Well, all I have to say is LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nick(awaiting the storm) in St. Joe!!!

*****
Hello Gary,
New Idea. This should be my last one for a while. Im really sorry if I have been bugging you with all of these ideas, sorry again if I have. The 9PM part of the blog title got to me. I have sent this before, the answer was "no", but you never no, it could be "yes" this time. Has any one there thought of these times of day for these newscasts;
12:00-12:30 (or 1:00) PM
4:00-4:30 (or 5:00) PM
9:00-9:30 (or 10:00) PM
I would really like to know not only what you would think for all of these times, and what some of the people at KSHB think. I do know that all of them may not be able to be broadcasted on channel 41 but maybe on channel 38. Once again, I would like to know for all, and I'm sorry if I have bothered you with all of these ideas.
By the way, what have you thought of all of the previous ones I've had.
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Alden,

It costs a lot of money to put on any one of those shows you talk about. And, we had one on 38 the spot at 9 PM. It was a fun show with Jaquitta Williams and myself three years ago. No one watche it and it was cancelled. So, goes on the dilemma of having viewers catch on to our way of doing the weather.

Gary

Gary...Thanks for all your and everyone on your team's hard work. Now GO HOME and SLEEP!!! Just kidding!!!!! Thanks again.

****************
Big bust or big storm?

Well, the NWS has downgraded their Winter Storm Watch for most of the area (I cannot understand it, they were forecast 3-6 now they are forecasting 2-5.) I cannot beleive that much has changed in just a few hours, especially based on your latest blog.

Oh well, at least you are forecasting based on your "gut," and "experience." NWS forecasts based on some computer model that always proves to be wrong. :-) I will trust your foreast because this fits with your theory to a T. What cracks me up is that NWS says El Nino is playing an impact on the weather. Then can they explain the cold in CA and in the NW? Based on their winter forecast, it was going to be warmer there! I really wish they would beleive your theorY! There is something to it! Anyway, have a great night!

Brian - Overland Park
-----------------------
Brian,

2 to 5 inches, or 3 to 6 inches..... both are fine forecasts for this storm.

Gary

Weather team,
What do you guys think for Peculiar towards Raymore?
Thanks,
Jeff

WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LOOKS TO BE
ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FIRST FLAKES
OF SNOW LOOK TO ARRIVE IN EASTERN KANSAS VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...WITH INTENSITIES INCREASING DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY AREAWIDE FOR 4 TO 6
INCH ACCUMULATIONS. FEEL THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM
ENTERING A WEAKENING STAGE...ALONG WITH AN IMPRESSIVE FORECAST
MIDLEVEL DRYSLOT...AND ANTICIPATED FAIRLY HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID WATER
RATIOS NEAR 10:1 PRECLUDE A WARNING AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...IMPRESSIVE DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH
ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 130 KT JET
STREAK...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG MIDLEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
WILL LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES. COULD BE SOME
RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND FLURRIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RIGHT
NOW...AM EXPECTING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

Based on what NWS says, this storm could very well be a bust. They are only forecasting 4-6 inches! I hope they coord with you, beacuse I know it is going to be a big storm! I will laugh if we get a foot, and they did not issue a warning. :-) I wish you could do that, because your forecasts are so accurate! Keep up the good job Gary!

Miles

Go sleep Gary. We'll bug you tomorrow. :)

Gary,
Will there be any chance at a dry slot in this storm? If it was slightly colder the snow ratios would be higher as well. This will be a very wet snow. The two positives the storm has going for it are the decent storm track and abundant lift with low level moisture streaming up from the tropics. It sure is good to see a widespread snow for a change.
Devin

******
You're a cool Kat Gary! You make time for all of us here by answering questions, you forecast the weather, and of course you are a dog lover. What else can we weather nuts ask for. I don't know what all the forecasting models and smart mumble jumble you all speak, but as soon as I hear the word SNOW! It puts a smile on my face. I think its one of the creators most beautiful landscapes created on his canvas.

Keep up the good work!!

Mike- Lee's Summit
--------------
Mike,

Thanks, and I am going to bed! We will get to the rest of the comments in the morning.

Gary

************
Gary:

Good evening sir!!! I hope you can get yourself some sleep tonight-I really can't even imagine how hectic your day has been!!! You and the team have done an outstanding job with this and we still have uncertainties with it!!! You know, some day we are going to have a 4 corners low develop with solid cold in place and you can just sit back and enjoy it as the whole I-70 corridor gets dumped on!!! Some day!!

Man, the 0z GFS was kind of a downer as it just popped that ULL North at about 36 hours and really drives that dry slot in on us. The NAM looks wetter I think and both have the colum below freezing for the whole event but now both have it tracking north...rats!!!

While I am excited to see snow of any sort, the optimist in me still holds out hope for a 5-7 inch event-why, I'm not sure as I have kept it in the back of my mind that this event has several problems. Nevertheless, I continue to look for straws to grasp!! At least on infrared satelite loop we already have thicker clouds beginning to stream over us and it appears that the North side is getting good moisture feed as seen over the Oklahoma Pan handle-I don't think much is reaching the ground but at least there are colder cloud tops there-it also looks like on staelite that the bomb in the Maritimes is moving off quicker than the models have progged and that the Low is sort of diving into Mexico-straws, straws, straws that I have prob. made up anyways!!!!

Again, I hope you and the team get some rest tonight-tomorrow will be a big day for sure-I don't even want to see the 06Z runs-the 0z were bummer enough!!!! Hopefully the models have mis intitalized something somwhere in the stream and at some point will bring it back south-I have also thought that second wave would help push this a bit further south but as I continue on through this winter, I realize I need to keep plugging away and keep learning!!! Have a great night!!!!

Bill Gollier
--------------
Bill,

It looks very good. You will be taking the kids sledding on real snow Sunday!

Gary

***************
I find it curious to watch all the different forecasts as a winter storm approaches. One channel on their web site said he should probably upgrade to 4 to 8 inches on his newscast... but chose to downgrade on the air to 2 to 4 with some pockets up to 6. Another forecast up their original amounts up one inch to 3 to 5 inches. Then the other station showed the upper level low going north of KC then decided to up their totals to 4 to 8 inches across a LARGE area of KS and MO.

I look at the NWS web site and they issue a snow advisory which is usually given to a storm producing 1 to 4 inches of snow.....after issuing a Winter Storm Watch warning of 3 to 6 inches of snow. Then in their snow advisory, they say 4 to 6 inches of snow will likely fall... and when you click on specfic cities they had 3 to 7 inches listed as possible accumaltions. They completely contradicts everything they reported in their Watch and Advisory.

You guys are one in a million I tell you. You are the only ones with the guts to tell it the way you really think it is. The other stations just try to put a real general area of snow and keep it safe (usually low ball it) and then make excuses that it might not happen. Thanks for being who you are!!!
---------------
Brian,

Thank you for noticing. This is the kind of thing that happens all of the time and why I stress to our weather team to, #1 be consistent. But, even more importantly, #2 just tell the viewers what we believe will happen. Sometimes I get the bad rap of being too enthusiastic and this gets misunderstood. Anyway, with this storm I made a point to not know what our competition was doing. And, this kept my stress level a bit lower yesterday.

Have a great day! Now, let's get at least 3 inches out of this storm. I think there is a 100% chance of 2", 80% chance of 3 inches, down to a 60% chance of 4 inches, and then only a 40% chance of 5 inches, with a 20% chance of 6 inches or more the way it looks. Jeff may blog with probabilities like this.

Gary

Gary:

Good Morning sir and to the rest of the weather team!!!! We are partly cloudy and about 26 currently but you can feel some moisture in the air!!! As alaways, I must concur with the Blogger above-you and the Action weather team have done a fantastic job explaining this storm. You have stated from the beginning that there are problems with this set up and explained why-thankyou very much!!!

What straw did I grasp this morning??? It looks like on the WV imagery this morning that the upper low is heading more east than North still at this time-it looks to be right along the New Mexico/Mexico border and it may enter the Big Bend area of Texas before it begins heading more North-It also looks like that low in the Maritimes is exiting quickly-my not be an influence on this after all?? I told ya, straws, straws, straws!!! My second straw: mositure is really streaming up here right now and it looks like the North West side will have a great mositure feed. Straw 3: radar returns are showing up in SW Kansas currently-not sure how much is reaching the ground but it is there!!! Straw 4: I can feel the moisture outside so we are becomming somewhat saturated!!!

However, the elephant in the room is still that the models take this thing North of us-the Euro totally losses it and decides to have it take a longer vacation in the SW (I think??-or breaks a big chunk off)I also noticed that the RUC has us at 37 before the precip. starts-so many issues with this!!!!

Oh well-I am happy we will see snow-I have to admit however, that when I saw Oklahoma possibly getting 6-8 or so that I set my mind to wanting 6-7 inches-should have known better-timing was just a bit off this go round. (I will still graps at my straws and hope this winds up a bit further south LOL!!) The Roman soldiers are whispering in my ear as we speak: 6-8 inch snows are fleeting on model ouputs for KC 36 hours before the event!!! Have a great day and good luck to you and the team-all the above side, there is a part of me that would not be surprised if this does not throw a twist at us right at the end (I just hope a twist in the right direction!!!!)

Bill Gollier
-------------------
Bill,

If this were a thunderstorm event and the models were predicting 1/2 inch, you know there would be some pockets of 1 inch amounts. Now, this is more stratiform, but someone will likely have 20 to 25% more snow than others. Why not Lawrence?

Gary

************
Gary:

Sorry to bother you again but as I am sitting here "sternly" talking to the NAM and GFS at 30 hours as they push that ULL low into NW Kansas something smacked me in the back of the head: yea, I am hoping for a twist and get the 6 inches-but, all that aside, this past 14 days have been outstanding for a winter weather enthuisast(sp-again!!) and beat hands down last winter-we have had two storms to track with in a week of each other, had a big one the end of November and those cut offs in December-even if by Thursday we go back to a warmer benin period (haven't looked at won't for a spell)and even with the warm December and early January, this winter has been sooo much better than the last two winters. Just a random thought that I should just chill out and be happy with what we have!!!! But of course, I will back to my straws and look at the 12Z run looking for the twist!!!! Have a great day!!!
-------------------
Bill,

I agree and I was just talking to Jeff Penner about it. If 5 inches falls in Overland Park then this would put this part of the city up to 13 inches for the year. We aren't even half way through yet.

Gary

************
Here is the reason we are not under a winter storm Warning however we are pretty close to a heavy sno warning if not there(the NWS has 3-7 in so we would be one inch in)

SNOW ADVISORY -- A Snow Advisory will be issued when 3-5 inches is expected to fall.

*Check with your NWS office for local snowfall requirements.

BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY -- A Blowing Snow advisory will be posted for events in which visibility is intermittently 1/4 mile or less.

FREEZING RAIN / FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY -- This requires that hazardous driving conditions be taking place and/or up to 1/4 inch of freezing rain on tree branches and/or if power lines break.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY -- A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued if conditions warranting two seperate winter advisories are met.

WINTER STORM WATCH -- A Winter Storm Watch may be issued when conditions are forecast to meet the criteria for more than one warning with in the next 36 hours. A watch for a single winter weather event does not exist, for example a Wind Chill Watch or a Heavy Snow Watch. Just the same, if a forecaster thinks there will be significant snow and ice tomorrow, he/she will issue a Winter Storm Watch.

WINTER STORM WARNING -- A Winter Storm Warning will be issued if conditions are forecast to meet the criteria for two seperate warnings in the next 12-24 hours. Example: If you have Heavy Snow Warning conditions along with Wind Chill Warning conditions, a Winter Storm Warning will be issued.

BLIZZARD WARNING -- A Blizzard Warning will be issued when the following conditions are forecast to last at least 3 hours. Falling and/or blowing snow frequently reducing visibility to 35 mph.

ICE STORM WARNING -- An Ice StormWarning will be issued if freezing rain/drizzle is occurring with a significant accumulation of ice (more than 1/4 inch) or accumlation of 1/2 inch of sleet.

HEAVY SNOW WARNING -- A Heavy Snow Warning will be issued if 6 or more inches of snow is expected in a 12 hour period.

I found this from
http://weather.cod.edu/notes/criteria.html
-------------
Charles,

Thanks. And, we shouldn't worry about it. Our forecast hasn't changed.

Gary

********
Just to inform all the bloggers why they didn't issue a winter storm warning is the fact the NWS has set standards for various types of products. as an example, the Winter Storm Warning is only supposed to be issued when snow totals are forecast to be more than 6". so what the NWS was doing was more or less saying.. Ok, watch out, there could be 6" or more.. then as we got closer, they decided, nah, 6" will likely be top end. and went with a s
now adv. which is normally issued for 1-6".
----------------
Thanks Glen,

Are you finally excited?

Gary

************************************
Gary-
You mentioned that you get accused of being too enthusiastic...oh my gosh...please don't change! Your enthusiasm is what draws people to you. Your passion about what you do gives you amazing credibility! When people are passionate about what they do, they want to get better and better at it! This is what so many people love about you!! I wonder if you know how many people don't just prefer to watch you....they are unusually passionate about their allegiance to you! I would imagine this kind of feeling about a weather personality is a little unusual. SOOOOO, all this to say, just keep being yourself because there are a heck of a lot of us that wouldn't know what to do without you! You inspired a love for weather in me and I know I'm not the only one. You are leaving quite a legacy :-)
Now...back to tracking this storm!!
Samantha
.........................................

Samantha,

Gary will never change, as it is in his blood. He becomes naturally excited. I know how he feels as I am exactly the same. It is a natural high that comes instinctivly. It is a lot of fun working with him.

Jeff Penner

******************************
Gary please don't let any kids down we love snow and no school
.......................................
Sam,

I do not know if school will be cancelled Monday as the snow will be ending early Sunday.

The new data is in and it is a go on the snow!

Jeff

****************
Gary:

Thanks so much for the responses this morning to my musings/rambelings!!! You can bet I will be sledding tomorrow even if we only get an inch!!!

The 12Z Nam I think is a tad further south. However, to me, the biggest deal is that it is now snowing in Wichita and it looks like the snow is on Emporia's door step. May take a bit to staurate everything, but it does look like snow is on the way!!!!! One look at the 12Z GFS and then time to watch radars, satelite imagery, maybe the RUC and temp. profiles!!!!!

Thanks again for the responses-you have so many responsibilities that it is really fantastic that you take the time to answer!!! That is the proof in the pudding on you and the team's excellence. Good luck today-I can't imagine how hectic it will be for you and the team!!!

Bill, waiting for the first flake, in Lawrence!!
--------------
Bill,

I don't like the GFS dry slot getting here at 2 AM. It would shut off so fast. But, maybe it won't get here until 6 AM and we can maximize the potential of this storm.

Gary

**************
People that criticize Gary for his enthusiasm are people who do not feel passion for anything in their lives. Since they are incapable of feeling that passion, they criticize others for having it. It is more a reflection on them than anything else.
I am definately a Lezakian. I love watching his weather forecasts because you can literally see him straining to contain his excitement about the weather. It is the same struggle that I go through when exciting events are happening. It is unfortunate that both of us have to even try and contain it because of the threat of ridicule. Anyway, I'm off the pulpit now.
---------------
Jim,

There is nothing wrong with being a kid our entire lives. This is what life should be about, but at the same time maintaining that professionalism.

Gary