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The NWS is calling for freezing drizzle or a wintry mix for Cass County? Where is this call coming from?
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Paul,

There is a little disturbance moving through and anything that falls will be very minor if it even happens at all.

Gary

Breezy and Stormy look lilke they love the snow like you do!!! Our Sadie never did like it. Be watching for next report on weather.

You answered my question that I was about to ask. I was going to ask if you saw any more systems like the one that occurred last night. It would be nice to see more snow....no more of the freezing rain and drizzle.

Gary thanks for the great forcast I hope we get more storms in the area the next 60 days Breezy and Stormy look like they are having a blast Jerry action weather fan

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Gary, I have a picture to submit of our property, results from the storm. How do I submit a picture by email or on the web, something for your consideration for putting on the air?

Jeff
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Jeff,

Just email it to me at lezak@nbcactionnews.com

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Gary, I think the cycle is great and it confirms all your hard work. What might be the exception let's say in the next two weeks? Are you saying if it locks winter pattern you thought would happen then another strong wintery setup could come back before the main cycle recurs again? I find your work fascinating and I am telling folks here in Topeka about your work since we don't get you anymore on the cable network. Are you think anytime after next Sunday as there appears to be a nice warm-up this week or in and around 15 days with would be Feb 3rd through the 5th? Thanks, Michael/Topeka
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Mike,

It all very likely fits the cycle, but we will have to look back at it in a few weeks and see how it lines up. Sometimes we get split flow and blocks and it makes the pattern look a bit different at times, but overall when you look back it all makes sense.

Gary

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Gary,
excellent job yesterday.
I found a site on the NWS where i can watch a national radar picture. The storm yesterday was beautiful on the radar.
I am excited about the next 15 days. catch up on your sleep!
Later, Ryan
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Ryan,

Thanks, and I am almost caught up. I had a 3 hour nap this afternoon.

Gary

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Hey Gary,

Does ESP now have Rain Vision because looking at weathercentral.tv it also has Rain Vision?? When do you think our next big storm could be?
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Andrew,

I am not sure about the storm yet, but we do have rain vision as well.

Gary

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I am happy now, everything is covered in a white coat!!
As for the future, what you blogged about sounds similar to last year's pattern which had a more amplified phase, then a less amplified phase, so is this a similar situation, a cycle with to phases one more amplified and another less amplified?
Thanks for your time.
Nick very content in St. Joe!!
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Nick,

It already has been fairly amplified. Let's see how it really sets up.

Gary

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Gary, you should be already 30% sure of the next storm. That is what the LRC will buy you. Then, when the models show it, you should be 70% sure. Then, its a matter of details as to where/when/how much. Imagine not having the LRC..and having to subtract 30% off of your forecasting skill? At that point, it would be about a 50/50 coin flip working from the models until you can get a satelite or radar view. Guess that is how the other half live....

That being said...look back 40 days, and read the blogs...they tell you when the next storms are due. Or..if you are organized...you already have gone back to a point in the cycle and mapped each event, and have modeled the storms through late June. It does make it easier to plan....

When do we get the news on the next storm? The Dec 20th one...???? Lets see here..that would be on tap for..say, Jan 29th or so...let review the current GFS at 192ish hrs...looks pretty bleak. But WAIT...this is the "LRC Advantage". [yes Gary, you have permission to use it..just give me a credit now and then - [[not the LRC part, but the LRC Advantage - kinda has a cool ring to it, huh?]]

Look at the main features...see the 145 ridge pushing up along the west coast way into Canada?
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Scott,

Great stuff! This isn't easy though as sometimes a little ridge on one cycle becomes a big ridge on the next cycle. So, this is what could disguise things.

Wow, did we just have a distraction from worrying about longer range stuff. 10 days of fun.

Gary

See the prominent Great Lakes/Canada trough?

See the little vort on the GFS forming in the SW? Granted, the GFS has yet to figure out this will be bigger....but its trying...remember..the GFS does not have the LRC. Poor GFS.

Its all there. Look at the maps from that timeframe..[Dec 19th/20th].

And the cold air should stick around. On to the Dec 20th and 25th storms..but the question will be this...will we get the snow this time instead of Colorado? Looking back, we did get quite a bit of rain. 1-1.5in. Translated with a bit of cold air...10-15 in. of snow. Much like the Colorado totals. And last but not least, we have the tropical connection...I love teleconnections!

Enough tonight, but take a deep breath..focus..and get ready for the next one...its not too far away.

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Gary,
Kudos for the great job you and the team did this weekend. Question: now that you know, and can see the pattern, is it too early to tell if it will be a wet spring and summer?
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Dwight,

Summer can be tricky, but I don't know how this pattern is dry during the spring, it should at least be average if not above average.

Gary

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Gary:

Good winter's morning to you sir!! Wow-what a day yesterday: shoveling driveways, sledding, building forts, placing rails on the forts for Thomas the Tank Engine, walks in the snow-just an incredible winter's day-been a while since we have a day like that!!!! Awesome pics of Breezy and Stormy!! We're sitting around 27 degrees but I noticed on the surface analysis that there are some single digits in Western Nebraska so hopfully we'll stay close to around freezing today-just to protect the fort for one more day!!!

One thing my 10 cent weather head (w/out the million doallar arm to quote Bull Duraham) thought about yesterday as the temps. popped up to 40 by 11:00 A.M. and stayed in the upper 30's even with the NW wind was that we kind of caught lightning in a bottle with this snow-we got the timming just right as the cold air seemed to be fleeting rather quickly!!!

Well, per my secret arrangement with Mother Nature, I have not looked at a model output since the 12Z runs Saturday so I have not a clue as to what they are hinting/showing (I did take a peek at the 500 chart for 12-12-06-just couldn't resist-wow-amazing!!!!) but have thought based on pure conjecture that this time through the cycle we may set up more like we did in October/early November which was overall a cold month by normal standards-reading your blog entry from last night gave me a little bit of a good feel about that.

Well, for a winter weather lover as myself, it has been an incredible 10 days-cold with precipitation to boot-been almost 14 months since we have had a good stretch of both. Thanks again for all the responses to my musings/ramblings and listenting to the ideas of my 10 cent weather head-it is appreciated beyond words. I think I now have to concentrate some what on my day job!!!! However, I'm sure I'll be checking the GFS, Euro, NAM et al and be bothering you again!!!

Have a great day and I'm glad you got caught up on your sleep-fantastic job as always!!

Bill in Lawrence whose kids wore him ragged yesterday!!!!
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Bill,

I think it is healthy to not always look at the model data. Then, again, how do you do it? (LOL) The weather calms down for a while, but you are right it has been a long time since we had such an active 10 day stretch and it really isn't over yet. This is what we anticipated for the winter. There are a few locations down south that are now up to 25 inches for the winter, then others, like KCI which is now finally in the game at 6 inches. There could be a few more events.

Gary

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Do you think the storm this weekend could turn out to be just as bad as last weekends was we are moving I really do not want to be loading a moving truck in the snow?
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Charles,

It doesn't look like it is anything more than a few showers, if that. But, let's see how we feel Tuesday and Wednesday.

Gary

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On TV this morn you said Spearfish, ND.
I believe you meant SD.

Spearfish is in the state of South Dakota in the Black Hills.
I used to live in the area.
Sue
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Sue,
Thanks, the source I have says North Dakota, it must be in error. Thanks for calling my attention to that.

Brett

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WOW, -4, to 49 in two minutes!!!!!!!
How would you like to forcast something like that! (Imagine the pot holes that it would create, more like pot craters;))
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,
Hi, Isn't that crazy? That was actually in South Dakota, my source material had it wrong.

Thanks,
Brett

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Gary..what do you think about this Saturday-Sunday? Looking at the map, seems we have a ULL tracking in KS, some strong diffluence on the 120hr-138 GFS over eastern KS..maybe to give some good lift, and the 850 shows cold enough, and the 700 RH shows moisture in the area. Maybe a light snow event? Even watching the vort, it shows it tracking on the south edge of the metro...so, maybe the 500 could have enough depth for cold air to rush in? The MSLP shows a cold enough thickness...Dunno...trying out my newfound knowledge to see if this is feasible.

Thoughts?
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Scott,

Right now I don't think there is a good chance. Everything is changing big time right now. ANd, I am going to Las Vegas Wednesday so nothing can happen while I am gone, but seriously, I doubt this wave does anything for us besides a few clouds. An Arctic front and the northern branch is heading south.

The GFS just came out and would it shock you if all of the advertised cold in the long range was a fluke? We know what fits and what doesn't. Today's run has a nice cold shot next week but then everything breaks down just like it should.

Gary

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Gary,
How are we in terms of precip, for the year thus far? What is the average precip for January?
------------------------
Erin,

We are right on average so far. But, it is about to drop below.

Gary

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You showed the snow horse sculpture last night on the 10 pm newscast, as well as this morning on the morning news. Will you post a picture of it on the blog?

Thanks.
-----------------------
Kane,

I will try to post a few good ones later.

Gary

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Two interesting thoughts...

1. The CRC ENSO report says the following..which contradicts many of the talking heads that don't understand anything about this El Nino.."As result, the effects of this event on circulation of higher latitudes eg. over North America, has been minimal."

2. Also..in the ENSO report, it shows a cycle that loosely relates to what has been seen in the LRC from a 500mb ananomoly perspective.

Check out http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.ppt

Interesting how it shows the 145 ridge cycling in strength...
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Scott,

I did glance at it and Jeff and I will look at it later. We know about the LRC!

Gary

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Gary:

Good winter's morning to you sir!!! Awesome out this morning if you like cold January mornings!!! (which of course I do!!!)

I finally did it-I looked at the models-wow-both Euro and GFS look pretty darned cold after this Saturday-the GFS is just brutal cold around the first of February-I just can't bring myself to buy it as is!!!!! Looks like some decent chinook winds today so our fort is in some serious jeapordy!!! LOL

Sorry about the "War and Peace" BLOG last night-I just saw those maps and was like WOW and had to share it!!!! Next week could be interesting as the models do show that block holding on in the Eastern Pacific/NW US-I think??? But as you always say: is it right??? I just can't buy it!!! Thanks again and have a great day!!

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill,

I am buying it. I think it is entirely possible. And, it completly fits the long term long wave trough. When we made our winter forecast there were two main features. The long term long wave ridge at 145 west that has dominated this winter weather pattern and been very consistent. And, there was a powerful closed low long term longwave trough near the Great Lakes. I even talked about it in my winter forecast which is on our web page. Take a look at it. So, the GFS, ECMWF, etc. are predicting this feature to finally come back. It was quite impressive in October. Remember my theory, the pattern shows itself between October 10th and November 10th and then begins cycling. Between October 15th and October 31st there were a series of very strong upper lows that dropped in and closed off near the Great Lakes. This is why we predicted the bullseye of below average temperatures in that region for the winter, despite El Nino. Well the next time through the cycle it was a very weak version of that part of the pattern. Anyway here it comes. It is NOT just an arbitrary return to that feature. I know you probably agree with me. It is so complex. Let me know what you think.

I am out of town beginning tomorrow. So, let's see what we think when I get back.

Gary