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Gary,

Great work over the past week keeping us informed. With the LRC, this snow storm was a drizzle storm last time through as mentioned on the blog. We got a wee bit more than drizzle this time. Hooray for us snowloving transplanted Alaskans! I havent had the time to see what happened over the next 10-15 days follwing the drizzle storm. What took place, and what might happen? If I recall right, we were cold, moist and blustery followed by a warm spell and then the big snow of late Nov. Maybe I am mixing up weeks, but it seems as though that's what happened.

I have been fascinated by the LRC and the way the weather gets in a repetitive pattern. I would love to find the time to do similar studies of Alaskan weather. Having grown up there, and intending to return, it would help to know what sort of weather could be happening weeks in advance.

Again, great work, research and teaching by you and your crew.
----------------------
Kenq,

Thanks! Let us know if you have any questions. We will talk about the next 10 to 15 days in more detail during the next few days.

Gary

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How does the potential cold snap the first week of February fit into the LRC? Also, the snow vision tool is great! Really enjoy the blog.
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Joe,

It really fits the pattern that set up in October. Let's see what happens and then compare.

Gary

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Hello Gary,
What does Saturday look like I see you have a chance of precip, will it be like the last two weekends, Thanks and have a great day!
Anne
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Anne,

Not a great chance right now.

Gary

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Around 12 inches total in NORTH Grain Valley, MO

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Pleasanton KS (Linn County) 27 inches of snow (total) and 2 inches of sleet from the weekend before last. Hard to believe I know but there is a dramatic difference just between us and Lacygne KS, who is only 12 miles north of us. I guess we were lucky enough to have those bands come right over us during all three storms. Great job this weekend.
Monica
-------------------
Thanks Monica!

***************
Blue Springs: 14.7"
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David,

Thanks for the report. Is it over, or are we literally only half way through?

Gary

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Hi - another installment from my weather stuff:

January 20 - 21, 2006

The very next week, another winter storm raised it’s icy head and headed our way, so that, by Friday January 19th, there were forecasts of accumulating snows, from all of New Mexico into southwestern Texas, and then over much of Oklahoma into all of Missouri, and parts of Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska!

Winter Storm Warnings covered New Mexico, parts of west Texas into Oklahoma for heavy snow. In New Mexico, up to a foot was predicted, with 18 inches in the southern mountain areas, and up to 8 inches in Albuquerque, with 10 inches up in the eastern foothill suburbs. In Texas up to a foot, possibly 15 inches along the Caprock east of Lubbock, was thought possible.
Oklahoma was to experience up to 10 inches across northern reaches of that state.

For us, there was a Winter Storm Watch, although the path of the system still had some uncertainty, with the current thinking bringing it just south of Kansas City sometime early Sunday. The NWS noted this “Upper level low clearly evident…churning across northern Baja…models indicating a little stronger and continued deep isentropic lift (I liked the sound of that!) to develop Saturday night into Sunday morning…fairly widespread snowfall will accompany this moisture stream…� Since the storm was to be somewhat progressive, snow amounts at this juncture were kept to around a maximum of 6 inches in places.

The following day, Saturday, the 20th, I awoke to gray skies, which gave the day a dreary aspect. There wasn’t anything falling from the skies when I left for work, but upon arriving, around 1500, the snow began falling, and became rather steady posthaste. The NWS downgraded our watch to an advisory. This left me disgusted thinking to myself whether some forecasters seemed incapable of ordering a drunken stupor at a frat party. However, it turned out that my ignorance was truly exemplified! We received 4 inches of heavy, wet snow, which was within their forecast total.

The NWS discussion noted that “the initial snow across the area will result
from warm-air-advection and isentropic lift�, continuing past midnight. Thereafter, as a dry-slot intruded into our snowfall, rather rudely, I thought, any further snow would be caused by dynamic forcing along with frontogenetic forcing, but the question was, would it overcome the “dry-punch�? Areas northwest of the “punch� could see a bit more snow with a wrap-around effect.

As of 1730, an inch had accumulated at the station. Trees were coated like crooked twists of gingerbread with the pristine wet, white snow - pine trees with their delicate needles coated by white added to the frosty “festive� look. Many roll-overs were being reported on the scanner, one of them a “multiple roll-over�, somewhere east of Lees Summit.

From 1800 until 2300, periods of moderate to heavy snow swirled down, giving the distant yellow-orange sodium vapor lights a filmy effect, and the flakes under the parking lot lights looked like moths swarming around the lights in summer, a frenzy of action without purpose.

When I melted the rain-gauge, I’d collected .39 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation – about right for a 10:1 frozen-liquid ratio.

Cheers,
Dog (PS I am ready for sun, warmer temps, and convective action -enough with the frozen stuff. I will admit it was interesting, but not my preferred sort of weather)

********
Gary and weather team,
You continue to be right on with your forecasts. You do a good job at explaining exactly how the weather is occuring and what must happen for certain conditions to occur. You and your team are the only reason that I watch NBC Action News-I just want to know what's going to happen next. Weather is one of the most exciting and ever so changing things. Keep up the good work!
-------------------------
Jeff,

Thank you so much!

Gary and the NBC Action Weather Team

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Gary have fun in vegas I just went in November had a great time.. long time fan of action weather new at the blog can anyone tell me what nam gfs lrc and lol stand for need some help Jerry from the northland.
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Jerry,

NAM stands for North American Mesoscale, and GFS means Global Forecast System. LRC is my theory as named by the bloggers and stands for Lezak's Recurring Cycle.

Gary

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We left Leavenworth last week, after the ice storm, to escape the cold and snow. Arrived in Tucson yesterday and awakened to SNOW in Tucson. 1-3" and almost shut down the city. Went out shopping this afternoon and a beautiful day for us Kansans!

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Diane,

We just showed some of the video from Tucson.

Gary

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Hi weather team,

I have kept a weather diary this winter and Harrisonville has gotten 18.5 inches of snow and sleet so far.
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Brent,

Keep track the rest of the season. Thanks!

Gary

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Hello WX+ team, after seeing what Jeff M. wrote, I thought I would do something like that, except different. Since you last posted your Weather Ratings, which by a GREAT merical, your lead INCREASED, has your lead increased more, or had it decreased? I have looked at all of the other stations, for their 7-Day Forecast, and your's, and I know you dont care but, Yours is by far, totally different than theirs. Even the 2nd place station (wich I think I know) is even close! Now, thats a real weather team. Just thought I'd let you know. Oh, and later tonight, if I have the chance, I have some information for you. I wont say them on the blog, because it might spark a debate. I dont want that. How can I get that to you personally, if you want to see them and how great the difference in lead is? You'll be surprised, (I hope.). Keep up the Great work!
---------------------------
Alden,

Email me at lezak@nbcactionnews.com

Thanks for the information.

Gary

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Hey Gary total for winter at Appleton City is 24 inches of snow sleet ice accumulation.
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Daniel,

Thank you. I just posted it!

Gary

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Trenton has had thus far.. 2.5" of sleet and 5.1" inches of snow for a total of 7.6" of sleet/snow this winter.
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Glen,

Thank you! Finally, you are in the game. Maybe you will get hit by one of the late season storm systems and then catch up.

Gary

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I made a snow woman this week-end with the beautiful snow we received out here in Easton, KS. How do I e-mail it to you please?

Tx.
SHERRY
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Sherry,

Send it to me at lezak@Nbcactionnews.com I can't wait to see it.

Gary

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StormDog, Nice Summary...I enjoy your writings!

As far as this weekend, Gary..is it the frontal pressure that you think will disrupt the vort from the SW? Just curious...

Also..even as far out as the GFS, it shows new control of the Great Lakes low...I think the cold is here to stay...I don't see any abnormally warm days..but do see some abnormally cold days. I think I am still on target with a cold end of Jan and a cold Feb....seasonable or cooler than seasonable.
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Scott,

As it gets closer it really appears that we could lock in. But, I am still patiently waiting to see for sure. Remeber in December we thought it could lock in. Then it didn't happen. There is more snow cover and this subtle difference could keep things blocked up.

Gary

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I would say that combined with the sleet/Ice/snow event of last weekend, The about .30 of an inch that we had on New Years Eve, and this last storm I would say we are closer to 6 inches of "snow" in St. Joe, By the way Great job on forcasting the snow right on the head! This next part of the pattern looks cold but being on the back side of the huge trough, we might be "dry", then again there is that southern branch, but will it be completely overwhelmed by the strong northern branch of the jet diving straight from Siberia???
Do you think we are in for "windy" clipper systems from this?
Thanks for your time and accuracy.
Nick in (white) St. Joe!
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Nick,

We will have to see how it ends up looking next week. I think there is the potential for a big storm, even though it isn't showing up right now.

Gary

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Gary, you had no idea what you were getting into with this blog, did you? It is very informative and quite entertaining as well. But I'm with "Storm Dog", bring on the warmer weather of spring. Can't wait to smell that sweet smell of freshly cut grass! Greg, in Olathe.
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Greg,

This is what is so great about winter. And, a colder stretch. It will make us appreciate the warmer weather that much more.

Gary

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Hey Gary. Gary from SW Missouri here. Still without power since Friday night, January 12th. Hopefully we get some sun to melt this stuff tomorrow. Wish we had an informative blog down this way...
-----------------------
Gary,

I can't even imagine not having power for that long. Good luck.

Gary

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WOW, the great dissappearing Gary;) You guys really need to find out what caused that and use it for a Halloween effect next year!!!LOL
The snow creatures are really cool to!
Good night,
Nick in St. Joe!
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Nick,

I forgot about that. I was concentrating so hard that by the time I got back to the set and no one said anything I had completly forgot that the special affect happened. Now, today I must go look at the tape. For those of you who weren't watching the 10 PM weathercast near the beginning when I got to the wall I disappeared, but an outline of my body was still there. It was a cool affect that lasted, maybe 3 seconds.

Thanks for reminding me Nick.

Gary

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Gary:

Good evening sir!!!

Well, my 10 cent weather head has been active again!!! (Groan!!) I still have yet to look at a model; however, I looked at 3 things: current water vapor imagery, temperatures in Alberta and the NWT, and 500 ht. maps from mid October until yesterday to try and gleam/figure out for myself what may happen over the next month or so. Please proceed with caution!!!!!

First of all, it appears on the WV that Canada is once again about to be flooded with some Pacific air though it does not seem as extreme as in December-the temperatures are indicative of this as they are above normal, but Yellowknife does not seem to be as much above normal compared to average as December and Edmonton while way above today seems to be leveling back off to just about normal.

To the 500 ht. maps and the LRC (or to the Bat Mobile-if the LRC were a car, it would be the Bat Mobile!!!)-just absolutely amazing, amazing stuff (if I am reading these correctly) I started at 10-20-06 where we had 500 hts. Of around 5499 (extreme for October)-then we had the cold shot around 10-31 (very cold Halloween night)-fast forward to 11-29-06: the first winter episode of the season-42 days after 10-20; this sets in for about 8 days with the upper low on 12-12 but it comes through as the block is breaking down. Then comes 12-25: the clipper of Christmas-but the block does not hold and it is in and out-fast forward to 1-12-07: the third massive block of the 42 day cycle and our second major winter episode-this locks in a bit longer as we are longer into the season and stronger cold air in Canada-however, just like on 12-12, we have the upper low come across on 1-19-07 and get lucky (catch lightening in a bottle) because the block is again breaking down-however, there is more cold air lingering as we are in January instead of late November-however, the 500 ht. maps from 12-15 and yesterday are incredibly similar; the block is slowly breaking down. If we do indeed have another cold shot early next week as I have read on the blog, it fits in perfectly with the clipper of 12-25-about 13 or so days after the major block of every 40 or so days. There was also a cut off low in October that coeinsides with the December events. There are only two constants that I think I have found: 1. the Bermuda high has been there since October and has never really let up (I think a major reason for the East Coast lack of winter so far) 2. There is a lack of long term blocking in the Northern Latitutdes-esp. in the Eastern Pacific.

My 10 cent thoughts are that we may very well not be nearly as warm compared to average than most of December and early January based on the fact that Canada will not be as warm compared to average as they were thus we may have some colder air to work with from say 1-28-2-20 than we did in December and early January and could have some good set ups for snow-However, the LRC screams (to me) that the blocking that has set up over Western Canada every 42 days will once again break down just as it did in December and November only to come roaring back around the end of February and early March. I don’t see us setting up for a long period of very below average/massive arctic out breaks (as the EURO and GFS were advertising last week)-the LRC just says no.

The main reason I have written this is to try and map out in my mind how the LRC has worked this year and then to put it into writing. I am not sure if this analysis is even correct-however, from what I see on the past 500 ht. maps over North America with my limited knowledge, the LRC is really just flat out amazing-I mean it is all there-the similarities in 500 maps from yesterday and 12-15 is down right spectacular.

Please disregard posting this on the BLOG if it is too long and/or too confusing. I was going to send it to you via e-mail but was not sure how you felt about that idea. I just can not get over the LRC-amazing stuff for sure!!!! As always, thanks for reading and I hope this made some sense-sometimes I get way too excited when I write and get carried away!!!! Oh really I hear you saying!!!! LOL!!! Have a great and fantastic evening/night!!! Back to my day job-well, I guess since my agreement with Mother Nature expires tomorrow I’ll prob. Look at the Euro and GFS………

Long Winded Bill from Lawrence

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Gary,
We need to impose a word limit for Bill! Just kidding....
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Ryan,

It's O.K., as long as nothing bad is in there. It is up to the blogger to weed through what they want to read.

Gary

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Bill, great analysis! This coinsides to a degree with what I first started as the SMC [Scott Mini Cycle]...The main difference is as you are focusing on the mini cycles in the LRC of the main features relating to blocking and temps, and I focused on vorts/and cyclical patterns of storms coming through the area. Both of these patterns are valid in the LRC. Within the LRC, there are smaller cycles that all work within the LRC. As we better understand and map these mini cycles, we will better understand the long range pattern. I tried to point this out in October, but did not articulate it correctly. Bill, do you have maps and graphics to describe what you see? I have some for the original SMC stuff I did...I think I would like to merge these together, and map to the LRC, additionally, some of the analysis Devin has done with the ENSO/AMO stuff would be interesting to blend in as well...that would be pretty cool. Additionally, it would really increase the influence and accuracy of the effects of the LRC in my opinion.

Gary, do you have similar type analysis for past years? Or do you just have the 500s for each day? I think if you took one year, and got the patterns down to these levels, you would see greater acceptance of your theory. Or..perhaps its best you keep it to yourself for your advantage? Dunno... I think the cat is out of the bag now...I think we understand enough of it now, that we can do this level of analysis.

Gary...team...thoughts?
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Scott,

I think there is something to the SMC within the LRC. One year, I think it was 2002-2003, there was a 10 day stretch where we had three storm systems back to back to back and they repeated three times during the winter. Two of the times were big storm systems and one time they were dysfunctional. But, the three storm systems that repeated the second time through were like in reverse order. It was like a SMC rotating through but right on schedule in the LRC. Does this make sense?

Anyway, next week could be very interesting. I don't want cold and dry, I am hoping for at least some storm system, with the possibility of a big one.

Gary

I love that snow penguin!!!

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Gary.. Bill in Ks need a little more help Bill in you essay WV EURO LOL NWT and 500HT what do they stand for and where can I find thi info ...... The new blogger from the northland jerry thanks to anyone that can help
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Jerry,

WV is wave, Euro is European model, 500HT is 500 mb heights and LOL is LAUGH OUT LOUD. NWT????

Gary

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Gary:

Have a great trip to Las Vegas-you so much deserve a trip!!!! I hope you get a good chance to relax!!!

I hope I did not step over the line with that last BLOG-I will try in the future to be less "wordy"!! I was just so excited with what I saw that I just had to share it-if that makes sense. Of course in the end, I'm not even sure if I have seen the correct things or not!!

Thanks to Scott for the compliment and kind words. I got the maps from the Plymoth State site-they have past 500, 850, surface etc. back to 1999 and it is free-awesome site!!! I will try and post the link later as I don't have it on my computer at work. Thanks again-have a great trip-I will be more "economical" in my writing!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Express yourself anyway you want. If you have something to say, then go for it. Don't feel guilty.

Gary

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Gary..looking at the 96hr...tell me again, why this scenerio does not give us light snow. Vort in N. Tx, cold air, 700 RH with moisture?

What am I missing?
-------------------------
Scott,

It isn't going to happen because I won't be here. Nothing is allowed to happen while I am gone. Anyway, I just don't think it has a chance. It is small, caught in a changing pattern and will likely pass well south of here. This is why to me it isn't a big deal. But, it is only Tuesday!

Gary