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It's another warming trend....
We still have our own "Arctic Air Watch" just for fun. But as we anticipate one, two, or three Arctic fronts beginning later next week we will be experiencing two warming trends first. It could get close to 60 degrees one day this week and then again next week. There are no real storm systems in sight, at least for the next 7 days. This will give us time to work on our New Year's Resolutions.
Click to enlarge (500 mb flow valid next Tuesday night)
Click to enlarge (Surface flow valid next Tuesday night)
The top map is the forecast valid 168 hours from last night. It is the 500 mb level which is my favorite level of the atmosphere to look at when tracking storm systems. 0 mb (milibars) is the top of the atmosphere. And 1000 mb is near the surface so 500 mb is half way through the atmosphere in weight and is around 18,000 feet up. This map shows a rather substantial ridge forming across the eastern Pacific with a trough near the west coast. After this trough forms almost every computer model digs it down and off the west coast. If this happens the Arctic air could get held up across western Canada, but usually when a very cold and large Arctic airmass forms up there it will make it to Kansas City. But, in what state will it be when it gets here? This is what we will try to figure out as it develops in the next week.
The second map shows the Arctic high in northwest Canada. It is quite strong by this time next week. Remember these are just computer generated forecasts and the pattern could look very different than this in a few days. I am expecting a little different look than the models are predicting. So, at this moment all we can say is that we are watching closely at the potential for some true winter to arrive before the middle of the month. But, for how long, and will we have a storm? These are questions I am unsure of at this moment.
Have a great day! There is a lot going on this week. So, we have been a bit slow in responding to some of your questions and comments. I will try to get to them as soon as I can.
Posted by at January 3, 2007 6:18 AM
Gary, hate to bug with this stuff again, but when will you post the weather ratings so far this season? I'm anxious to see them, and how far ahead you are from everybody else! Weatherate.com, is there anyway we can see for ourselves where everbody stands if/when you don't have the ratings up on your blog? I'm always wanting to know through the year. One final note, this may or may not make everybody mad, but is there anyway you could also post whether or not each station is going UP or DOWN in the weather ratings?
Keep up the Great work!
I will post the ratings tomorrow. I will try to be more careful how I show them.
Posted by: Alden at January 3, 2007 8:07 AM
Gary good morning. One of our meteorologists here in Topeka, who by the way has great respect for your theory and forecasts, put out a CDC report this morning showing a huge change in the weather in 8-14 days out. The precip goes way up and the temps are N (normal) barely touching the below normal. I know you and your team use a variety of the computer models and putting your theory in practice as far as the cycle goes. Is the cycle going out to 50 days as one blogger stated? Wouldn't that hurt our precip in the spring or would the cycle have rain in between times? Let's hope it does return to a little more normal around here. Deadhorse, Alaska was minus 40 degrees this morning. Thanks, Michael/Topeka
I am more convinced than ever that it is closer to a 40 to 44 day cycle. Everything is right on schedule. Amazing! This pattern should be a somewhat wet one during the spring.
Posted by: michael huffman at January 3, 2007 8:35 AM
I just figured out exactly when the Artic Air will hit KC...when the other stations say "we don't see any cold air anytime soon."
You are so funny! I think they said it last night. So, here it comes.
Anyway, the latest data has the coldest solution yet. It fits the pattern better and I think we are going to have some winter soon.
Posted by: snowlover at January 3, 2007 9:37 AM
Still no signifcant snow to speak of here in Leavenworth. With the current weather pattern and the above average temperatures are our chances getting pretty slim for any snowy storm systems hitting us this winter?
And if so, what does the spring hold? Any chance of some fun weather for all of us storm spotters?
We will have a very good chance soon.
Posted by: Janine at January 3, 2007 11:17 AM
And I was just joking when I said "December showers bring January flowers."
Flowers really are sprouting!
All I want for Christmas is a major snowstorm and at least one Chiefs playoff win. Wait. Christmas passed already. Make that for my birthday.
Maybe we can get you the Chiefs playoff win, and more likely a big snowstorm. It could arrive within two weeks.
Posted by: Jay C. at January 3, 2007 11:20 AM
I love reading your blog. It is very educational and informative. But, this is the first time I have posted a comment on here.
I am not a big fan of 60's during the winter. If I liked it warm all the time, I would move further south. Actually, I am a bit torn becuase I am an avid golfer and it is nice to be able to play a round during months when it is usually too cold to get on the course. So, I am looking on the bright side. Plus, the off-season golf rates are cheaper and the heating bill for my apartment has not caused me a heart-attack lately. I guess warmer weather in the winter has a good side :)
We love the interaction! Thank you for participating and I am glad you are enjoying the blog. I think we will get a blast of Arctic air soon.
Posted by: Scott at January 3, 2007 11:24 AM
I have a question that I have always wondered, even before learning about your weather theory. Does a storm system ever go away or can you follow the same system around the entire world? Does it just rotate around the earth forever? Since your theory says the same pattern sets up every x number of days, is it the exact same system, or do storm systems disappear and brand new storms appear? Based on your theory, I would think they disappear since a new pattern sets up in the October time frame.
The storm systems fall apart and are pretty much non existant after a few days or weeks at the most. The energy may still exist, but another storm will form and not be associated with other situations. If this makes sense? I could have been a bit simpler in my explanations.
Posted by: Chris at January 3, 2007 12:54 PM
Gary, last night on the news you listed the highest and lowest temps we saw in KC in 2005 (I believe it was 104F for the high, and 4F for the low). Could you list this data for each year this millenia, since 2000? I think it would be a fun comparison. Was is 2002 or 2003 when we hit -7 or -8? I can't remember.
This would make a good graphic. I will talk to the weather team about it and maybe we will put it together. Great suggestion!
Posted by: Jeff W. at January 3, 2007 2:53 PM
Gary, When I see the NAM and GFS charts from a link you provided a while back, I see the 500 millibar stuff and potential precip for up to 16 days, but where do I go to see the computers temp forecast.
This site: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/
has the temperature data and other parameters.
Have a great day!
Posted by: GaryB at January 3, 2007 4:25 PM
Could this cold air that you think is going to overtake the Kansas City area be the coldest air yet this season?
There is a chance, but it could still struggle. We will know more within 5 days as the Arctic air mass grows.
Posted by: Jacob Honeycutt at January 3, 2007 4:30 PM
No! Warm weather is the enemy right now! Keep it away, far away!
We will see if this new developing Arctic airmass will have teeth, or if it will just lose its bite next week.
Posted by: Marlina at January 3, 2007 4:49 PM
Statistical question for you.
I have been here for past 6 winters and it seems we have been above normal most of the time with last year setting records for that. Since it has been quite a few years above normal my question is has the "normals" risen as well? So is the normal from 10 years ago the same normal as today or higher?
We use 30 and 100 year averages. I think I should calculate the 10 year averages and see how much different it is from those other ones. It could be interesting. But, I will bet it is no more than a degree off.
Posted by: Leonard at January 3, 2007 4:50 PM
I think I just had a full blown conniption. Look at the recent GFS run. I wouldn't be so excited except it fits so close with what happened around 42 days ago!! And if anything I think the strength of the Low is being underdone.
It may not happen, but it fits like a glove. And, the January version could be stronger, hopefully more widespread. But, we will have ups and downs in the models for days as it is still tricky.........and dreamy.
Posted by: snowlover at January 3, 2007 5:12 PM
Gary when do you happen to think this arctic air will hit around the area?
Not for another 8 to 10 days which means so much can still change.
Posted by: Jon at January 3, 2007 8:01 PM
Sorry for the late response today,busy day!
I'm glad that we will have some winter around hear again soon( sometimes I wonder if I don't live 50 miles north of Dallas instead of KC;)) As for a big storm system with the cold air,well I guess we will cross that bridge when we get there. The 12Z GFS wants to leave the trough hanging over southern California FOREVER, then cutting it off and still leaving it over there( weird looking solution), but I have seen the computers do this before . Oh, and as I am sitting here the wind is blowing pretty good and rattling my windows a bit!
Thanks for your time!
Nick in (windy) St. Joe!
We are going to get more computer solutions in the coming days that will vary quite a bit. Let's be patient and see how everything fits the pattern.
Posted by: Nick Rau at January 4, 2007 2:25 AM
Good Morning to you sir!!! Have to admit, it is a nice morning outside-a bit breezy, but nice!!!!
I still don't think this weekend is set in stone-latest guidence looks like the main low may track a bit further south and may have a bit more cold air to work with-It looks as though the models may still be trying to hone in on a solution-nothing big, but still interesting!!!! Which leads to my next point: The LRC-long live the LRC!!!!
Anyone who is forecasting that we will not see a change is in for a sharp awakening!!! The models are all different on the timing and strength etc but using the LRC, one knows a pattern change is comming. I may be wrong here, but I think you can already see it beginning to form: Alaska is beginning to warm up and the NWT and Western Canada is beginning to go below normal-on satelite this morning, it looks like the ridge in the Pacific is beginning to set up and is a bit more pronounced-all these indicate a change is in the air-now, that does not mean we will se massive snow nor artic cold for 2 weeks-the details will have to be worked out at the time-if the models don't have a firm grip on this weekend, they sure can't give any good detail 10 days from now. That being said: the models are showing the build up of cold air and that taken with real temp. data gives good creedence to the upcomming change. I realize one cannot verify a solution until after the fact, but it really looks like the LRC is once again showing its awesome performance!!!! Hopefully, this time through it will lock in for 10-12 days and we can have another strong low ride up the front-time will tell-but I am convinced that we will see a real strong shot of cold air in here and it will get people's attention!!!
One more quick note: I am real interested to see how early March plays out (I know-I know-I'm getting way ahead)-when this pattern recycles about then....we are due for a March block buster-this just may be the year!!!
Have a great day!!! Oh, I am jealous-enjoy the ski trip next week!!! You will have great snow for sure!!! Skiing is just awesome!!!
Hopefully I will be able to go on the ski trip. I won't go if a big winter storm is heading our way. But, I don't want to miss the trip if we are going to be on the edge. Well, let's see how it sets up.
It is amazing. The 06z run of the GFS has the Arctic airmass losing its punch. This may drive me crazy in the next few days. The last two times through this part of the pattern the ridging in the Pacific lasted long enough to build a cold air mass and then the ridge broke down within a day, even though it was huge. So, the same thing can be expected to happen again. We will see.
Posted by: Bill Gollier at January 4, 2007 5:21 AM
I meant to add that if you look at the EPO, AO, and PNA they are heading in the right direction as well. IMHO (and again, it is very humble indeed!!!!) they are part of the LRC-if you look at this year, they have cycled through in a very similar fashion and were all lined up quite well for us in October and late November. This is why I think the LRC is such an incredible find and tool-all these indices are part of the pattern (all are I think 500 ht indices) and follow the LRC. Once again, awesome work!!!!
Here's to hoping we get a good storm with this cycle and that maybe it can lock in for 2 weeks or so-time will tell-but I have no doubt, that the change is in the air!!!!
The 06z GFS has a very wet storm, but not as wintery next weekend. But, it is still too far out.
The LRC may show why those other ocean temperature anomalies cycle. Something else is causing this. Maybe there is some influence, but something else is going on. The frustrating part is that as we see the longwave signitures returning on schedule we still have the struggles with the reality of this pattern we are in. It is what it is and we can't do anything about it. We may still be able to squeeze in two or three storm systems.
Posted by: Bill Gollier at January 4, 2007 5:30 AM