**************
A Chiefs win and an artic outbreak! What a great week to look forward to. later, ryan...
---------------------
Ryan,

We can still hope as the game is about to begin. If the Chiefs lose let's at least get the other 50%.

Gary

*******************
Gary,
The winter weather patterns in the past used to produce clipper systems that would give us a couple inches of snow. We can not seem to get the small snowfalls that we used to. If we do not see snowfall from this storm I think our winter season is looking very bad for additional snowfall.
Devin
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Devin,

It will still depend on the weather pattern. And, this pattern isn't able to produce the small snows.

Gary

********************
Hello, by looking at the 23-26 blogs in Nov, you're right it is like this time. Although the models are not showing a very southerly track, like last time, but they are showing an ice storm. This does not make sense to me. If the models are showing an ice storm here, wouldn't they also show an upper low somewhere. I mean the models,like you said, aren't happening on the models, but couldn't some new data come out later today and possibly show the storm take a more southerly turn, and then come here and pound the city with some major snowfall? My last comment is this,since we are in a 42 day cycle, my guess is we will see something like this again on Sunday, February 25.
---------------------
Alden,

It will continue to look differently every day. But, by the time we get to Tuesday or Wednesday then we can rely more on the specifics of the data.

Gary

************
We can only hope that they can pull it off, it would be a fitting tribute to Lamar Hunt if they could win it all.
----------------------
Jere,

The season is over now. Oh well!

Gary

*****************
Gary,
With the sudden drop in temperature, is there any chance of some time of severe weather as the front comes through?
Also, you were able to make the skies red over Indianapolis today. Any chance you can make the skies Giants' blue over Philadelphia tomorrow?
---------------------------
Matt,

No severe weather out of this set up. It is just not warm enough. I hope your Giants win.

Gary

****************
Gary,

What do you think about the "other" blog basically using your weather theory and saying in December they "knew" it would get cold in the middle of January, talking about a pattern between cold and warm stretches, etc., etc? On one hand I you could take it as a compliment, but on the other hand they're basically using your hard work and your theory for their attempt at success. I know its a topic that draws a lot of heat in the blog, but just curious to your thoughts...

Tim in GW
----------------------
Tim,

I haven't read their blog in months. I just don't even want to know. It is exactly the same with forecasting. We just forecast much better if we don't even know what the competition is doing. With this said, I firmly believe they are using my theory which is fine with me. But, they would never admit it. Until a year or so ago they never mentioned or used long term patterns at all.

So, let's let it go. We are the experts. Is this too strong of a statement.

Gary

******************
Gary:
WOW! If anyone ever doubted your theory all they have to do is look at the current GFS for the 150 hour and then look back at your entry for November 27th with the GFS that you posted then. It is the exact same shots only different dates. Of course I am and have always been a believer.
--------------------
Kevin,

It really is fascinating.

Gary

***************
So, how about this forecast for next week ... Chiefs win = red; Cold weather = blue; now all we need is some white (=snow)!

Very exciting pattern!

Also, do you know why the typekey identity thing isn't working?
-------------------
Richard,

I am not sure what the typekeyy thing is? Let's work on getting some white.

Gary

************
Hi Gary,

Sorry I missed the bloggers meeting...I wish I could have made it and it sounds like everyone really had a good time.

Are we still on track for an ice storm???? I know mositure is going to be in place, but will the cold air? When cold air comes in, dosen't that usually mean that the air will evaporate the icy conditions??? Does this make sense??? :-) I would like to see SNOW instead of ICE...but it sounds like we are going to have ice first then maybe, maybe, snow. Hope! HOPE!

Thank you for the great work you and your weather team do. You are the BEST!!!!

Brian in St. Joseph, MO
---------------
Brian,

We will see you at the next one! We better have a storm later in the week.

Gary

*********
Hello Gary,
So what do you think, we will see a major ice storm next Fri.? Or still too early to tell for sure?
Anne
------------------
Still too early Anne,

Gary

*********
Well i am very very depressed if we do not get snow in Appleton CIty next week i will not be able to stand it.
-------------
Daniel,

How much did you get in November?

Gary

**************
"We are the experts. Is this too strong of a statement."

I think your head is getting to big for your own good. You're still a person who can be wrong 50 percent of the time (many times you are compared to the others) and still keep their job.
--------------------
Jeff,

I am merely siting that others may be using my theory. I have to consider myself an expert, especially when it comes to my theory. As far as your statement regarding my inaccuracy is concerned, take any profession and ask yourself how many mistakes does an individual make during a given day on the job? For instance, the other day I was at a restaurant and a friend of mine noted that our server made at least three crucial mistakes during the process of waiting on our table. It was this friend of mine that made that analogy to my job. The only difference is slight mistakes in my job are broadcast for everyone to see.

Gary

*******************
Gary,

The typekey thing is at the bottom of the blog page where it says "Post a comment" and then "If you have a TypeKey identity, you can sign in to use it here."

I do have an identity and it lets me sign in, but then it says "The site you're trying to comment on has not signed up for this feature. Please inform the site owner."

Just doing my duty. :)
---------------------
Rick,

I will let our webmaster know about this. Thanks.

Gary

*****************
"We are the experts. Is this too strong of a statement."
Ingore it. Once again, you just said something you thought thats all. You're right you aren't wrong 50% of the time. And if they are using your theory-- well thats their problem if they cant figure it out themselves so they take the easy way out. To me your wrong 9% of the time. Yes they do make mistakes. Its like tomorrow someone could say we'll have 25" of snow in 1 hour. Its not your fault. We've just sometime gotta think before we say it.
Anyway Great Work.
------------------
Alden,

Thanks!

Gary

***********
Gary,
I can not seem to get streaming Weather Plus to work. The screen is appearing black when I try to play it.
Devin
************

Devin,

I've had that problem at home too. What cable system do you have? I would ask your provider...because we've looked into it and it is not on the station's end. I get very frustrated when that happens too.

Jeremy

******************
Gary,
I just wanted to say thanks again for such a wonderful meeting you and your team put on. I told everyone at work today and all of my patients at the hospital. They were all quite impressed and all agreed that you're the one they watch. So, word of mouth..and mine is quite big...will help with the station's overall ratings! As much as I really want some snow soon, I'd hate for you to have to miss your ski trip. Hopefully we will all get our way! Enjoy the rest of the weekend.
Lisa, RN
-------------------
Lisa,

Keep spreading the word! Thank you. We should know a lot more about this storm within 48 hours.

Gary

***********************
All I know is this is the 5th winter here since I moved from Florida, and each one seems to have been a bit odd in one fashion or another! This year's oddity seems to be the warm trends, but when are we going to get the oddly cold winter? From talking to others, it seems that winters have been really quite mild around here for the past 15 years or so. Are we in some sorta cycle with mild winters, or is this the way it is in our area now adays?
--------------------
Brian,

We just have to take it one year at a time. This winter's pattern is completely different than last year's, but it is the same results......warm!

Gary

**********
hello gary this air mass coming in is it going to hang around acouple of weeks or acouple of days thanks

************

John,

Likely more than a couple of days, but less than 2 weeks. This may resemble the cold air that arrived in early December. That lasted about 8-9 days.

Jeremy

***********
Even though the Chiefs didn't win, hopefully we can get some snow as a consolation prize.
---------------
Marlina,

Let's hope so!

Gary

******************
Question about model output. Here is the forecast from tonight's 0Z GFS for MCI for 7pm next Saturday.

Surface temp: -6.4C / 850MB temp: -2.6C / 12hr precip: 0.54" / 1000-500MB thickness: 545.

What kind of precip will fall if that verifies? I've read that 540 thickness is the rain/snow demarcation but also that 0C at 850MB is rain/snow. These numbers don't fit that pattern.
-------------------
Rick,

If the conditions you are showing exist and the thickness is still 545 then there is a layer in there somewhere that could very well be above freezing. It could snow with a 545 thickness if that warmer layer not a crucial layer.

Gary

************
What are the winds you are looking at over the next few days?

************

Monday: SW/NW 20-35 mph
Tuesday: NW/W 15-25 mph
Wednesday: SW 15-25 mph

Thursday and Friday will depend on the location of the front...but those days may also be windy.

Jeremy

************
It's almost spooky looking at the similarities between late Nov. and now!
the 06Z GFS wanted to keep the freezing line just to our north for a long time but this is just one run and it will change, anyway arctic air is dense and it usually has an edge in sliding southward, for example, last time through "this storm" the cold air was expected to arrive on Wednesday the 29th, but it slid down a little faster and the front arrived Tuesday night and it was cold by Wednesday morning.
BTW, 72 in NEW YORK CITY yesterday!?!WOW
The North East is practically skipping winter altogether!!!
Thanks for your time.
Nick in(chilly)St. Joe!
----------------------
Nick,

Let's try not to analyze the specifics of later this week so precisely this early. It certainly will become possible to do this by later today or Tuesday as we get a bit closer. I hate it when we say freezing rain on a day 5 days away, then it moves to the next day and then the next. So, this is why it is better to just say between Friday and Sunday we have a chance of a winter storm. Then, by Tuesday or Wednesday we can make it a bit more precise.

Gary

****************
Why cant we ever get snow i mean really i hope it does and your the best weather man on tv your almost always right.
----------------------
Jacob,

Maybe this weekend?

Gary

***********
Gary please update i cant wait any longer. How is the storm looking for next week. I know it will happen but i dont know what it will produce.

*************

Daniel,

Gary will post his thoughts on Monday, I just updated the blog this evening. Check it out.

Jeremy

*************
Wow...I think I remember hearing Brett say that more than a few days out, over 20-30% chance of precip, you must be very sure. At this point, the only way you could be sure is using the LRC. Is this the case? 50%? Gary, are you going skiing? Forget the models, just watch to see if Gary is going skiing!!!!
***************

Scott,

We use everything possible to make forecasts. The LRC & various models are pointing to precip. later this week. That's why at the moment we are at 50%. The storm may come out in a few parts again like the November 30 storm. So some days will have a higher chance of precip. than others. I'm sure Gary and Jeff will address this beginning on Monday. Gary's trip is still up in the air.

Jeremy

****************
How much ice are the models predicting?
----------------
Charles,

I wouldn't even think about it until around Wednesday. At this point all we know is that it will turn much colder.

Gary

***********
weather team,

What is the latest on this storm? Also with temps in the low to mid 20's, shouldnt it be SNOW? Also is this storm still looking like the one on Nov.30? That storm to had ice along wit it.

Andy
*************

Andy,

The storm will resemble the November 30 storm...but obviously no two storms are alike:)

Jeremy

**********
WeatherTeam,
I was wondering if you could give us a rough idea of who would be getting this storm that might be coming in on Friday-Saturday? I live in Kearney and I would sure love to see some snow this weekend. I will keep my fingers crossed for all of Kansas City Metro area.

Thank you hope you all had a good weekend,
Danie
**********

Danie,

Everyoune in the viewing around could see something out of this storm. The questions is where does the rain/ice/snow line set up. Hopefully it isn't quite as sharp of a cut off as the November 30 storm!

Jeremy

***********
what happened to winter? Is it gone or what if this storm happens then i think we'll meet the 25 inches expected for this winter i thought more of around 30 to 35 though.
---------------
Jacob,

My point exactly! We have these chances. I thought we would have more chances than we have had, but it has just been too warm. The models are showing a few chances in the next two weeks. So, if we are going to get snow this winter the best chance may be arriving soon.

Gary