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Bands of precipitation increasing
Light snow has been falling in many spots and now radar echoes are increasing. This may be sleet or freezing rain in the heavier echoes. Please be careful this afternoon with the icy spots out there. We will have more later today as the new data comes in. The Arctic air mass is just taking over and dominating and this is why we have seen the snowflakes already.
We will try to get to your comments and post them as we have time. Keep sending us information. It will be difficult to answer all of the questions today, but we will address some of them in our blog later on.
It is the beginning of a Major Winter Storm. Did you see the article in the Kansas City Star today. I thought it was very fair and they quoted the blog on the entry from December 21st predicting this situation.
Posted by at January 12, 2007 11:55 AM
Any data in yet on how much snow we might get?
Posted by: Jonathan at January 12, 2007 11:57 AM
Thanks for the update, Gary. Nice work. I noticed that the link for "Gary's Lezak's Weather Forecast" is still showing Wednesday's information. When I saw the temps I thought, "That can't be right." Just wanted to pass that along; I know you're super-busy. Thanks.
Posted by: Joseph at January 12, 2007 11:57 AM
Roads are becoming very slick here in Lee's Summit Mo. We are seeing light freezing rain and some snow flurries. Stores around here are going crazy. I'm sitting at school and my teacher has another station on and they are saying 5" - 8" of snow on Sunday. What do you think?
Posted by: Jacob at January 12, 2007 12:00 PM
----12pm Report From Grain Valley/Blue Springs---
Side roads are very slick, but main roads are just wet...very very light mist/ice/snow
Posted by: Chris at January 12, 2007 12:02 PM
Gary and the weather team, it is still snowing here in Topeka at noon. We only have a dusting to maybe half an inch in some places. It should be interesting to see what transpires over the next 12-24 hours. Keep up the good work. michael/Topeka
Posted by: michael huffman at January 12, 2007 12:17 PM
Mixing in with the snow grains is definate sleet hitting my patio doors in Lenexa at 1223.
Posted by: Jeri Correll at January 12, 2007 12:23 PM
Just got back from the grocery store in South Overland Park. VERY SLICK! Saw many accidents. Please be careful everyone!
Posted by: Jill at January 12, 2007 12:25 PM
It's sleeting at Crown Center!
Posted by: Anthony at January 12, 2007 12:34 PM
I live at college and Pflumm in Lenexa and at 1230 had a rapid change over to sleet and snow. I looked at the models and noticed the ETA gives us a big snow but the GFS doesn't, how do you pick one or do you just cross the 2 together. Also all the precip in SE KS is making a bee line to the metro and points south wasn't this suppose to be more to the east? will today yield more precip than first thought? Thanks Your the best!
Posted by: Stephen at January 12, 2007 12:35 PM
Hey Gary & Team
Getting very heavy sleet at 83rd & Santa Fe in OP. It has really picked up in the last 15 min. Thank you!
Posted by: CJ at January 12, 2007 12:49 PM
Gary: I attended the "bloggers meeting" last week. The friend I brought was skeptical of the LRC. Not anymore!
You really do seem to be onto something. The only hangup I have is the varying length of the cycle, year-to-year. However, the similarities of this event to the storm of 11/29 - 12/1 are too striking to be considered coincidence. I'm already adjusting my plans for the weekend of 2/24-25 as that is when I'll be expecting another major winter storm!
The big features are the ones that come close to repeating each time through the cycle. It isn't just this one storm but every day that is going through the cycle.
Posted by: Craig at January 12, 2007 12:50 PM
Out here in Lenexa we had a 20 minute period of light to moderate snow. There is now a dusting on top of the cars. Time to bring on the real stuff.... don't play with us mother nature! :)
Posted by: Tyler at January 12, 2007 12:50 PM
At 12:48 PM it's really looking like a snow globe outside my window at 92nd and Ward Parkway.
I'm wondering if things are much worse at my home in Lee's Summit. I'll need to start driving home soon.
Happy New Year Gary, and to all your weather team.
Posted by: AnneMarie at January 12, 2007 12:50 PM
I'm up in Liberty and we just in the last 10 minutes started to get more precip. Right now it seems to be sleet. Our roads weren't slick as of about 20 minutes ago (I was out and about) but I have a feeling that will change very soon.
I LOVE this weather blog! I check it all the time instead of channel surfing to try to catch the weather. (except of course when you guys are on!)
My husband says I'm addicted to you!
Samantha in Liberty
Posted by: Samantha at January 12, 2007 1:08 PM
The article made me giggle. I will save those comments for a slow day. So much for the dry slot...its north of us. We are right where we need to be. Bring it on! I can finally start getting excited!
Posted by: Scott at January 12, 2007 1:20 PM
By Ward Pkwy Mall... looks like all snow till you step outside and get pelted in the face by sleet. Roads aren't too bad but worse than I thought they'd be at this time today.
Has this storm skipped the freezing rain part and gone straight to snow? Freezing rain is worthless. Snow is great.
Posted by: hank at January 12, 2007 1:24 PM
Update from eastern Ray County sleeting like crazy and untreated roads.
Posted by: Tim at January 12, 2007 1:28 PM
Overland Park, Sprint Campus has snow and it has been snowing since about 12:30. OKC is reporting to us that currently at 1:26 it's light rain but freezing on contact, Tulsa at the same time is reporting freezing mist, but the roads are still fine. Hope this helps you out.
Posted by: Kevin at January 12, 2007 1:28 PM
Snow is moderate here in Bonner Springs, I see the radar echoes, you think mayber 1-2"
Posted by: Preacher at January 12, 2007 1:29 PM
Continual light snow mixed with sleet and rain falling currently in Lenexa, KS. Ground is covered. My wife is flying in tomorrow from LAX and is supposed to land at MCI around 6:30pm. Do you think that there will be any major weather delays or cancelations tomorrow?
Posted by: Jeff at January 12, 2007 1:31 PM
The moderate to heavy sleet has started here in Greenwood, looks like the start of a long afternoon! My driveway is a sheet of ice!
Tim in GW
Posted by: Tim in Greenwood at January 12, 2007 1:31 PM
Some Heavy Sleet and Freezing rain is falling in Platte City
Posted by: Charles at January 12, 2007 1:49 PM
It is sleeting very hard here in Southeast Lee's Summit and is extremely slick!!!!
Posted by: Mike & Jenn at January 12, 2007 1:49 PM
HEAVY sleet in Smithville 1:50
Posted by: Renee at January 12, 2007 1:54 PM
In Harrisonville we have only had an extremely light glazing of ice. We are getting moderate sleet and have been for hours. Other stations have put us in an ice storm warning. Do you think we will still see a lot of ice? Do you think it will change back to freezing rain later in the day or Saturday?
Keep us updated. Sleet is better than freezing rain.
Posted by: Brent at January 12, 2007 1:58 PM
Freezing rain and sleet coming down pretty hard in Lees Summit near Longview Lake. We already went to the stores before the lines became to packed. We are looking for a good winter punch. We have a week old baby girl and Grandma & Great Grandma have left back to Nebraska. They were here for the week and made us lots of dinners and stored them in the deep freeze.We have every thing we need. -Mike & Kristine
Posted by: Mike & Kristine at January 12, 2007 2:30 PM
Dear Gary , I am so excited to see how much snow we will get. I go to Corinth Elementary in the Shawnnee Mission School District. I am a good friend of Roberto who you now very well by now. We don't have school monday because of M.L. King day. But we can always hope for no school on Tuesday! I can't wait to see your snow prediction tongiht on the news, I can't wait to find out how much snow we will get! I will write again later. Peace.
Posted by: Callie at January 12, 2007 2:43 PM
Why isnt the NWS issuing anything ie. Winter Storm Warning, Winter Storm Watch up North if it is looking like we are in for a nasty storm Please do not tell me down we will not get anything I am tired of down south getting everything the way radar trends are showint it looks like the Heaviest precip is south of town and possible even into South KC I want it to be across the entire metro.
Posted by: Charles at January 12, 2007 2:47 PM
As of 3:00 current Overland Park Condition
Temp 16.3 degrees
Barometer 30.36 inches
Winds hovering around 10mph
light snow mixing with sleet
Main roads have been treated (ie. Metcalf, 95th, 119th) but side roads are very dangerous.
We will update you again in a couple hours.
Jennifer and Kelsey
Posted by: Jennifer and Kelsey at January 12, 2007 3:01 PM
At 3pm in Olathe near court house a ton of sleet falling. The pellets seem bigger than normal too. Too wild it is 16 and not snowing!!
I hope it changes too so we do not have too thick of a layer of ice under the snow this weekend.
Posted by: Leonard at January 12, 2007 3:08 PM
We are about 40 hours away from Sunday when the main weather is supposed to kick in. Can't you tell how much snow will fall yet?
Posted by: Leonard at January 12, 2007 3:12 PM
Gary 15 degrees here in Wyandotte County.
Posted by: Alden at January 12, 2007 3:13 PM
Wow! at Lake Waukomis about 3:30 or 3:45 it was sleeting so hard it sounded like water running- had to go check the faucets- then opened the back door---glad I got my groceries. Thank you Gary & weather team for your passion and dedication to weather. I trust your forcasts. I appreciate your time and hard work!
Posted by: tooti roe at January 12, 2007 3:54 PM
Gary,The latest NAM and GFS charts appear to show the whole thing moving south faster than first thought. Maybe no snow?
Posted by: GaryB at January 12, 2007 3:57 PM
About a .25" of sleet at 162nd and Mur-len, maybe a litle more. It looks more and more like the last major winter storm!
Posted by: Rob at January 12, 2007 4:33 PM
There were a couple of ice rain down pours here earlier in pleasanton, ks. It is quiet now, what are we in for and should we prepare for any power outages. Thanks.
Posted by: chris at January 12, 2007 4:52 PM
.60" of sleet in my rain gauge here in Greenwood and still falling. Getting heavy spurts then it lightens up, then heavy again, etc.
Tim in GW
Posted by: Tim in Greenwood at January 12, 2007 4:54 PM
Ward Pkwy Mall area -
6:00. Super heavy sleet. My gutters are full and the sleet runs down the roof and over the gutters. Quite a site. When a gust of wind comes up you can barely see beyond all the sleet sliding off the roof.
Posted by: hank at January 12, 2007 5:03 PM
some snow fluries earlier, sleet now, getting slick in st jo
Posted by: jon at January 12, 2007 5:22 PM
I live in Platte City and have not had that much fall here. Are we going to get missed again.
Posted by: Chris at January 12, 2007 5:30 PM
Gary does it look like the sleet will change to Frz Rain when more moisture goes over that cold front I know i sound wierd but sleet is boring. Here in Appleton City weve had a steady dose of Sleet all day long. And I saw the forecast and you said a wide swath of 2-4 in of snow for almost the entire viewing area does that include us down here?
Posted by: daniel at January 12, 2007 5:43 PM
Gary and the weather team,
It's been sleet/freezing rain w/a little snow mixed in from time to time here in KCKS/Wyandotte County since around 1pm this afternoon. Main and Side streets are still fair but then I have a AWD truck with tires made for snow and ice so it gets around like a tank for both stopping and starting. Good luck to all going home and be carefull. Remember moderate speed, extra stopping distance and keep your eyes open for the other drivers around you.
Posted by: Jim at January 12, 2007 5:55 PM
I am NOT liking this no precip line. If we dont get snow again, I'm going to be mad! Do you think that us up here in the Western and Northern parts of the city will finally get some snow, compared to Nov. 30th? We all really want it, and I couldnt stand going again without anything! So, do you think that we could get something, and do you have a snowfall forecast map set up for us? I hope it has the heaviest snowfall here in Wyandotte.
Posted by: Alden at January 12, 2007 6:05 PM
Here in Independence, off of highway 291 and 23rd street, it has been sleeting since around 2pm. As of 1830 we had slightly over a half an inch of sleet. It was currently sprinkling sleet, but has been moderate at times this afternoon. Will let you know in the morning what accumulated overnight.
Posted by: Kevin at January 12, 2007 6:46 PM
Hi Gary! Another weather man in town said that later this weekend it will get cold enough to snow. That made no sense to me so I thought I would ask you. Isn't it cold enough right now (Friday night) to snow?
Yeah, that is almost right. It is cold enough to snow, but not above us. So you must say, that eventually it will cool off aloft to allow it to snow.
Posted by: Amy at January 12, 2007 6:50 PM
Good Evening Gary, I would hate to be right about this, but is the High Pressure sitting over the Gulf of Mexico going to push the ULL to far north to give us snow?
Looks like the Pacific moisture is starting to shut off over west Texas.
I don't know much about reading the models, this is just an observation from looking at the water vapor loop along with the infered Satalite loop.
Love having this blog, although I spend to much reading it!
The upper level low may weaken in just the right way to give us a few hours of heavy snow Sunday evening. I am waiting on the new data.
Posted by: Kelly at January 12, 2007 7:19 PM
It looks like it is still sleeting in Bonner. the roads are completely covered and there is a dusting on the grass.
Posted by: Keri Worley at January 12, 2007 7:36 PM
Well we're done here in Greenwood for now and we have 1.1' of sleet! How much in liquid precip does that translate to?
Tim in GW
Posted by: Tim in Greenwood at January 12, 2007 7:44 PM
Well we had a very light dusting of snow and 5 minutes of sleet around 4:00 P.M. and thats it. I hope this is not a sign of the rest of this storm, the models still give us the snow, but...
Nick(still in hopeing mode) in cold St. Joe!
I have noticed this! It is trying very hard to do the same type of precipitation pattern as the last snow and ice storm.
Hopefully you will be happy in the end.
Posted by: Nick Rau at January 12, 2007 7:59 PM
NO! The Upper Low CANT fall apart! (Weather Plus online.) If it does the well Ill be madder. I know that by now you could be looking at the new data, and does it show the storm holding together very strongly? I think that we will get MORE than 2-4inches of snow. What do u think. But, really, this storm is tracking south. By the way, NBC Weather PLUS didnt event give us snow. Any reason why. I think we will get X-treamly heavy snow.
Posted by: Alden at January 12, 2007 8:23 PM
Gary, I love what I am seeing in the newest NAM. Looks like the vort is splitting the ULL and bringing some 500mb energy where it needs to go. Looks like it may track just s or over Joplin. This storm will be just like the last one...forming just ahead of when we get snow.
YOU SHOULD BE RIGHT! The energy around the upper low goes through a transition and reforms. It appears that it should take off negatively tilted south of us, and you can imagine what would happen if it did, but the models say NO. It just doesn't look good. So close.
Posted by: Scott at January 12, 2007 8:31 PM
i have about a 1/2 of sleet here in liberty..are there any signs of the snowfall totals getting higher..Models are still hard to tell tho...
Posted by: kyle at January 12, 2007 8:37 PM
I have to echo the comments of another northwest of KC'er. I feel so sick watching the radars and hearing everyone's stories of the heavy sleet, etc. I feels just like Nov. 30th when I sat watching radars and the news seeing everyone else get all the action and we didn't even see a flake. I'm trying really hard to not give up yet, when according to most reports, the "big" part of the storm won't even be here until tomorrow. I hope so, I don't think I could stand being so depressed about missing out again. My 4 year old has been asking for over 2 months when he's going to get to make a snowman. :(
Posted by: Stacey at January 12, 2007 9:01 PM
Gary this is incredable. the last storm i was so mad it did not snow. Looks like were left out again for us north of Platte City. Bored in De Kalb Dallas Mike
Posted by: michael at January 12, 2007 9:06 PM
Hey Gary Big fan....I am on KC Live, as your product tester..I know Brett..Love Your forcast..IT's WINTER!!! BRING ON THE SNOW!!!
Posted by: Liz Mundil at January 12, 2007 9:16 PM