KSHB: Weather: Action Weather Blog: As we wait on the new data......

Yes, there is a chance of snow Saturday into Sunday. There are differences in the data that came out overnight with the NAM tracking the upper low well to our northwest. If you want snow you don't want this to happen. Let's wait and see how the models look today.

Last night I experienced something eye opening. As we try to explain to viewers around Kansas City that there is a forecast that actually is accurate something like this happens......

It was 9:30 PM. I just finished updating KMBZ News Radio 980 AM on the forecast for the next few days. Jeff Penner was not in the NBC ACTION NEWS FORECAST CENTER. I looked at Live ESP and saw some radar echoes right over the Plaza. I knew where Jeff was and ran outside to look (Remember rule #1 of forecasting is always look outside, you never know) It was snowing. The radar echoes grew and spread into Independence, Gladstone, Liberty and north and east from there. So, what was the theme of our 10 PM weathercast? It was snowing now, look outside and the potential for the weekend storm. We were on three times during the half hour talking about it. I mentioned to Jeff Penner that our competition likely didn't know it was snowing right outside their window and sure enough this happens....

As soon as I was off the air at 10:23 PM the phone was ringing. It was a viewer in Excelsior Springs. She says "is this the weather department?". I say "Yes, this is Gary Lezak". She says "How can you go the entire weathercast without even knowing or mentioning that it is snowing outside?". I said, "were you watching NBC ACTION NEWS, channel 41?" She hesitates and says "uh, isn't this such and such channel?". And I said, "No, this is Gary Lezak, NBC ACTION NEWS and we just spent the entire half hour talking about your snow in Excelsior Springs". She says, "Oh, uh, when it comes to stuff like this we don't watch that channel, but, uh, maybe we will from now on".

I told her to watch at the end of the show, and I again showed Live ESP zooming into Excelsior Springs and they were still in the snow at 10:30 PM after Jack Harry had finished sports. Hopefully we recruited a new viewer who had relied on another forecast and never even considered us.

Do you see the challenge we face each day? The only thing in our control is to provide the best and most accurate weather information every single day. And, hopefully the rest of the city will catch on. I know a lot of you are with me on this.

I just thought this would be an interesting story to share with you this morning. I couldn't believe it. Let us know what you think.

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Gary:

Good morning sir!!! No Les Miserables or War and Peace this morning!!! Great story regarding last night!!! I have no doubts that the Action Weather Team will continue to increase its viewership-you are too good not to!!!! All somebody has to do is read this Blog and the way you discuss ideas with viewers-just outstanding!!!

The little novice weather nut here in Lawrence has a sinking feeling about this weekend. The only model that keeps a decent orgainized storm takes it way North (does the NAM not like us??? LOL) while the Euro and GFS have a weakening storm-imvho I could see us get some snow to start then some slop as the wave opens and weakens. I think, I think, the LRC tells us that this is what should occur as most of these ULL have weakened all winter as they ejected out. It just looks to me like we will have some warm air issues and maybe not even enough lift to create a very good precipitation shield.

However, the low is just now comming onto shore (I think) and there is a great fetch of moisture comming off the Pacific for it to interact with. The next few model runs will tell us much!!! To me, we just need a stronger ULL to overcome the warm air issues and throw enough qpf up here over us-but the LRC kind of argues against that-I think?? Have a great day-I will prob. steal some time in between classses today to check the 12Z modles-why, i don't know-and yea, I'll most likely stay up to see the 0z tomorrow-why why?? Because in the end, it is fun!!!!!!
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Bill,

We, as usual, have a few model runs to go. This system is initially way down there so there is a lot of hope.

Gary

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Gary I agree whole heartedly that observation is a key component to weather. Ben Franklin was very big on that. It is great that poeple in the KC area and even in Eastern Kansas are beginning to see the difference. I pay 100% attention to your forecast but I do listen and or watch 7 other "forecasts" including Topeka's NWS on my weather radio to compare and see who is starting to use your data or rely on computers. I find that many times other sources change the forecasts so many time in a week it makes my head spin yet you and your weather team seem very consistent and after the weather event is over there is no comparison. I realize that sometimes weather events do something that changes quickly and even catches everyone by surprise. But contine with your hard work. Our daughter who graduated from Washburn and moved to Overland Park watches you all the time. But again actual observation is a key element. I have been a lifelong Kansan and find the weather fascinating and unpredictible at times. Living on this side of the Rockies is a challenge for meteorologists because you don't know what the storms will do until they get out into the plains. I love to look at the clouds and use cloud formation, wind direction, barometer readings to try and form my own mini forecasts. Take care, Michael/Topeka
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Michael,

This is another frustrating storm to track, but it will be fun.

Gary

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I guess that I am amazed that the person who called wasn't aware of who they were calling! That would be like calling Walmart to complain about another grocery store chain. Glad to hear you got another viewer; that's always good to hear.
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Erin,

She said that her friend had looked up the number. Sometimes people think we are FOX, since we used to be Fox41 years ago. I think we still have an identity crisis.

Gary

Gary,
The 0Z and 6Z GFS seems to be consistent on the track of the vort during the last few model runs. I looked at the 500mb chart and the storm looks to track through southern Kansas and then move northeast. This model has also been consistent in generating at least .25-.50 inches of QPF. The sub-tropical connection is definatly in place with this type storm. The 540 thickness line is also south of us throughout the storm. Hopefully, the models will stay consistent today and continue to bring the storm farther south.
Devin
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Devin,

Yes, but the NAM has the system tracking to our north. If this happens then it may rain!

Gary

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NO,NO ,NO !!! Please dont say RAIN I want it to snow so bad as do my kids. We are long over due for some good snow. I do hope this storm pans out for us this time.
by the way I loved your story you bloged this morn about the lady calling you last night. I can say you are the only one I trust during the storms all the other stations just put numbers out there I think to make the public happy.

Hoping for a snow storm! keep up the hard work you all are doing a great job!
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Nikie,

We will see how it sets up. NO RAIN PLEASE, but NO ICE PLEASE either.

Gary

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Gary, Rule #1 is the most important rule and I believe that you and the NBC Action Weather Team are the only ones who actually use Rule #1. On a different note, I know you are always looking for ways to get the word out about increasing the number of viewers and I had an idea. I grew up in Omaha, NE and there is a TV channel up there (WOWT) that also broadcasts their entire day of television over the Radio on channel 87.7 FM. The reason I am bringing this up is - has anyone at NBC Action News looked into simulcasting the TV programming over the radio? The benefit is that while people are driving home from work (5PM & 6PM news) or coming home from dinner or a date (10PM news), they can turn on the radio and listen to the news since they are not at home and can't watch it. It is just a suggestion. I can't wait to see what the new data says about some snow this weekend. Mark
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Mark,

This has been done in Kansas City a few years ago. There are other ways, and the internet is the wave of the future.

Gary

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Gary,

I am trying to take my weather nuttiness to the next level, and actually study the models that are available on line. You are a great teacher...could you possibly (in your spare time ha ha) write a summary of what the different models are, your opinion of them, and most importantly, how to navigate to the right image? I was on one site recently (I think it was for the GFS model), and there were so many choices; I had no idea which run or view I should be concentrating on. Are there any basic weather classes offered nearby? Would you ever consider teaching a beginners class through some extension, say Communiversity?

Mike
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Mike,

I don't have the time right now to have a class, but through the blog we will continue to give pointers. Just keep working at it and you will see when the new data is coming in.

Gary

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Most of the time I like your blogs, but it really rubs me the wrong way about how your ego gets in the way. I knew it was going to snow because I listened to my NOAA weather radio. So for now...that's who I will stick since their ego never shows.
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Susan,

How is this my ego? I understand how you can interpret it that way. I was just sharing reality with you. Maybe I should just keep it to myself. It is the truth. This did happen last night. We all do have egos and now you take me back to earth. Let's stay positive.

Gary

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Gary,
Having been a police officer in Excelsior Springs, the call doesn't suprise me a bit, there is something strange in the water... Keep up the great work. Your dedication to weather, and to us your viewers is greatly appreciated. my kids are still praying fervently for snow. Me; I'm still waiting for 70F temps to return!
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Cris,

70 degrees is really going to feel good, but I want some snow first! Thanks for the support!

Gary

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Gary, if you can believe it, the NAM and GFS are both tracking the same storm, and both could be right! The ULL is weakening as it ejects into KS. The GFS is favoring the ULL weakening sooner and dropping the vort into the jet south of us. The NAM is favoring the ULL living just long enough to go north of us and drawing the vort into the northern stream. The SREF is a hybrid of both. I would say based on this last week, I would favor the GFS and say that ULL will die. [seems to be the trend] However, looking at the thickness >5400, the 850 temps..I think it will be cold enough to snow. I think the NAM is over estimating a little SE ridge. The GFS and SREF are consistent in minimizing it. Also, the NAM is minimizing the secondary polar push that actually bounces this ULL into oblivion. I am going to leave the NAM on this solution, and go with the SREF and GFS. The NAM still is a bit off in my opinion. The GFS has been consistent the last 3 runs along with the SREF.
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Scott,

I agree and by the time I am on the air tonight at 5 PM will I be going for a snowfall forecast accumulation or will I still have to wait?

Gary

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Ahhh man!! I was reading the other bloggers comments and saw the one about "identity crisis" yikes...the last station you want to have that happen with is them. LOLOLOLOL!!!! Glad you were able to answer the phone and help that lady find her way to a better news/weather station....maybe she will help spread the word for ya. I have recruited alot of new people for ya and I am still trying. Keep up the good work!!
Monica
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Monica,

Thank you. The comment before yours took it another way. Oh well. I better get back to just analyzing the weather.

Gary

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Gary..here is something for you to try. You indicated as a kid, you would do weather forecasting scenerios/games. Try it with these storms..but here is the catch. You cannot use the 500mb models. You can only use the LRC and the 850s/300s. Could you do it? Sounds absurd..but I bet you could do it...you could use the thickness to keep is kinda fair. What do ya think? I bet even at this, you would be pretty good..the LRC would keep you in the game. Now..imagine if you didn't believe the LRC...you would probably be pretty average. Now..knowing that, I bet that is how the other meteorologists without belief in the LRC feel...Just a hunch..but I think Weatherate verifies this.

LOL... ;-)
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Scott,

I don't want to play that game, but it could make me a better forecaster. Maybe I will try early next fall before the LRC sets up.

Do you like today's GFS? It looks nice.

Gary

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Gary,

I'm a rookie at this so please help me understand. The NWS as recent as 10 minutes ago has a Winter Storm Watch posted for almost all of Eastern Oklahoma, but stopping the watch at the Kansas border. Central and Southern Kansas have a Hazardous Weather Outlook posted. You mentioned the NAM has the system moving to our north. How can the NWS post all of these watches well to our south while the NAM has the storm going north? I'm very confused. Are these two separate lows or is the NWS that far off on their forecast?

Thanks!
Brad
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Brad,

The NWS may have the right idea. We will just have to see how it sets up. This is a very unique set up. And, the NAM may be very wrong. The GFS has the upper low coming right through us. The other factor is that we will have a cold air mass in place that extends down into Texas. So, there may be a fairly large area of snow that forms. In most situations this would be rain, but it may be cold enough for snow and we should know more soon.

Gary

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Gary, why is it when snow weather is coming our way, you seem to hold off until the last minute to give snow totals?
I understand predicting snow is hard, but can you give the viewer a general idea?
Just curious.

Thanks Gunner
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Gunner,

There are several reasons. Great question by the way. First of all if I were real confident in this situation then I would go for it. The way these storm systems are acting this season we just have to wait. On the last storm we waited, hesitated, and finally went 2 to 4 inches near the end. I wasn't even confident at that point and guess what happened. No snow accumulation. So, the correct way to handle last weekends storm was to say sleet may change to snow and there could be minor accumulations and leave it at that. Secondly forecasting snow amounts is actually just as hard as forecasting rainfall amounts but people notice it more. If we say it is going to rain 1/2 inch and then it drizzles all day and only 1/10th of an inch falls people think we were right because it rained all day. If we forecast an equivalent of 5 inches of snow and it snows all day and only 1 inch falls then people think we blew it. This is another reason we hesitate because I want to get it right. One last reason. We want to be consistent. I don't want to say 5 inches could fall, then the next day say 1 inch is possible. It would not be good for our credibility. So, this season is a tough one. I think we will come up with a prediction by tonight though. If we don't it will only be because I see some questions. Big questions on whether the snow will be significant or not.

Gary

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Gary...i'm still trying to learn how to read these weather maps, but it looks like to me the GFS has the storm a little stronger and on an almost perfect path for KC...am I reading it right? Also...accuweather's blog said that the 0z and 12z runs are the most accurate because they contain more data...is that true?
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Chris,

I would agree that the 00z and 12z runs are the most accurate, but when the weather pattern is changing you better buy those other in between runs. Many forecasters just disreguard them, which can be a huge mistake.

Gary

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Wasn't that other station recently telling us that we need calm during a storm, not drama, on their commercials? What we need is accuracy, and this is why you and your team have so many loyal fans. Get some rest for this weekend.
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Val,

Yes, and even though I can get excited, when there is a serious storm, especially when there is a threat of tornadoes I know we are calm too. I don't think they were attacking us.

Gary

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Gary,
You have your work cut out for you if people are calling you thinking you are a different station. What's up with people? Are they clueless? It doesn't take an Eistein to see that you and your team forecast so much better than the rest. I know you have many faithful viewers that continue to spread the word... Maybe someday everyone will watch 41 news(that's kind of like saying maybe someday there will be world peace). Hey, we can always dream big.
On another note, loved the pic of the Sleetman from the other blog. That is so Kansas. Really there are more opportunities for Sleetmen than Snowmen...
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Sheree,

Thanks, and I saw the way the ice was breaking off into those shapes. It is really the first sleetman I have ever seen.

Gary

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Gary:

Good mid morning!! As usuall, stealing a bit of time between classes to check the models-I'm like the first pilot in Top Gun-I've lost the edge!!!

Am I reading it correctly that the 12Z has a bit stronger ULL than previous runs and it is still tracking it between say Nevada and Kansas City but it looks like it has redeveloped the 850 low and takes that North of us??? The NAM still has it way north-but both give us decent qpf and I think the soundings look pretty good for both (not sure if I have figured out how to read those yet!!!)-Looks better I think, but I'm still weary of this; what I really need to do is quit hoping for the big dog (all those snows in Western Kansas has me stuck in big time snow mode-all or nothing deal!!)and take what we can get!!!

We need a GFS track (maybe a bit further south) with a NAM low!!! I think both ititalized the current placement pretty good. That ULL low looks pretty cool on satelite imagery!!!! Have a great day!!
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Bill,

The Canadian model brings it right through us as well. This is unique. Don't overanalyze until tomorrow. Too many model runs to go.

I agree with lowering your standards.

Gary

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Gary,

I think the blogger who criticized your ego made a statement that is not entirely accurate. There will always be critics out there, no matter what you say. Interpretation and perception of what you say can lead to opinions, not all of which will be favorable. But, for her to read/post on the blog should tell you that she has a decent level of interest in what you say and your forecast. Keep it up! Dont let one person ruin it for the rest of us.
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Thanks Scott!

Gary

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Well Well Well, that is pretty instresing. It seems that you got a another person to watch you guys. What doesnt make sense to me is how they could contact the wrong weather center. The 41 part got here I think and she maybe thought she contacted the "Station you used to work for.". Well, as long as you guys got 1 more person to watch you, thats all I care about. Well, this still surprises me. They call the wrong staion, tells you how could you do the weather cast with out something, realizes this is the WRONG staion, and decides to watch you. That doesnt happen very often, now does it? Well, maybe it will happen again tonight.
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Alden,

Channel 41 used to be Fox 41. A lot of people still think of us as that. It takes a great promotional campaign to end this problem. Maybe this is the direction we should go in.

Gary