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 December 4, 2006

Weather pattern and bloggers meeting

gfs ridgy.gif
Click to enlarge

Good morning,

Everything calms down this week after an exciting period of weather. The above map shows the upper level flow forecast for Wednesday night. We will have another cold front, but at this moment there is not a storm in sight. We are still figuring out this pattern we are in and I will have a lot more on it later in the week to see if we have come up with our initial impression of what the cycle is and how the pattern may evolve and produce weeks down the road. In the mean time I welcome the, hopefully, small break in the exciting weather.

We have decided to have a meeting of the bloggers in early January, probably January 4th. I would have time to put a presentation together to show my theory and a few other things. I will try to have our entire weather team there for you to meet. My boss has told me that it would have to be a limited amount of people so for this first meeting we will have special invites via email. If you are interested then you must email us at the following email address: weather@nbcactionnews.com

Have a great week!

Gary


Posted by at December 4, 2006 7:09 AM

Comments

***************************
I remember you saying early on you thought we would have a snow before the end of November. So, congrats on that prediction. I am not sure what date you mentioned that on. You predicted snowfall on December 10. Do you still think there will be snow on that date or around that date?
-----------------------
Ann,

I thought this weather pattern would produce our first snow in November very early in the patterns development. Well, it happened barely on November 30th. I don't see our next chance at this moment. So, my December 10 prediction is looking less likely. There is a little storm we have to watch for Sunday though.

Thanks for remembering.

Gary

Posted by: Ann at December 4, 2006 7:33 AM

********************
Hey Gary sorry about the late report we got 14 inches down here in Appleton City. It was amazing at 11 pm we had 5 inches and i think the snow stopped around 2:30 am. That is 9 inches of snow in 3 and a half hours! I am not sure about the time the snow stopped so if you could verify that thanks. I would love to go to that meeting. I dont have a computer at home at the moment. Im getting it fixed, so im here at school and i cant email when will you pick who is going to go, I can get on our towns library comp and email from that but i wont be able to do that until tomorrow...if there open.
-------------------
Daniel,

Yes, it ended around 2:30 to 3 AM, So the 9 inches must have fallen in that 4 hour window. Wow!

Gary

Posted by: Daniel at December 4, 2006 9:20 AM

********************
Gary,
Perhaps I missed the announcement somewhere, but could you post the Snowflake Contest winner and runner-up and their predictions on the blog?
Thanks!
------------------------
Christa,

We will post it later this week when we have gone through every entry. We have another 2,000 entries to go through today and then we will have them all sorted out.

The first one inch fell by 2:51 PM on November 30th.

Gary

Posted by: Christa at December 4, 2006 9:59 AM

*************
First time blogger ..long time winter weather enthusiast.

Several other stations are predicting a big warm up for the middle of the month. Do you see this as well? I hope not.

Elaine
-------------------
Elaine,

Remember those other stations, that you are talking about, said it would be WARM through December and there was NO chance of any snow until perhaps January. Did you believe them then? So, don't worry yet.

I do see a warm up (we always have ups and downs). But, there is a good chance of it getting stormy again soon. If the latest data is correct then next week gets very interesting.

Gary

Posted by: Elaine Watson at December 4, 2006 11:14 AM

*************
Gary,

What exactly is the Bloggers meeting? Where will it be and what stuff will be talked about? It sounds pretty cool. How many people can come?

Andy
-----------------
Andy,

I don't have an exact amount yet. Let's see how many bloggers are interested first.

We will talk about my theory, NBC Action News, tornadoes, and any questions that anyone has.

Gary

Posted by: Andy at December 4, 2006 12:06 PM

***************
Just remember for the blogger meeting..some of us will be hungry for info..don't let us down! ;-)

As far as next week..I think there will be a warm up, based on the cycle, but maybe not as much as others think. I am not buying next week being too exciting..the SMCv.2 is showing an off week for precip..lets see if it holds. BOOOO to the models! Still looking toward the 10-15th or so.
--------------------------
Scott,

This is why I want the emails. I know you already sent yours in. We will send out the invitations just to make sure we control the amount of people that are here. It will probably be at 7 PM in the evening.

And, we will answer any question you have.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at December 4, 2006 1:57 PM

***********
What time of day should the bloggers meeting be at and where will it be?
-----------------
Charles,

It will probably be around 7 PM. Email me for your invitation.

Gary

Posted by: Charles at December 4, 2006 4:21 PM

**************
I need to know 2 things before I will email you 1. where will it be and 2. Is the fourth the set date or is thet still up in the air I am buzy that night and that satureday would be a better day.
----------------------
Charles,

It will be on the 4th at 7 PM. If you can't make this one we will certainly have another some time.

Gary

Posted by: Charles at December 4, 2006 4:52 PM

****************
Gary:

I would love to come to the bloggers meeting as I would love to meet you and the team in person!! However, being relatively new, I think it only fair to let long time bloggers come since there is a limited number of seats-but I will plan for the next one!!!!

I think the next 2-3 weeks look kind of interesting-sure, we will not be artic cold but to me it deosn't look like we will have 5-6 days in the upper 60's either. With the stj looking to get going, the central and southern plains are always in the game-could be rain of course, (which we still desp. need esp. here in Lawrence)but all it takes is some shallow cold air to invade and you have an ice situation-or enough cold and vola snow!!! The 12Z Euro today is carving out quite the trough comming through mid nest week.
---------------------
Bill,

Send me an email. I am not sure how many bloggers will be able to come.

Gary

Posted by: Bill Gollier at December 4, 2006 4:58 PM

*************
Gary, i know your an amimal lover like me so i thought you shoudl watch this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2BfzUIBy9A

it take a minute to get into it but you will like it for sure.
----------------------
Bradley,

I will try to look at this later on. Thanks for sharing.

Gary

Posted by: bradley thompson at December 4, 2006 5:26 PM

******************
Gary this may sound a bit stupid, but is there a strict AGE limit to the bloggers meeting? And is your theory about the whole year or just for the season.
----------------
Alden,

How old are you? I think if you are a kid and came with your parents it would be fine. But, only if you really love weather.

Gary

Posted by: Alden at December 4, 2006 5:32 PM

*********************
Gary its me once again right after I sent you my first reply. I know this too could sound strange, but on your weather page on the website, have you guys thought of maybe putting FurtureCast on the "Weather Links" side of the weather? And MAYBE put a link also on the page so we can chose wich Skyview camera. That way we can have a look around the city. I've always had many ideas for the website, but know it's your descion and not mine, but it's and idea.
----------------------
Alden,

We may be doing something to our weather site next year. But, I am always open to ideas.

Gary

Posted by: Alden at December 4, 2006 5:38 PM

***************
Gary,
Looking at some of the models it is amazing to see a complete lack of ridging in the Eastern Pacific. The GFS keeps the Pacific Flow rushing into the US with no signs of any cold air after this last cold front. There looks to be more of an El Nino influence now. The anomalies in Canada will likely get quickly out of control with this pattern and some of the snowpack could melt in Southern Canada.
Devin
--------------------------
Devin,

Strange things are going on right now. Let's see what we think in a couple of days. I know I say this a lot, but there is a lot of flow developing in a zonal jet across the Pacific and it could bring some wild changes to our weather.

Gary

Posted by: Devin at December 4, 2006 6:43 PM

***************
Actually Im not that upset that it is not active right now,because if it is active early in the month, then it has time to change before it gets close to Christmas, but if it is quiet now it has time to do the opposite,(more wishful thinking than anything)BTW, I've sent my email!
Nick(still in snow-waiting) in St. Joe!
----------------
Nick,

Thanks, I will be sending out the invitations through email by early next week.

I have concerns about the entire weather pattern, but it will have some moments.

Gary

Posted by: Nick Rau at December 4, 2006 9:09 PM

*********
Nuts! I'll be two days into a major vacation when the blogger meeting takes place. Oh well, I'll think about you guys while I'm out the Caribbean. Like as not, I'll be getting a sunburn whilst KC is going snow-blind. :)
----------
David,

Maybe we should have the meeting somewhere in the Caribbean? Have a great time!

Gary

Posted by: David G at December 4, 2006 11:53 PM

**************
Gary,
I'm looking forward to your meeting. I hope my e-mail got in on the first wave. I have a couple of questions. I know this first one is a ways out, but do you see any shot at a white Christmas?
Also, do you know if there is any chance of your 24-7 weather coverage being picked up by DirecTV at any time in the future.
Thanks!
--------------------
DirecTV isn't picking it up yet. I am not sure of the timetable on this.

A white Christmas? Well, let's see how this pattern cycles during the next two weeks. I don't have any confidence in saying there is a chance at this moment.

Gary

Posted by: Matt P at December 5, 2006 12:07 AM

***************
Gary,
Just to let you know the streaming weather plus is VH1, and did you receive the email I sent you yesterday about the meeting.

Thank You.
David Stevens
---------------------
David,

I am sure I did. I will look for it when I get to work today.

Gary

Posted by: David at December 5, 2006 5:05 AM

*************
Gary, is there a site that you are aware of that archieves 500mb national maps for each day? I know you keep them each day, but do you make them, or do you pull them from somewhere else? I am looking to put together a packet for the SMC/SMCv.2 and this would be helpful. Let me know.

Thanks...
-----------------------
Scott,

I am not sure how big the file is, but I will try to email them too you.

Gary

Posted by: Scott at December 5, 2006 8:55 AM

***********
Gary,
I appreciate your enthusiasm for the weather, and your accuracy. I grew up in KC and have always watched you even when you were in the morning with the other guys... i think we are in for a white christmas.
the bloggers meeting sounds awesome.
later, ryan
-----------------------
Ryan,

Thanks! Next week has some potential.

Gary

Posted by: Ryan McMillian at December 5, 2006 10:48 AM

************
I am a weather enthusist and I just moved from Kansas City to New York. Are there any good weather blogs there? I've checked out Al Roker's blog a couple of times. They had a link there to this holiday challenge that was kind of funny. Here it is if you're interested www.msnholidaychallenge.com
---------------------
Mitch,

I don't know of any other good weather blogs. Thanks for the challenge.

Gary

Posted by: Mitch at December 5, 2006 12:09 PM

***********
What is it looking like for those clipper systems later on in the week/nextweek? We had some stuctural damage in Clinton because of the heavy snow. The roof of a local samartian center caved in. No one was hurt but the roof above the storage area is destoryed. What do we need to say in the e-mail for the meeting.Is there anything specific information you are needing on the email message? I hope we are going to have an active winter season this year!!!
----------------------
John,

I am just sending invitations out to around the first 30 to 40 emails I get. Maybe more.

Gary

Posted by: John Moon III at December 5, 2006 2:30 PM

*************
Gary. Please help me settle a dispute. My husband's birthday is December 21, 1976. He has been told all of his life by his mother that it was the 'coldest day of the year.' Then on Thanksgiving his father stated that it was in the 70's. Thus a long debated started over Thanksgiving dinner. Do you have any idea if there is a record of the temp. that day? It would be greatly appreciated. Keep up the good work.
------------------------
Ivy,

It was 28 for a high on December 21st 1976. And it was 4 for a low. The third lowest low ever on that date at the time.

I couldn't find any records for Thanksgiving that year.

Gary

Posted by: Ivy at December 5, 2006 5:09 PM

 
 

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