« Light snow is in the forecast |
| It's another warming trend.... »
Arctic air watch
Happy New Year and good morning bloggers,
What a New Year's weekend we had. The Chiefs are in the playoffs. We had rain and then a little bit of snow, so it isn't the second snowless December in three years and in our history. Western Kansas was buried under 30 inches of snow. And now we look to the north.
Click to enlarge
Above is the 216 hour forecast for later next week. I have outlined in blue the rather impressive Arctic airmass that will be on our doorstep by next Friday. So, It will very likely turn very cold, but for how long? Will there be a storm associated with this cold air? These questions will be answered soon.
Have a great start to the year!
Posted by at January 2, 2007 6:13 AM
Gary, Good trip to Wichita and on Sunday am within the hour we were in for breakfast our car was covered with snow. We headed north and got out of it in a hurry. Nothing bad after that. So we were thankful for that. It was a rainy Sat. down there also. Have a great New Year.
Happy New Year to you as well.
Posted by: Ginger at January 2, 2007 7:08 AM
Well it finally happened! I saw my first flakes between Lawrence and Eudora at 1:04 PM Sunday! It was a really nice storm, Mclouth, KS had roughly 1.05" of rain and .40 inches of snow or so Sunday afternoon. Less than a half an inch but more than a dusting. I saw a little bit of everything from the storm. Minus a tornado and hail. Arctic air watch sound great!
It was a nice storm system for us. I was hoping for a little more rain, but in the end it was a wide spread soaking. And, then a little bit of snow. That dusting to 1/2" didn't make it to Kansas City, but at least we saw some snowflakes.
Posted by: Brett at January 2, 2007 7:23 AM
I am so glad to hear we may get some colder weather. It is January...it should be cold. Maybe we can get some snow and alot of it.
It will snow more in January than the flurries we had in December.
Posted by: Monica at January 2, 2007 7:57 AM
Good morning to you Gary and your weather team. In Berryton/Topeka just received a dusting. About what day this week or will it be the weekend before you see the evidence of a storm connecting up with the Artic Air? Will we see only one more shot of Artic Air this year correlating with your cycle? Again thanks for your all forecasting. Hope this year is wetter than last, I believe we finished just under 3 inches down for the year. Thanks, michael/Berryton
We had a good finish to the year. I think this year will be wetter.
There is almost no doubt that a large Arctic airmass is going to form, but there is always doubt on whether we get a storm as well. We almost for sure will get something, but a big storm?
Posted by: michael huffman at January 2, 2007 8:19 AM
According to the cycle, when would the setup that gave us the late November snow cycle back through? Is it the Jan. 10th potental you were talking about a few weeks ago?
It appears we are in a 42 day cycle. You always have two or three days either way, so this would put that similar set up around January 12th to 13th or so. And, it is showing up. A tremendous Arctic airmass may be building within 7 days and then it could be quite exciting.
Posted by: Rod at January 2, 2007 9:38 AM
I was at the Chiefs game on Sunday and not only was it a great game to watch, seeing the light snow start falling towards the end of the game was icing on the cake. You predicted it right on the nose.
I am glad you enjoyed the game, and now the Chiefs are in the playoffs! Our weather team stuck with the potential for snowflakes on New Year's Eve all the way through. I know we were the only ones.
Posted by: Marlina at January 2, 2007 10:30 AM
Gary, When you say "tremendous arctic airmass", is this one that has the potential to last a week or so? Or one that comes down for a day or two then disappears?
When I say a tremendous Arctic airmass I am talking about how big it is and how high the pressure gets. The pressure on the lates GFS goes up to 1064 mb. This is about as strong as Arctic airmasses get. But, this is on the computer. It hasn't happened yet and it is 11 days away.
Posted by: Dave C. at January 2, 2007 10:58 AM
So...snow chances late next week, eh? I'm flying to Mazatlan via Denver...hopefully no airport shut-downs are in order. Any potential of that happening??
Also - here's a statistic for you. I just tallyed up the total snow for calendar 2006 @ KCI - a whopping 2.9". Think we can beat that in '07?? (Grins)
Great stat of the day! I hadn't added it up yet. That must have taken you a long time to add up all of that 2.9". We will have more that this in January or we are in trouble.
Posted by: Drew at January 2, 2007 11:19 AM
I ran the GFS this morning and noticed the Artic cold mass coming down, and on the 18th noticed that after the mass gets here there is a train of moisture coming from off the coast of California to the Midwest. Now I know this is going to change a lot between now and the 18th. I have a question for you, using your theory, and starting the cycle trend on the 10th of October, and with it recycling on the end of November, and another storm brewing (at least in the GFS) for the 18th or so, aren't we more on a 50 day cycle and not a 40 day cycle? Now I am not questioning your theory, just applying your theory and I've come up with a 50 day cycle not a 40 day cycle. Also since I am trying to project weather in other area’s of the county, can we use your theory for places like Rio Rancho, Salt Lake, just to name a few cities, or is your theory just for the Midwest? Thank you for your feed back, and for all your hard work.
40 days or 50 days? I am not sure. I must spend more time analyzing. You may very well be correct and I think this next pattern shift will really help us. It appeared to me to line up around 42 days. But, in the end what is it? We will discuss further later in the week.
Posted by: Kevin at January 2, 2007 11:26 AM
Great weekend nice weather we saw a little of everything. Rain, Snow, Ice, Mild warmth yesterday. What are the chances Friday's warmth will spill over to Saturday? I'm hoping for a nice warm weekend for my wedding!
At least it will be dry on Saturday, but a bit on the cool side as that front blows through here. Good luck with the wedding. Let us know how it goes.
Posted by: Jereme at January 2, 2007 11:38 AM
I would think that it has the potential get much colder around here than some of the models are indicating. With this type of pattern for early to mid January the northern plains will see many more chances for snow, potentially adding to the snowpack, and buckling the polar jet stream Therefore, I think the models may underestimate how far south and east the arctic air may go. Are you seeing the potential for sub-zero temperatures this January with the pattern cycling? Thanks
Exactly! But, let's see how the pattern evolves. This will be a factor if it can just start snowing up there.
Posted by: Devin at January 2, 2007 11:44 AM
Gary - I need you to look at January 25-29 from here to Delaware. I know that is a LONG way out. So using your theory and pattern for the winter, what weather should be expected during those dates from here to Delaware?
So we are cycling a 40 or so day cycle. What day (about) would that be in the cycle and what has been happening in past cycles?
The pattern may be fairly active that week based on the theory. But, we will have to look at it in a week or so.
Posted by: Leonard at January 2, 2007 1:02 PM
Looking at the GFS, its odd how it tries to handle that strengthening ridge. I haven't seen a pattern quite like that yet in the models...it almost has the 500mb streams heading backwards from the coast out to the Pacific! That would be indicative of a rather strong H pressure [clockwise flow]. We have seen a bit of the ridge thus far, but this one coming in is really strong!
It is really similar to what has happened twice already. And, remember the models will likely be off quite a bit.
Posted by: Scott at January 2, 2007 1:05 PM
How cold do you think it will get later in the month? Accroding to "Accuweather.com" 15 day outlook, it will be in the mid to upper 50's and low 60's for the most part of the month! Tell me thats NOT true! PLEASE!!! I want a lot of snow and for it to be cold!
It will turn very cold this month, but for how long? I am not sure yet. It could be two days or two weeks. Most likely closer to the two days as this pattern continues. But, there is hope it could lock into the cold air.
Posted by: Jacob Honeycutt at January 2, 2007 1:49 PM
2 questions, what is the likelyhood of KC ever seeing anything close to what Denver got? Is it just a matter of being in the right place at the right time or what?
The odds are very low, but we have had two foot snowstorms in our local region a few times. Everything just needs to come together.
Posted by: Todd Jones at January 2, 2007 2:31 PM
Love your enthusiasm about Midwest weather.
Hey what tremendous sights do we have to see out here, but the sky!? No Mountains, No Ocean...so we have big sky country right here. I'm happy to hear the cold weather is on the way south. I have a small organic apple orchard in Grandview (we press great cider every fall) and we need some solid cold to kill off the bugs and set the apple and pear trees into dormancy so they can waken up to Spring and set good fruit. So cold weather is important!
Also some of the best fishing in the area is at LaCygne, KS Coal fire Electric plant, when it gets COLD! The water temp from the furnaces causes all the smaller bait fish to congregate and the big ones come in to feast all in one area. It can be amazing fishing. But we need some cold (sub-zero) for a few weeks to get that perculating.
I remember the winter of 1970-71 growing up around O'Neill, NE in the sandhills NC Nebraska...we had over 30 days in a row where our daily high temp never rose above 0 degrees Farenheit! At night lows dipped in the -25 below range. That's cold! BRRRR! You enjoy cutting wood in those temps..."He who burns wood is warmed twice..."
Especially when you walk 1/4 mile lane to catch the School bus over 4' hardened drifts of snow each morning up hill both ways! ha! ;-)
Great ice fishing weather...almost 3' of ice to cut through on Grove Lake at Royal, NE.
We're just spoiled down here!
No ice fishing this year, unless this next Arctic outbreak is really strong and lasts for more than a couple of days. We'll see.
Thanks for the information. Keep us updated on your apple and pear trees.
Posted by: Randall Lange at January 2, 2007 2:55 PM
Ok..just a bit of the dreaded El Nino thoughts. Gary, I know your stance..but thought these points are interesting...
1. When the warm pool is displaced east during El Niño, the enhanced thunderstorm activity in the central equatorial Pacific perturbs the flow in the upper atmosphere, with a ripple effect downstream consisting of a series of alternating high and low pressure regions along a great circle route into North America[Teleconnections - PNA]
2. The disturbance spreads downstream in a series of waves - The downstream wave appears as higher pressures than normal over western Canada and lower pressures than normal over the southeastern United States
3. During El Niño periods, the eastern Pacific warms up as much as 4-5°C and the gradient is consequently larger. This contributes to strengthening the jet approaching North America.
4. Another element affecting North America is that when the eastern Pacific is warm, increased evaporation occurs, as well as tropical convection, and the moisture pumped into the upper atmosphere can be carried northeast by the subtropical jet stream.
Ok...so..some of this is well "duh" of course, but I think its interesting to see how it alligns with the LRC and what we are seeing this year. I know you will not see any relevance in this, but it seems interesting that the El Nino pattern would indicate specific attributes that may fall into or affect the LRC.
With the stronger jet, and the split jet, I can see how the LRC would reveal more types of cutoff lows forming. Pretty cool.
I think the biggest key in what I have researched is the role of the Aleutian Low. When strong, it seems to push all the jet energy north into Canada, leaving the majority of the US to deal with the cutoff lows that form. But...when the low strengthens, it brings more energy into the NW [thus all the precip this year in the NW], and would make it cooler and wetter.
I think if looking at these patterns and looking at the polar GFS, its interesting to see this shown in the models as it rotates around the globe.
I would love to have more time to research and show more teleconnections, but this is all I had time for.
---Gets ready to duck----
You don't have to duck. These are good ideas and I am not certain of the answers. But, I do believe that El Nino is influencing the weather pattern, but I am firm in my belief that the "long term" longwave troughs and ridges set up independently. Then, El Nino and other ocean anamolies influence the pattern. Something bigger just has to be happening up there. How can you explain Los Angeles still waiting for their first significant rain this entire season. Seattle is getting it instead because of that 140 west ridge that is one of the most dominant features with this pattern. This "long term longwave" ridge out there is also a very important feature allowing for the development of the southwestern upper lows. If the LRC had set up differently, and it will with the next El Nino, then the influences would have produced very different results.
Posted by: Scott at January 2, 2007 5:21 PM
I just wanted to kno why the likleyhood of having a storm like Denver had is so small. I hope when the pattern shifts in the next week or so, that we can get the cold air in place, before the storms get here. and when did the storm that may occur in a few weeks happen before.
You and your weather team are the best!
Denver and western Kansas are at higher elevations. So, even when it is marginally cold enough here for snow and we end up with a cold rain, at higher elevations the temperatures will be colder, about 2 to 3 degrees cooler per each 1,000 feet. This is why with the same conditions we could be 39 degrees with rain whereas Goodland Kansas would be 30 degrees with snow.
If everything lines up perfectly then we have the opportunity for a big snow just like what happened only a few miles south of her 5 weeks ago.
Posted by: Andy at January 2, 2007 9:30 PM
Good Morning!!!! Hope the week is going good so far!! Classes start back up today so my hobby will be taking a back seat for a spell!!
You can see evidence of the pattern slowly changing just as the LRC predicts-the NWT are beginning to get colder and in some cases below average and it looks on satelite (I think I am seeing this correctly) that the ridge is slowly starting to evolve in the North Pacific-this is right on track with this past November-I think???
I don't think the modles have a handle on how this is all going to play out-they do show the ridge developing, but they are beginning to diverge and switch even on this weekend-some take the low south-some further north-they are also keeping it colder here longer almost till Tuesday-interesting stuff-lots of time to see how things will work out here at the surface.
I do believe for sure, that we will have a pattern shift after this week-how long it wil last and what it will do for us on the surface is yet to be detremined-but the LRC is already paying dividends as you can see the changes slowly evolving just as the LRC predicted-no matter what the Euro and GFS say-(They do show an artic front, but they have both kind of gone back and forth on it)
Have a great day-thanks again for sharing your thoughts on the blog-it is a great place for sure-off to teach Comparative Politics and History-yeha!!!!
Good luck with teaching today! This weather pattern is going to drive me nuts. There are just limited rewards for the weather enthusiast. Hopefully it will line up nicely soon. I am supposed to go on a ski trip with the Kansas City ski club a week from Friday. Will I be able to go, or will we be having a big storm?
Posted by: Bill Gollier at January 3, 2007 5:41 AM
When will it be warmer
It depends on what you call warmer. We don't see 60 degrees for a while, but 50 degrees could pop in there within 10 days.
Posted by: AUSTIN at January 17, 2007 9:43 AM