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Long Range Trend & Websites
I promised an update after the 6pm news. If you missed the show it looks like after Friday we will see a stretch of 7-10 with average to below average temps. Probably a lot of days with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens. It would be colder, but I'm counting on a lot of the snow melting on Friday. A true arctic air mass may visit the area around Feb. 1, this could bring the coldest air in several years to Kansas City. Don't get too excited yet...because this will likely change one way or another. Anyway you look at things though, it is going to get cold and stay cold for an extended period.
Now how about snow chances. With each cold front a few flurries are possible. You won't find flurries mentioned in our 7 day at the moment for a couple of reasons. The chances are very small and the fronts will have little to no moisture to work with. After we get past Feb. 1 it looks like the ridge in the west will retreat or retrograde west and allow some pieces of energy to drop into the Southwest U.S. With cold air in place and moisture flowing north the ingredients would be in place for the storms to work with. The best time from looks to be late in the first week of February. This is a long way out but many people have been asking when the next 'good' chance of a storm may occur. This active period would also fit in the LRC.
Now on to my favorite websites. I'll put the sites below after I tell you about each. One of these was created by a friend and former co-worker when I was in Madison. The site is good for those who are interested in weather and want to take some time to explore and surf the weather sites. He broke the site down into categories such as models, satellite, radar, etc. Check it out and ask questions if you need help.
http://weather.alan.shoemaker.name/
The next website is for more advanced weather lovers. Although a couple aspects are great even for casual weather lovers when storms approach. This site puts the weather model information in a numerical output. Many fields are visible such as 2 meter temps(roughly surface temps), precipitation, wind direction, etc. The complex thing about this site is that you can view data for EVERY level of the atmosphere for almost any parameter you can imagine. This site is also tremendous during severe weather. I'll go through and example to get you started. There are several choices to select. Let's leave it on the NAM. Now under station you can put ANY 3 letter weather identifier in there. KC, St. Joe, Lee's Summitt, New York City, Las Vegas, etc. So for Kansas City you could put Kmci or Kmkc. The capital K always needs to be ahead of the 3 letter identifier. Now click submit. Then click on extracted file. Now opens A LOT of numbers. Near the top is the model run time and date. This is the 12Z NAM for Jan 24.
For now just look at this and explore. The 6hr precipitation is what most people will be interested in. When a storm approaches the number for each 6 hour period must be added to get the storm total. So instead of looking at the NAM computer model and saying...there's dark blue over Kansas City...that's about .30" liquid. You can now go directly into the numerical data and see the forecast total.
http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm
This site is kind of complex...so feel free to ask questions.
Jeremy
Posted by jnelson at January 24, 2007 7:41 PM
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Hello, I looked at the first site and, what is Theta-E? I saw the map but it doesnt just quite make sense. I will look at all of the other sites and if I have a question, I will send it.
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Alden,
Check out this site. You'll probably learn more than me trying to explain it. If you have questions let me know.
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/324/
Jeremy
Posted by: Alden at January 24, 2007 8:49 PM
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Check out www.weatherschool.tv !
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Nice site. There are thousands of weather sites out there. Hopefully everyone keeps nbcactionnews.com as their favorite:)
Jeremy
Posted by: Andrew at January 24, 2007 8:59 PM
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Me again, I just checked out the first web site you have displayed and I'M DROOLING that one is cool, I have a new favorite place to view the GFS 500 millibar flow(NCEP LOOPS), the north pacific view is exellent! you can really see the ridge retrograding on the model run as you said! Now I can't wait for the next storm to come so I can follow it with the new tools I can use!!!!!
THANK YOU AGAIN for these web sites.
A very impressed Nick in St. Joe!
Yikes, I almost forgot about the weather cast you are about to do, got to go watch you now, Good Night!!
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Nick,
Those are two of my favorite sites. Right now it is hard to explain the 'complex' site, but when a storm approaches you will love it. All you have to do is type in Kstj for the identifier.
Jeremy
Posted by: Nick Rau at January 24, 2007 10:17 PM
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Jeremy,
Do you think the GFS model is running warm given the potential flow pattern it is forecasting. I think the European model and other models are trending colder. The main concern I see is that the ridge might break down after only a week. Usually, here in the mid-south we also do not see much significant snow when there is a dry north flow. The next few weeks definatly hold some potential for more snow.
Devin
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Devin,
It looks very cold heading into next week. When the core of the cold air arrives a majority of the snow in KC should have melted. With a thin snow pack or non in spots that will moderate the cold air a bit. The next week looks colder than average with very little chance of snow(mainly flurries). When the flow is out of Canada at all levels of the atmosphere it is very tough to get much moisture into the central U.S. If you are hoping for more snow you may have to wait until early February.
Posted by: Devin at January 24, 2007 11:49 PM
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Jeremy:
Good Morning to you sir!!! Chilly winters morning here in Lawrence!!! Temp. of about 20 with clear skies-I'm afraid the snow is going to loose the battle the next two days!!!
Thanks for posting those web sites-Weather Caster is awesome!!!! After listening to you, Gary and the team, I went back and looked at the October 500 ht. maps-I think/guess (insert any descriptive that means don't really know) that it looks very similar to the out puts of the current model runs. I also went and checked surface observations for the month and it looks so similar-(just not the massive warm up we had the first two days of the month-but today and Friday will be warm-awesome!!)-incredible stuff!!!
It looks like the cold is a pretty sure bet-I do believe however that storms etc. will only really be picked up on once the cold air gets entrenched and the models can see how things shake out. It looks like the 06Z GFS wants to retrograde the western ridge a bit west by Thursday which gives us colder air and a chance of a storm squeeking in around Thursday. The Euro still has the cold air centered over the Lakes (I think??) The LRC I think says the big one will be just as the ridge begins to break down and the last cold air plunge comes down ( well, until early March-we had close to an inch on 10-28-29-could this be what the GFS is seeing??) This will be interesting for sure and very fun to follow-I am already excited to watch the front Saturday on the surface maps!!!
Hope things are going well with the little one!!!! Have a great day!!!!
Bill in Lawrence
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Bill,
The little one is doing well...I'm just not getting much sleep. But that's to be expected.
The two websites that I mentioned are both fantastic. The first is a one stop shop for all your weather needs. It links to about every website you may need for models, severe weather, etc.
The second site is more complex...but when a storm approaches I'll go over this site more. The NAM surface parameters towards the bottom gives the actual snow total for the storm...with the ratio figured in. So not only can you get the liquid total for any location in the U.S., you can also see the model snow total with the ratio figured in. A great site!
Jeremy
Posted by: Bill Gollier at January 25, 2007 7:59 AM
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As things are slow now, and with these very good sites...Jeremy, can you do a blog on how to read a sounding? I know aspects of it, but don't have the full understanding...
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Scott,
That's a very good blog topic! I'll talk to Gary and Jeff about this because I want to find some good examples to post pictures of. Right now I don't know how to post pictures to the blog(Gary posted the pictures of my daughters for me).
A sounding blog would be great especially heading into severe weather season. The first website that I posted has a link to soundings across the country. If you love severe weather you will want to see a 'loaded gun' sounding. We'll find some good soundings and try to find a simple way to explain them so everyone can understand the basics of looking at a sounding. We'll also go in depth for the advanced bloggers:)
Thanks for checking in!
Jeremy
Posted by: Scott at January 25, 2007 9:12 AM
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Jeremy, are you guys backing off the arctic outbreak? High temps in the 20's is cold and wintery, but there is a huge difference between 25 and 5. I'm a extreme weather nut, and high's in the 20's don't do much for me unless there is a blizzard. btw, how how is the newborn doing?
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Dave,
The cold air looks to come down in chunks beginning this weekend. Cold Sunday...then around average Monday...then cold Tuesday. You get the idea. We are still looking for the main polar vortex to plunge south sometime around Feb. 1. If that happens we would see highs in the teens. This is around the same time a storm MAY form...so we'll have to keep an eye on things getting more active in days 7-10.
The little one is doing great! Her weight is up to 5lbs 13oz at her checkup yesterday!
Jeremy
Posted by: Dave C. at January 25, 2007 12:05 PM
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What website will provide me with weather data for the mid to late 19th century and first half of the 20th century?
rebecca
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Rebecca,
Check out www.ncdc.noaa.gov
This is the NWS's climate site. They have all the data archieved. Hopefully you can find what you are looking for!
Jeremy
Posted by: Rebecca at January 25, 2007 12:46 PM
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INCREDIBLE, you were not kidding when you said the other site is complex, WOW I don't think I have ever seen so many numbers! I will have to take time to learn about that one. As for this morning there was some neat low level fog in St. Joe, especially near the river and just to the east of the college! I know that its over a week away and it will change but man the GFS really brings that cold blast in hard, it was predicting 850 millibar temps around -24 to -27 degrees Celsius next weekend
Thanks for your time.
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,
The cold air does look impressive. We'll have to see if the really cold air continues to show up for around Feb. 1 in the next few days.
The website you are referring to is filled with numbers...but if you focus on a few things you'll love the site. When a storm approaches again I'll point out a few things. For now just play around and see what you understand and don't understand. The severe weather parameters aren't worth looking at until this spring or when some storms roll around.
Jeremy
Posted by: Nick Rau at January 25, 2007 12:46 PM
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Jeremy,
I know its only the end of January but for those of us who are anxiously awaiting spring and warmer weather, is there any long range trends indicating when some warmer weather might be coming here again. Something on the horizon to give us hope?
Thanks
Jeff
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Jeff,
The next 7-10 days after Friday look average to below average for temps. MAYBE in mid-Feb. we will have a nice warm-up.
Jeremy
Posted by: Jeff at January 25, 2007 2:36 PM
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Jeremy - dog here - this dog doesn't find Arctic air "bracing" or anything else - just frigid and unpleasant. However, I suppose we lucked out last year and are paying for it now - heating bills will be most unpleasant to look at for a month or two.
One thing good about this snow **&^ (stuff) is that the trees are getting plenty of moisture this winter unlike last. The trend of the Gulf opening up easily I have noticed, and this will, I think, play out into Spring, and we will probably have a wetter and more active Spring than we have seen for a while - just a gut feeling and watching weather for 30 years out here on the plains.
Bring on March...
Later,
Dog
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Dog,
I'm with you...bring on March! I've lived in cold my whole life and like anything that resembles above average temps. I'm still sticking with the chance of a very impressive arctic outbreak in early February. The latest data continues to support it...but if there is no snow on the ground it may modify a bit before reaching KC. Thanks for checking in!
Jeremy
Posted by: StormDog at January 25, 2007 4:49 PM
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