It will snow. Nice to see the Pac/tropical teleconnection. Seems to catch each SW trough now...nice pattern.

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Hey Gary, love the Blog! I'm about 5 miles south of KCI airport, and it's snowing like crazy here! I heard about the blog from a friend, started reading it about a week ago, and now i'm watching you guys at 41 full time! Keep up the good work Gary and co. and i'm looking forward to the snow on Saturday/Sunday.
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Tony,

Thank you for finding us. We will continue working hard to bring you the best weather information possible.

Gary Lezak

Gary,

It is SNOWING here in Independence at 10:00! we already have a dusting of accumulation! Now what is the latest on that weekend STORM?

Andy

The NWS issued a Winter Storm Watch for most of the Red River Valley and up through Oklahoma. A Hazardous Weather Outlook was posted for southern Kansas and central MO. It looks like the NWS is leaning toward the brunt of the storm passing to our South and East this weekend. Do you agree or think there's a good chance the ULL will track closer to KC?

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All you guys have to do is whisper the word "snow" and all of us here on the blog go crazy! It must be some kind of Pavlovian response. =)
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Marlina,

It is because it is so rare, and as we are seeing again this season it is very difficult for it to snow at all.

Gary

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Gary, I just noticed on ESP on your 10 p.m. early showing, and saw the snow here in the Shoal Creek area. Right now the sidewalks and tops of cars are white from the flurries.
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Matt,

That snow showed up on ESP around 9:30 PM and we went outside and saw the gentle snow with billions of little snowflakes on the Plaza. Now, let's get some bigger snowflakes this weekend for the snow lovers out there.

Gary

Gary the latest GFS has a nice snow storm with the track going 60 or 70 miles south of KC? Am i right. Cant wait to see what you say in the blog tonight. Im starting to get real excited ive been out of school since 1:13 friday and wont go back until Monday thats if we dont have a big snowstorm Saturday night/Sunday.

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Gary:

Good evening!!! Glad you got to see some snow this evening!!!!

I promise this will not be War and Peace (lol) but I'm preping some classes and just had to look at the 0z runs-wow on the NAM-I'm sorry, but that is just nutso on the qpf-the gfs run looks much more logical to me as I think?? it shows a weaker storm but with some pretty decent qpf. I think the moisture will be there-the wv loop tonight showing that pacific tropical mositure-man-pretty impressive fecth comming across. I just can't see the stronger 500 ht. low the NAM is depicting-1. there is that huge bomb off the maritimes (somebody on a weather internet board pointed this out to me) that while weakening is still pretty strong. 2. The LRC: all year these lows have run into the one thing the LRC has had daily: that Bermuda SE ridge that is sitting out there-it has helped in shunting moisture up here, but it has also weakened those sw lows as they get into Kansas (at least I think it has) thus, I can't see a stronger quasi closed off 500 ht low as the NAM shows-I think the open GFS is more in line based on the LRC-still the 0z GFS gives us some decent qpf-I mean if this was December 22nd, we would be howling about it!!! lol!! But boy, if the NAM tonight verified as is, that would be a very decent single event snow fall for this area. Leave it to the good old NAM to pique my interest again!!! I will say, that the ULL does look quite vigorous tonight and there is lots of tropical Pacific moisture....Maybe I'll save this Nam qpf just for memories of what could have been!!!!

By the way, I noticed, again if I am seeing things correctly, that the wv imagery also shows Western Canada about to be invaded by Pacific Air again-right on time!!!!!! It will be interesting to see how cold the NWT and Alberta can stay in the next few weeks.

Well, I guess this is Le Miserables but at least not War and Peace!!! Have a great night-while prob. not going to happen I will sleep tonight with that 1/2 inch of qpf the NAM shows over us for 9 hours or so!!!

Bill always excited by the 0z NAM Gollier

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Cool, if they want the ice still on my driveway, come on over!!!!!!!!! They could make a village! I had knee replacement one month ago and I am getting cabin fever! Please let it be nice Saturday morning so I could just get out a little!!!!!My driveway on a hill is still about 2 inches of ice and my street is the same. I so need to get out!!!
Debbie
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Debbie,

It looks nice through Saturday morning.

Gary

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Sleetman is cool!(no pun intended:)!)
Atcually, since "sleetman" is probably made up of a conglomerate of accumulated freezing rain and sleet he could be called "icecreatman";)
the latest GFS has the vort go to the south and it has it getting small, BUT still has it pretty intense when it moves through, the NAM has it going almost right through us, if not a little to the north, but it still gives us a good shot at precip!
The vort looks really neat on the NAM when it is near southern CA., it has a feature that looks like an "eye", like a red hurricane in the mid-level of the atmosphere, that just looks neat to me. Well, I got to go to bed now, I have a calc. class waiting for me tomorrow morning.
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

Let's hope the models take the upper level low south or near Kansas City on the next few runs.

Gary

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Gary:

Sorry-just me again-I can see where I made another fatal error in judgement-I quit looking at the NAM 500 low at about 72 hours and started concentrating too much on the qpf output and thickness levels-oops!! Some day I will learn!! The GFS has a very similar track to the 12Z euro-both look to take it around Nevada, Missouri or just a bit north of there-def. a better track-I think??

By the way-have you seen that video from Mt. Washington? They had minus 32 up there today with 75MPH winds-the meteorologists took a pot of boiling water and poured it into the air-instant snow hurricane-amazing stuff-what an amazing spot-if you like brutally cold weather-I should go there sometime!!! LOL
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Bill,

That would be too much for me.

Gary

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I noticed even though the GFS and RUS maps are showing significant snow here or just south, the NWS discussion this morning was thinking the storm would be moving too fast for significant accumulations.
GaryB.
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Gary,

The speed of this storm is a very limiting factor. Can you imagine 6 to 10 hours of snow. This is what the models are predicting. you can get a lot of snow in that amount of time. The problem may be with the track of the system like the last one. If it tracks north of us then sleet or rain becomes more likely.

Gary

Thanks for posting a pic of the sleetman. I was telling my 7 year old about it and she was really interested in seeing what a sleetman looks like so we can build one. She will enjoy the pic immensely!