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Freezing Rain, Sleet & Snow
During the next 48 hours we are monitoring 2 more rounds of precipitation.
Round #1: This occurs Noon-7 PM Saturday. It appears this will be freezing rain & sleet. The new data suggests it may be more freezing rain as the atmosphere is warmer than yesterday. Freezing rain is more slick than sleet as it causes glazing. Untreated areas will become very slick this afternoon. Still use caution in treated areas.
Round #2: Sunday afternoon. It looks like this will be snow & sleet. There are 2 factors in deciding on how much snow falls. First, how much sleet will occur before the changeover to snow. Second, the main storm, now in the southwest USA, will weaken as it moves northeast towards us. As Gary said last night it goes "poof" as it reaches the Plains. So, how long will it hold together? Also, it looks like what ever is left will track north. Based on the new data, we have dropped amounts a bit to 1"-3". We feel at this time we may have sleet for awhile tomorrow afternoon and the main storm refuses to remain organized. Keep in mind, it is still 36 hours away. This is not set in stone, but the trend is not good for snow lovers.
Posted by at January 13, 2007 8:39 AM
Posted by: Brian at January 13, 2007 8:43 AM
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What is causing the storm to fall apart when it reaches us? All this tracking, waiting and hoping and it decides it's going to disappear when it reaches us? That storm has a sick sense of humor.
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Marlina,
There is a wave digging down the west coast tomorrow and this helps kick out and shear this storm. The same wave was in a different position the last time through the cycle.
Gary
Posted by: Marlina at January 13, 2007 8:54 AM
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weather team-
How is this storm shaping up around KCI this evening? Are you still expecting it to stay south like it did in November? Or do you think it will move farther north this time?
Keep up the good work, I don't trust anyone else but you!
Wade
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Wade,
It is still impacting the southern areas more again this time. There will be some increased precipitation up north today and then again late Sunday.
Gary
Posted by: wade at January 13, 2007 8:57 AM
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So I guess it's "Pop goes the Upper Low." instead of weasel. Well, since 3" is nowhere near what I would like, I just guess we will have to wait. Well, (to me), so much for a snowstorm. Yes i do know that this storm is set up for a major snowstorm, but it just doesnt seem like it. Who knows, maybe in another 6hrs it will give us 18" of snow again, just like last time. Thats what we should hope for atleast.
Posted by: Alden at January 13, 2007 8:58 AM
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Jeff:
Good Morning to you sir!!! I know you are really busy but if you happen to get the time, I have a question. On the site that I use, Wright-Weather, the 12Z NAM has us in a 1/4 inch of qpf from 21Z Sunday through 03Z Monday. I blogged with Gary and he said you guys did not like it as it dry slotted us-I see or I think I do that the 850 low is tracking over the top of us and I can see why there would be a dry slot (I still don't buy that tracking over us fwiw) but the qpf is there-The soundings have the colum below freezing-I just wondering-if A. I am reading the qpf outputs wrong, B. is the Nam doing its bias towards too much qpf. C. Is the 700 level too dry? I was excited about the NAM because it showed more qpf than the 06Z-I can see where I have made a fatal error in judgement-I was just wondering what that error was??? I am just a hobbyist and am trying to learn from some mistakes just for no other reason than to have the knowledge. Thanks in advance if you get time to get to this-if not, don't worry about it-you've got enough worry about today!!!! Thanks again
Bill man I'm not nearly as smart as I thought I was from Lawrence!!!
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Bill,
You are pretty smart as you actually are helping us think out these storm systems!
Gary
Posted by: Bill Gollier at January 13, 2007 9:06 AM
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I second that!!!! Boo hoo!!!!!
Posted by: Christi at January 13, 2007 9:08 AM
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goingpoof...that doesn't tie into the LRC at all...betcha it stays intact
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Bri,
Unfortunately it still fits. But, it doesn't mean it has to happen.
Gary
Posted by: bri at January 13, 2007 9:27 AM
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Stay optimistic fellow snow lovers. My philosophy is that until storm passes there is always hope. I look forward to tonight and tomorrow and being surprised of hopefully a storm that is kickin.
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David,
Exactly right!
Gary
Posted by: David Pollard at January 13, 2007 9:38 AM
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Jeff,
I was reading the National Weather Service discussion and they are thinking possible thunderstorms with up to 2-3 inches of sleet for the southern 1/3 of the forecast area. What are your thoughts? Also what do they consider the forecast area?
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Brian,
Their forecast area goes a long way out. We have two more really good rounds of precipitation left in this storm. One is about to begin now.
Gary
Posted by: Brian at January 13, 2007 9:57 AM
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Hi Jeff,
You guys have all done a great job! The radar has a fairly decent precip event heading towards us... my question is can you tell how much fr. rain? is this something that could bring limbs and lines down?
Thanks to your whole team for such hard work!(love this blog too!)
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Aunti Icey,
It may get icey, but not icey enough for power lines down, we don't think. Hopefully it will change to sleet and not all be freezing rain.
Posted by: Aunti Icey at January 13, 2007 10:18 AM
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weather team-
How is this storm shaping up around KCI this evening? Are you still expecting it to stay south like it did in November? Or do you think it will move farther north this time?
Keep up the good work, I don't trust anyone else but you!
Wade
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Wade,
You are finally getting some heavier precipiation. Another round is likely Sunday.
Gary
Posted by: wade at January 13, 2007 11:23 AM
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