years without seeing a well formed comma cloud in the middle of the country. This is our second one in 2 weeks. A few snowflakes at midnight Sunday could be a good omen!

Jeff

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Hi Jeff
Here is west central Mn. it is now raining at 1:00pm central time. I also looked at the latest rain projections for our area and it looks to be in the .75-1.00 inch total. This is indeed a welcome sight. I won't have to shovel it either. I wouldn't mind though to get some snow the next go round. I check your site everyday and like the response you get from the viewers to.

Rod,

I was talking with Gary and it is pretty odd for Minnesota to be having a rainstorm in December with the upper low in Oklahoma. I am sure you will have your snow before this winter is over.

Jeff

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Jeff/Gary..I have been pretty quiet lately as I have been researching to find more detail in the LRC. I think I have stumbled across something that is very meaningful. I like the normal models, but have found this particular one very helpful. This is the polar view of the GFS and shows the 145 ridge nicely when it builds in strong, as well as shows the overall pattern that is cycling around. I love this view!

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/animatez/5nh_animate.html

This really helps see when the Pacific ridge builds, and you can see the vorts ride it like a roller coaster into the 4 corners. It also shows the polar air and where it is hiding....

Pretty cool.

Scott,

I agree it is pretty neat!

Jeff

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Dear Weather Team,

There are a few concerns that I would like to ask you guys about. This winter so far looks to me like it has been and will continue to be above average on temperatures and below average on precipitation. Do to what has happened so far this winter, has this brought down your snowfall forecast for the rest of the winter? Or will it become much, much colder as we go into late January into March? I hope so because so far this winter has kinda stunk! MAKE IT COLDER AND SNOWIER!!!

Jacob Honeycutt

Jacob,

Actually we have been rather wet the last 30 days. The problem is it has been too warm for snow. In 10-20 days it is looking like we will see Arctic air with 1-2 chance of snow, this would repeat again around February 25th. Also, these warm storms we have had the next time around may give us wet snow. So, even if the winter ends up warmer than we thought, we could still easily get our 25".

Jeff

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What happened to Jamie?

Mike,

Jamie decided to go back home to Dayton. She is wanting to start a family in the future and she wanted to be by her parents. She got her old job back and is doing well.

Jeff

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Hi Jeff: Glad to read your blog, for it looked like we were getting dry-slotted for the second time today, after our desultory bout of light showers/mist/drizzle from forenoon through 1530. Hope the second round produces for Blue Springs.

Before this, I was comparing this storm to that of the food advertisements for fast-food places showing thick, juicy and tantalizing ground beef-steak patties, pink in the center, fragrant with every good spice, nesteled (sic) between lightly toasted buns, the freshest, verdant lettuce, and brightest tomatoes, compared to the flat, dry, bland sandwiches actually received, limp lettuce, squishy tomatoes and all. Below is an excerpt from my weather notes on this storm for today:

"By the time we awoke, skies were overcast, but no rain was falling, with temperatures mild – mid-50s F. For the rest of the day, thru 1500, only some light rain and drizzle, most unimpressing – the lion’s share south and west of our area from this storm. Too much easterly wind, too much drier boundary-layer air preventing early saturation, too many dry-slots around the huge upper-low, hence, a bit of a disappointment. Still better something than nothing."

Later,
Dog

Dog,

We should still get another .25"-.50" before this is over, so most areas will receive .75" to 1.25". This is not bad for a December rainfall event as we average 1.64" for the whole month.

Also, do not worry, with the ridge persistently at 140 west, amplified or not, we should see regular storm systems.

Jeff

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I dont know what the thinking is today. But in the blog last night it said cold air would rush in behind the storm. Does this now give us the potential of snow and does the track of the storm now have more influence in snow.

Daniel,

Cold air will rush in Sunday afternoon. However, the storm system will be in Iowa. So, we will be on the southern edge of wrap around precipitation tomorrow night. This means we may see some snow showers with no accumulation.

In order for us to get a decent snowstorm, the storm needs to track across northern Oklahoma to far nortthwest Arkansas, near Harrison.

Jeff

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Another SNOW STORM bites the dust, but the forecast was right on...

Hey guys, wow..we just missed out on some major snow. If this storm would have been further south, and it would have been about 25 degrees cooler, we might have had a good snow storm (that is why I said another SNOW STORM bites the dust.) Still, we did get some well needed rain.

Now, based your theory (which I think is the best I have heard of) I also beleive that our next time for snow will be mid Jan. IT should be interesting to see.

Here is something that I read, and I think is right on...

"The ongoing El Nino episode may be near peak; witness the cooling of the Pacific Ocean near Malaysia and Indonesia. Waters in the Gulf of Alaska are warming on one end (oceanward) and cooling in the other (near shore), so PDO measures may not really be viable. A scenario of occasional +PNA incursions and sometimes vigorous southern branch jet stream development seem likely. This means that rather than widespread mild or warm weather across the lower 48 states, we would have to expect at least some intrusions of cold air to the right of any mP regimes or build-ups of ridging."

"The astounding pattern seen all across the Northern Hemisphere has been the relative ease with which midlatitude cyclones have been able to tap deep tropical (i.e. equatorial) moisture. While the aforementioned +ENSO association helps this condition in the U.S., notice that the intake of higher dewpoints continues even as the deep storms move north and east. Unless this moist advection occurrence eases or ends during the winter, there will be cases of high precipitable water with colder air, a sure formula for snow and ice within cold and overrunning sectors of cyclones."

That was from a forecaster out east. Is this kind of with the theory that you folks have? I just wish the NWS would quit hyping El Nino. They seem to blame it for everything that happens, and I am not so sure that is the case, what do you think?

Have a wonderful New Years!

Brian
Overland Park
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Brian,

A lot of what has been happening would have likely happened whether there was an El Nino or not. El Nino hasn't caused any of these storm systems.

Anyway, we may see snowflakes today!

Gary

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Bill, I am curious about what you have found. I have had a hunch of this, but hadn't done the homework yet. Nice work..I will confirm, but it sounds right. If so...every 40 days, we should have one strong ridge giving us some nice N/S movement. This is about a week. The rest of the time, I have to watch the ridge. Because of where this ridge is, I am really beginning to wonder about the Nino impact. I think in reading your thoughts, I can tie in what Devin has been thinking regarding the Nino effect.

Maybe I am crazy..but...if Nino is warmer than usual water of the coast of Columbia reaching out west, then this warmth should cause more evaporation, thus cause a low pressure center. If that is the case, then in equalization, the ridge we are discussing may be in result of that persistent low, and flux with the low created from the Nino.

Seem plausible?

Anyway..hope I got this in before Gary destroys it. LOL
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Scott,

The 145 west ridge has NOTHING to do with El Nino. It has everything to do with the LRC. The next time we have an El Nino, the ridge will be somewhere else. It just so happens to be where it is this season. This is why even though it is El Nino Los Angeles has been having a dry season, thus far. And, this is why I say El Nino, and the other ocean anamolies, only influence the pattern. They don't create it!

Gary

Best Station in the KC area. You all were the only that kept the mix bag of precipation on Sunday unlike the others including the The Weather Channel! Great job! Congrats

Tim

Jeff:

We are close to a half inch here in SW Lawrence-still dripping a little bit-latest temp. map is interesting to look at-30's are not that far away at all!!!!

It lools like the 0z models want to take ULL a bit further south than yesterdays and look so close to giving this area a dusting of snow-but yet so far away!!! Looks like maybe Manhattan, Kansas may pick up an inch or two possibly??? Not sure with the warm ground and did not look at soundings. Always fun to keep looking as some times the weather puts a small twist on things-it does look better that we will see some flakes at least falling from the sky tomorrow and tomorrow night-I'll take it!!!

Thanks for the response earlier and have a great night and Happy New Year!!!

It's almost 2 a.m. and it is still raining with the last significant band still moving over us, looks like it was a bit slower in dry-slotting us than first thought, EXELLENT!
the 0Z run of the GFS still gives us our snow showers and a good northerly wind to go with it, well that's the overnight update:)
Nick in (rainy) St. Joe!

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Jeff:

Good Morning!! Winds have shifted to the Northwest and you can feel a little bite in the air!! Looks like there will be a small band of heavier snow develop from say Omaha down in North Central Kansas and it will rotate just a tad east before lifting out-so close!!! However, it does look better that we will see some flakes fly here-like I told Gary-keep your sights low here regarding winter and you won't be too disappointed-Over the past years I have seen too many busts to not be a realist!!! (That includes the wonderfull 70's!!!!)

I noticed this morning that many of the models and ensembles have backed off somewhat on the colder air in the 10-15 day range. To me, this is where the LRC really shows itself-(I also must emphasize again that this is just a great theory/discovery on all your parts!!)instead of jumping on and off of every model run (esp. the gfs which runs 4 times a day-talk about peeks and valleys!!!) the LRC shows that sometime around the 10th-give or take a few days-a block will begin to form in the Pacific-it has happened the past two months (I would bet the same thing happened in September) and will happen again-this does not mean we will have a massive snow storm or any snow at all-but it shows there will be a pattern set up that gives us the chance at winter weather-while the last 2 have been pretty transient, we can hope that this time it sets up longer thus increasing our chances.

Sorry again to babble, but I just think the LRC is really an awesome tool (and I must say, I will never ever be able to find the pattern-that is where the skill of you, Gary, and the team come in) and once I have been shown the pattern it is great to use-it sure beats looking at every 240 hr run of the GFS and Euro hoping it hasn't flopped back or looking at the 10 day AO/PNA/EPO forecast!!! I firmly believe that by the 8th or so, the block will begin to show up in the real weather-from there, it is just wait and see how this cycle evolves.

Thanks again for reading-and major kudos and thanks for researching the LRC and then sharing the ideas on this blog-not many mets would share this idea or more so explain it in such detail on a public blog!!! Have a great day!!!
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Great observations Bill,

And, this is where the LRC works. We are almost certain that the cold is coming back, and in a similar way to how it happened 40 days ago. The models flip flop, but it gives you confidence that when it doesn't fit then you can just throw it away.

So, we know it will get cold, but just like the last time it probably won't completely lock up. I hope it does, because then we could have two weeks of winter and not just a few days.

The big problem with the LRC is that it is still just a theory. We don't know why it happens, but because we are nearly 100% certain it does it helps us. But, it is still scary as sometimes only a slight difference and you get completely different results on the ground and then I have to explain, even though I KNOW it is the same pattern.

Gary

Oh my I just went outside and the temp has fallen at least 15 degrees since last night the temp is only 42 and falling fast. the snow seems to be increasing on radar.

Temps down into the 30's and Heavy snow falling aroung salina KS and they have already had 3 inches. Is their a chance we could see that much?

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Jeff:

I just realized that I addressed you by the wrong name on my last blog-I am very sorry for that-had my mind on two different things!!! So sorry.

By the way, the 12Z runs are looking better for us to for sure see some flakes-even the 12Z RUC brings more moisture in the wrap around-looks like some places to our North and West could actually see a dusting or more on grassy surfaces-the trend is interesting-wonder what the 12Z GFS will show-for sure trending in the right direction-I'm already down to 38 so the temp. is heading in the right direction!!!

Once again, sorry for the name snafu-I feel like a heelius maximus!!! Have a great New Years!!
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Bill,

We don't even see where you made the mistake. But, don't worry about it.

At this moment I think it is going to snow, let's see how we feel in two hours.

Gary