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Weather Team,

I was wondering: does all this sleet and freezing rain we got make any kind of snow pack? Obviously it is cold but I was wondering if it had the same effect on temperatures as several inches of snow. Thanks.

-Shawn
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Shawn,

It may have an impact tonight. I think last nights below zero happened because of it.

Gary

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Great picture of you and Breezy Gary! Having two Alpha Dogs in the house (Popeye and Hoss) I totally understand. Patience, consistancy and being firm, you'll get there! Good luck.
Oh yeah...Windy left a couple toys out in the yard, she would like to know when this will thaw so she can retrieve them...ha!
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Deb,

It is going to be tough, but this is why I decided to get her trained. She already does most of the tricks Stormy does. We will see how the next few months go.

Gary

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Now gary even *I* can tell you what will happen. Trenton will get missed, and it will snow everywhere but trenton.
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Glen,

You are really making me life right now. I needed that. Well, we will see if we are still thinking it may snow on Thursday. Then, we can talk about Trenton. There is a dwindling area still waiting for their first one inch of snow and you are near the middle. For those of you who don't know Trenton has had around 3/4" of snow so far this season.

Gary

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Gary:

I 100% agree about the action weather blog-it is an awesome place to discuss weather and show our enthusiasim for it-a place where we can actually shout: hey I like weather and I'm proud of it!!!! I did not have any intention of trying to make snide remarks about other stations and I apologize if it came across as such. I should not have typed that last sentence and would not have if I had reread before hitting post.

My real thought and reason was about the temps. tonight-I'm interersted to see how low we can go with clear skies and the "ice" pack (if you can all it that!!) Again, I apologize for sounding like I was going to begin saying he said she said they said etc etc. This is a fantastic place to discuss weather and will always remain as such!!!!
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Bill,

I didn't mean that at all. I was sort of responding more to Alden and making some points. I know there are viewers out there that don't like me at all, and then there are others that understand my passion and obviously many of you share that passion. This passion is really one of the biggest differences! This is a great place to share and I never intend to offend anyone, EVER. I rarely hold anything back, so sometimes it can be tough.

The temperatures are dropping, but there is a limit. I have seen nights like this where the high moves off to your south and east and the temperatures stop going down. But, the ridge is still near us all night, so I am expecting near zero in the morning. I won't be shocked if it is 10 degrees either. It will be interesting. These are the toughest nights to forecast that low. It is down to 7 degrees in St. Joseph before 8 PM. So, I think it is happening.

Gary

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Gary
My house has just been making the most HORRIBLE popping noises last night and now again tonight. We've had cold weather and ice like this before, but never had our house make this kind of noise. In talking with my mom, mom in-law, sister-inlaw and niece, come to find out, they've all experienced the same thing. (We all thought it was an explosion at first!) I guess having such warm weather the last month and sudden frigid temps. is causing this?
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Becky,

It must be the hardness of the ice. It is tough.

Gary

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Stop teasing us with the idea of real snow. haha.
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Crystal,

I don't like teasing, what a battle it is this season to get it to snow.

Gary

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Great picture Gary of you and Breezy. Just keep encouraging Breezy and you two will break through. We rescued a 3 year old 100% border collie a year and a half ago from Helping Hands and she has turned out to be a great girl. She gets along fine with our other three except she thinks they are sheep. Anyway I think the weather pattern is as it is and even though I am from the old school, the LRC is true to form. Tahnks Gary and your weather team and the blog. Michael/Topeka
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Michael,

Breezy will get better, I just know it. Thanks for the kind words.

Great observation. "The weather pattern is as it is". This is what we say almost every day. The good and the bad of the LRC. We know what is likely next even if the computer models are exciting.

Gary

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It appears that this cold air is going to stick around for some time while the Southern Jet will continue to pump some moisture up. I am guessing we can anticipate some snow storms during the rest of winter.

What do you guys think?
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Brian,

The models are likely very wrong about the length and strength of the cold air. It is just like early December. It looked like it would be cold for a long time, but it lasted about 10 days before we warmed up. I have been ignoring the GFS the past few days.

Gary

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Hey Gary,
It's 9:44 and it's 11 degrees in Indep MO.
Cute dog...
i think the snow will be light on sunday, but snow...
have a wonderful night, ryan.
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Ryan,

Thanks for the update. The temperatures may stop falling as the high moves east of us. We will see how low it goes tonight.

Gary

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Hey Gary! Great new picture of you and Breezy! Oh, and sorry for keeping you on the phone right before you were going on the air.

Jacob
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Jacob,

Don't worry about it. As we go into next week let me know if you hear anything else?

Gary

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Gary,

Breezy sure has grown since you first introduced us about a year ago.

I wouldn't mind some actual snow this weekend. As long as we don't get the ice we got this last weekend. I love snow, just don't like the ice that seems to come with it down here.

Lynn
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Lynn,

That picture makes her look really big. She is still very small by German Shepard standards, but Stormy wouldn't agree. She is much bigger than Stormy. Stormy still rules the house though.

Gary

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What do you think about the 2nd storm the GFS is picking up on giving us some light snow on Tue/Wed timeframe next week
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Charles,

It is something to watch, but I doubt it. There is probably a better chance out of this first one. Which we are keeping at 20% for now. By later today we will up the probability if it becomes more realistic.

Gary

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Gary:

Good Morning sir!!! Very cold morning indeed-I’m sitting at about 7 degrees currently-only thing missing is the full moon-wow-that would really be beautiful to see a full moon glistening off the ice cover this morning!!!

As a weather novice, this next week looks very complicated indeed. I think the WV satellite imagery tells a lot-you can see a huge amount of moisture streaming in from the tropical Pacific and the next ULL diving into California-if that does not dive too far south and interacts with that moisture plume we could for sure have some precipitation this weekend-how it all plays out is still up in the air-how much of this cold air gets eroded out is a real key to the puzzle imho and one we may not really know until the time of the event.

It does look like we may see one more shot of true arctic air early next week; however, it does not seem to me that we are now in some sort of cold air pattern scenario. This, to me, is where the LRC is champion and once again shows itself as an incredible tool. Looking at past 500 ht. maps from October till now, the whole thing is there-in nice little line contours!!! The longer range models are beginning to shift the ridge further and further east which in turn pushes the colder temp. anomalies further east; just as the LRC predicts should happen. The biggest difference for us, imho, is that the NWT and Alberta will at least stay normal to just slightly above normal-that is cold enough air to work with and much colder than they were in December and early January. It reminds me of the cycle part of October more than December in that Canada was colder in October than in December. The other thing I have noticed on satelite and from the models is that the Alaskan Vortex looks to be redeveloping which would again allow the Pacific to overwhelm the pattern-again, like the LRC says it should do. My main hang up as far as another true arctic outbreak in the next few weeks (after possibly Monday) for us is that most of the cold air anomalies are going to shift to around the Hudson Bay-that is not where historically we need the cold air to be-Yellowknife is not going to be massively below normal for the next few weeks which tells me there is not an arctic build up ready to pounce on us. I would bet by about this time next week, even the Hudson Bay area will be back to normal temps; all following the LRC to a T!!! My guess is that by mid next week we are back to having temps. normal to slightly above. However, the waves that come across will still have colder air to work with as it looks like Canada will stay normal to just slightly above-it doesn’t have to be 40 below in Canada for us to get snow. The other thing that I thought about last night as our winds shifted to the south is that we just do not have sustained blocking in upper NA-the only perm. Block we have had is that persistent SE ridge centered over the Bahamas. Of course, the LRC shows this clear as a bell!!!

Once again, I realize that I have gone on and on and am not even sure if this is coherent; I'm going to post it anyways!!! Thanks for reading-I fully admit that I am a novice at best who enjoys trying (I emphasize trying!!!) to see what the weather will do. I again appreciate you reading my Blog entries. I just think that the LRC is the key to the whole thing and will not be denied. The biggest difference between now and December imho is that Canada has cooled back off and prob. Will not massively warm back up even with the Pacific again exerting strong influence. The good news is that we don’t need a true arctic blast to get snow-a strong cold front setteling down with a storm coming up from the 4 corners and we are golden-maybe one of those cut off ULL will do the trick-like possibly (I mean possibly) this weekend!!!! Have a great day and thanks again!!!

Oh, by the way great picture. We are going to purchase our first family dog this summer-I may ask you some advice if possible!!!!
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Bill,

Well, I read another book by Bill Gollier this morning (LOL). I don't mind as you make a lot of valid points. I should just post your message as my blog entry this morning.

The GFS runs of the past few days have been EXTREMELY COLD and for a very long time. I know it doesn't fit the LRC and the 06z run is more realistic as you have discussed above. The ECMWF model has been showing the more zonal flow development in the long range. What fits is another cold shot next week and then a warm up. We will see if this happens.

Gary

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Gary,
Really great picture of you and Breezy. I've been wondering why she wasn't with you at the school projects. Hope the issues get straightened out. She has to have her own personality. And Tom is tired of chopping away at this ice, will it end soon??? The snow fort looked like an igloo he made with grandson.
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Ginger,

Breezy is really a great dog. She is like a small German Shepard, so she has many of those instincts to protect me. But, she is so sweet once you get to know her. We will work on the issues.

Gary

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Morning Gary. Looks like the weather pattern should remain stable over the next 10 days which goes along with your theory.
Great shot of Breezy and you. We rescued a 100% 3 year old Bordie Collie from Helping Hands a year and a half ago and she has really settled down. I am sure Breezy will work through the issues. As I view other long range forecasts from other sources, I am convinced that computers are relied upon for accuracy (not), however that is why I enjoy your forecasts because of the effort that is put into it and not a lot of changing the numbers as some do in the long range forecasts. Keep up the good work. Michael/Topeka
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Michael,

It is amazing isn't it. The NWS and others basing these new foreasts long range on a current model or two. This will only bring more credibility to my theory as the pattern is still the same and cycling despite all of these, what some call, changes in El Nino, PDO, AO, etc. It will be more evidence that shows those ocean temperature anamolies are only influences on something MUCH BIGGER, the LRC!

Gary

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Gary,

I believe the difference between now and December (after the cold) is the position of the UL high off the California coast. It seems that this high is positioned further north than it was in December. This would tap more air from northen Canada keeping us cool at least. Also I believe the northern jet is more established and further south. So with this being said I believe the temperature for the next few weeks should be around normal to slightly below normal. The real questions are the two late Dec. wet storms. How will they repeat? We know that they will act different but in what way?
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James,

Yes and no. I am thinking we will trend to back above average for the most part. But, I am not convinced yet. I am totally basing it on the pattern. After this cold wave releases and exits to the northeast next week it will be interesting to see how much cold air is left in Canada to tap.

Gary

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Try both positive as well as negative conditioning with Breezy for good results. I rescued a shepherd mix who was 8 months old and had major issues with my cats (she wanted to eat them). I was able to train this out of her by feeding her treats whenever the cats were in the room and she was behaving and by "corrections" and then isolation (or something else that the dog would hate) when she was acting aggressive toward them. Took about 6-8 months but worked like a charm!
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Sky,

Thank you for the advice. We are doing these things with Breezy's trainer right now. Hopefully she will learn more and more that she can trust everything and everyone. If you met her you would think she is wonderful and smart, well adjusted. But, she then changes on a dime with some dogs and kids. I think that in 6 months she will be much better and this is why we are working with the trainer.

Gary

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Methinks you should invite the Dog Whisperer in and do a segment on Breezy's training :)

Love,

2nd littlest brother Scott
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Scott,

They call Breezy's trainer "the dog whisperer of the northland". So, maybe she can be magical.

Gary

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Gary,

Last Saturday's tsunami resulting from an 8.2 earthquake near the Kuril Islands affected ocean currents around the globe. What impact, if any, might this have on weather patterns?

- 2nd Littlest Bro :)
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Uh oh, my brother is part of the blog. It is nice hearing from you. By the way, Scott has two kids and lives in the high desert near Palmdale California.

Scott, no affects from the tsunami! At least no weather affects!

Brother Gary

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Hi Gary,

Your picture with Breezy is really adorable. Just wanted to comment on the dog training. We just added a little cockapoo puppy to our family and he is the cutest thing.We are trying to "train" him already. We have an older dog and she isn't fond of the puppy, but we are working on it. Anyway, we have been watching "The Dog Whisperer" on National Geographic Channel, he has some great insight about dog psychology. Just thought I would pass this along.
Thanks for the best weather coverage, always!

Anja
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Anja,

They are calling my trainer the "dog whisperer of the northland". We will see.

Gary