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Morning Update
The GFS and the NAM remain consistent. The NAM insists on taking the storm north. The GFS brings it just south of KC. This is the solution we want to get a nice 2 to 5 inch snowfall. Winter Storm Watches are up for our viewing area Saturday night and Sunday morning. The weather service says 3 to 6 but it could be closer to two inches if the NAM Solution pans out.
Below I'll show you both graphics.
First the NAM,
Click to enlarge
Now the GFS for the same time period.
Look at the maps carefully, particularly the Xs over Missouri. The NAM has the strongest part of the storm centered near Falls City, Nebraska, while the GFS has it closer to Clinton. 150 miles makes a lot of difference when it comes to snow forecasting. Again if the NAM is right we get two inches of snow, if the GFS is right then 5 inches of snow.
What do you all think? Do you see it? Do you want snow? Let me know. Watch the blog, the Today Show and Kansas City Live for updates and of course Gary tonight at 5 & 6. He'll have at least two more sets of new data and his snowfall accumulation forecast.
Have a great day,
Brett
Posted by at January 19, 2007 5:34 AM
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Our family wants a lot of snow! The sleds have been getting lonely these past couple of winters. What do you think our chances are up here in Leavenworth?
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Bobbi,
It looks good, I would put you all in the 2 to 5 range along with KC.
Brett
Posted by: Bobbi at January 19, 2007 5:49 AM
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Bret I hope we get alot of snow we are long over due for a good ol storm. why are all the stations still saying something diff on them about the storm when you all are looking at the same storm?
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Nikie,
Hi, its because of the different tracks the storm could take. Maybe some are biting on the north track, which brings less snow and mixes in more rain.
Brett
Posted by: nikie at January 19, 2007 6:31 AM
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Brett:
Of course we want snow... But, my 9 and 7 year old daughters say that it would definately be better if it came on School Days and not on the weekends. Can you get that handled (lol)?
Bill Straka
Olathe KS
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Bill,
That's a tall order! I think it needs to snow around longer on Sunday to get the day off Monday. We'll see what happens.
Brett
Posted by: Bill at January 19, 2007 6:35 AM
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Morning Brett and the weather team. Here around Topeka they are saying 3-6 maybe more maybe less. It is good to get this precip. Another source I follow closely, the Topeka NWS, whom I e-mail with questions occassionally is saying in about 8-10 days another Artic Outbreak and another storm. It seems to fit into the LRC pattern. If we do get another storm in 8-10 days then this pattern is similar to January-Feb-1974 in my research I am doing about ice and snow storms here in Kansas. Have fun tracking this storm. Michael/Topeka
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Thanks Michael, I don't know if it fits the LRC but I've done some climatological research that suggests there is at least a 30% chance of snow on February 5th. We'll see.
Brett
Posted by: michael huffman at January 19, 2007 7:51 AM
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Bring on the snow!! The more the better! I will keep my fingers, and even toes crossed that we get more than 2 inches here in South Overland Park.
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At least that if not more.
Brett
Posted by: jill at January 19, 2007 7:58 AM
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Weather Team
Is this next storm going to be all snow is there a possiblity of ice? Didn't get to see you this mornig as I left for work before you were on.
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Jason,
Hi, its colder this time through all levels of the atmosphere, so it should be all snow. Except, there could be a period of rain at the start or at the end Sunday around noon when the temperatures are close or just above the freezing mark.
Brett
Posted by: Jason at January 19, 2007 7:59 AM
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Hi brett
Is there still a chance we will more than
5 inches of snow?
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Kyle,
Yes, but the storm has to take the right path and consider this, all the models underplayed the amount of moisture that really fell last weekend.
Brett
Posted by: kyle at January 19, 2007 8:09 AM
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Brett, we have been so hard up for getting any snow around here for the past few years...it would be nice to see a 5 inch snowstorm. Let it snow!!! Mark
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Posted by: Mark at January 19, 2007 8:10 AM
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WE WANT SNOW! I haven’t even told my kids. I am afraid it will fall apart or pass us in Parkville. They will be surprised if it happens!
Thanks for the hard work!
Lisa
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Lisa,
I am the same way. It crushes my 5 year old when I start talking about snow and it doesn't materialize. I've been waiting until it starts before I tell him there's a chance.
Brett
Posted by: Lisa at January 19, 2007 8:13 AM
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Hi Brett!
How much snow do you think we'll get up North in Maryville? We almost always seem to get short changed!
Thanks!
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Sue,
It looks good, you should get into the 3 to 5 inch range, but a slight change and you guys could end up in the dry slot of the storm and get less then 2 inches of snow.
Brett
Posted by: Sue at January 19, 2007 8:21 AM
how much will parkville get?
Posted by: shannon at January 19, 2007 9:09 AM
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