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Brett, it is really great to have you blogging so much. Just like you mentioned, it is nice to hear your thoughts on what is going on as well. As for the arctic invasion, are the models showing any storms coming thru around the same time? We could always use another nice snowstorm! Mark

P.S. You won't see me at the plunge! Not yet at least.
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The pattern would suggest there should be a storm around the 4th or 5th and the GFS overnight model run had a significant storm crossing the Central Plains on the 7th.

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Brett,Our roads are still a thick sheet of smooth ice and it seems all my neighbors and I do is help each other up the hill. If the roads don't clear up this week I'm afraid this arctic spell aint gonna help things much. When will the blast subside and warm back up enough for some significant melting?

Fayetteville Jim
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Jim,
I hoping Friday and Saturday will help. Upper 40s or 50s with a lot of sun will help areas exposed to the sun, those roads in the shade may need some human help.

Brett

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hi brett... heard you on BZ this morning talking about the Plunge and going in costume. i don't think there's ANY costume that i would wear that would prevent cardiac arrest if i tried that! good luck and have fun!

btw... maybe gary didn't mention it in the blog or on air for "competitive" reasons, but he will be featured in a one-on-one interview this friday evening with victor hogstrom on KCPT-19. i think it is at 8 or 8:30 - so no conflict with KSHB's newscasts! check out their site for more if you're interested! - mt
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Hey Mike,
Thanks for the heads up. I will be watching Friday night.

Brett

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Good morning Brett, I looked at the long range maps and the Artic Air looks impressive but maybe sliding to the east a little? However one other source is saying that the first week of Feb looks to be very active as far as winter weather and storms goes. Interesting. Thanks for your work. Michael/Topeka
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Michael,
Yeah, I noticed that slighly east shift, I think that's why we may only be in the 20s instead of the teens. Still there looked to be a shortwave kicking in some colder air the first full week of next month.
Brett

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do you think it looks good for another big snow storm for next weekend?

i hope so i just love the snow i dont much care for the cold.....but i guess you have to deal with the cold to get the snow.

nikie
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Nikie,
Hi, The pattern sets up with some potential for a storm the first week of February. Let's see what happens.

Brett

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Brett

You and the weather team are doing a great job. As far as the cold goes, my Huskies won't mind. They are loving the snow now and love it even more when it's cold outside.

Can't make the plunge, I'll be at work..
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Sure Bill, work, riiiigggght. Just kidding.
Brett

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Brett
I have plans for Super Bowl next weekend and need to fly out Thursday evening, will the weather at KCI cooperate?
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Tony,
Looks good, just cold, no ice as of now. Have fun!
Brett

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How is Thursday February 1 looking for weather, that is the date I am leaving for Super Bowl

Thank you
TOny
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Tony,
Just cold and partly cloudy.
Brett

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Brett, big fan of the morning show I hope you continue to blog early in the morning with any info you have I hope we get those storms in febuary I will take ice sleet or snow I like all winter weather Jerry in the northland
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Jerry,
Thanks for watching. I'll do my best.
Brett

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Brett:

Thanks for the response!!! How are things with the new little one?? Fun times for sure!!!!

I did notice that storm on the 06Z GFS and also that we look to take a direct hit with the cold air on that particular run. Just crazy!!! It looks like the next 2-3 weeks could be very interesting-fun to follow for sure!!!

Two random/"10 cent Ideas"..
1. The southern Jet has been quite active this past two months so we may be in good shape with that
2. If I am even close to reading this "LRC pattern" correctly the Bermuda High/SE ridge has played a huge role and been there all winter-(I think it has helped push those ULL a bit north of us)this could be a real factor in where the cold air goes and where storms travel- I think????

How ever it works out, this past 2 weeks have already made this winter better than last years-we are now talking about gravy or the cherry on top!!! Will be fun to see it evolve and again prove the LRC!!! Have a great day!!!!!
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Bill,
I completely agree. Funny story since you asked about my little one. I have a 2 and 5 year old and after days of cajoling, my two year finally ventured out in the snow yesterday and promptly headed for the sandbox! Yeah, I think he's destined for a warmer climate.

Brett

Bill..interesting point about the Bermuda High. In my tropical focus, we pay attention to this greatly as it will affect how/where hurricanes line up for the US. This last year, its strength steered more of the storms up toward the eastern seaboard..opposed to the Gulf. The Bermuda High is persistant…that is to say, it is always there. In fact, because of that high, the ocean itself actually has a “mound� or “hump�. I would not say its part of the LRC as it is persistent, but its affect can certainly affect how ULLs move through the Midwest and East.

One way to measure the affect of the Bermuda High is the AMO, I believe…I think this has a large factor in that measurement. But this leads to the importance of teleconnections. As much as the Bermuda High is always there, and fluxuates..it also affects other persistent ULLs and other Highs. This is where you get all these teleconnection oscillation cycles and strengths. I have yet found an accurate way to tie this to the LRC, but believe if one were to take the PNA and AMO [strongest oscillations that affect North America] and their daily values, and map that to the LRC day by day, you may find a relationship. I believe that the LRC is a unique method of actually both trending patterns, and persistent features. The LRC measure these in cycles based on feature model observations…the method of mapping this to the teleconnections may shed another statistical view of the LRC as it directly maps to these cycles. I don’t believe that any one of these oscillations create the LRC, but in unison, I do believe they may affect the mini cycles. Because of this relationship I believe exists, this is why I think that ocean behavior affects the LRC, as the ocean behaviors greatly affect these oscillations.

Just my opinion, but this is something that would be interesting to see if we can tie it all together somehow…

Gary/Team…thoughts?

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I know we're talking about winter weather, so this doesn't seem like the time. However, I noticed on the NWS site there's already a severe weather spotter class next week. Do you plan to have any of those classes and, if so, when?
Thanks!

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Matt,

We(NBC Weather Team) don't plan on having any severe weather classes this spring. We do recommend attending one of the NWS spotter classes. They do a good job for both beginners and advanced spotters. It is always a good idea to brush up on severe weather information after a 3-5 month break from severe storms. Plus you get to see some really cool pics. We do plan on having another bloggers meeting at a later date(TBD).

Jeremy