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Whew Gary, sounds like the pattern is a difficult one to get hold of. But you do seem to think it will stay cold for about the next 7-10 days. Other sources have sure flipped flopped on extended data. After the front on Friday, is there another front coming? Is this weather pattern we are in called clippers? I have heard that term used before. Keep up the good work. So according to the LRC, we won't have another major event till around Feb. 22-26th? Thanks, Michael/Topeka
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Michael,

There could be another event in there between now and the big potential at the end of February, but it just isn't showing up. Next week could warm up, but the latest model runs say NO.

Gary

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Hello Weather Team,
I was just wondering what causes the diffrent types of snow, light and powdery or heavy and wet. Is it the temperatures, or something else. Thanks
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Shannon,

There are many factors. It is more related to temperatures, and not just near the surface but all the way up. The closer it is to 32 degrees the more compacting the snow will be.

Gary

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I am doing the Polar Bear Plunge on Saturday at Longview Lake. Would you happen to know the approximate water temperature? I'm just trying to mentally prepare for "the plunge." Thanks.
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Michelle,

The water temperatures will be near 33 degrees. Otherwise it would actually freeze.

Gary

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Well Gary I sure do not like the cold and if there is going to be cold air around here there must be snow with it or its just a waste. I was counting on some more snow with this cold air but I guess we already had our fill of the snow around here, lets keep our fingers crossed that the snow is not over for us this winter.

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Ok…I have modelitis…I am buying into the SPC SREF prog [Winter-max 3hr]. It is still showing enough potential for 1-3 inches. I am sticking by it. Perhaps I will be a fool and throw away models forever, but it hasn’t let me down yet..especially this close to the event.

BRRRRRR
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Scott,

It is possible. Hold onto the hope. I will wait until I see the radar echoes before I believe more than 1 inch could fall.

Gary

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Hello, I hate to be nosy,but, when are you excatly planing to update the weather page? Ive been waiting to see it and Im quite anxious. Just wondering.
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Alden,

Sometimes we get distracted. Today, I had a huge leg workout today. Then I took a nap. And, the weather data, well I wanted to wait until it was all in before we updated the blog.

Gary

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This is pretty cool..never seen this...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/2007/01/29/aircraft-distrails-over-the-southcentral-us/
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Scott,

This is strange, it almost doesn't look real.

Gary

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Gary,
Is how long does it look like we are going to be in this very cold spell? What is the coldest day time high you think for the next week or so? Keep up the AWSOME work!

Jacob
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Jacob,

Right now I think the lowest daytime high will be around 12 to 15 degrees. There is debate on how long this will last. It may fade and warm up sometime next week. But, I need more evidence before I bite on it.

Gary

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Gary,
The 12Z GFS showed a nice baroclinic zone developing next week with the polar vortex near the US Canadian border. This could potentially put us in a northwest flow pattern with clipper systems that could produce snow easily with the cold air in place. However, with the northwest flow pattern we usually do not have big storms that develop because the subtropical moisture is pushed far to the south. I am hoping this pattern will produce some good snow in February. This January is wrapping up, and at least it is much colder than January 2006!
Devin
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Devin,

I have seen it happen before, but the NW flow baroclinic zone potential is still small. Let's see if it still looks like it tomorrow.

Gary

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Wow, thats a cold forcast!, The 12z GFS run didn't look to depressing to me it had a lot of potential, just nothing "solid" yet. I forgot to mention that yesterday morning I saw a sun pillar! Do you think that the cold could actually be harsher on the water mains with out the snow since the cold air would be in direct contact with the ground?
I feel for anyone brave enough to do the "Polar Bear" plunge on Saturday, I know it for a very good cause, but man that would be a new level of chill I couldn't even imagine.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in (cold) St. Joe!
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Nick,

Good point on, perhaps, this colder weather being harsher this time without the snow insulating the ground? It could be.

Brett was sick for a week last year afterwards. I hope when he gets out he gets near a heater fast.

Gary

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Gary:

Good afternoon sir!! I wanted to give major kudos on the forecasted high today-I have hit 19 strait on-awesome job!!!!

I really got a kick out of Scott's the little vort that could-that is funny!!! The 12Z and 18Z are kind of a tease-bring a band of close to .25 qpf to about Hutchison at 30 hours and you think oh yea 2-3 inches maybe and then at 36 hours poof!! For some strange reason I'm still holding out some wacky hope that the models are somewhat under doing the qpf-don't know why-maybe because I hope we get a surprise in the different direction, that one can see some moisture on satelite trying to head North East (not wanting to see that it is about to be crushed by the strong push from the North) and that there is some better qpf not too far away-I will hold out hope for 2-3 inches until the bitter end!!! lol

Great job again on the forecasted high today-for the future, will be interesting to see what next week does indeed bring-will keep trying to plug along and learn more about the LRC-but for now, the next 72-100 hours holds me in its grip!!! Have a great evening!!

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill,

Thanks, it hit 19 at KCI too. I know we had the coldest high in town.

There is always hope. And, Jeff and I looked back in October and December when this part of the pattern occurred. It is amazing. If we can just hold the cold air near by then we could still have some winter storms in February.

Gary

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Just watched your news cast at 5:18. Any chance of the snow near oklahoma border moving north?!?!?! so we get dumped on!?!? (im crossing my fingers right now) LOL
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Zack,

There is always a chance. Let's see what the new data shows tonight.

Gary

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Hello Gary,
Are you guys still think about 5 hours of precip? Or an afternoon thru the overnight event lasting about 12 hours?Look like any accumulation on Fri?
Sorry for all the questions I know your a busy man, Thanks for your time!
Anne
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Anne,

It will depend on if we get into more than one disturbances affects. There are about three or four small systems coming across, each one could last 3 to 5 hours. Right now it appears only one will affect us, but it could be close.

Gary

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Hey Gary NAM looks looks like around .22 inches of precipitation. But GFS not nearly that high the same as the HRW model. I would like a nice solid 3 inches it would be nice.
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Daniel,

The NAM has about .09". The GFS has about .07". Let's hope the new run has that much, but right now it doesn't.

Gary

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Scott...
That aircraft trail thing is cool. I've seen that before on spaceweather.com. What is the address for the SPC model site that you use?

Gary...
Still looking like one inch for tomorrow? I hope we get some below zero temperatures.

Thanks,
David

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Gary,
One of the other less reliable guys in town is saying we could see up to 6 inches of snow over the next 3 to 4 days....
i don't think so...
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Ryan,

I don't know who it is. I don't even want to know. You probably know that if we thought that was a possibility then we would be the first to go for it. This should help you decide if there is a chance of that forecast coming true.

Gary

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Gary welcome back from Vegas, Look I love snow and cold however this is getting crazy I am frozen solid up here in the northland I have not seen snow stay around this long since I moved back from Florida In 2002 Anyway I am still hoping for a severe snow storm this winter Jerry in the northland frozen at 169 and barry road.
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Jerry,

I think we will make one serious run at a big snowstorm later next month. Hopefully it will be your turn.

Gary

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Wow i would love for this to be true. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/18/images/hiresw_p48_048m.gif
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Daniel,

So would I. Unfortunately it has almost no chance.

Gary

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And then the models went...poof! Sigh...even old faithful made a HUGE change in the last 6hrs. Darn models. Oh well..a meaningless dusting, wasted cold air and another frustrating day of this part of the LRC. I hate the second half of the LRC..so frustrating. I get and understand the first half...this part is sooo chaotic, I don't have a good feel for it yet.

David..the SPC site I use is http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/ and I use the weather products.
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Scott,

Hopefully it will snow enough to get the ground white. Our standards are low now.

I could blog about this, but I will leave it for those who read all of the comments right now. This part of the pattern we are going through is almost identical to what happened during November, and the break down in the cold pattern is expected next week and right on schedule. The December version of this pattern also was there. Oh, differences exist, but if you use your imagination you can see how it is still cycling. The October and early November versions had a long dry spell with no southwestern upper lows. The December and early January version and the wetter pattern with the southwestern upper lows. each cycle is producing different results. And, I know the LRC is alive and kicking. I also know that it is a work in progress and trying to convince analytical and deep thinking meteorologists will be tough. This is fine with me. Let's keep thinking it out and we will come up with more proof in the coming months and years.

Hopefully the big storm part of our pattern that will likely return towards the end of February or early March will be the November version and we will get one more big snow in the region! It should be that version and not the ice version the second time through. Will the third time be a charm?

Gary

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Gary:

Good cold morning to you sir again!!! It feels like Yellowknife North West Territories outside this morning especially with that bright moon-only if there was snow on the ground..sitting at about 9 currently.

Speaking of Yellowknife, it is kind of interesting that you can draw a line from Yellowknife, NWT right down to us and see the arctic air-Yellowknife was at 0 last night, Saskatoon was at 5 and we were around 10-Edmonton was 27-you can really see the that the core of the cold is oriented in Eastern/Central Canada with this and we are kind of on the Western end of it-but far enough in to get darned cold!!!

Well, this mornings radar and satelite pretty much tells the tale (I think??) and shows that the modles, as much a I wanted to disbelieve them LOL, were spot on. The strongest moisture is being shunted to the East before it can make this far North-we are on the fringe-Lunatic Fringe to quote Red Rider!! Looks like there may be one heavier band set up to our South-Iola to Pleasonton maybe?? Oh well, the snow dance continues!!!!
One thing I noticed is that it seems both GFS and NAM are now trying to develop something on the front Friday-could could be something to watch??? Also, what will happen with that Low spinning down the Western Canadian Coast or the one comming in on the Baja of California-and how many straws can I try to grasp as I am falling down????

Have a great day-I am going to try and show my classes the models for Friday-it is fun too see the surge of cold air comming down and they always get a kick out of it. I really enjoyed reading your response to Scott this morning-I can see it once you explain it but still have trouble really figuring it out on my own-(why this is a hobby and I have a day job!!!) I was thinking this was kind of like the mid October plunge we had and it looks like early next week may be similar to the late October snap before the warm up of November-I think??? Have a great day-I will still hold onto one last thread of hope that some better moisture decides to break the trend and pay us a visit...always hoping!!!

Bill in Lawrence
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Bill,

Nowcasting this morning! And, I initially like what I see. Snow is developing and growing. The RUC is wet and this still has a chance of being a bit more.

Gary

I teach in Wathena Kansas. It has started to snow just a little here