********************
With these mechanisms in play, expected to repeat, does this mean that spring should actually be cooler/wetter than usual with some good severe weather outbreaks? Last year was too hot/dry (and boring).
----------------------
Drew,

I think this spring will be near average to above average on rainfall. This would be much better than last year.

Gary

**************
I was just wondering when we will start to see any relief from this arctic cold front and freezing cold temperatures? I love the snow(that may be coming), but this seems like it could go on well into next week?
Thanks for the great blog and weather information. It is the best place to find updated info!
-----------------
Jami,

Thanks. It is too early to tell on if we will maintain this Arctic connection. There are some signs of it breaking down, at least temporarily, next week.

Gary

**************
Yes it makes a lot of sense to me Gary. I am looking forward to the rest of winter. We definitely have had more winter than the past five. Maybe not as much snow as we would have liked but that is ok. We need a strong spring that will produce above average rainfall. I would like to see us back in the black and not in the red. Michael/Topeka
----------------
Michael,

If we can get one or two more snowstorms then I am happy with this winter.

Gary

***************
"I think this spring will be near average to above average on rainfall...."

So does this mean a much above average Severe Weather Season like you kinda predicted last year!Boy, if it is I need to tell Evan to get Storm Lab 4.0 out and fast.!
-------------
Andrew,

That is always a tough question. I don't have a feeling on severe weather season yet.

Gary

************
My weather forecasts are coming along quite nicely. So far I am pretty accurate, thats a good thing!!! LOL anyway, I am wondering if there are any signs of a near by storm system in about 11-16 days or so. I notice that there is a storm forming near by. The GFS has some moistue in our area to work with. I am wanting more snow!!! I see that we have some chances this week and into next week. Do you see any evdience of the weather patten locking up with this cold air? What does that mean in chances for precipation? Have a great day!!!:)
John Moon III
---------------------
John,

I think we may be about to lose the cold air? Not sure yet. Keep forecasting every day!

Gary

****************
Hi Gary:
I see the Red Line you have drawn on the first map has the area in Mn. covered where I live. We have been getting the dustings to one inch snows. Good and cold right now but we like it that way. They had a local Polar Plunge into Green Lake on Sat. The temp was 4 degrees above zero with a 40 mph NW wind. The water temp was 33 degrees. I don't know but that was too cold for me. Keep pushing some of that moisture our way, especially for spring.
Take care
Rod
-----------------
Rod,

Keep us updated on your weather. Maybe spring will be good for you.

Gary

****************
Wow Gary I am here at work and checking your long ranger and you sure changed it! Why the high of 32 and then 15? Is there another Artic front for next week? Will it stay around longer? Are you starting to see storms for next week? I saw that you bumped up the snow this week to 60% Good deal we need the moisture. Thanks, Michael/Topeka
-----------------------
Michael,

I am already thinking of changing/warming up early next week. The latest data is strongly hinting at a cold air retreat.

Gary

********************
Gary:

Good afternoon sir!!! Thanks so much for the in depth Blog this morning-what a gold mine of knowledge!!!! It is greatly appreciated for sure!!

By the way, not sure if I am reading correctly, but it looks like the 12Z GFS and 18Z NAM have began to increase the moisture on Wednesday? This seems to me to be a small trend over the past 24 hours-the next 3-4 runs could be quite interesting-I hope/think?? Have a great afternoon-will be interesting to check out tonight's water vapor imagery.

Once again, thanks so much for posting all that great information-it is great indeed to learn from this blog!!!

Bill in Lawrence
-------------------------
Bill,

It is a trend that has now flattened out a bit. We will need that wave to bend back into the northern Rockies just a bit on Wednesday and it will snow. I still have some concerns.

Gary

****************
Hi Gary,I hope you had a good trip. I have heard that the snow to liquid ratio may be fairly high with this storm Wednesday. How much snow do you think will fall south of Kansas City?
-------------------
Brent,

It would be high if it were to snow. So, let's get it to snow first. The ratio will probably be 15 or 20 to 1. If we were to get 1/10th of an inch liquid this could mean 2 inches of snow. How much will we get though? .01" or .15"?

Gary

**********
Gary,
Because of this cold and snowy winter, do you think we will have a rather active (more than last year) severe weather season? I hope so, because I love all the action! And also, how much snow can we expect total for the next week or so?

Jacob
------------------
Jacob,

This is one area that I hope we don't have much activity. I love thunderstorms, but severe weather is my least favorite believe it or not. It could be quite active, but we haven't really analyzed this yet.

Gary

****************
Hello, I know there is some debate on Global Warming or not, but, do you have any information or any links that show how much the Earths temp had risen or fallen last year? I thought of that after what Drew said about last year about being to hot. ********
Now on to something else Jeremy told me to ask you when you came back. Ive been trying to find some info, pictures, even full newscasts when KSHB was younger. I know the "about us" link could help, but I was looking for something more. Do you know of any place (such as websites for example) that could/would have this type of stuff? I have been really curious about that sort of stuff. I would really like to know for both. Thanks.
---------------------
Alden,

I don't know where to begin with this. I am sure we have some tapes here from the beginning days. I am not sure where to access this though.

Gary

*******************
Gary,

Where abouts are we on precip for the past year. Are we several inches of moisture short? I heard that LA California had had only 1 1/2" of rain since last July. At least were not that dry.
----------------
Donald,

Yes, and it is El Nino. This makes my point about how El Nino does NOT create the pattern it only influences it in smaller ways.

We are behind, but this winter has been somewhat on the wet side.

Gary

*****************
Hello Gary,
Just wondering, you say it's a fast moving system, so how many hours of precip are we expecting, just wondering, thanks Anne
------------------------
Anne,

Anywhere from a few flurries to 5 hours of snow. This is what we have to figure out before Wednesday. Right now I lean in the closer to 5 hours of snow, but confidence is still low.

Gary

**************************
A cold air retreat? That would be excellent. I don't want below zero temps if we can avoid them. I think a retreat would fit well with the recurring cycle, setting us up for another cold spike Feb 25 or so.
----------------------
Rob,

We will see if these trends continue in the longer range. Another day and we will talk about it in more detail.

Gary

****************
It will be closer to 5hrs of snow, but with such a high ratio of rain to snow for this, how on earth can you be so precise to forecast between .01 and .15 inches of precip..cmon now..this is out of control. That is a huge range to predict, with such a small margin of error...

How? Do you have some models that are more precise?
------------------------------
Scott,

Oh my! .01" to .15" is not that much of a difference. If it were rain those would be very light totals. Right now I can't see much more than .22". I do see this potential which could give us 3 inches of snow, but what if only .03" falls. This happens ALL of the time with rain. We expect an inch of rain and only .05" falls. So, predicting from .01" to .15" is not that big of a range at all.

Gary

****************
The SPC is thinking more snow now. It seems the vort from the SW brings in more moisture, and is a bit stronger... I think you will see another push of snow into Thur/Fri. I think we will see a 3 day total from 2-6 inches. More on the south side...
--------------------------
Scott,

I sure hope you are right. There have been a few model runs with some wetter solutions. But, there is one big dilemma with this snow forecast. The waves producing them are not very organized. If Friday's system digs harder and a bit further west then the 2 to 6 inches would be likely in Friday's storm alone, but will it dig further west?

Gary

*****************************************
Gary:

Good evening sir once again from Lawrence!!! Winds are really picking up out of the North West and I noticed on the latest surface data that there is some pretty cold air to our North and West heading down!!!

I have really enjoyed reading the comments in the Blog tonight as I always do and they made me think of something-scary I know!!! LOL. When I wrote my huge War and Peace mish mash last week one of the main points I was trying to get across is that I think the LRC has shown there has been a lack of blocking to really lock in the cold air and the pattern has been overall progressive. I’m not sure at all if this is a correct analysis but it is something I have observed-I think??? The quick retreat of the cold air this weekend, if indeed this does occur, would fit that and also the LRC-at least the LRC in November and December and possibly October? There has been just enough of a ridge pop up over the west coast to funnel cold air down, but it can’t hold for a real long period of time. I hope I’m not going too far out of line with this, but this is just a thought and me trying to learn!!!! (As an aside, I wonder if the models are giving that Low in the Pacific too much power and thus breaking the ridge down off the West Coast too soon????)

All that being said, I don’t want to think too much beyond Sunday-we have some very cold air coming down tonight and some snow chances over the next 4-5 days with a real brutal shot of cold air for Friday/Saturday-really exciting for a winter lover as myself. Also, the weather since January 12th has been so much better than the last 2 years-combine that with October’s many freezes and the 8 days of late November and early December not to mention what may come later in February and early March, and we have had a very decent winter-I mean the ponds/small lakes have been iced over for close to 3 weeks now and I still have a back yard that is an ice rink-great stuff indeed!!!

Well, I’m looking forward to checking out the 0Z runs as well as the latest water vapor imagery-fun stuff indeed!!!!! Have a great night-and as always, thanks for reading all my ramblings and responding to them-you have the patience of a saint!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

P.S.: 37 Sunday would make perfect bomb fire, hot dog roasting and skating weather!!!!
--------------------
Bill,

Thinking beyond Sunday and taking it seriously is almost not worth it at this point. I changed the 7 day three times this afternoon and finally decided before the 5 PM newscast that the early next week Arctic front won't be as strong. But, I could be wrong.

Gary

*********************
Gary,
I hope that the cold air does not retreat next week. I used to live near Chicago and a west or northwest wind was always a cold wind during the winter season. In KC, it took me awhile to realize that a west wind is actually a downsloping wind, and can really warm things up in winter. Maybe the polar vortex will stray a little farther west, but the ridge in the Pacific does lose strength rather quickly. The northeast and Great Lakes seem to really lock in that cold air with the negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation.
Devin
---------------------
Devin,

Let's see if the retreat occurs next week. I think we will see this continued trend over the next two days if it is going to happen.

Gary

*********************
I am flying out early Thursday morning. Is this next storm going to effect air travel?
----------------
Robin,

I think that Thursday will be dry and delays should be minimal.

Gary

***********
Anybody wanting to see the Las Cruces picture can go to this link.
www.freewebs.com/kansascityweather/newmexicopics.htm

********
Gary and Weather Team,

How concerned should I be about the driving conditions on Wednesday and Thursday morning commutes?

This winter weather is getting kind of annoying because it is so dry.

Thanks and great work.

Ryan
-----------
Ryan,

It looks dry for the morning rush hours both days. But, let's see how it trends today.

Gary

**********
Gary...different context...where I wrote:

"01 and .15 inches of precip..cmon now..this is out of control. That is a huge range to predict,"

I was commenting from the perspective of snow at a 20 to 1 ratio..now..that would be a bigger range, right? Obviously, .01 to .15 in liquid is a very small range. I was speaking in terms of snow. Sorry for the confusion...
--------------
Scott,

Even with the 20 to 1 ratio that would still mean a dusting to 3 inches. Not a big range at all. Now, if I were to say .01" to 1" liquid, then we would be talking dusting to 20 inches with that ration. Then I would agree with your statement. Anyway, the overnight data has only .04" total. I want more.

Gary

*************
We had a nice flurry shower this evening now it's just cold and windy.
Wow! 14 degrees on Friday that's cold!
I wasn't really expecting to have this cold spell after December's stretch of warm after the small cold spell in late Nov. so to me, even if it does dissipate next week, I will consider it a bonus streak of winter!
Yes I'm still ready for more snow but usually it's about this time of year when my appetite for thunderstorms starts growing again:)
Thanks for your time!
Nick in (cold) St. Joe!!!
------------------
Nick,

I was expecting this in December. It started out this way, and then the Arctic air just retreated all the way to northern Canada. It isn't happening this time, at least not yet.

Gary

*********
Hey Gary I was just wondering if it is too late to be a weather spotter for KSHB at the Bloggers meeting you handed out the papers but I think you said we could just do it online.

And regarding the weather is it looking like more snow south of the metro. I want atleast an inch heck that might get us outta school lol.
---------------
Daniel,

I have all of the spotters information. They are still sitting on my desk. We will be organizing our network soon.

Gary

*********
I know it's cold outside when even my dog doesn't want to go out! =)
------------------
Marlina,

Breezy and Stormy were outside for a grand total of 1 minute this morning. I walked out there with them just to see how cold it felt. The wind chill was -18.

Gary

************
Gary:

Good very cold morning to you sir!!! Sitting at 9 degrees currently with a fairly stiff North breeze-no if ands or buts about it-it is cold out this morning!!!

Man, Mother Nature just does not want to show us any love regarding a decent snow event-looks like the storm will be suppressed and doesn't really get its act together untill it hits Louisiana. My last straw of hope is that big snow event of December 2000 when the low was in southern Louisana but still threw enough moisture up here to give us 8 inches-I rememeber you talking about this on your forecast how crazy that was!!! Still holding out hope to pull a rabbit out of a hat!!!!

It appears that latest model solutions want to keep the below normal temps. here till at least next Tuesday before we hit a big warm up for a few days-to be honest, I have lost the LRC-I can't figure out where we are so I'm not sure if these solutions are on the right track or not-well, I'll just keep plugging away and try to learn!!

Whatever the case, when it is all said and done, this has been a very good stretch compared to December and especially to the past two years-didn't get the big snow (if all goes as shown currently) but I still have an ice rink in my back yard that will most likely last until next Wednesday-almost a month-been a while since had ice/snow on the ground for 3 weeks!!! Still hoping/wishing for the one big snow this year-maybe the end of this month/early March-if that were to occur, then this would go down as a great winter indeed!! Even without it, it will have been a very good winter!! Have a great day and stay warm-especially this morning-it is cold out there!!!

Bill in Lawrence
-------------
Bill,

I didn't like the overnight model runs. It is like being punched in the stomach. But, let's see what happens with the morning runs. If it isn't going to snow then don't stay so cold. How can we have this much cold air and not have a snow storm? It will certainly make the non snow lovers out there very happy. The question will be as the pattern shifts a bit next week will the cold air get wiped out like December, or will it be lurking just north and east and be ready to tap into any storm?

Gary

********************************************************What does the weather look like for Thursday evening, flying out of KCI and want to know if I should change my flight

Thank you
Tobias
-------------------------
Tobias,

Right now it looks cold & dry. I would not change a thing.

Jeff

*******************
Gary:

Thanks for the response from earlier. It is indeed frustrating for a snowlover (which I obviously am and I as know you are) when you see the south (Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, souther Kansas et al) get a very decent snow event and we're left with 2 inches at best and high clouds and chilly at worst!!! I guess/think/conjecture from a historical perspective (and the LRC if one thinks about Mid October cold air plunge)it makes sense: from my recollections and memory, when you have a strong dive of arctic air that reaches southern Texas like the models show, we usually are too far North unless the low catches the front. I still have two random thoughts in the back of my mind: 1. That ULL in California seems to be holding together better than the modles have shown-could it be stronger?? 2. Both GFS and NAM have some decent South winds in here at the 850 level for about 12 hours-could they be underdoing the qpf? The lates NAM seems to be trying to drive qpf more north-am I grasping at straws-absolutely!!!! But just something I have thought about-maybe the guidance is a bit off here???

Mother Nature will reveal herself when she is ready-by this time tomorrow, satellite and radar should give us all the clues-thanks again for reading and have a great day!!

Bill in Lawrence who is showing model outputs in class today instead of Latin and the Nigerian Political Economy!!!!!
---------------------------

**************
Ok…I still have faith in the little vort that could. We will get a dusting tomorrow…but I still am thinking Thursday into Friday will be the best show of something sticking. I am still going with 2+ inches with higher amounts to the south. Also, I have faith in the LRC…this should pan out some..
--------------------
Scott,

Well, well, well..........We could end up with nothing to maybe 2 inches. There is hope, but Friday's chance is fading away. Then, the faith in the LRC is strong. This part of the pattern is no surprise. Sometimes one of the cycles gets affected by Arctic air. And, this one is. The long term longwaves are firmly established. The positive tilt to the trough is not helping, but it is as expected. One of the big reasons we went for above average snowfall this season is this part of the pattern. I just didn't think it could be snowless with this much cold air. Maybe it won't be.

Gary

**
Nope sorry, that does not make us non snow lovers happy. I'm with you. If it's going to be this cold then snow and move on. If it's not going to snow then warm back up.

*************
HI GARY-
THIS IS LOOKING A BIT FURTHER INTO LATE FEBRUARY, BUT YOU MENTIONED TO LOOK OUT FOR SOMETHING BIG LATE FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH IN YOUR ORIGINAL WINTER FORECAST. IS THAT STILL A POSSIBILITY?

SUSY
---------------
Susy,

Yes, it is a strong possibility in late February or early March.

Gary

*************
UHM, BILL, STOP IT!!! No early March big snow please, that is when my wedding is and I'm having a bunch of out of town guests coming in and then going on my honeymoon, so PLEASE, wish for the big snow in mid/late March, okay? Also, please stop wishing for snow/cold this weekend, I'm moving into my new home! THANK YOU!
------------------
TJ,

It is up to you! Not us! Just keep willing the snow away this weekend. It seems to be working.

Gary

*******************
Gary,
I think that the cold air will linger for awhile off to the northeast and may help to put us in the zone for clipper systems next week. 850 temps look to remain in the -24 to -30 range in the Upper Midwest. This is a type of weather pattern that we have not seen in quite some time. The 12Z looks interesting for the extended but would prefer a lot more consistency in terms of the potential for northwest flow and clippers. The Wednesday event looks about the same as it did on previous model runs.
Devin