Gary, I have seen a few snowflakes, but not much. With this chance of an artic outbreak, do the models show any signs of a snowstorm, or at least snow? And have any of the computer models shown any signs of a major ice storm. Maybe like the one of 2002?

We had some flurries in Lenexa!

The GFS shows the Artic front just to the northest of us. It was showing up snow for Sunday.
GaryB

It flurried for exactly 25 seconds in Lenexa. What's next?

The was some light rain at Missouri Western State University at around 2 P.M., the air temp was only around 30 degrees or so but I didn't see any icing.
If there is still a good amount of snow on the ground if/when this arctic air mass arrives it could be a good punch!!
Nick in St. Joe!

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Gary – Glad you addressed the polar blast, and potential for persistent arctic air…I pointed to this last week. I think February will be seasonably or even unseasonably cool. Now, as we head into this part of the cycle, it should get pretty interesting. Lets remember Denver and the last 10 days of December….we had quite a bit of moisture here, but it was too warm. If we get that teleconnection again [which should have also been put into the LRC], as it has been persistent this season from the tropical Pacific, we should get quite a bit of snow. I believe some of those rain totals were in the area of 1-2 inches. I like what I see now with the ridge and the GL low now finally participating.

As far as the big winter storm…you know the answer to this. Throw out the models. The LRC is the proof. Add 40 days on to Dec 20-30…well…Jan. 29th – Feb 8th . Then we get the warm up, and POW..its Feb 25th. We all know what is coming then….

The LRC kinda takes the fun out of things….doncha think?
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Scott,

The LRC actually helps us enjoy it when we know it is suppose to happen. But, it can be frustrating too.

It can't be unseasonably cold during winter. It is seasonable to be very cold. Now, as we move into March and April and we get an Arctic blast then that would be unseasonable. Just like during summertime. It can't be unseasonably warm.

Gary

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Does this mean we could wind up with more than 25 in of snow?
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Charles,

It is already above 25 inches in a few spots to our south. You never know what will exactly happen, but there seems to be too many opportunities for us not to get another 8 to 12 inches this season. Plus, one storm could really dump in some locations.

Gary

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Gary,I am learning much more each time I log into the blog, from your team and the bloggers. I am Looking forward to see how the winter plays out in relation to the LRC. I hope the atic blast is as strong as you think and thanks for the info Jerry in the northland.
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Jerry,

Excellent! This is what the blog is for. To learn, share and enjoy!

Gary

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Gary:

I am a true believer of the LRC! It is amazing, makes sense and I now believe. With that in mind, our son's 6th birthday is coming up and the most logical weekend to celebrate is Feb 24. If I'm not mistaken from the Bloggers meeting you stated that this might be the next round according to the pattern. Are you so confident that we should reschedule the birthday celebrations for the following weekend to allow out-of-town family members the chance to join us?? :o)

P.S. Thanks for including me in the commercials! I have enjoyed telling everyone I know about the Bloggers meeting and NBC Action Weather!!

--Andrea (and Todd) in Overland Park
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Andrea,

You are awesome in the commercial. I wouldn't reschedule. Different things happen each time through the cycle. And, it could be the next weekend that is the bad one.

Gary

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Wow I hope this prognostication holds true, knowing how winters have been lately I'm not going to get too ecxited, but there is a grin on my face:) As for the band of radar echos there was some light rain in St. Joe at about 2P.M., I've blogged this before but it might not have gotten through, so sorry if it is on there twice. The flurries tomorrow will be a nice touch!
Thanks for your time.
Nick in (wintery) St. Joe!!
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Nick,

Amazing, so you had some rain. I didn't think that would happen today. We are actually having a realy winter, suddenly.

Gary

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What kind of temps are we talking about? Anything like December 1989? That wasa record cold for KC.
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Kristi,

We will have to wait and see how it sets up. So far, we don't see a large Arctic high forming. This pattern hasn't produced one yet.

Gary

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Hello Gary,
Maybe some light snow Wednesday morning? Any chance of any accumulation, Saturday look like anything?
Anne
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Anne,

We are just thinking a few flurries.

Gary

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Winter is here to stay! Keep up the good work Gary and the rest of your team. The LRC is definitely a fact. The moisture will be good to get. Hopefully we will get mostly snow and not that much freezing rain when these storms get going. At around 2:15 here in Topeka we had rain/sleet.
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Mike,

Thanks for the report. The next two weeks and beyond will be fascinating.

Gary

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Gary - symantics...but you are right..what I meant to say is normal to below normal temperatures.

I had a funny thought today. I was looking at monthly anomolies and the associated forecasts...boy..these are deceiving if you don't really think about it. Just because it shows the trend to be below normal temps for an area, does not mean that from a day to day perspective it will be colder. You could actually have more days warmer than normal than colder than normal, and show a colder than normal month..just would mean that the cold days are colder on average than the warm days are above average...

Tricky CRC...LOL
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Scott,

I was just giving you a hard time!

Gary

Gary:

Good Evening to you sir!!!!

Thanks so much for the words of encouragement on this afternoons blog-it is truly appreciated-I will try and be less wordy-hopefully I can succeed!!!!

It appears though that all of it was off base-kind of like many of Tim Robbin's pitches: I kind of hit the Bull in the head!!!! I think I was focusing so much on December but the more I think about it, the Euro and GFS do look very similar to that mid October 500 ht map. Oh well-I will keep plugging away beacuse it is so fascinating to me and while I may never truly "get it" it is fun trying!!!! Thanks to you for helping me out so much!!!!! Man, the GFS and Euro look cold from Saturday on for sure!!!

NWT stands for the North West Territories of Canada. Also, here is that link for that free site of archived data: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/. On the left hand side there is a link for archived data-one can get tons of past maps for the Pacific, Asia, North America etc. Awesome stuff!!!!

Have a great trip to Vegas and I hope you enjoy yourself-you deserve it!!! If all this verifies, we are going to have an incredible wild ride beginning this Saturday-I'm strapped in-I hope the ride doesn't break down before it starts!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

PS: I missed the precipitation today-was in class all day-rats!!!!
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Bill,

It was only a few precipitation drops, flakes that made it to the ground. I didn't see any.

I will be back Saturday night and hopefully refreshed and ready to hit this next stretch of winter.

Gary

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As far as Winter is concerned, an "F" means FINE. An "A" is what's at the end of "Pain in the...".

^_^
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Frank,

Everyone has their standards. I like warmer weather, but not now.

Gary

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Gary,

Yes, i'd say 16" of snow, 3" of ice & sleet all before the end of January is at least a "B"! How much snow would we have if we had a cold instead of warm December? Close to 2 feet more than likely. Your winter forcast for KC is looking more and more accurate! Not that it suprises me that it is, but...lets just say some other "weather people" were much warmer in their predictions with much less precip. Look who's right now?

Tim in GW
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Tim,

Thanks, and we should be only half way through.

Gary

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Maybe this winter will be like last winter, in the "December red-herring" department. Last year December got our hopes up for long cold, but the rest of the winter proved your original thoughts, so maybe, just maybe this December is/was doing the same thing but this time making us worry about a really warm winter. Well, we will see, it hasn't happened yet, so I have to be careful not to get modilitis;)
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

Good point, but this year we did not update the forecast!!!!!!!

GAry

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Hi Gary,
This is a question I'll bet might be a first. My son (who is "tornado freak" on the blog!!) is doing a report at school on a person in history who he admires and has contributed a great deal to society as a whole. He want to do his on the "first meteorologist." I'm wondering IS there someone who was considered the first? I've read that Ben Franklin was considered the first in America. Just wondering if you could help us out in any way. Thank you so much for your time!! Kathleen
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Kathleen,
Oddly enough, Greek philosopher Aristotle is thought to be the father of Meteorology. He wrote a thesis paper called "Meteorologica". It was an attempt to describe everything of a physical nature in the sky, air, sea and earth.
When Aristotle died, his student Theophrastus continued his research.

Brett

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Any chance you see the winter KC is about to get affect the east coast with a winter as well? Right now they have not gotten an inch of snow still!!!
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It looks like it is getting more active for them.
BRett

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Good Morning Action Weather Team from Lawrence Kansas!!!!

Awesome out this morning-partly cloudy and 31 degrees-it is amazing: we have had snow/sleet on the ground for 11 days now and the ponds have been iced over for alomost 8 days-how long has it been since we have had that???

Boy, the modles are still showing the arctic freight train (I think??)-the 06Z GFS was just nuts!!! If all verifies, Friday may be our last/lone much above average day for quite some time!!!!

My random/grasping thought: if this verifies, does the pattern then become too suppresed and the lows all go into the Gulf then up the East Coast or if I have read anything correctly (doubtfull LOL) does that persistent SE ridge help bounce things up across the Appalacians somewhat?? Just a random thought/guess/idea

Have a great and fantastic day-If you have not left yet Gary: have a great few days!!!

Bill in Lawrence

Not too long was it???
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Bill,
Did you see that huge low on the 6z data that would bring a huge storm here around the 7th? Interesting, also if that goes too far south, then look for a series of Alberta Clippers to offer reinforcing shots of cold and light snow chances.

Brett