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Good Morning to the weather team!!! We are at 0 here in Lawrence this morning-everything is frozen up-looks like the Polar express outside!!!

I think this weekend looks somewhat interesting-just by looking at this one snap shot into the future, it at least gives us a chance at something. Not much time to really looks at things, but there is at least something to hope for. The LRC is again showing why it is such an awesome theory!! Have a great day!!!
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Bill,
Thanks for the report. The weekend does look interesting, my initial reaction, and it is not a forecast, is some sort of slushy mix.

Brett

Will your LRC work in other areas also will it work on the direction of the wind and temperatures I am moving to Rochester,NY and I was wondering if it worked on Lake effect Snow or Lake ehanced snow

Good morning Brett, Gary and the rest of the weather team (Jeff). Well looking back at the data and the LRC is definitely a fact. I kept the precip records from October 2006 till now and we are in that 40-46 day cycle. (One exception in november when Topeka was supposed to get a lot of snow, a dry slot moved in cutting off the precip and causing it to evaporate and not hit the ground. Fascinating! Two questions, will this longer cycle affect our precip for the spring or will we bet EC for precip. The second is , what factors came into play when NOAA changed their wind chill chart? Thanks for your hard work, Michael/Topeka

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I love winter! I'll take anykind of winter precip.
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This morning on my way to work I heard one of the DJs on the radio say there is the possibility that we will experience another arctic outbreak next week. Do you see the potential for this?
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Yes, it is a possibility but the models may be trying to duplicate what happened last week. They sometimes do this.

Brett

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Gary,
Today on the competitors blog they were talking about the el nino and how as it shifts it is going to bring us a big snow storm in mid february... IF YOU ASK ME, YOU HAVE THEM WORRIED, i think the competition is worried about your theory and they are using it against you now... later, ryan
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Guys,
At my house it was about 1F in Overland Park this morning. It was not cold enough to be below zero, though. I am one of the few people that enjoys this kind of cold. I was visiting northern New England in January 2004 when the air temperature was
-30F at only 1500ft elevation. You have to wear many layers of clothes at those temperatures. Now that is some real arctic air!
Devin
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Gary,
I have a few thoughts on the chances of snow in the coming weeks - even before the end of February. This has been a moist winter, especially with 2.55" of rain on 12/20 and another 2" on 12/29-31. Those two events alone represent 159% of our average precip for the entire month of December. Problem was, there was no cold air to make snow.

I know there are warmer temeratures in the forecast, but I am optimistic that the snow on the ground to our north, ice and snow to our south, and the fact that January is our coldest month of the year, will mean that when the moisture returns during the next couple of weeks, we may have some big snows. Tell me I'm right please.
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Marshall,

Everything you state makes sense. And, these factors may be helping very quickly as the latest data on all of the models I have analyzed this morning have some snow here Saturday night and Sunday. I will blog about this later today when I get one more set of data.

Gary

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The latest GFS is looking real interesting with a few chances at some snow. I hope it verifies! Thanks for all the hard work last weekend. I can only imagine how exhausting it is to have your job in situations like the past week. Get some rest while you can.

Mike in Ottawa
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Mike,

Yes it is looking interesting. I will blog about it later today and make some special graphics about it for the newscasts tonight.

Gary

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Hello Kansas City! For those of you who have listened to 106.5 WDAF, now know that the station has got a new owner, and is now 106-5 THE WOLF. You have probably noticed that Gary's weather reports along with the DJ's and traffic reprots do not play anymore. Well good news! I spoke with Entercom Kansas City on the phone and they told me that all that will be returning on January 22 witch is next Monday! So we will be hearing Gary again on the radio next week!
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Jacob,

You know more than I know! Did they say for sure that I was on with them next week?

Gary

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Hey Brett. I have family in Halfway too! Wow, what a small world. We own 60 acres right outside "town" and are wondering what kind of tree damage we may have. Thanks for sharing!
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Kristy,

Brett will read this in the morning, and perhaps add a comment or two!

Gary

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Food for thought regarding El Nino. El Nino is waning. However, the patterns do not live and die by the ENSO. In fact, the LRC is more of a reflection of the result of the initial pattern setting up opposed to the impact of global changes themselves. Its a fine line, and I have stuggled in the past with this difference. In studying the different oscilation cycles and a bit of teleconnections, the only impact of what El Nino/La Nina may have is how the impact is felt based on what the LRC shows. We already know this. I think that it is the fine line that many folks confuse, even meteorologists. Consequently, the public gets even more confused. As a side note..in some of the analysis of this waning El Nino, there is not expected to be signficant changes per the CRC until more of a neutral environment which is not projected until Summer, which is the normal cycle anyway. Sometimes, its just easier to point to a fuzzy and misunderstood feature such as El Nino/La Nina to correct or put certain unknowns in check.
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Scott,

I think we agree, and a waning El Nino doesn't mean intant changes like some believe it means. The influence is still there. It isn't going to suddenly end.

And, I hate it when people say that this and that is because of El Nino. This latest storm would have happened whether El Nino was there or not, but El Nino may have still had an influence on it. Perhaps it would have been a bit more snow without El Nino, but no one will ever know.

Gary

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Gary and the weather team, back to two of my questions from this morning, with the LRC in place 42-46 day run, will that hurt our chances of precip from March to summer or do you think it will be EC? Also do you have any research as to why NOAA changed the wind chill chart several years ago? I was thinking about the previous blog from Scott and if there is or isn't an El Nino or La Nina in place even though the cycle is in place from year to year one would wonder the effects of what type of precip falls. That is what I am finding in my research of the snow and ice events the past 50 years here in Kansas. Were there El Ninos in place but of course no one know about them 40-50 years ago per say. Thanks, Michael/Topeka
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Michael,

I don't have the study in front of me, but I remember looking at the data that showed El Nino and non El Nino winters averaged about the same amount of snow. This should answer a lot of questions.

Gary

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Gary,

I wanted to know how cold it will get in Independence wednesday morning. How cold does it need to be before they call off school?

hopping for another SNOWDAY,

Andy
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Andy,

It is always up to the school. But it will be near zero.

Gary

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Weather team...check out this video from Portland.

http://www.kgw.com/sharedcontent/VideoPlayer/videoPlayer.php?vidId=114046&catId=131
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Chris,

We are showing it on the air in a few minutes. Thanks!

Gary

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When are you going to post more about the next storm you have snow Sun night into Mon NWS has it Sat night into sun what are the models showing?
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Charles,

Very soon.

Gary

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I see the NWS has a new 90 temp. outlook for us amateurs. Their graph shows below normal temps till spring If they are right, so much for global warming.
GaryB.
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Gary,

We'll see.

Gary

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Gary,
The chart above says it is date 11/1/01. Didn't a new way of calculating windchill factors come out in the last year?
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Matt,

The new chart came out a few years ago already. I am not sure if this is the new one or not. I think it is. If anyone else can do some research on this it would be appreciated.

Gary

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Well, Gary, I have one more idea. The "station you used to work for" has gotten on my very last nerve! They have so many commericals with the weather, it annoys me. They know that some of them are lies, but continue to do it.My idea, strike back with more commercials that you have now. Something needs to be done to finally show what you guys can really do. Everybody who doesnt watch you guys doesnt know how HARD you guys WORK. Out of all of the other stations, you guys do the best and hardest. I mean if you think about it, it goes like this. NBC Action Weather PLUS+, hard working to birng KC's best weather forecast. With ESP and Action Weather+ on 24hours a day, it takes a station and mainly a weather team, with POWER and COMMINTMENT, to bring you weather that IS trusted by more people than anyone else. Turn to NBC Action Weather+ for your most accurate forecast. Now THATS the POWER of NBC Action WeatherPLUS+!
Thats how it goes in real life if you really think about. Hope all understand. That's whatyou guys really do.
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Alden,

Thank you so much! We are getting the message out gradually. Keep working on the ideas. We really appreciate it. Hopefully others agree.

Gary

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Well, I loved watching the weather develop but I'm HATING the aftermath. I've got an ice damn (i think) on the back of my roof, and water leaking in my kitchen and down into my basement. Just something for your bloggers etc to be aware of. Watch for leaks....it's a new roof from this summer too. Not a good day here in LS!

Lisa
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Lisa,

This is hard ice, something that we are not used to. Good luck at dealing with it.

Gary

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I am liking Sun/Mon. It fits the pattern, and the SPC is picking up on it very early as well as the other models. Looks like we will have the temps in place with the moisture streaming up from the Pacific...
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Scott,

It does fit, but how will it come out? I want one more day before I really start getting excited about it. It is still a bit suspect.

Gary

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Gary,

Some forecasts and long range trends blast us with very bitter cold air the middle of next week. Do you see this happening too? If so how cold could we get?
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Jon,

It could be the coldest shot of the season, or just as cold as this. Right now I am not sure so we are waiting one more day. We are forecasting 20s for Monday and Tuesday which is cold enough.

Gary

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Gary, it is me again almost right after I sent you the other comment about the commercial (by the way, did you get that or not?). But, I have notice a strange trend in the news now. It seems that everyone (stations) are starting to get more strict about what they do. It seems that weather takes #1. I have always thought that they too are trying to attract people to them for the weather. Which I haven't still quiet figured out. Why would they do that if they aren't most accurate? Maybe they are jealous. But, it seems that weather is more competitive than the news. Maybe they just don't want to believe that there is a station that is certified most accurate. We never know. But, if you ever see one of their commercials that say that they are the best, or they take control and are calm, smart, or have the best coverage, just remeber this, "They could be lying."/"Why are they saying that." and/or, "Now they know who REALLY does all of that."
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Alden,

Weather is the #1 reason why people watch the news. So, this is why it has become so competitive. And, every forecaster that I have ever talked to thinks they are the best at forecasting. So, it is an ego thing I think. We challenge them every day and win time after time after time. Weatherate shows it, and some people will debate weatherate. I say to them just keep track of it yourself.

Gary

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The one above is the most current wind chill chart

Here is a paragraph about it

The Wind Chill temperature you have undoubtedly heard of is simply a measure of how cold the wind makes real air temperature feel to the human body. Since wind can dramatically accelerate heat loss from the body, a blustery 30° day would feel just as cold as a calm day with 0° temperatures. The index was created in 1870, and on November 1, 2001, the National Weather Service released a more scientifically accurate equation, which we use today. Here is a chart for calculating wind chill. (Please note that it is not applicable in calm winds or when the temperature is over 50°.)

derived from http://www.mountwashington.com/weather/wind-chill.html
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Thanks Charles!

Gary

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Wow, that poor person in that vehicle on the 5 o'clock news really was bounced around!!!!
Well we have seen our first below zero night in a long time, there were even some sporadic power outages briefly in St. Joe last night!! My mom even saw a transformer blow in the distance last night, I think it was extra stress on the power grid due to the cold. As for the next possible bout of cold air, I do remember that a few days after the November storm and the arctic air mass associated with it there was a quick shot of arctic air that didn't last long but it was intense, it brought about 40 m.p.h. winds the night it arrived and it kept us in the teens for one day even with out snow on the ground. Sorry, kind of long winded this evening.
BTW, today would have been my first day of meteorology class, but five minutes in to the class the power went out at the college I don't know what caused that though.
Thanks for your time, again sorry for the long windedness.
Nick in the frozen tundra of St. Joe!!!
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Nick,

Thanks for the update. Let us know how the meteorology class goes!

Gary

Gary:

Good evening sir!!! Just came in from sledding with my boys-man, was it awesome!!! Not sure who had more fun!!!! Well, most likely me!!! lol. I know this type of weather causes many problems and is a hardship on most-but I just can't help it-I love it!!!

I noticed something while I was outside-very subtle-but our winds here in Lawrence have shifted to the south-I checked the latest surface map and you can see the High is drifting off to our East and that Western Nebraska and Kansas are in the upper 30's-my question if you get a chance: do you think this will keep temps. tonight from free falling-do you think we may fall to around 8 or so and then kind of hold steady or is there enough snow/ice cover for maximum radiational cooling? I also wonder if we get enough of a south breeze if maybe a low cloud deck may develop from the warmer breeze comming over the ice pack-I'm just curious-purely for the sake of learning.

I have so many thoughts-half baked though they may be-about the future that I can't write them down-I may try to later or I may just spare everybody and keep them to myself!!! lol Thanks for reading and have a great night!! Oh, I read the blog about the "other station"-what they were advertising made my blood boil as well-possibly more on that too!!!!
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Bill,

I really don't want this blog to turn into a war with the other stations. It is not the objective. It is very competitive out there and I know that people have their favorite television stations and it is hard to get them to change. This is really our biggest challenge. Even if we are the best, and right now I believe we are, it will take a very long time to convince the viewers of the other stations. So, it can be very frustrating. It is essential, though in our business as our jobs are always on the line. We must make money as a television station and the more viewers the better, and this is why I work so hard. What is in my control is forecasting and presenting it to the viewers in the blog and more importantly on television.

The next week still has some interesting weather and I am going blog about it briefly and then eat dinner.

Gary